目前日期文章:201306 (8)

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My Dear American people:

  It is the golden moment to see China finally wake up from its long-unawaken punch party. And it is the golden moment for you to help China to be a more civilized nation. It is time for Americans for find something new to trade with China even though they seems not to respect the intellectual property rights. I still think China has to change. China will face the same issue that more underdeveloped nations will try to copy the China's everything after several years to come. It is inevitable and no one can stop it.

  China lately finally realize it has to trim down its financial system, especially those ones with terrible record to inflate everything from house to precious herb. It is time to wake up China that it just can not get used to it anymore.

  I have to remind you that China is a society of communism. Everything people have can be taken back to the state if the government thinks that is right. In China, might is right. To be honest, I am not totally disagreed with it since there are always something unthinkable happening in China that make people suffer. Maybe the redistribution is good for them. Lately, everyone in China seems to be the slave of something, from house, precious metal, coal mines and important necessities. It does not raise their living standard but let them be the slave of their souls. Everyone in China wants to be richer but gets even worse than used to be. They take too much burden on house rents and other unnecessaries. It has to be solved and they just have no time to wait.


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My Dear American people:

  Please do not say this time is different because it is not!! Please remeber what happens in those horrible years when both stock and bond go down. It takes several years to rebuild the faith. And it takes several years to have those markets on the right track. I know the punch party is over and everyone is still in drunk. But you have to have a crystally clear mind as this time will not be different. I have to say again that the emerging markets are in the danger of deflation even though we see their sovereign bonds go down. The U.S.A. may be in the position of disinflation if you do not help theose Americans with heavily debts. The market may not go up but to go down more than we know. If you do not try to solve and answer the market asking, the situation may get even worse. Everyone is afraid of the deflation may happen in the States if all of Americans just lose their faith NOW. It should be remined that those kind of horrible ghost stories are just to come AGAIN.


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My Dear American people:

  This time is serious as we see the global markets crash down. This time, all of us have to face the consequence that even American markets can not get away from the disaster. I really worry about the contagion effect and do worry about it just happen on all of us. I think Americans should feel sorry about Mr. Bernanke as he is not aged but will be unemployed in six months. He just can not go back to Princeton when the teaching job market is tight. Mr Bernanke still has the mortgage to pay and still has to take responsible for his family. I think the U.S.A. is getting better under those sound monetary policies and Mr. Bernanke does a good job. He should not be disposed this time when the U.S.A. still need the one to help making sound decision about its monetary policy. I think others who are eager to replace Mr. Bernanke should abandon this kind of thought. And Mr. Bernanke should not be unemployed this time when he just make a big contribution to the economy of world.It is ironic,you know. When the one helps us to get through, but everyone turn their back on him!!  

  Mr. Bernanke makes big contributions to the economy of the whole world, not just the U.S.A. He does take those credits of those years in the U.S.A. And Mr. Obama should not dispose him like used tissue. Mr. Obama should show some respects to Mr. Bernanke and let him stay in the Fed for another years. The US-rescue job has not ended yet and there are a lot of things have to be done. Mr Obama should not consider others to replace Mr. Bernanke's position.

  To lay off Mr. Bernanke is a cold blood thing I have ever seen. To be honest, it is unthinkable. Let Mr Bernanke stay in the Fed is important. That is what my sincerely suggestion and that is the first priority Mr. Obama should do. The States is still in a fragile situation and the Fed policy should not be changed that much to let people fear. To let Mr. Bernanke stay in the Fed seems to be a better choice that Mr. Obama has to make. Those ones with mortgages to pay in the States should be treasured rather to be abandoned.


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My Dear American fellows:

  I do not suggest to stop pruchasing bond even I love to see what happens. But I guess right now the Fed should do is to let the operation twist(OT) go all over again, to exchange the longer-term US treasuries with the short-term ones. The idea behind is to lower the mortgage burden of US homeowners and it can let them to shop, to invest and to have a good time. The idea behind is to let the US society to have more money flowing between people in the States and everyone can get some benefits. My dear American people, now the policy of "beggar your neighbor" is not quite good these days as you still have higher unemployment rate and lower saving rate. The only way to do is to distinguish good ones from bad ones and persuade people to invest in those nations that are more American-like. I know people here will be afraid to hear that because we think we can not survive in the circumstance of appreciating currency. People in our own nations love to see the depreciation of our own currency as the South Korean Won depreciates a lot these days. That is the extra favor I need you to give us. Because we just can not help US and against Korean Won at the same time. If you do realize those conflicts between TWN and KRE, I guess you will understand how come we can not appreciate our own currency this time.

  I still think the Fed should stop buying bonds but exchange them again. The goal here is to let the mortgage rate to be accomodated in some tolerable range. Until the economy just gets even better, then the Fed should stop doing those kind of things like QEs or OTs anymore. Or you should come out with some new ideas to help those homeowners. I think you have to understand people can buy the house shows they have some consumption abilities. They should be treasured instead of be abandoned.

  The risk behind OT seems to be the pressure of defaltion, but as you know the commodity prices just go down and down. It is inevitable as China just want to change their ways of living from the fact that the USA and the advanced European nations just can not absorb too much cheaper products anymore. So the deflation pressure will happen in the emerging markets but it gets little chance to happen in the States. The reason behind is you have bigger service corporations and industries. And to lower the mortgage rate is all you need to do NOW. To accomodate the mortgage rate in some range should be the first priority of the Fed.


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My Dear American fellow:

  It is a crossroad you have to face these days. To be honest, I am a little happy to see it that way as those ones with big tongue used to say the bond purchasing is a bad idea for emerging markets and the US. But the reality is the opposite. It is good for them. And it is good also for American people somehow. Americans already know their roles in the world but there are a lot of nations seems not to know it quite well. China need some new industries for their daily life, especially some totally new concepts about the city building and how people get together and live together. A whole new way to survive is what China needs right now. China should not follow the path of US and Western European nations anymore as the earth resources just can not cope with it. China needs a new way of living or it will face the shortage of water and electricity. They will face the shortage of portein or other necessity every year in the future. At the time, people in China will face the issue that poeple has RMB but just can not buy enough high quality food, water and necessities. So their ways of living need a big change. So is yours, I guess. The financial industry should provide more jobs to your own people, those jobs should be higher paid and those jobs should be connected with people who can speak local language they invest or care about. It is a big issue for Americans. You should speak multi-language these days instead of English any more.

 Now you face the same issue used to be that emerging markets just can not be run that smooth as you think in the old days Again. There are always some discrepancies or ideas conflict between money providers and investing objects. Tho only way to let those disasters not to happen again and again is to let those markets be equipped with more buffers like well-run derivatives market and more stable financial players like good government and governance. But as you know, there is little democracy in the South-Eastern Asia, those nations still do not know what democracy is, including Phillipine, Thailand, My... Those nations still have no idea that good democracy is the only way to bring a good financial society for people to live in. So you just have to take risk more than you know these days. But these days are totally different to the USA right now. You do not have lower unemployment rate as used to be, you do not have that nuch money as used to be, so the only way is try to lower your own currencies after 2009. Now it has its limit as those nations you used to invest has fiscal indiscipline problem, especially India, Brazil, South Africa, Russia and even China. So we see the depreciation of those nations except China. The only way Americans can do is to help them to be more American-like. So they can have well-run financial markets as yours. If they do, they can have that kind of financial market to store value. But all those behind is the democracy. True democracy is what they are lack of. I still think American these days also lack the true democracy as you have bigger discrepancy between the rich and the poor more than ordinary American people know and are aware of. It is a big issue you have to challenge.


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Hello there:

  說過不反中國的,但我想身在台灣的人都該知道自己是台灣人!!中國的問題很多,當然我想中國自身也很清楚自己的問題,那就是境內百姓分配不均的問題,因此中國就打房打炒作原物料的企業與個人,想辦法拿掉它們的再融資管道,想辦法讓它們沒有辦法透過借貸的方式去買空賣空,因此中國固然沒有出現房市大跌,但是中國的借貸機構已經出現流動性的問題,中國的金融機構已經很清楚的知道不能再借錢給這些人炒房了,甚至中國的不少金融機構已經知道自身在房地產的借貸將出現少見的大紅字,簡單的說,就是中國的金融機構會跟西班牙的金融機構一般,再過來持有的是一大堆被法拍的不動產,而那些資金是完全都收不回來的,特別是中國的北京上海幾個大城市,都會見到一波房地產的拋售潮,過往這些中國的房地產炒家正在拼命將自身的資金,移往美國的紐約與英國的倫敦等美歐的大城市當中,因為她們的法律保護比較嚴密,只是這裡已經透露出中國的金融機構在中央的政策引導之下,將出現了非常缺乏流動性的情況!!中國已經知道自身產業的過時,以及過往拼著老命生產的產品是過時的,只是中國沒有真正的創新與創造力,去進行相關產業的更新,中國的大學生很多,但真正有能力的很少,這跟台灣是相同的情況;所有的白色家電在中國,都必須走上節能節水的新境界,而且那是全中國都必須走的路,但中國在此處卻是發展遲緩或者說不知該如何發展的,那也是中國目前的困境之一!!

  中國對於原物料的需求已經大減,這也是新興市場與澳洲等國家近來股市與匯市不振的主因!!而中國持有過多的美元準備,是中國必須拼命花錢換回實質的技術與產品的真正原因,但是美國卻又害怕中國的大舉購買,會讓美國的技術與產業徹底失去競爭優勢,於是中美之間的產業與各方面的大戰,就在此時一再上演,美國與中國都各取了自己的所需,台灣的老百姓卻還在腦袋不清楚當中,其實中國已經拿到了對台灣所有的所需,但是台灣換到的可能只是人民幣而已,還有臺灣比較有優勢的人力資源也是外流中國的,因為我們沒有辦法養活這些人,讓這些人有等值的貨幣與收入來源,只好讓他們去賺取人民幣,說來也是台灣的悲哀!!當然人民幣在中國外匯準備百分之七十以上都是美元的前提下,是會持續升值的,但是台灣的金融機構能夠將多少這些人民幣,換成其他能夠在國際金融市場中交易的貨幣是讓人質疑的,這是台灣目前的困境之一!!因此台灣的產業必須真正中國化,讓中國的金融機構與銀行持有一些產能過剩的產業或企業,讓中國去傷腦筋這些產品的去化,那是我們必須走的路!!


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Hello there:

  我不是很喜歡談政治,但是我想敬告碼政府,人民不是白痴,當初大家投票給您,是看上您的老實與誠信,但如今您對下屬的睜一眼閉一眼,放任很多公家機關魚肉百姓,拿窮人的錢補貼富人,這對國家是一大傷害,很多富人都沒繳稅或是繳太少,很多能夠跟國家制度相勾結的軍公教,都拿得太多太過頭,我想這些帳都得領導人來承擔,希望三年之後您下台,不會跟乘先生一樣被抓去關才好,您自己多保重了!!

  我想在這個版上我談過,很多新興市場債市存在的一些基本問題,那就是這些新興國家已經有很多美元的外匯準備到能夠發行自身貨幣的政府公債,很多國家在自身貨幣相對於美元大幅度升值時,償還掉了很多很多的國家主權債務,並且利用大家希望購買它們的主權公債,因此能夠用比較低的利率重新發行公債,而大量發行公債來借新還舊,如今這些國家的財政紀律其實都是有問題的,因此我們見到了很多國家的貨幣大幅度貶值,連帶也影響到這些國家的公債其實能夠用非常低廉的方式來償債,光是南非幣一年貶值幅度就高達十五趴左右,而東南亞的貨幣其實也是如此的,這對投資人都是非常不利的,因此在新興國家債券上與美國高收益債上面,很多有經驗的投資專家還是建議資金放在美國高收益債上面,因為相對上美元是比較穩健的貨幣,而這些國家因為大幅度增加自身的貨幣供給或是極度缺乏財政紀律,國家債務都是直線上升的,讓人很擔心這些國家可能會多印鈔票來償還自身貨幣的公債,如此一來這些國家的公債可能變成廢紙!!而美國企業手中擁有的美元估計已經超過兩兆五美元,因此相對上只要美股美債有大跌,其實都可能使得這些市場有人承接,相對上這些企業也不是笨蛋,應該是不會去買新興市場的債市,不論是企業債還是國債,因此相對上,美歐的高收益債市市場與股市,目前看來是比較好的投資!!

  另類投資這一年頗受注意的主要原因,其實還是跟匯率有關,因為成熟國家的衍生性金融商品市場較為成熟,期貨選擇權或是其他結構性商品都是用美元或是歐元計價,在新興國家貨幣過往幾年匯率漲過頭的前提下,投資在歐美的衍生性金融商品市場,其實相對上是比較穩健保守的,如果投資人選對市場與標的,相對上即便不能大幅獲利,至少能有保值的效果!!其實歐美的金融機構這幾年真的都賺翻了,美國的金融機構一直在裁員,但剩下來的員工薪水一直在調漲,去年美國幾家重要的銀行跟金融控股公司,平均經理級以上的員工薪資調漲都超過了6%以上,據說有的部門還調漲了10%,但是這些金融機構還對自身的亞洲跟拉美等國家的分支機構,繼續裁員中!!


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Hello there:

  這波美元上漲與美債殖利率的飆高,其實正說明了世界各國,特別是新興市場國家在財政上面的衰敗與衰落,很多人大抵上會質疑這樣的說法,但是這卻是不爭的事實,事實是各國財政紀律不佳,即便美元這幾年走弱這麼多,各國都將自身的政府負債換成了自身的貨幣計價,只是因為對於很多很多外來投資者與國內自身的財務需求,各國紛紛不得不賣出自身的美債資產換成美元的貨幣資產,為了就是必須滿足自身經常帳與資本帳的需求;新興國家各國的金融市場,因為投資人的大量贖回,被迫必須拼著老命讓這些投資人將自身貨幣換成美元離開,連帶使得美元的實質購買力在近期提升;同樣地,因為不少國家在黃金買賣上面都出現了大幅度的虧損,各國央行都害怕自身會出現美元外匯準備不足的情況,因此連帶必須被迫出售美國公債資產,將其轉換成大量美元的持有,這裡面正說明了美國央行總裁Mr. Bernanke所言不假,美國確實沒有大量印鈔,美國只是調節了自身的資產負債表,但那並不意味者美元數量的增加,反倒是因為美元流入其他海外國家,造成美國境內美元數量的減少,這從美國這幾年幾乎都是在通貨不膨脹(disinflation)甚至是接近通貨緊縮(defaltion)情境可見一斑,如今大家只是將過往利用便宜的美元,所進行的carry trade拿掉,重新回頭擁抱美元而已!!

  這裡面說明了過往美國消費全球商品的單引擎,並沒有因為中國的加入而有大改變,其實大家是希望能有中美兩個雙引擎來驅動全球市場的,但是中國一直都在做進口替代的動作,Benz,BMW,飛機,甚至很多歐洲名牌,很多很多的產品都已經在中國投產,中國正在去世界化當中,這已是全世界皆知的事情!!

  中國對於全球商品與勞務的消費增加不如預期,大家本來期望中國能從原物料的消費變成一般成品的消費,但是中國貧富不均的情況嚴重,能消費高檔商品的人不超過十分之一,大抵上就是那一億三千萬人左右,其他人的購買力其實都不高!!因此..不要再亂說美元紙老虎,畢竟人民幣近來也開始貶值,當全球意識到中國的消費力不強時,可能大家就不會希望人民幣相對美元是繼續升值的,因為它能消費全世界商品的胃容有限,那大家就不會希望它利用自身貨幣的強勢去佔別人的便宜!!中國在此時,對世界的貢獻是不夠的!!


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