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  這裡有很多很多的反省!!臺灣不是個鬼島,是我們自己錯!!因為跟中國大陸要連結,臺灣需要的是賣小吃的,開遊覽車的,還有導遊,想辦法賺那些沒有甚麼錢的中國旅客,想辦法從他們身上求得"生活"!!

  臺灣不是鬼島,鬼的是臺灣的百姓,這裡講求的本來就不是甚麼競爭與否,講求的是誰比較幸運,因為有人很幸運,所以可以做公務員,可以做軍公教,可以讓國家養一輩子,甚麼都不會,只要會上電視說:"做辦公室的本來就該賺得比在外做工得來的多,軍公教本來就該領的比較多,因為是國家欠我們的!!"

  臺灣不是鬼島,是臺灣這些人自己要出國去念書,然後回國找不到工作的,又沒人強迫您要學這些那些?這些那些在這裡都不管用!其實國內的高學歷者或許也有相同的感受,只是國外讀書至少還學了些英文,國內很多學校的學生甚麼都沒學會就畢業了,不論如何,國內還是有不少人都是高學歷但是卻很難有份相稱的工作!只是...誰叫您自己要做這些,電視上每天演的都是賣麵包賣雞排的才有前途,誰叫你要出國去念書,拿了個國外的學歷,最後流落補習街裡面討生活,想辦法求生存!抑或是國內的學歷,卻找不著適當的工作?!或許只要選得上立法委員,只要選得上縣長或是甚麼的,就能讓百姓生不如死,就能從負債上千萬變成身價上億!臺灣不是鬼島,是我們自己不長進,選出這些人來折磨百姓的!誰叫你自己不出來選!

  臺灣不是鬼島,是臺灣這些人是鬼,所以再多的知識,別人看了一下,搖著頭說:"屁用!!",然後走了!留下一堆人想破頭,為什麼在國外老外說這有用,到這裡真的是沒人理會!搞了半天,老外也只是為了混口飯吃,所以是騙您的!最後只好淪落街頭,每天在這裡寫部落格!!

  臺灣不是鬼島,所以才會讓老外有生意做,美國沒工作來臺灣就有工作了,可以教英文,跟別人說"你用的tense不對,你說的寫得太不清楚,語意模糊!",最後連從美國回來的臺灣人都對你說:"中文不合邏輯,語意不清,英文合乎邏輯,所以很多地方本來就該要說清楚!"可是中文已經進化千年,但是英語系每個國家都欠全世界好多好多錢!

  臺灣不是鬼島,所以可以讓去美國留學回來沒工作的,至少有英文可以教!!真想對這些人說,博碩士學的應該是專業,很多很多的專業是需要再認知的,那絕對不是英文中文就成差異的,中文的會計學是比難念的,因為它難的地方除了會計之外,其實也在於中文的表達與陳述,別跟大家說英文講這些就比較清楚,它一樣是卡在語言的表達,中文用習慣,自然是中文學起來較輕鬆,當然轉換到英文,那可是...!!所以...臺灣真的是個鬼島,因為老外以為重要的,或者因為語言跟各方面的差異,所以到這裡都...不重要了!!

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  我們真的有所謂的自由嗎?如果真是如此,為何很多人都覺得不是這樣的!!如果臺灣沒有真正的自由,那民主的意義又何在?臺灣真的要走美國式的民主,那本來就該所有的事情都只講求效率跟利潤,自然不必太在乎失業與否的問題,只有集中資本才會有高報酬,只有集中資源在少數人的手裡通常才比較有效率,其他沒資源的人本來就該死?是這樣的邏輯嗎?

  只是我們放棄了這麼多的效率跟利潤,卻還遭到不公平的監視與不自由,這跟在中國居住,又有何異?


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Dear American people:

  You know Americans just can not afford higher medicare anymore if you do not have private insurance to cover those costs. That is the issue why American need the Obamacare this time. I know even those ones in the congress can not afford it if they lose their seats in the congress. It is the truth that nobody can deny. So the problem comes to mind is how to adjust the healthcare system and what it needs to be. That is not an easy job. That is the reason why no other president dares to challenge this issue except Mr. Obama.

  That is one side story. On the other hand, the story goes like this one: You can subsidize those disgusted money games of Wall Street for those years, they have wasted trillions of US dollars on their own safe and sound. How come you can not subsidize ordinary American people, to let them have some better and cheaper medical treatments? It is a SERIOUS question you should ask yourself. Just because they can't let those congressmen or congresswomen have what they want? just becasue they can't afford those elections you hold for those years? They do not donate that much to those compaigns? Or just because those people in the congress care nothing about ordinary Americans?

  Another side of story goes like this one. How come you can not have more doctors, more nurses and more hospitals and how come the price competitions just can not function well between them? The more supply should decrease the price of services and increase the welfare to all the people,right? So the reasonable question seems to be: How come the USA government does not provide more scholarship or tuition subsidies for those doctor and nurse raising programs instead to subsidize those wars far far away??

  I guess those questions need your sincere answers and discussions.

  (to be continued)

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Dear American people:

  Obamacare is what you need desperately NOW, especially this time. When your people get their paychecks largerly less than few years ago. The USA need a big overhaul, but it can not be done in one day. Everything has to be discussed and has some concensus. We, ROC, or you call Taiwan, have the national heathcare system. Our doctors and nurses get much less paided, and sacrifice a lot of things on their fanily needs in order to support the system.

  As your talk show queen onces mentioned, it just can not happen in the States. For the beginning, your medical school need more funds to have a good doctor produced, how can you expect those doctors ask less money when they have a big burden of their tuitions in the school? They paid a lot on it. Every doctor has its school debt after they just graduated and become a doctor. How can you expect they sacrifice a lot to save others for free or almost nothing when they need to pay for those costs? Just as your MBA, everyone paid a big buck to graduate and become a master. How can you expect those ones do a lot of things without a big paid? So you may say that is the reason why it needs the government support. But it comes to a question. How much should the government pay for it? How to get those money to pay for it? In our experience, if the governement does not want to pay for it and does not want to ask the wealthy people to support, then all it has to do is to use the FLAT headcount TAX for all people in the country. Then it comes to the issue, those burden just goes to the middle class as the poor families have no money to pay for it. So they just do not pay for it even the governement impose a lot of restrictions on them. To cut their medicare, to not them join or use the healthcare system, to let them be discriminated or look down will get the attention of media that everyone thinks the government is cold blooded. They have no money, and we are a nation with democratic society. So in the end, we just let them use the national healthcare for FREE. We do not ask them to pay for the money they owe to the healthcare system unless they can have some decent jobs. But who knows when... We do not ask them to pay for it and we also give them some subsidies, the government transfers, if their family members need other things like school tuition, meals for every day life, etc. In the end, we find that our middle class is just disappearing even faster as their burden just get even bigger. And the government do not dare to ask the wealthy people to pay a little bit more for the healthcare system. So that is the situation we have. The others is we have poor doctors and nurses, they are so easy to have cancer than those doctors and nurses in other nations because they are so tired to cpoe with patients. And that is the reason why our government uses a lot of nonsense to cut the payments to doctors even they use right treatments on patients. Our healthcare authority just does not want to pay all of them and leave doctors or hospitals to cover those costs. They use a lot of excuses to refuse to pay for those treatments. It is the truth in our nation. So they just transfer those burdens on our doctors, nurses and hospitals. Is that what you want?

  It comes to your mind, if the Obamacare does work? If it does, then you have to change your a lot of things and even your mindsets on the issue. It is more than you know or imagine. On how much money you need to raise a mature doctor, on how much money you need to pay for the Obamacare. Even on how many items the Obamacare has to pay for. If the flu or other treatment without to stay in the hospital can be covered and that is all in the Obamacare. Will that be O.K. with you? Other things need a big operation or daily care do not be covered ny the Obamacare, is that O.K. with you?

  In our experience, it is not O.K. The reason is that our system wants to help those ones need daily care or daily assistant like kidney issue ot other natural defections. So everyone pays some for those who need that kind of treatment. The youngsters pays some even they do not use the system. The elder people get the most benefit when they just get old and need some hospital-stayed treatments. So it comes to another question, if your pension system does not need to pay for it anymore, will you want to have a burdenless pension system in order to change for those treatments covered in the Obamacare? Everything is connected with each other. Everything needs to be considered thoroughly if you want the Obamacare to be workable.

  It is a issue of some gain and some lose, you need to cut something in order to subsidy others. That is the reason why the Obamacare in some sense means a big society overhaul for your nation somehow.

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  很難過的說,臺灣這麼多年以來,從小蔣總統之後,好像越來越缺乏科學化的管理者來幫忙治理國家,大官們做事情的邏輯與優先順序的考量點是甚麼??地球暖化的議題是大家都關心的,但是政府好像只有在台北市的周邊建了大型的防洪設施,感覺上就是幫助財團們賺房地產的錢;卻完全忽略中部的大城市南部的不少地區也需要完整的防洪配套,百姓總不能每年到這個時候就擔心淹大水,如此大家怎麼好好過日子?在電視上見到農民的眼淚,在電視上見到了靠天吃飯的農民因為農損哭紅了眼,卻在另一角見到了做股票與期貨者,高談闊論蘋果概念股又替眾人賺了多少錢,坦白說心裡是很不愉快的,政府替這些農人做的太少了!!大埔事件還近在眼前,農人又因為暴雨而哭紅了眼,政府的起而行在哪裡??

  東京為了自身可能面臨到的暴雨,挖了一個好大的儲水槽,臺北市為了可能的淹水,花了好幾百億去做防洪設施,試問誰替臺中市的百姓考量整體的防洪?誰替南部的農民考量他們的泡水農作物?政府對這些都該主動且進一步的多關心,這些事情當然繁瑣,但是是否政府也有適當的防洪措施或更科學化的配套處理?或者也替他們挖一個好大的儲水槽,在雨多的時候儲水,在雨少的時候讓這些水能夠再利用,也或者有其他比較有效的管理方式?如果淹水是每年都必然會發生的,那政府該怎麼做??政府時時刻刻出現浪費公帑的情況時有所聞,但是對於貧窮鄉鎮與縣市的科學化幫助真的太少,不要說那不是K黨執政的縣市就幫的少,不要說因為沒有甚麼地目變更來去賺大錢就不幫忙,馬政府每年多花的錢到底去了哪裡?這一直都是大家的疑問!這麼多人需要國家用比較科學化的方式幫忙生計跟生活,但是政府好像比較關心的是每年的煙火在哪裡施放,要辦甚麼國際活動卻完全不管賺錢賠錢來吸引眾人目光,政府每天做得好像只是如何讓百姓過著想像自己很幸福但卻一點都不真實的生活,而不是我們的食物與農民的生計!!

  從小蔣之後,臺灣好多地方的管理就越來越不科學,很多的管理者,不論省籍,其實都只關心對自己有利的事情,每個主政者都從制度建立上面去圖利了自己跟自己的親信,每個主政者想的都只是如何從國家這裡拿多一點,太少人從總體國家未來的發展去思考問題,對於臺灣這個系統裡面的很多很多議題,都用心不足,一直都好讓人失望!!

  對於目前的馬政府,雖然感覺上沒這麼強烈,台電中油的一堆問題,至今還是沒有提出有效的解決辦法,卻馬上要漲百性的電價,那是說不過去的事情,因為這些企業它們內部的貪污與自肥,一點都沒處理,不是嗎??!!

  很多事情其實是知之甚詳,只是真的不太想說,馬政府可能得去關心一下健保署(?)這個單位近來在做甚麼事情,一來是黑員漂白,根本沒有通過國家考試就想變成國家的正式職員,再者不知道政府有沒有聽說,醫師公會自己辦的講習跟健保管理單位的標準不一,結果在後來健保給付標準放寬之前,刻意去欺壓醫護人員,苛扣人家的給付金額,還用奇怪的方式處罰醫護人員?爾後對於其他類似事件,竟然用在某年某日之後放寬的方式,所以出現其他醫護人員免罰的情境??臺灣的健保問題很多,這裡又是一例!!坦白說,臺灣真的不該有甚麼全民健保,即便要有也不該由一心想自肥的黑員們主其事,試問這麼自私的一群人,怎麼可能替百姓們把關??臺灣管理單位的自肥與自私自利問題,從這裡又見到了一件!!又比如台電以前有自己經營的一些附屬單位,結果因為台電本業經營不善(但奇怪的是台電的一些根本未上市也不需公布財報的子公司都賺了大錢,也都分到很棒的分紅跟員工薪資!),結果竟然要求原附屬單位要繳一大筆錢回台電,最終造成這些附屬單位無法經營只好宣告倒閉!還有很多很多關於中油的事情,聽過的人也都是直搖頭的!

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Dear American Fellows:

  A greateness USA is gone for a long time. You overlook the burden of the world instead look at your own problems. The poor issue, the less education issue and the debt burden issue are all American should face. The discrepancy of wealthy people and poor ones in the States is more severe than you thought. The important ones are as follows: The first one is the problem of decreasing or shrinking manufacture jobs provided in the States. You often want to get the whole world's resources employed for your own good. People in many countries may not be that grateful to what you have done. Of course, I am grateful to what you have helped us for such a long time. But it has its limitation, We just can not waste our own savings to do the senseless thing - to join the careless and HORRIBLE money game you played in those years.

  The second one is Americans have to save their own country by saving more and to keep your financial system with a fairly distributive rule. The fairness here means that everyone wants to get richer, he or she has to work hard. The risk taking business should be rewarded on its creativity and entrepreneur. You should not make a fortune on the expense of others' savings. It is wrong. The financial system should benefit the hard-working ones instead merit the gamblers. Those who do nothing but the money games should be punished. It builds nothing but just piles up the indices means that you have to face the consequence if those indices just go down AGAIN. A vicious circle happens again and again in those years when we see some wealth redistributive cycles of bad money games. The riches get even richer, but the poors gets even poorer. It should be forbidden.

  There ia an article written by Dr. Titman in the Journal of Finance, 2013, which mentions about the negative externalities of financial investments. The USA seems to fall in such a vicious circle these days. The boom and bust financial markets just show the wealth redistribution from the governments of weastern nations to the wealthy people, from the taxes collected from each western nations to the private equity owners or hedge funders. It is undeniable that there are good private equity owners who invest in the FaceBook, the Apple corporation and other well known technology firms. But there are a plentiful ones who just move the gold bars from the system to their homes. The disgusted money game just can not repeat itself anymore.

  Americans have to change their mindsets that "the cheaper" is not the best way to live. Amercians people should have their national ideology that ones should buy a lot stuffs manufactured in the States, just like those people of South Korea. South Koreans love to buy Samsung, LG, and other things manufactured by themselves. Americans just want to buy cheaper things and do not care if it is manufactured in the States. You can go to the souvenir stores of Metropolitan museum located in the New York city, you will find out that ALL is NOT MADE in the USA. I was surprised by this kind of things several years ago. When I tried to bring  home with something made in the USA, I got no one. So I decided to buy NOTHING. It is a warning sign. Besides, the warning also tells us that your people even do not buy daily necessities that is made in the USA amymore.Yes, it may be more expensive but it provides jobs. How can you expect people live in the States have money to save if they can not get decent jobs? It is wrong. The free market spirit should be preserved, but some of those products should be built in the States if you really want to save more money.

  The good cycle begins from the jobs creation, to the money saving and to the well functioning financial markets, and it just bring the wealthy people to take risk and build something new, so more job created and more money can be saved by the Americans. The good cycle has to be rebuilt and the old-bad-money-game has to be shattered.

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  關於現在,我必須再說一些事情,首先,如果民進黨不肯做更多的改變,還是要那幾個老傢伙出來,而這些人還是堅持過去那套根本行不通,那民進黨應該在2016年當選的可能性已經不大!!在這裡必須再次強調不支持小英的原因,並不在於她到底有沒有利用國家資源幫自己家族的生意解套,而在於民進黨過往的經濟政策有很大的盲點,而那樣的盲點對於整體的就業是不利的!!民進黨以為要解決軍公教的問題,最重要的就是將公營的金融機構一點一點的賣給私人,但這裡面牽扯出來一些很根本的問題,那就是到底哪些金融機構該賣給哪些人?如果這些人都是民進黨的傳統支持者,即便民進黨下野,它還是能夠跟過往國民黨下台一般,對臺灣的經濟有一定程度的控制力,站在政黨相互制衡的立場,或許乍看不是壞事,但這些生意人也不是白癡,他們是牆頭草,一旦民進黨沒搞頭,他們還是會跟國民黨輸誠,然後跟著去中國朝聖,希望能夠賺更多的錢,最終大多當然是賠錢的,到時國家還是會遇到本地金融產業的就業率大幅降低,而很多的資金都拿去中國的問題,也將使得本地更沒有資金在彼此之間流動;民進黨在過往關於金融改革的議題上面的政策,是全然不該也不能被全民所接受的!!這也是當時以為全民不可投給民進黨的主因,因為她無益於就業!民進黨最大的問題,就在於台灣獨立的觀念是源自於很多很多年以前過往當時台灣的本土菁英,而非一般的市井小民,因此離一般平常百姓很遠很遠;過往這些人士在臺灣是當時收入非常高的人,它們大多受過日本人的特別栽培,因此才會有以日本為主且支持台灣獨立的想法,也因為這樣,這些人確保的是自身家族的永續利益,從目前臺灣的真實需求來看,其實跟台灣大部分人民的利益是相違背的,特別是在臺灣經濟需要轉型的此時,過度集中資本與過度進行公營企業的私有化,對於台灣目前的就業沒有幫助,且容易因為資本密集與投資決策的錯誤,使得最終政府必須付出更高的成本,來解決可能產生的新投資失敗與決策錯誤!這才是為什麼反對小英的原因;至於為何不支持S先生,因為它沒有團隊,因為它的數字觀念太差,因為其為更為自私的人!!

  您能見到目前政府的私有化怎麼做,將政府持有的老績優股票賣給國家的退休基金,賣給國家負責全民的退休基金,透過這樣的方式繼續管理這些股權,讓全民成為這些股權的擁有者,我想這是民進黨不會做的事情,或者說是目前民進黨這些老先生老太太不可能有的真知灼見,因此它們是不適合管理未來充滿挑戰的臺灣!!原諒這麼說,知道軍隊有多麼的不對,但那只是國家需要調整的一環,而民進黨過往執政八年也沒敢去動這個議題,不是嗎?這次劇情裡面的人都是待在軍中多達十數年者,所以這裡只展現出民進黨跟國民黨在這個主題上都是束手無策的!!

  當然知道馬先生多少也是不合適作領導的,但是幾害相權取其輕,這是不得不的決定!!值得一提的是,如果民進黨在西元2012年順利執政,那美國目前的情境就會在臺灣一模一樣的重現,更多金融人員失業,更多金融整併,但不代表這些金融機構不會倒閉,因為這些人更有可能集中資本,去買了歐洲與美國投資銀行或是金融控股下的投資銀行部門所發行的信用風險或是市場風險綜合的CDO,CDS,CMS等一些故意計價錯誤與管理失當的金融商品,只因為歐洲與美國的金融操作者想賺大錢,只因為人謀不臧的事情還是存在的,因此政府最後需要付出的代價可能更為嚴重,其背後馬上見到的代價是臺灣的就業就更為艱難,與全民的資本全部被這些金融商品的賠錢與損失給消耗殆盡!!因此在當時支持馬先生似乎變成是唯一的選擇,因為我們不想變成今天的美國,那是最反面的教材!! 

  過度的金融自由化,已經使得歐洲跟美國在西元2008年時出現了非常嚴重的金融風暴,因為過度金融自由化,使得原來無法條可以管理的美國投資銀行,肆無忌憚的發行大量衍生性金融結構性商品,並且頻繁地與歐美亞洲各大金融機構與退休基金進行交易,最後造成金融體系出現嚴重的系統性風險,反觀亞洲的金融體系在當時相對上比較沒有危機,主因就在於各國的金融機構各有擅長,甚至有的國家的金融機構資本很小,玩不起這樣的金錢遊戲,反倒成為避開危機的受益者,因此金融機構的大型化,其實反而容易使得自身易受到歐美金融機構的覬覦,最後是血本無歸的下場,這從本地參與雷曼兄弟投資銀行發行的結構型商品所產生出來的虧損,就能一窺究竟!!


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Dear American fellows:

  I am so sorry to let you know the truth that American still can't get on its feet. And there are many constraints you have to face. In the following paragraphs, I have to mention a couple of things that you need to be notified.

 (1) The Amercian pension system: As the economy can not have such a big growth and Americans can not save so much money anymore. The old pension system comes to the crossroad. Anyone knows the detail will have to tell you that it needs a big overhaul. Defined benefit system has to be changed to be a system with some defined benefit for the basic livings and with a large part of defined contribution for the extra. When the USA just barely to grow 2 percent a year in the booming time, it just show how ridiculous the old pension system can be. No one deny that the elder people did contribute a lot to the society of the States. But they also enjoy and take a larger share of those benefits in those years already. American people have to tell them it just can not go that way anymore as we couldn't earn that much money to help your retirement. It has to be changed! If it can't be changed, there will be little incentive for the job creations as the USA has the big burden on the pension issue. The corporation are afraid to go bankruptcy if they hire too many people this time.

 (2) The incentive to save: Even American people earn less than used to be, you still need to save no matter what. It has to be that way. Please keep in mind that China is in a better shape this time, the only reason is they are not afraid of the downturn which is due to the greatly higher saving rate and a big pocket of every one.

 (3) The healthcare system: The USA has the most expensive healthcare system, it has to be changed. You should be briefed that it has some connections with your pension system. In our experience, if the healthcare issue is coped with well, the pension could be largely reduced as the elder people need most are the healthcare. The cost of healthcare could be reduced with the redution of pension scheme will be a lovely thing for Americans this time. And it has to be that way for the future of Americans.

  I do not like Mr. Obama either. But he is right from the beginning. He insists it has to be changed in the healthcare is right. But he forget to know the issue better. If the heanthcare system is adjusted with the pension system accordingly. It just shows the success of a big transformation of American society. American was one a great nation, but it is not anymore. The reason behind is the heavy burden of pension systen, the notorious healthcare cost and too much higher cost of livings. It just have to be changed or you will never get out wood until you figure out how to resolve those issues.

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My Dear American people:

  I am sorry that I will never say those strong words to you. Even I really want to, but I could not. I believe in God.

  I should let you know that the money game must be end somehow. When American companies have their credit ratings back, and those universitiy endowments funds have their money back. The money game is about the end. Now you should try to create some decent jobs in manufactures instead of financial services maybe. It is obvious that your financial institutions do not want to share their profits with the whole country. That is fine! Do not count on the financial institutions which can create new jobs. I have to remind you. The white familiy is just as poor as the black family these days. And the situation just gets worse. There are a lot of families of white people just as poor as the illegal Latin families. It is the truth you have to face. The financial system need a big overhaul somehow. That is the only thing you have to do!!

  If Americans think that the nation is out of wood, I think the answer may be "Yes! In some ways! You are!! But on the other hand, you are not!!" The USA still has more than 14 trillions US debts outside. It has to pay back to those debtholders. The Obama administration tries so hard to turn all those ugly debts of every endowments of universities (esoecially Ivy league), all those nealy or just bankrupt companies, all those nearly collapse financial institutions (they should be institutionized! I guess!) into the burden of the USA government's own debt. That is the truth. But it just can not go on forever!! We can not count on  the financial market high flying all the time and just expect it well well above the reality. It must be ended. If you do not think that way, you can see the example of Venezuela. Its stock market goes thousand times than used to be. But people think it is a well behind nation. Be reasonable, the USA just can not be that way.

  I guess all I have to say is "May God bless the USA!!" It is blessed before, but it may not be that way ANYMORE if you do not change.


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  其實老美自己也知道自身的金融產業跟相關知識都已經有點走到了盡頭;簡單的說,老美在金融產業上面是一蹋糊塗的,而老美在這個部分的知識其實大多都是錯得離譜的!!否則也不會荒謬到做金融機構的deregulation,放任投資銀行包裝一大堆的CDO與Subprime MBS等奇怪金融商品,還欺騙自己人去買了一大堆,最後不論是亞洲的保險公司,亞洲的銀行,美國自家的金融機構,歐洲的金融機構都賠掉原始投資金額的一大半以上,最後只好美國政府花大錢來收拾做QE跟OT,原因只是希望讓這些賠錢的金融機構自己去市場裡面套利,將賠掉的錢賺回來,很多亞洲的散戶在西元2008年根本是賠掉了一大半,也沒有辦法跟法人一樣有錢再投資去賺回賠掉的錢,而美國最後還是不肯將Glass-Steagall法案恢復,投資人也只能繼續心慌慌!歐洲的金融機構會做deregulation的原因在於很多金融機構都有政府的持股,因此銀行賺到錢是會回饋給政府的!其實外人也不是很適合去做甚麼評論,但是美國的投資銀行跟商業銀行該做切割是絕對正確的道路,這點美國人只要不做,美國的金融市場永遠都是有資訊的人宰割沒有資訊的人,我想這點美國人必須有很清楚的認知!當然我們也都見到了因為金融機構的問題,導致目前歐洲失業率這麼高與還有很多銀行是快要倒閉的情境!即便是德國都很難倖免於難,只是這就是金融機構過度自由化,以及放任避險基金到處賺各國政府的錢的問題,這點是美國,日本與歐洲的大問題!財富的分配與各國政府債台高築的結果,竟然是有錢人繼續有錢下去,說來也是件非常奇怪的事情!

  美國在2008年之後的救市,基本上就是拯救破產企業員工的退休金與很多有錢人的股票投資,說來也是有點可憐,因為連Harvard與Yale大約在上次金融海嘯當中也都虧損掉很多的endowment!當然知道美國政府做了這麼多的QE,這些endowments應該也賺回來不少錢,但是別忘了,最後這些都只是債務上面的移轉,從民間的各個角落移轉成為美國政府的債務,關於這點美國人是要有認知的,從全世界的各個角落移轉成為美國政府的債務!!美國政府至今只能繼續鼓勵大家,要對國家有信心,事實是...美國境內的白人目前貧窮的比率已經跟黑人差不多,很多很多的美國白人家庭窮困的情況並不輸給黑人以及後來非法移民到美國拉丁裔,我想這些都是美國自己必須要充分的認知!!繼續永無止境的金錢遊戲,賠錢再找政府出來賠,套句Obama過去自己說過的:"It has to be ended somehow! No more money game!"美國人需要的是真實的工作,跟金融遊戲無關的工作!! Americans need is a decent job. Do not let Americans play those horrible money games anymore. Let them have decent jobs!! It seems to be an echo to myself.Yes,I also have no job!!

  我們該體諒老美缺錢的窘境,希望亞洲人能夠再捐一點錢給他們!!我想這點,我是能夠多體諒的!!


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  中國,一個感覺很遙遠的國度,卻又如此靠近,但是這些人一波一波每天都能在台北的街頭上見到!!可以感受到他們很喜歡臺灣這個地方,也很喜歡臺北這個土地,因為臺灣百姓本來就很友善,只是相對臺灣百姓去到中國投資經商,總覺得中國是個不友善的國家!!這是個事實,中國的人口壓力太大,大到很多人沒辦法生存只能用偷拐搶騙的,而且這裡面還不乏中國的高官與高級知識份子,其實臺灣很多很多的知識份子,在臺灣也沒有很好的發展,但是大家卻都很守秩序的在家裡蹲,等機會,看看能否有比較好的發展;反觀中國是個沒有法治只有人治的國家,所以...可憐的臺灣跨海投資中國的有錢人就被坑!!

  其實台灣的軍隊感覺上也是一個沒有法治的團體,還蠻懷疑一但打仗時,可能臺灣的阿兵哥拿著槍桿對著的是軍隊裡的長官們,因為積怨已深已久,但對岸與其無怨無仇,所以先一槍打死長官再說,以消心頭之怨!!曾幾何時,臺灣變成這樣了!感覺上募兵也不用募了說,因為募兵半天如果都是募到女生進去,等下軍中又是性侵跟性騷擾事件頻傳的話,到時真的打仗還是槍桿對內,先將當時性騷擾的這些人解決掉再說,這樣看起來臺灣的軍隊還真是沒有科學管理的觀念,其實也不太需要打仗了!老話一句,帶兵要帶心,沒能力的人不該當軍隊的長官!!

  扯遠了!!回頭談中國的發展,其實中國的下一個十二五計畫應該不再是經濟發展,而是溫飽問題,最重要的是中國也不該發展醫藥產業,因為那會大幅度提高中國老年人口的存活率,科學一點的說法是,中國在未來二十到三十年之間,該做的是將中國的人口控制在八億到十億左右之內,目前中國高達十二億以上的人口,對中國的經濟發展可能不如想像中是加分的,而是減分的,因為中國之後的每年都需要擔心自身的糧食不足,那中國唯一能做的就是乞求美國每年都沒有旱災也沒有水災,特別是美國的糧倉跟其他世界各地的糧倉,否則中國是沒有能力餵養十二億人口的,因此中國該做的其實不是強化自身的醫療保健,反倒是應該讓中國的人口逐年逐年的自然減少!很多年以來,西方總以中國與印度有人口紅利(population dividend)來看中國跟印度,但是印度的醫療環境很差,其人的品質與生產力遠不如西方的認為,外加印度的宗教多元,但是卻有一個很奇怪的想法,對於人口節育是反對的,相對上當印度的人口素質因為醫療環境與教育不足而越來越差時,其實印度承擔的不是人口紅利,而是更多的人口負擔與磨難,同樣地,當中國慢慢進入人口老年化之後,中國的高齡化人口很可能在未來十數年急速膨脹到上億人,到時中國將面臨到這些人出現生產力低落卻又需要非常高額的社會醫療與退休保障的負擔時,到時中國將面臨更大的糧食不足與醫療不足,因此中國如何科學化地對這些議題進行準備與管理,那才是目前中國該做的!

  另外一個中國該做的是開始教育中國的百姓,其實高中畢業就該去市場工作,社會學到的比學校多,中國目前一年七百萬的大學畢業生,估計有百分之十五是很難找到工作的,百分之十五簡單算起來就是一百萬左右,一年一百萬,十年就是一千萬,去年中國的數據顯示就是百分之十五,再過來中國經濟放緩可能數字會更高,這些人將成為中國社會未來的大隱憂,最可怕的是還沒有將研究所畢業失業的人算在裡面,不論是社會安全還是社會的經濟發展上面,這些人都可能是減分而不是加分;或許中國該做的是台灣目前做不到的,那就是開始淘汰中國的大學,讓中國的大學在未來幾年之間能夠減少超過百分之二十以上,另外強化國小與國中和高中的教育,學習德國美國跟台灣,盡早在高中就進行分流,根據中國未來需要產業需要的基礎人員進行直接的培訓,將學校變成工廠的實習地方,這才是中國該做的,講得直接一點,套據美國紐約市長Bloomberg的說法,中國該培養的是品質精良的水電工人跟粉刷工人,以及其他民生必需的基礎人力,並且想辦法讓這些人的薪資維持在一定程度之上,如此中國的均富才能真正達成,只有為數眾多的中產階級,才可能使經濟成長的動能進一步提升,因為中國需要的是中產階級的消費,而不是中產階級被高房價給綁架了,那會造成中國中產階級無法消費,社會將失去消費與成長的動能,因此中國打房是正確的道路!!其實中國已經在做了,中國的阿里巴巴企業的淘寶網,很多年以前已經有很多大學裡面的網路行銷科系的學生參與其中,而淘寶網的營業額不少都是沒有大學學歷但生意做得很棒的網客所參與!!

 對於美國來說,美國該做的是金融監理,更完整的金融監理與更細膩的金融管理,其實歐洲跟美國都在做了,特別是會計相關科系越來越強調對於歐美大型企業,不論是金融還是普通企業的審計(auditing),並且要求這些金融機構必須增加自身的資本(capital),並且進一步要求資本的實際內容必須與規定相同!!很多美國的媒體人都以為只要要求金融機構增加資本就可以,但是這裡面有一個問題是投資銀行需要多少資本來進行自身風險的規避與承受?目前美國很多的投資銀行是金融控股公司下面的子部門,另一個很大的部門是商業銀行部門,投資銀行很多的投資用的是商業銀行存款戶的錢來進行的,相對於過往美國的投資銀行無法可管,但是必須自己去市場裡面募資,或是去幫別人進行證券化或是IPO與SEO等準上市或已上市公司股權換現金的行為,其實那才是投資銀行該做的,也就是一般所謂的訂價權與後續的交易,在這裡面是需要承擔風險的,那跟一般商業銀行的角色並不相同!!商業銀行首重的應該是自身的流動性,固然商業銀行也需要承擔貸款的風險,但是很多的風險背後都是有擔保品的,如果今天諸多的投資銀行做的只是買空賣空的行為,一方面承銷或是包裝好某些特定商品,另一方面卻又買進特定的CDS之類的商品,其實投資銀行在這些交易當中只是擴大了金融體系的風險,而不再是扮演中介者的角色!

  不是很以為有的投資銀行說自己很珍惜客戶,因此客戶的要求都照辦,那是不對的事情,很多時候客戶要求的事情,對總體社會或者說對於總體西方社會是沒有幫助的!!而且投資銀行擁有的資訊是其他金融機構沒有的資訊,當它幫特定企業進行募資與籌資,或者它替某些金融機構的金融行為包裝特定金融商品,其實對於這些人都是有特定的資訊的,而這些資訊是不應該也不能夠流入到市場當中的,如果不肖的投資銀行利用這些私有資訊結合其他外來金融與投資機構炒作或是放空它幫忙承銷的這些企業的金融商品,試問那是怎樣的情境?這也是大家擔心跟以為投資銀行跟商業銀行,還是不要放在同一個金融控股之下,是比較好的!!

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