經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

Dear American people:

  Your president election is over. It is your decision. I respect that. I hope you make a right choice. It is the end. The subcategory,美國的轉變, is coming to the end. Good morning, Good evening and Goodbye.

  In case you don't see me, Wish you all the best.

Dear American people:

  I have to remind you there is always an end of the story and no more sequels. People with experience on investment do follow the principle of buying low and selling high. That is the rule for making money. That is the rule to give people hope. Glencore is up more than you know. A lot of mining companies do have some confidence that the worst is over. The rule seems to work well for stock markets and for those companies.

 When there is dark coming, after that, we will see the sunlight. I have said that we still wait for another five million full-time jobs be created from the United States. Now we expect a lower unemployment rate for European nations if we keep the faith that Euro and Pound will not suddenly appreciate a lot. Inflation seems to be an inevitable thing for people living in the British and the Euro area. It is the thing they need for higher inflation and lower debt burden. Forgive me to be bold to say people all around the world should give sunlight to the Euro area this time. Especially those ones invest heavily in the Euro area who should look more carefully to what I write....

  Give the Euro area and the Britian a decent inflation rate. From that, they can feel relieved and have some hope to the future.

  Dear American fellows, the good days seems to be never end this time because the Fed and the US government prepare well for the downside. So it is not easy to see the downside wins. In the following years in the United States, people need to figure out how to reduce the government debt but not to push the US dollar appreciate lots. You know there is 5 trillion US Treasuries or semi-government debt in the hand of Fed. If Fed decides to reduce its balance sheet. Around 20 trillions US government debt will be largely reduced to 14-15 trillions all of a sudden. I can not imagine what will happen to the US dollar. Now, around 70% US government debt is in the hand of American people. All those interest payments on US government debt make those retirees in the US feel safe and sound.

  By the way, a larger balance sheet of Fed has another effect these days. That is to prevent the RMB to be an international currency easily because people are with full of hand of US dollars. They don't have time to think to own some RMB these days. The purchasing power of RMB remains to be seen. And the Euro, the British Pound and the Japanese Yen are all falling down with respect to the US dollar lately.

  It makes people wonder if the Fed to shrink its balance sheet. How high will the US dollar go to the sky? We don't want to see the US dollar against the gravity. We want to see another five millions American people to have their full-time jobs in the following two years.

  To be honest, it will be the most devastating weapon to the emerging world if the Fed triggers the reduction program immediately. Then it would hurt the US because of a well connected world. We want to see another five millions people have their full-time payrolls in the following two years. Please do not do the silly thing to trigger the weapon because it will hurt the American people too.

Dear American people:

  It is time to stay away from the politics and get back to work. Remeber to cast you ballot, that is all. I can feel that Mr. Trump is an old man with loneliness inside because he always tries to say something make you surprise. He may be right that American politicians are a bunch of people who do care about how to get re-elected but care less about American people. If it is that way, it just shows how ridiculous your political system can be.

  Mr. Trump is not a bad guy. Indeed he makes people feel frightened sometimes. A change hand of authority from one party to another is a regular thing for the U.S. But people seems to worry about what Mr. Trump will do if he get elected. I guess the whole story still focuses on the Wall Street. Mr. Trump may do whatever he wants to jail those people.

  People from the U.S. may say the thing Mr. Obama doesn't do but he should is to jail those criminals in the Wall Street. American people are still full of anger about those things in 2007-2008 which makes people wake at night and feel a lot of sorrow inside. Mayge, I should use the word of furious instead of  sorrow. But the law is the law which people should abide. You can not jail people just because you think those people should be. You can not do whatever you want even those people make you broken. You can not do a lot of crazy things for revenge even those villains make you cry. Even the president of United States has to follow the rule, no matter how much he wants to jail those outlawed ones. The U.S. is a country with law and order that people should respect.

  Life is hard enough these days. I know that Mr. Trump lost a lot of money on his business last year. I know Mr. Trump is a man with anger who thinks the justice is not revealed in the way he thinks it should be. But that is it. No one can live beyond the law. No one has the priviledge to live a life above the law. All those said and done could be discussed throughly. But life is not the way Mr. Trump thinks it is. It just can not be that way as he wishes.

  Obamacare is a big trouble to whole American people.How to cover all American people with insurance is a big issue. In Taiwan, we try hard to fix our healthcare system in a big way but still have to pay a lot for the learning. It is a global issue on healthcare system in which how to let everyone have their insurance covered in a cost efficient and better way is still a question. Nobody knows how could human race stop using coal and nuclear but have enough electricity to keep on living our lifes as usual. Nobody knows when we give up coal as the generator of heat and electricity, how could we survive without nuclear plant? All those problems are in front of us.

  For American people, you still have sorrow in your hearts. You still think those villains have not be treated fairly. I know that. I know that well. I am fully acknowledged about those issues. But you should follow the rule until people in the congress change the way. I think that is what Mr. Trump doesn't say. I guess that is Mr. Trump who still feel anger inside. I do not know who and what can be said and done to relieve his pain and furious inside.

  Dear American peoplem, life is hard enough already. If you want something change, you still need to fix the problem little by little and day by day. Day in, Day out. Those problems should be resolved by the congress, not by those actions under the table or beyond the law.

Dear American people:

  You should not be surprised to the wealthy American people pay hardly any taxes for nearly two decades.  American  people should be familiar with the story that Mr. Buffett's secretary pays more taxes than Mr. Buffett each year for at least 10  to 15 years. I have to remind you that Mr. Trump is the 1% percent. I also doubt that how come the 99% worship the 1% that much. Wealthy Americans could use the tax-loss shield to help themselves. But ordinary American people have to live on the subsidy of government during the financial crisis after 2008. A lot of tax deductibles can be applied on the wealthy's book. It is nothing but a normal situation Americans face.

Dear American people:

  The financial crisis of 2008 starts from the United States and makes the US government begin the world's most remembered self-salvation, the quantitative easing(QE). It brings more than 18 trillion debt to the US society. It brings more good than harm to the world. It restores the faith at the expense of whole American people(because of 18 trillions debt). It reminds us that the Uniterd States has some impact to the world in the science, the finance and the economy. What can you do? Your higher education people want to have a better life at the expense og whole American people. Those investment bankers all have great education. But they are crazy enough to destroy your financial system.

  The whole world seems to forgive nothing to those things done by Americans for many years. The world seems not to forget those great evils we encounter to those investment banking activities. We see the meltdown of Lehman Brothers. We see a lot of financial institutions try hard to retreat from financial markets for no reason but only due to the fear inside their hearts and minds lately. We see a lot of people just can not come back to have their decent lifes ever. It is the reason why Mr. Trump is rising. Don't forget, Mr. Trump is the one of 1%, but he gets respect from those depressed 99% in the US. It is a bizarre world when people have conflicts inside. The 99% white American male seems to worship the 1% with golden hair. It does trouble me.

  I know the United States is a country with prejudice and bias. I know what it feels like when I was 20 something standing inside the shopping mall, then a white fat guy goes to me with colorful language. He tries to say an alien should go back to their fxxking nations and do not disturb him. I still remeber the scene of the moment after many years now. I realize I will never be the same as those people, just like your president Mr. Obama. He will always be treated as a color low life even he brings a lot of goodies to the United States. He will never be treated the same as the male white. To be honest, there is a pride deep inside the male with blonde hair. they think the superior does exist for their race.

  For this world, there is still a long way to go even we admit the homo should have their rights to get married and have a life as the hetero. It should be remembered that the United States creates more than 15 million full time jobs for its own people in eight years. We still wait for another 5 million jobs to be there in two years hereafter. Maybe someday, the world will remember all those things have been said and done by Mr. Obama, especially for the white male Americans.

  Dear American fellows, life is hard enough even the US is in a better shape. Life is still hard enough for ordinary American people to have a daily life. People all around the world feel the same pain as American people, lower living standard with sudden higher inflation all the time. We suffer and feel the burden, too. But we still march on without hesitation. Life goes on and people still fight for their families.

  It is time to move on and forget all those sadness inside. It is time to show the world the US is resilient as before. It is time for the whole American people to desert all those differences and embrace a common goal - to feel the happiness again and be grateful in front of God. It is the life where American starts from the beginning of civilization.

  Do your best and leave the rest to God. May God bless the US.

Dear American people:

  It is time for the Fed to raise rate sooner than later. It is time to show the world that the US is resilient compared with others. It is time to raise rate to prevent the disaster of long-term lower rate environment.

  Dear American fellows, I do have pride inside. I am proud to be a Taiwanese, also a Chinese - an ancient Chinese with sophisticated characters writing. I am grateful to my American lecturers bring the fire to me, showing me what the science is.

  American people needs to be more scientific these days, especially in the environment of low interest rate. There are a couple of reasons that the Fed should raise rate in September. The first one is to show the world that the lower rate of borrowing doesn't help the real economy that much becasue an advanced nation needs practical innovation and research plans to move its economy, instead of cheaper financing. Cheaper financing doesn't help much for the US, the UK and the EU. Cheaper financing even bring harm to Red China and Japan as we see. The second one is to help Charlie Brown and Snoopy. To help the insurance company such as Metlife to have a decent reward from the financial market and other pension funds in the US. It brings happiness to the retiree and help the US out of the nightmare of 2008. The financial crisis story is over long time ago even the scar does show the existence. The third reason is to bring the rate toward the neutral one of the financial system. It is believed to be 3% for the US. Waiting too long to move the rate back to the netural rate brings harm than good. To help the economy out of illusion and a little bit exotic financial market movement is what we need. It is better to raise rate sooner than later. The last one is to prepare the Fed for the sudden disaster even in the super-loose financial situation.(Don't forget, the QE is still there!) Let the Fed have more rates to cut to face the unexpected is a necessary these days. American people are out of wood long time ago, even with a lower standard of living. It is a world trend that advanced nations with lower living standard but the emerging countries with higher inflation(so with higher living standard).

  To raise or not to raise is not a question for the Fed and Ms. Yellen, but how much to raise should be the question. A quarter or a half percent is the quesiton we should figure out. Dear American fellow, to raise rate sooner than later can bring some impact to the world. We will eventually find out who is naked in the ocean. It is a good question lately we need to know better. I think the answer will be Ch... and Ru.....

  The reason is obvious. You can not trust an economy with free market appearance but with bad democratic records. It doesn't work for an economy in which the market depends on the supply and demand to show the trading price, but we still see a lot of people vanish without any reason each day. It is a horrible story more than you know. We need a truely democracy to bring more scientific things to the nation, especially for Red China and Russia.

  May God bless the US.

Dear American people:

  Lately, the USA does need new infrastructure programs. The USA needs some new scientific projects to renovate its technology. It will be expensive. But it is a have-to-be. Now, the US is standing on the crossroad. Which way to go is undecided. To elaborate intelligent American educated people must use some projects with intelligent-intense high technology.

  I have to remind you that the student loan in the US is much higher than 1.2 trillion US dollar. To reduce the student loan level is to give those graduates a higher paid job. New technology or new research is a must-be. To use those people's brainpower and give them a higer payroll is a way to create value and reduce debt.

  Do not trap yourself in the past. Don't worry about those things that already happened or those things that may or may not happen. Move on to get the thing while you can. Just bring a new evolution to the US.

  A new technology to help people with clean water. A new technology to against the desertization. No matter what you do, just bring value to the nation and give people a higher paid job. Then we may see somthing better happening all around the world. When people can do the thing in which they specilize. It just bring hope. It just bring more wonderful things to their daily life.

 God helps those who help themselves.

Dear American people:

  I have to urge you keep the faith on everything when we do stand on a higher ground of stock market. Yes, the p/e ratio of advanced antions is much higher these days. But if the stock market can't not sustain itself, it may bring the money all into the bond market. We do see negative yield in the UK, Deutschland, Switzerland, Sweden and Japan. We don't want to see negative yield bond happening in the USA. The negative yield on the bond may destroy the pension system. We all know that a lot of states in the USA do face trouble on their own local pension systems. A lot of states in the USA have a higher funding liability. So the negative yield bond is not tolerable for those states in the USA. It may bring the thing even worse.

  I know the life is harder than everyone could imagine. But the USA must lead the world out of the negative yield trouble. Global growth can not be sustained by Eastern Asian countries only, especially China. Red China is a place without freedom and democracy. I do lose some faith on democracy, but that is the only way we could choose to live with.

  American fellows, please do not feel despaired. Please do not lose faith. Please try hard to change the USA to be a better nation. We need a sustained US financial market. I do bet on the small and mid cap of US corporates will perform much better than everyone knows hereafter. Please have faith on those companies. I do think a lot of corporates in advanced nations with a good cash yield of their stocks will be a good reward for investor. Please have faith on everything.

  I do think the US corporates should get invloved with emerging markets deeply. So we could have faith on those markets. The US has developed several financial tools which could be used to evaluated those companies in emerging markets. Please help the world to be a better place.

  May God bless the US. 

Dear American people:

  It sounds bizarre but it is a reality you face.

(1)American scholars don't think job traing program is even better for people with high school diploma. What American people needs is a good job training program instead of a bachelor degree from the college or university.

  It makes people hard to believe in. The factory of mass production needs cheaper worker with skill. Only a lot of people get the same kind of training could make it a reality. Unfortunately, your scholars only encourage American people to have a bachelor degree in the university or college. American scholars always teach American people all those manufacturing jobs are cheaper jobs with low skill. But we know that is not true. For example, have you notice that Japanese-made suits use different material like paper or other lighting stuff which can largely decrease body temperature? If all those important material could be made in the USA, it will create a lot of necessity for whole American people. Your wearing suits can largely use those material made in the USA. And that is good for the heating earth too.

(2)The idea of globalization seems to be skewed lately in the USA

  The US corporations try with their best to create a chain of supply, especially tries hard to keep the most valuable part in the USA. The iPhone may be manufactured abroad, but the most valuable parts like contents (e.g.music, movies or other paid materials) are all made in the USA. If those things still be true lately? Globalization should be a idea of chain or ecosystem creation. In the ecosystem, American people should participate in which makes their own life wealthier or easier to survive. Where is that ecosystem or supply chain lately that American people could contribute a lot and get the most benefit from the creation? If it is none, that is the reason why we see the losing touch of American stock markets connecting with emerging markets. American people don't take part in some valuable ecosystems or supply chains anymore. Who should be blamed? The big US corporations?

(3)The misplacement of debt support

  The trillion debt in the US supports only those one who can have a larger share from the market (stock or bond markets), but it brings much less to ordinary American people who try to get their living from daily necessity. That is the reason why we don't see a lot of higher-paid jobs created in the USA lately. American wealthy people lose their minds in the money game and couldn't wake up anymore. Could somebody wake them up?

Dear American people:

  We face an unknown world. And the US gives us no direction. People think I can calm you down. Unfortunately, I couldn't.

  Lately, we see China worries about its short of oil. We see China is in some jeopardy. But I have faith about the world. People will realize China will not be the only growth engine. We do expect commodities will not lead to north as people wish because of weaker Chinese demand. Other nations feel their short of foreign reserves to help the demand of commodities. People do think the gold price may be an illusion if the US greeback leads to a higher ground.

  Dear US fellows, it is a good time but also a bad one. We know the US has the most resilient economy but your politicians want you feel depressed. You think people in other nations live a better life. I have to confess that my salary is even lower than a ordinary cleaner in the US university. You think the US is well behind the world. If you think that way, then I have to wonder if I stand my feet on the earth.

  Yes, the US stock market is in a higher level, but the European markets are also in that way. Emerging markets have many problems you already know. Nobody knows where we should go these days. People have to use the trial and error to find out. And the negative yield government bonds in advanced nations are largely seen this summer. I have to wonder where the money flows. Maybe people should buy a large-sized piggy bank to save money. Maybe we all should put money under our pillows.

  Or maybe, we should invest in those companies which try hard to create jobs and to survivie. Then we could have some dividend yield and growth yield of their stock prices.

  We do live in a directionless world. I know we have to get used to it.

  May God bless the US.

Dear American people:

  In this world, people don't trust any nation but the US because of the Federal Reserve system. The issue of US dollar, every penny of it, needs the guarantee of US Treasuries. Let's think the issue seriously...If one day, the Fed Reserve system is rewritten which permits the US dollar issue can no longer need the same amount of US government bond support. For example, the US congress may permit an one-time exceptional 10 trillion US dollar issue without the guarantee of US government debt. And the US governement uses the 10 trillion US dollar to buy back the existing US government debt in the market. Then we may see the US debt level is largely reduced from 18 trillion to 8 trillion. How about that? Do you think that is a good idea?

  If it is a good idea, will the US Fed do that for the whole American people? Release the whole American people from the US debt nightmare hereafter. What do you think? It may bring inflation to the US or it just lets those greeback out of the US and even pushes up the currency of USD. Lately we see the case of euro and Japanese yen. But it may cause the short supply of US Treasuries and even lead the US 10-yrs bond yield into the negative territory because there are too much US dollar but a few US government bonds. Then we may see the negative yield of US Treasuries happens in the USA just as we see in the West European countries and Japan. Is is good for pension fund? Is is good for those people who rely on the US Treasury for their pension? Is it a good idea? In the end, it does destroy the credibility of US dollar. You may ask how come the quantitative easing of euro or Japanese yen doesn't destroy the credibility of those currencies. To be honest, it remains to be seen. People may find out, in the end, that the money on which the wealth is built may be just an illusion.

  Red China can issue the RMB without the guarantee of its government bond. So does other nation. Then, American people should ask one question...How come it can not be implemented the same way in the USA?

  By the way, Mr Trump is a retar........

Dear American people:

  To be honst, I do feel so tired lately and still do. To let people have some happiness is not an easy job. It can not be just a lips service but need to with a good plan.

  We all know those problems American people are worrying about most. We all know if people try to make some changes, it may bring a lot of tears. What's the issue Amercian people concern most?

 (1) The cost of getting higher education

       A lot of American people who support Mr. Trump have less education. A lot of people who even don't finish their high school education give their big hands to Trump. Those American people who may think the US higher education is too costly to obtain. The data shows that the salary gets better in the US when people have higher education. How could a new president help this one? How to resolve the issue which to let people have a great education without paying too much and delaying their marriage and plan of having babies? It depends on the wisdom of Amercian poeple.

 (2) The cost of heathcare

     American people do care about their healthcare cost. But if the cost goes lower largely, the quality of treatment or medicare will go down even more. How to help people understand the connection between the cost of healthcare and the quality of treatment is a must-be issue. There is no free lunch. You should not ask the hospital go bankrupt to help people have a good medical treatment.

 (3) The disappearance of middle-class

Dear American people:

  I know this time we have to face some weaker US dollar situation. It may hurt the expectation of weaker euro. It may shatter the dream of the Bank of Japan on weaker yen. But it may help emerging market corporations to service their US dollar-dominated debt and those stock markets of emerging world, especially Red China. Buy low and sell high is the goldern principle of investment. This time is no difference. But the mometum effect of specified stock still another issue we have to care about- the weaker will show its weakness longer than we know, unless it finally finds a way out. This time the world has to choose carefully which sector or which industry to preserve. Then we can have a brighter future and prevent the deflation risk of whole world.

  To emebrace the emerging market is not without differentiation. Some could have a brighter future, others don't. It all depends on their prospect and each company's balance sheet. Therefore, we need financial analytics and security analysis even more today. To well understand the growth power behind each corporate in the emerging world is important and vital.

  Dear American people, I have to urge you to embrace the difference between different cultures. Democracy may not be that good in advanced nations. Or we will not see a lot of corporations with non-performing debt in the advanced world. It just shows how vulnerable a democratic system could be. Democracy doesn't breed a good culture of corporate governance. Corporate governance depends largely on the code book following and sticking with basic principles of corporate finance. It is a must-be. We should invest in those companies who exhaust all their energy to invest in their core business instead just merge others. It is an old but still useful principle we should stick with. Lately, we see a lot of corporations use M&A for the growth engine but create nothing and bring nothing to their books. It is the reason why the falling of US high yield bood market we are in. It is the reason why we don't see some progress of big companies. Invest and focus on core business is what we need to care. It is always the investing principle 101. It is a must-be without hesitation.

  (unfinished)

Dear American people:

  It is time to review all those policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) and their consequences. It should be remembered that, from today's perspective, the only successful QE happens in the United States. Partly sucess in Red China. A big failure in Japan. Remain to be seen succeed or not in the Euro zone. Let's drill those facts and their consequences.

Red China

  Red China once takes the 2007-2008 financial crisis originated from the US as a chance to dominate the world. That is the reason why Red China launches its first large-scale quantitative easing with its jumbo infrastructure plan, including super-highway, super-speedy railroads, big dams, a lot of fancy airports and ghost towns. Red China becomes the only dominate player for international commodity markets. With the help of US-QEs, Red China creates the boom and later bust commodity cycle from 2004 to 2013. The story ends with tragic 400 of BDI number lately (January, 2016), representing the world shipping and trade between nations and areas.

  It is obvious that Red China wants to expand and replace the role of the US, especially in the time of US collapse in 2008. According to the number before the end of 2014, The deposit savings in Red China is around 101 trillion RMBs. If all those RMB could be converted into the US dollar in terms of 6.5 RMB per US dollar, we expect Red China needs foreign exchange reserve around 15.5 trillion US dollars (due to 101/6.5 = 15.54). Now Red China has 3.2 trillion foreign exchange reserve in terms of US dollar(January, 2016). The 15.5 trillion of US dollar foreign exchange reserve is behind imagination. It is the reason why people before 2015 all expect the falling path of RMB exchange rate in terms of US dollar is inevitable. But Red China could not do that because of their endless expansion plan. Big construction plan goes on. Their connections with rest of world, Middle Asian nations and African nations are all included, still on the play. We couldn't see the end of story of Red China QEs with many construction plans. Red China still wants to have its Red China dream as they wish.

  The consequence is hard to say. Red China seems to forget the reason why their story once had been thought to be great is not due to Red China-QEs but the US-QEs. The Fed gives its big hand to Red China for expansion and those booming stories of commodity-related emerging markets. All the story has its end, even though we have no clue how the story of Red China-QEs will be. But the world domination dream doesn't materialize as the boom-and-bust cycle happens all the time. We, as a human with feet on the ground, couldn't resist the gravity. Even the Fed has to follow the business cycle with proper monetary policy, so does Red China. No one could against the God's will because we are only human. We should fear of God all the time.

The United States of America

  The US QE plans, once are regarded as the worst plan on the planet, seems to play well behind thought. With proper economic reasonings and free market mechanism, the US QEs seems to be the only successful plan compared with other QEs. Structural changes happen in the US with largely profitable service corporates emerging. In the US, manufacturing jobs are repalced with high-tech service jobs with more AI and less muscle. The market discipline obeyed by American corporations get the QE job done as resources focus on profitable areas. It the the backbone of US-QEs suceess story. The QEs should accompany with free market mechanism. The greedy seems to prevail this time as people chase revenue and leave loss behind.

Dear American people:

  It is not a good time to talk about the re-emerging of emerging markets. We do see the falling of Brazil, Venezuela, Russia, Middle Asia nations, South Africa, North Africa and Middle East nations. Even Red China has its trouble. People do not expect the restructuring plan of Red China succeed. People do not expect other emerging markets re-emerging lately. People do not expect the US big corporations have great profit figures, especially those ones with lots connection with emerging markets. So we may go from here to nowhere.

  Maybe it is not a good time to encourage American people to reconnect their fortune with emerging markets. Maybe we do not see some great improvement of financial markets all around the world. Maybe it is time to hedge foreign exchange risk except the US dollar. After all those years, I still encourage American people not to worry about Red China too much. Life will find its way to survive, So will Red China. Even without the God's blessing, Red China will find its way out someday. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next year, maybe it may take a long time. But Red China will, someday.

  After QEs of both Red China and the US, we find that the US tries hard to reduce its government debt. However, we find that Red China wants to expand its influence all around the world further. Now the RMB has a larger share in the SDR, but the RMB still can't not be treated as free usable. That is the reason why Chinese corporations or Chinese people all convert their RMB to the US dollar lately. It shows the Fed system, backing the US dollar through the US government bond and interest payment, is more trustworthy by people from Red China than the RMB-issued system. People could use the US dollar to purchase oil, diamond and gold all around the world, but the RMB couldn't be used on those kind of things. Government shouldn't print money without any price paying. It is a steal from people.

  We do expect Red China will not collapse in the region of Chinese communist authority, but the economy of Red China will eventually slow down or even show its weakness from those overinvestments. Those infrastructures couldn't find enough users to pay for the construction cost. Those overinvestments already create a lot of corporate debts in terms of RMB in Red China. Sooner or later, we may see many restructuring processes going on for those corporate debts or many bankruptcies of those corporations. Their balance sheets couldn't be balanced in many years because people in Red China could not afford those ones with higher price. People in Red China may talk about the higher usage rate of traditional railway. But we all know the higher rate is due to the subsidy of government. The living standard of Red China is still too low. The technology level of Red China is still far from the western nations or Japan. Super-speedy railway needs a lot of customers who could afford the higher price of ticket to balance the book. It is the reason why people do not expect the success of Red China revolution this time. Red China authority seems to forget the privatization is the only way to promote the modernization of Red China. Market mechanism is the only hope for Red China to get its progress. Market mechanism is the only way to help the society getting away from wasteful overinvesting. Many super-speedy railroads rebuilt in Red China may have to be abolished someday if those ones could not generate enough revenue. The Red China authority doesn't have the ability to move this country with 5,000 years history to a new level but leaves a lot of unresolved debts to the nation lately.

  Of course, we may not see the collapse of Red China. We do realize the unemployment rate is what concerns. But we do see an even larger wealth discrepancy between the wealthy and the poor in Red China compared with the US or other developed countries. It is a price to pay when Red China still think the socialism is good for the country, but it is not actually. Red China should use privatization as the way to modernize its own nation. Let the market price plays its role to resolve the allocation issue of resource. It is the only way to let Red China find a way out of its trouble. 

  Dear American people, we do see the Fed and the Obama administration do a good job to reduce US government debt. It is a good sign even though the US may still need more than a decade to obtain the goal. But we do see American people try hard to help its own nation. Move on without turning back. Move on without pulling yourself back to those horrible things. Remember the victory belongs to the last man stands still between Red China and the US. I bet the US prevails because it has a free market mechanism. 

  Also, we expect US corporations may find their ways to reconnect with emerging markets on their own benefits. Everything is with a price. If those connections couldn't bring profits, who will do those kind of things?

Dear American people:

  Now we are facing the most jeopardized situation in the free world - an unsettled free market mechanism. In the free market, we know that people will buy a lot of narrow volatile financial products when facing fear. People will abandon any financial products with any possible large volatility when facing uncertainty. In the world of free market, we expect there is an mechanism helping us to tame down those uncertainty and embrace the chance of growth.

  I have to ask your pardon that I am a narrow volatility chaser. It is the reason why I expect the lower safer bond yield could bring lower cost for housing mortgage and other borrowing costs. BUT it may bring a disaster that the market loses faith on itself not to embrace the growth opportunity, especially when the world is facing the structural accomodation. Lately, we see the profit goes to the US affordable care (Obamacare). And we do expect the IT industries could against the wind and bring us some new big data applications. To connect all those appliances at home using IoT technology and facilities is a must-be evolution, but all those industrial development needs funding and investing.

  I hate to say the same thing could be approached by a big brother mechanism. Through the government's guideline, the industries could be funded and developed. But the overproduction and waste of resources could happen without proper market mechanism. It happens in the Eastern Asian and still goes on. But a free market mechanism may largely delay the development of necessary things - IoT and big data in the free world because of fear and uncertainty we face in stock markets.

  Dear American people, I have to urge you to embrace the change. It may bring you through some bumpy road. But if the market mechanism does any good to those evolutions, the result will be much better than a big brother guidance. It is a golden rule which always happens before. And it will still happen hereafter.

Dear American people:

  To embrace the conflict between Red China and other nations is not a good strategy for Taiwan. I have to urge our best American friends not to push us too hard. We can't irritate Red China, Japan or the US. We can't hurt our friends in those countries.

  I have to urge the US to consider the reconnection plan with emerging markets. To replace the role of Red China plays if necessary. It can keep the world safe and sound. It is a have-to-be-that way. With deep feeling inside, I am a Chinese and also a Taiwanese. Both roles are given in this small island whose name is Taiwan.

  I realize how frustrated that the US military feels about the China South Sea issue.We don't support any further expansion of Red China in the China South Sea. People in Taiwan are against further conflict among any nations and Red China. The only thing we should do is to ask all sides show their self-constrain.

  Red China needs to develop its own nation. So does Taiwan. People in Taiwan need a lot of friends all around the world, especially American friends. The US needs other strategies to deal with the issue of Red China's South China Sea. Taiwan could not afford to provoke any friend. We need all kind of friends to help us and let us have ability to feed our own people.

  It is the reason why the US should reconnect the US with emerging market nations as soon as possible, especially at the moment of strong US dollar these days. For a better US and a better world, American people have to think it hard than anything else.

  To be or not to be! May God bless us.

Dear American people:

  It is time to reconnect the US with those emerging markets and take the control right back from Red China. I hate to say that, especially in the time we have our presidential election tomorrow. Today is Jan 15,2015 when I write this stuff.

  Red China collapses in 2014. The reason why it can last so long without getting people noticed is because the US used too many QEs before. The Red China accumulates too much greenback. you can imagine a dying man with a lot of money around, what will this man do? He may spend all the money he earns before gets buried. The same thing goes to Red China these days.

  Red China already loses more than 1.5 trillion US dollars from June 2014 to the end of 2015. It is a conservative estimate. You know the Russia once had more than 524 billion  dollars as its foreign exchange reserve. Now the number is around 368 billion US dollars. The Malaysia has no more than 90 billion US dollars lately. The shrinking foreign exchange reserve goes from Brazil, Mexico, South Asian countries, South Korea and other emerging markets. So is the Red China. Wealthy people in Asian countries move the foreign exchange reserves from sovereigns to their own accounts. So does Russia.

  I know lately the stock market comovement between Red China and the US is large. But it can't hide the truth that Red China and the US face different situations. Red China does creates more than sixty million jobs from 2008 as they claim. The US creates more than 13.2 million jobs from 2008. That is truth. But the living standard of Red China is much lower compared with the US (around eight or nine to one). People may judge the thing in terms of the US dollar. Iis a false idea because we just see the RMB collapses lately. The falling RMB will make the purchasing power even worse.

  Nobody knows where the bottom of the RMB is in terms of the US dollar. The reason that Red China still let people feel OK because it prints even more RMB in its own country. The Red China authority uses the money illusion to make people feel comfortable. We all knows that the new economy is booming in Red China. The e-commerce is a hot issue in Red China because it provides a lot of jobs to people and it makes Chinese people busy. But we also knows that more than 50% e-commerce related corporations in Red China do not get their balance sheets out of red. So experts know that Red China still collapses in its own way we couldn't imagine. People in Red hina think they are wealthy because they have a lot of greenback before. If Red China doesn't find a way to have more greenback, they may use all out someday.

  It is time to disconnect the US stock market with the market movement of Red China. It is a false alarm because Red China is collapsing but the US is recovering from the old trauma lately. Red China still needs commodities, but the US doesn't. Red China and the US are in different moons.

  It is also the reason why people in Hong Kong are panic. There is a rumor saying that the Red China authority won't protect Hong Kong from the hard hit of financial storm this time. Because too many Chinese corporations in Red China uses Hong Kong as a base to hide their wealth and exchange their RMBs into the US dollars. It is the reason why Red China loses so much foreign exchange reserve which irritates the Beijing authority lately.

Dear Amercian people:

  I have written lots of words to you for many years. I know it sounds a little silly and stupid. But I won't let it go. I believe the United States of America is a great nation I have ever seen. I got a lot of education from American scholars, from their books, lectures and words. It always reminds me that the US is a great place with a lot of wisdom. Lately we see a lot of troubles happen in the US, the gun control issue, the racial discrimination and others. But I believe that American people have intelligence to make a difference.

  The followings are what I had written in 2013/12/6 on the board..I repeat those words to remind all American people that every thing never comes easy.. Change is always with tears and pains... But American people try hard to ...and accomplish many good things to your own people and the world....

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Dear American people:

  Just as Mr. Obama says to the world, Mr. Mandela teaches the world a lot of things. The most important one is to keep faith on ourselves. We are mankind, and we have intelligent to solve those conflicts between us or among us. We should have faith instead of fear on our minds. From 2008 to today, the America has created Eight Million Jobs for its own people. And we do expect the country can create more than two million jobs each year hereafter if the USA can keep a faster pace of growth. What a great accomplishment American people did!! What a great achievement that American people show to the world!!

  My Dear Amercian fellows, you have done a good job. But the world is still waiting. We are waiting for another miracle you can bring to your own people and the world. The unemplyment rate reaches to 6.5%, the saving rate increases to 10%. It means that the USA still lacks of six to seven millions jobs and everyone with a decent job can save more than ten percent of their earns. That is the goal. It is also a hope to American people and the rest of the world.

  My Dear American people, Mr. Mandela shows us even the world is full of struggle, even people sometimes turn their backs on us, if we have hope instead of fear, we can make a better world. Just keep on going, maybe like Forrest Gump, without looking back and having any second thought. It will be a great moment for American people to show the world. And there will be another miracle that American fellows can create, which is the SUM of HOPE instead of fear.

Dear American people:

  There are so many issues we could not solve lately and still need to think quite a lot. The first one is the relationship between the USA and the world. We know American has issued more than 4.5 trillion greenback to the world and the US has more than 17 trillion debt already. The US corporations need a weaker US dollar but other nations expect a strong US dollar. Every nation, using the US dollar as foreign exchange (FX) reserve, resents the idea of weak US dollar. But a strong US dollar policy may not be a good idea to the US these days.

  The second one is the US-Red China relation. It is quite complicat. The US needs Red China to support the whole world's economy to move but has a lot of doubt about the lately development of China South Sea. Red China does have its influence and gets its share even larger in the world. The One Belt-One Road policy goes making Red China have more business opportunities with Central Asian countries (Eurasia). Red China is growing and making its role there. The US may need to think another way to cope with the issue. 

  The third one is the US-Russia relation. People are questioning if the lately conflict between Turkey and Russia is provoked from the other nation leaking information to one side. It triggers more violence to the middle east. Ukraine is the nation that the US and the whole world should help. It leads the world to nowhere but triggers more violence and unsettled things if Turkey and Russia fight against each other. Russia may not be a nation we should respect a lot. Middle East will be a hard problem to the whole world unless those Arabian knows how to compromise wth each other without bullets.

  The fourth one is the US government-US big corporations relation. Lately, everyone is talking about the tax inversion. Irish is the nation we should respect. They try hard to increase their employment. They use every way to save the Ireland. It is time for the White House to make a difference for its relation with US big corporations. How to let those US big corporations send trillions of US dollar back home without too much tax burden is an emergency issue to solve lately.

  For those relations, I have no answer for American people. It all depends on the wish of American people. A big difference will be made to the world if American people try hard to solve one of them. I guess Red China and Russia may not be solved easily. But the last one, the US government and the US big corporations, can help American people have more benefits if trillions of US dollar go home.  The last issue of US big corporation needs American people think hard to solve as soon as possible.

  May God bless the US. Sincerely.