目前日期文章:201802 (3)

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Dear Mr. Trump:

    Mr. Trump seems not to know the situation well. I know the reason is that a lot of experts who don't want to help this regime. I am afraid to say that is a truth. The basic idea why the Obama administration keep the Treasury yield so low is that the US government wants to have a lower cost to service (its debt). Of course, we love to see the Fed trims down its balance sheet to bring down the scale of US government debt. But the consequence is the action may raise the yield rate so much. The basic idea behind the yield rate is that the 10 year US Treasury yield is the base rate for everything. People buy a car and ask a loan where the loan rate is the 10 yr Treasury yield plus some markup. So are the mortgage and the credit card debt. If the yield rate of 10-yr US Treasury goes too high, people may expect the probability of bankruotcy of lower credit US corporates goes even higher. It will raise the funding cost of lower credit US corporation. Mr. Trump should know better that a lot of lower credit US corporates are those ones related with the shale oil industry. It may hurt the capacity of US own shale oil industry and bring up the oil price. A lot of other nations may love to see that, especially those countries with oil output such as Russia and Middle East nations.

  We have mentioned that the 10-year US Treasury yield should not go too high because the US already has 20 trillion government debt. The other reason is that a too high yield may increase the funding cost of  US ccorporates. A lot of lower credit rating US corporates are related with the energy industry, especially the shale oil. If the US 10-yr yield rate goes too high, the cost the US government has to face is to pay more cost to service its own debt. There is the 20 trillion US dollar debt this time.

  Also, one trillion infrastructure plan in the US needs lower cost to build and support. The Trump administration should think hard about how to bring down the 10-yr US Treasury yield this time when people get excited about the US stock market and leave the US Treasury market behind. It is the cost Trump administration has to face when people get excited about the future. Too much pleasure may bring some disasters we may not foresee. Mr Trump has promised to those people in the election to have a decent life. Truely, they are a lot of votes there.


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  以前有本書叫做醜陋的中國人,殊不知過去二十多年來的臺灣,我們一直在演的是醜陋的臺灣人....

(1)自己沒錢看醫生,所以叫醫護人員跟醫生免費給大家治療,訂下全世界最荒謬的全民健保制度,回頭看英國的全民健保,英國為保障醫護人員的尊嚴與生活,訂下重大醫療治療必須排隊的規定,很多病患在排隊期間,因等不到治療而過世,一年最多可能高達四五百個人,但那套全民健保制度保障所有民眾,連民眾從醫院回家沒車錢,醫院都會發送車資並且回頭跟政府核銷,只是英國的全民健保制度,絕對不會叫醫護人員免費加班到過勞死亡。

(2)自己沒錢念書,所以叫政府壓低學費或是補助學費,公立大學學費低廉到不像話就算,私立高中高職從馬政府以後,還拼命補助,希望學生一定要去念這些學校,結果公立學校的經費不足,無法與全世界的大學競爭,中國北京的清華大學跟北京大學一年的經費是臺北國立臺灣大學的數十倍,像話嗎?然後所有的大學教授只好拼命造假,科技部計畫和所有可以取得的資源盡可能先佔,反正就是拼命拿國家的計畫來補助生活,這是甚麼鬼制度?最終反正大家一起混,高等教育形同兒戲,學生畢業也沒工作,因為大家都知道學用落差很大,大學教授如果是因為認真做研究,跟國外同步發展特定研究議題,因此使得這些學生的知識太先進,無法融入比較落後的企業與社會就罷,最糟的是這些大學教授在學校教授的知識,連臺灣這些遠比國外落後的企業所知道的還少,所以學生畢業以後,企業也對其興趣缺缺,這是甚麼道理?!

(3)為了賺錢,不擇手段,地震會讓房屋倒塌,主因都是人謀不臧的偷工減料所造成人禍,貪婪與自私,一頁一頁的血淚,道盡臺灣人的自私自利,好端端從遠方來的香港人跟大陸人,竟然因人禍在臺灣喪命,只因旅館業者期望將牆壁打掉後能提高旅店住房一晚價值,所以這些人就該死?醜陋貪婪的臺灣人,至此自打嘴巴,想當然耳的是...臺灣最美的風景不是人,而是錢!這些臺灣人...根本都是....妖魔鬼怪!

(4)年輕人找不到工作,竟心生歹念,不是做詐騙就是販毒吸毒,不但在臺灣如此,還跑到中國大陸,非洲跟東南亞去從事詐騙跟販毒,結果那些國家可沒像臺灣這麼仁慈跟講究甚麼狗屁人權,一個個抓起來就槍斃掉,中國大陸更狠,販毒者不但槍斃,還不准收屍,公開展示屍體至少一週,以敬效尤!回頭看,臺灣甚麼時候自由到無法無天?果真是一個人權先進的國家,先進到讓人嘆為觀止,好棒棒的司法體制,竟然連最基本不可欺盜與不可吸毒販毒的做人道理,都無法維護!

醜陋的臺灣人,至此無所遁形,自私貪婪跟無知,或許也將....繼續下去!

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Dear Mr. Trump:

    Mr. Trump seems not to know the situation well. I know the reason is that a lot of experts who don't want to help this regime. I am afraid to say that is a truth. The basic idea why the Obama administration keep the Treasury yield so low is that the US government wants to have a lower cost to service (its debt). Of course, we love to see the Fed trims down its balance sheet to bring down the scale of US government debt. But the consequence is the action may raise the yield rate so much. The basic idea behind the yield rate is that the 10 year US Treasury yield is the base rate for everything. People buy a car and ask a loan where the loan rate is the 10 yr Treasury yield plus some markup. So are the mortgage and the credit card debt. If the yield rate of 10-yr US Treasury goes too high, people may expect the probability of bankruotcy of lower credit US corporates goes even higher. It will raise the funding cost of lower credit US corporation. Mr. Trump should know better that a lot of lower credit US corporates are those ones related with the shale oil industry. It may hurt the capacity of US own shale oil industry and bring up the oil price. A lot of other nations may love to see that, especially those countries with oil output such as Russia and Middle East nations.

  We have mentioned that the 10-year US Treasury yield should not go too high because the US already has 20 trillion government debt. The other reason is that a too high yield may increase the funding cost of  US ccorporates. A lot of lower credit rating US corporates are related with the energy industry, especially the shale oil. If the US 10-yr yield rate goes too high, the cost the US government has to face is to pay more cost to service its own debt. There is the 20 trillion US dollar debt this time.

  Also, one trillion infrastructure plan in the US needs lower cost to build and support. The Trump administration should think hard about how to bring down the 10-yr US Treasury yield this time when people get excited about the US stock market and leave the US Treasury market behind. It is the cost Trump administration has to face when people get excited about the future. Too much pleasure may bring some disasters we may not foresee. Mr Trump has promised to those people in the election to have a decent life. Truely, they are a lot of votes there.

  Aother question that the reason why we have to support the high yield market of Asia is attributed to a personal reason. HC's Brothers put too much money in China who are afraid they could not get the money back. From the standpoint of Holding Company, their money are all borrowed from stakeholders. That are their employees and their stockholders. It is the reason why we have to support the market in order to help ourselves. I really hope we could get some understanding from the US and all American people. A lot of Taiwanese invest too much in China and could not get the money back. The Chinese Cummunist Party implements the capital control on their foreign reserve lately to stop capital flighting. Three trillion foreign reserve of PBOC is not quite enough for all Chinese people living in China because there are more than 100 trillions RMB circulated in the country. Could you imagine if  all the money, 100 trillion RMB of course, wants to exchange to other currency? They may need at least 17 trillion US dollars for the exchange. The truth is even the US does not have that much US dollars. It just reveals the truth that China brings out some hyperinflation worries. A lot of Taiwanese have nowhere to go this time when their money is stuck in China.

  In 2018, we may see a lot of conflicts between the US and China and between Russian and the US. Even we stand on the US side, we still have to make a living. People just put too much money in China. We need to face the problem. And we need some understanding from American people for the support of China's financial market. 2018 is a special year when a lot of conflicts may be resolved from the financial market changing. The market mechanism may shows its own power to the world. China has to face the music that it could not service its own debt by monetization (money printing without guarantee) endlessly. Or we may see hyperinflation happens in China, just like the story in Venezuela. 

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