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Dear American people:

 It is time to take a serious look at the US dollar appreciation and Fed increases rate issues. Let's talk about the pro and con of those issues.

(1)The US dollar appreciation

 Pros -

 a. American people can buy cheaper import goods

 b. American people can use its appreciated currency to redominate the international affairs of trade

 c. American people can take advantage of the US dollar flowing back to the USA

 Cons -

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Dear American people:

  Here are my requests for the nearby Taiwan election of 2016.

 (1) Be prudent to face the visit of K-party president candidate to US: To be frankly speaking, I do support the president candidate of D-party and think Miss. Tsai is a proper one for our next leader in the island. I hope you could be prudent and careful to deal with the issue of the lately prepared US visit of K-party candidate.

(2) I urge you to consider sail across the Taiwan strait and South China Sea area with your aircraft carrier and its accompanies lately in order to ensure our election of 2016 to be fairly and properly chosen by whole Taiwan people. We do not think Red China may do any things this time. But I still urge you to help us if something accidently happens. To be cauious, I am asking for your help on our 2016 election issue.

(3)I urge you to consider SERIOUSLY to be the main shareholder of those important Taiwan enterprises in the semiconductor industriy. To own those companies is an important issue for Taiwan people lately because the Red China wants those ones badly. It will hurt the survival of whole free world and make people in Taiwan lose their everything if the Red China gets what it wants. People in Taiwan are afraid of the Red China but we still need the market of Red China to live upon. We need your help to consider be the main shareholder and to play a big role in daily management of those Taiwan companies in the semiconductor industry. American companies may cooperate with Japanese companies to have those Taiwan companies in the semiconductor industry. We need your help to protect our property and survival. We need those Taiwan companies to change their faces to be American ones if necessary. We need you to consider the issue seriously.

  Please help us. May God bless US.


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Dear American people:

  Do not just make my prediction to be true. It is a pretty silly act. If you do so, then I have to give you my latest prediction. That is the Dow Jones will stand on 18,000 in three months. The Nasdaq will stand on 5,000 in the new year's eve. And the S&P 500 will be top on 2,100 in January, 2016. It is my latest prediction. And the 10 year US treasury yield will be near 2.35% in 6 months.

  I reallly hope my prediction is wrong all the time. But you seem to be convinced by what I write and said. For me, the most ridiculous thing is you make my prediction come true. Always be. You make me become some worshiped one. I should be an anchorman or someone, I guess. You really embarass me quite a lot. I really hope you should keep a concious mind with everything. The US economy is not bad. You have 2.5% percent GDP growth this year. I have to tell you the truth that we in Taiwan have negative GDP growth in the Q3 this year and our government statistics shows that Taiwan may only have no more than one percent GDP growth this year. Compared with Taiwan and other emerging markets, the US is much better. The US economy is on the right track. But US corporations should not sells bonds, buyback shares and pay higher dividends ONLY. Don't do such a silly money game again. American corporations should invest and hire people. I guess the Obama administration should think hard. How come those US corporations and rch people do not like Mr. Obama that much? It is a psychologic issue. It is a political issue. It is not an economic issue anymore.

  The US government has the responsible to make whole American people happy to give. The Obama administration needs to do more to make US corporations want to hire more American people. To keep up with the real situation, the US government needs to negotiate with the US congress. The most important thing is Mr. Obama should compromise with the real situation happened in the US and make the situation to be calmed down and got better.

  All those years, I stay with American people. I do not make a fortune from those predictions even I seems to be somebody's worship. I do not think money is everything. I truely hope the USA could get all right. And the time is no different, I know the P/E ratio of American stocks may be a little higher than used to be. But I have to remind all American people that there are no so many QEs in the old days. The higher P/E ratio is a have to be because billions of US dollar come home and stay. And the money has nowhere to go. Unless you want your bond yield stay at very low level and you want your yield of two year Treasury stay in the negative territory like those nations of Swizerland, France and Germany, I guess the only way to keep those money flow is to let the money stay in the stock market. The US sotck market with higher P/E ratio is an inevitable thing this time. It is natural in those days until the Fed starts to withdraw those money from the market.

  Calm down, American people. This time the US is in a better shape. Don't make rich people become even richer. They can park their money in the bond market and wait for the very moment to sell bond at a really good price. Then they may wait until the right time to have those stocks you sell fearfully at a good bargain. In the end, you just make yourself worse and make those ones richer. Don't do such a thing like that to make yourself even worse. Please follow my suggestion and calm down. Help each other have a job and keep on your daily living.

  May God bless the US.


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Dear American people:

  American people should help each other to have a decend job and a life with happiness. No matter what dire situation poeple may face, please move on without hesitation. Just follow with your own conscious. Never give up. Always try to survive and help each other to live upon.

  I am not against Wall Street. But I do against those people who say the customer is their first priority but create a lot of nonsense & worthless financial products and sell those ones to innocence people at higher prices. On the other hand, they also short those financial instruments heavily to reward themselves. It is the part I hate most. I think American people treat those criminals too kind and even with careless. I do think the fine is not enough to stop those crimes happen again. But I do not have any better ideas for those kind of things, either.

  After all those years of rising financial markets around the world, we have to face the music. The US citizens have to face some well-known serious issues for years. The first one is the US government debt is more than 18 trillion USD, including 4.5 trillion US goverment debt held in the Fed's balance sheet. The burden of interest payment may crash the US society eventually. The people in the USA have to consider the issue seriously. I do not know if the US government could ask its debtholders to waive or restructure some, but the US has to face it eventually. To raise tax for super rich families is a have-to-be. To increase tax for those ugly financial transactions seems to be plausible. To reduce the cost of healthcare is a have-to-be-done. All those things breed another serious issue - the malfunction of US democratic system. A lot of people use the free market ideology as an excuse to protect their own interest but care less about the daily need of ordinary American people. In Taiwan, we try hard to reduce the price of medicine which makes big drug companies really upset. It brings another side effect where doctors can not be served by those drug companies well anymore. It may happen in the USA sooner rather than later. The medicare cost goes too high and too soon in the USA. All it brings to the fundamental issue - the quality of democracy - because we know how the congress reacts to those issues reluctantly. The often used slogan by the US Congress to do nothing is the free market mechanism. I don't think Mr. Obama is totally right because the communication seems to be a big failure between the White House and the US Congress. But American people have to be reminded that all advanced nations have a well functioning and efficient national healthcare system except the USA. It is a serious thing that the people lives in the home of braves should notice and think in a hard way.

  The second issue the USA should care is how the Fed reacts to those situations, including the internal fighting of mainland China and the collapsing of emerging markets. People do worry about the cost of raising Fed fund rate too quick and too soon may be harm. On the other side, if the Fed raises the rate too little and too slow, it may bring another disaster to the USA financial market because the property price may lose its gravity. The interest rate normalization could largely reduce the speculation of financial market and let the fund be located in a better way as it should be. There is always a tradeoff beteween raising and not raising rate. This time, the rate raising is good for the USA.

  In the same time, the USA does face many disputes in many ways - The lifestyle, the way of living in a ordinary life and the way to face the world problem. Consumption seems to be a true driver for the US society in old days. But a lot of US big corporations believe the USA can't grow more than two or two and a half percent each year anymore. The reason is due to the too much higher living standard and too much stringent retirement or pension cost of ordinary American workers. The latest important cost is the Obamacare which may bring trillions visible debt to US corporations if the medicare cost could not be resolved in a proper way. It may bring even more doubt to hire more American people these days. If the issue can not be resolved progressively, all those cost have to be taken by all American people in a debt form of US TreasuryMr. Trump does believe the US has a better system which makes all those resources be allocated efficiently. But Mr. Trump would not dare to say the cost of medicine or medicare in the USA is the most efficient compared to other nations. The truth is the USA has the most lousy medicare system which is expensive and inefficient compared with others. On the other hand, it does bring a lot of new jobs for American people because the reward is tremendous but not reasonable. All the reason is due to the free market mechanism. But we know the debt level of US household can not go on forever. It leads to a serious question, what if the consumption can not play a bigger role for the USA anymore because the debt of household may be too high already. In this case, what else can be the driving force to the growth of USA? The answer seems to be obvious - investment. Only new investments bring new wealth to American people and the USA. Big US corporations should stop buyback shares and pay lucrative dividends only.

  This time, the USA should play the role as those years the mainland China does. We may expect the switch role of China and the USA. China transforms itself in the mode of consumption and the USA transforms to investment. China may waste too much money to invest itself already but the USA knows how to intelligently allocate fund because of a well functioning financial system. To renovate all those older stuffs of USA seems to be the first priority lately. The USA needs high-speed railroad. The USA needs new ways of thinking on how to let student learning cost be trim down in a reasonable range. The USA has to think hard how to make those technologies be used for creating more jobs for American people. Those kind of things have not be done by Mr. Obama and the US congress enough. It should be done by all American people. The free market mechanism is not an excuse amymore. Innovation should become as a useful money-making machine in the USA through a lot of subsidies from the US government, including the state governments and the central one, just like old days. Mainland China uses a lot of susidies for their own enterprises is right because the USA has done the same thing a couple of decades ago. It is the thing Mr. Trump seems to get it wrong. It is the thing even Ms. Hilary seems not to know it well.

  If the US wants to have a leap growth rate again, then the USA needs lots of social evolutions. To change the lifestyle which does not depend on oil-based drivers is the issue. To have a better and cheaper education system is anthor. To make American people live healthier and happier is the other. All those things may bring a new lifestyle and some new concepts on how to have a decent life in the US. American people should try to change their mindset such as how to develop a more efficient share economy and how to live in a more environment-friendly world. The Japanese people buy less cars even Toyota makes a lot of cars around the world in this decade. People in the mainland China use high-speed railroad more often and try to innovate their ways of living on a share economy in a more energy efficient way. All those things may bring down the living cost larger than American people could conceive. If American people want to have more than five percent economic growth rate each year, then the first priority is to give up the olddy and to embrace a new way of living.

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  Let us consider the Fed fund rate raising or not again.

  Mrs. Yellen already declares the Fed will eventually raise rate this year. To increase rate sooner rather than later means the Fed could fine tune its monetary policy thereafter. But if the Fed does not raise rate this September, it means that the Fed has to raise rate later. There are only TWO times left this year. The uncertainty will be largely reduced rather than increased because the Fed leaves less choice on the table as the time is limited. According to the experience of Sweden which implements the negative rate policy, people have to sacrifice their principal money when saving in the bank, their house prices go up more than 10 percent during the time. People will try to find something else to preserve their purchasing power, so the money goes to property. On the same reasoning, it means that to prolong too lower interest rate policy a longer time may trigger unexpected higher property price in the USA. Of course, Mr. Trump may get even richer just as his own claims on the spotlight. But it may hurt the dream of ordinary American people who wants to have a shelter.

  The late triggering of the rate may have some impact for the rest of the world. It may let the greeback to appreciate even more and make the US Treasuries even worthy. The yield rate of US Treasuries may go even lower which push other yields of fixed income securities go lower. If the claim sustains, the Fed should raise rate slower and later because of a strong US dollar policy. But we do not see that happening because other nations are forced to liquidate their US Treasuries or other US dollar-dominated assets to curb their own currency depreciations. The 40% US Treasuries are owned by non-American or other nations. If the US dollar appreciates even more during the time where Fed are not eager to raise rate, then the yield of US Treasuries may not get lower but higher when other nations try hard to protect their currencies by selling US dollars. The bright side is those countries will largely trim down their US dollar-dominated foreign reserves. The dark side is the American financial agents will have to buy even more US Treasuries in the time where the Fed still waits and sees. Of course, it breeds other question that many foreigners may be eager to hold US Treasuries to conterbalance the US Treasuries selling of some foreign sovereigns as their home currencies depreciate a lot. In the end, the yield of US Treasuries goes up or down depends on the reward of stock markets or other alternative investments. If the uncertainty remains, stock markets may go down and alternative investments go sour, then the yield of US Treasuries will go south rather than north. It may be a good thing for US citizens who own US property and try to pay down mortgage. But it definitely hurts the people who live upon stock market or other alternative investment.

  The history tells us that, during the Fed raises rate, the most hurting people are investment bankers. I think this time is no difference. The Fed raises rate means the US economy has more strength to deal with other financial shocks because the Fed has some measures to fine tune the rate. The more rate raising the Fed does, the more tools the Fed has for the rainy day. People all around the world already prices in the Fed's rate raising in the US Treasuries. If Fed leaves the rate on hold this time, it means that people have to lower the yield of US Treasurires again. It may bring more US dollar back home of US land because the uncertainty remains. It may be a good news for those people want the greeback go home. But it creates other uncertain moments for the rest of the world again. People do expect the day after Fed rasing rate, the market calms down and the investment booms again. Then we may have a merried Christmas. Or we may have to guess again until the Fed raises rate this year eventually.

  For better or worse, the first Fed Fund rate raising of USA does not hurt the US much. It is a well expected thing. But it means quite lots to the rest of the world. Because all other stock markets and alternative investors have to accomodate the Fed's monetary policy accordingly. It may trigger some enormous costs to the rest of the world.

  To raise or not to raise seems not to be a big headache for the Fed ONLY.


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Dear American people:

  After several weeks observation, it seems that the US Fed should raise its Fed fund rate little by little and maybe 1/8 or 1/4 percent this September. China is an irrelevant issue whether the Fed raise rate or not lately. The rate raising of Fed will have some effect for the US economy which brings the ripple effect to the Chinese RMB eventually. But the interest rate normalization is important to the US today. And the most important issue to the USA lately is it lacks interest rate tool in its toolbox - The USA has no interest rate tool anymore if it faces another crisis in its homeland - because it can not decrease its rate to be negative as European countries do, such as Switzerland. Or will the Fed do that??

  China is an irrelevant issue to the Fed's raising rate due to several observations: (1)China does increase its world trade in different ways: The first one is Chinese people do trade with other nations a lot because they travel and bring foreign-made goods back home. Those figures are included in the outflow of China which largely reduced foreign reserve. It shows that China still trade with other nations, especially Japan. Chinese people travel to Japan will bring a lot of Japan-made or China-made & Japan-Designed goods back home. Those goods are not been taxed by Chinese government and are not counted in its world trade with other nations. The seond one is Chinese students have spent billions of US dollars in the undergraduate or graduate schools abroad, including the US, the UK and others. Those services can not be counted as trade. But Chinese people do increase their tradings with other nations. (2)China should devaluate its RMB currency and it is an inevitable act but with wrong perception of mainland China central government: China has no well-functioning financial market to accomodate its currency movement. It is a price to pay for this second largest economic unit if RMB can not adjust its situation with world economy. The RMB currency rate is set up by the government. It may create a lot of currency arbitrage crises through different channels for China. The one is from attacking the Hong Knog dollar to force HKD abandon the peg to the US dollar. The other is already happening amid Chinese people traveling or buying all over the world. All those kind of things show the wrong RMB pegging to the US dollar. If Chinese people love to use the products manufactured in the Japan and West Europe, then the RMB should be pegged or adjusted with Japanese Yen and the Euro accordingly. The RMB should not peg itself to the US dollar only. It is a wrong strategy because the USA is not the most important trade partner of mainland China anymore.

  American stock and bond markets are relevant to the rate raising issue as follow: (1)The S&P 500, the DJ index and the Nasdaq index are all at their higher levels. Any irrelevant or relevant information can be an excuse making those indices go down horribly. But the US economy is still resilient after those corrections. We may see those corrections become some false alarms. It is a way people try to make money from others in the market without any cost. It is a way to make easy money. So the Fed should look at the economic indicators and true economic numbers seriously without disturbing from those nonsense risk arbitrage actions. After all, the index goes up or down depends on the soundness of economy in the long term. The fed should not consider the short-term market disturbance as an excuse not to prepare itself for a truly rainy day. The lack of interest rate tool is what the Fed faces lately. To raise interest rate to the normal level is a responsible act that the Fed should do for the future of whole American people. To raise rate is a honorable action to the Fed these days. When the US economy finally goes down a couple of years hereafter, then the Fed could have the interest rate tool to tune the US economy. (2)The US dollar appreciation should not be a big concern this time: It is an inevitable action that the US dollars flow from emerging economies to the USA. The reason is due to the several times of US QEs and not because the US has greater achievement in its economy. We do not see those US big corporations bring those manufacturing jobs back to the US when the US dollar depreciates a lot. We also do not see those US big corporations reduce its workload in the US as the US dollar appreciates lately. For the USA, it is just the side effect of US QEs. It is a short term effect because the money knows well where it should go. If those emerging markets have lucrative investment opportunities, the money will flow out of the USA. The Fed should not consider the strong US dollar this time. The US dollar will depreciate as the US economy goes much slower than other nations eventually. But the time has not come yet. (3)To raise rate back to its normal level could be used to prevent the crash of a much higher US stock and bond markets. It may be another crucial thinking for the Fed to raise rate gradually. It is a must-be act for the Fed NOW.


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Dear American people:

  I have to urge you to compromise with the reality. It is the fact that the US needs other nations' help to grow. I have to remind Americans several points that all American people should know about the oil price and its related issues. (1)The US has its own shale oil to exploit. The lately year shows the higher oil price does benefit some states in the US but harm to other states. American people have to decide the future of those exploitation workers. (2) The US car industry is important for US job growth. The history shows the lower the oil price, the higher sales volume of fuel-driven cars. American poeple should also understand the sales of electric car made in the US also depends largely on higher oil price. (3)The trading relation with new friend Iran: The Iran has oil to trade with American people. If the oil price is too low, it may hurt Iran's ability to absorb goods made by Americans and the rest of world. But if the oil price is too high, it may also benefit the Russia. There is a tradeoff American people have to rebalance. (4)The danger of deflation under the strong US dollar: We know the wage growth does happen in the US. We expect it is not a sign of vicious inflation circle but a good sign for the economic growth. American people have to think hard if the too low oil price may drag American back to the path of deflation, especially in the situation of maybe-too-stronger US dollar.(5) From the history, we know that as the Fed increases the rate, the best industry benefits most is the technology sector and others who depend on commodities least. The lately technology improvement in the US is all about environmental friendly ones. A lower oil price may be an impediment to the further development of fuel-substitute technology. It is the issue American people have to think hard. It is also the reason why we do not see some big financial improvement about those PC-related companies lately which are once regarded as the frontier tech several years ago. American people use the electronic facility to communicate instead to compute. It is the reason why Apple's stock price is well above Microsoft lately. The PC-related industry is in lower growth stage, but those tech companies help people to communicate each other are still growing. Apple and Teslar are both great companies who depend on not-too-lower oil price to develop its latest new car technology. American people have to think hard if it is the time to give up the fuel-based economy and move on to something else. If so, what will those fuel-related US companies go??

  I do not have answers for all those phenomena, just provide them to American people. American people should compromise or have some rebalancing strategies for all those things. Lower oil price, stable economy, rate raising, the trade relation and others are all important for the US to grow in the future. It is American people have to face.


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Dear American people:

  It is a new world you have to face lately. I encourage you stop using old means to resolve new issues. You have to think broader than your grandparents do. American people have to embrace those ones with different culture which have no democracy but with booming economy. You know what I mean is not just China, those countries in the Africa are included.

  American people should embrace those countries you once think as your national enemy and trade with them to improve both living standards. Yes, BOTH living standards. American people now embrace Cuba, Iran and those countries in Africa. It is a right path. American people can know them better through trading with them. American people can learn how to respect others' difference and understand daily life of those people. It is a new age. American people can find different ways of living from trade. All those opportunities come out with a lot of unthinkable jobs for the US. Ameican people should be encouraged to invent all those things all over again.

  I encourage American people abandon the ultimate way of strong US dollar because the US has piled up debt more than 10 trillion US dollar. I urge all American people stop thinking in old ways which may bring the US to the world's center again. It is possible but with a lot of cost. American people should use every means to stop the lately appreciation of US dollar. It hurts the world economy and the US. I also encourage American people to think BIG that trade with other nations is the only way to improve American people's lives. Accompaning with not-that-strong US dollar and new trade relations with new friends may be a way to rebalance the world, especially in a world which is built by the conflict of US and China lately. China is famouos in the dark continent, Africa. It is nobody can deny that American people want to make new friends in Africa. It is a right thing to do. American people can use the same trade concept to Afircan countries as used to be with China in two decades. American people can use cheaper labor of African to satisfy its need. It may not be a dream, but it does have a long way to go.

  I encourage American people trade with Iran and other nations in the middle east. It will be a gold mine if the trading volume increases. I also encourage American people to think broader these days and not use the old ways to deal with the currency issue of US dollar. Bring US dollar home is not a good idea to American people this time because American people can not grow itself anymore without larger trading volumes with others. It is a truth that no one can deny. American poeple have to change their mind sets this time and forever. It is a new age that American people have to think hard how to invent all those things with new friends all over again as used to be with old friends.

  It is a new age which American people should abandon the beggar-your-neighbor policy. A string US dollar is the one. The Fed should reconsider if it is necessary to give up raising rate in this year. The Fed should reconsider if it is not a proper time to raise rate when the world need more trading volumes which can improve American people's lives. A stronger US dollar hurts American corporations also. To bear a little wage inflation is not a harm thing to the US this time because the wealth discrepacy is even larger in the USA. American people need to create value and improve the discrepancy between wealthy and poor Americans. It is a lose-lose situation if the US dollar goes even higher. American people should use every way to stop this kind of thing and refocus on how to increase the trading volume between the US and the whole world. It brings wealth to ordinary American people which do not enjoy the benefit of all those QEs in the US but suffer from the lately appreciation of US dollar.

  May God bless the US.


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Dear American people:

  There is always something to complain about. The US does have 17 trillions debt. To see this number closely, you may find out the following numbers

  2 trillion for GSE(Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac)

  4.5 trillion in the hand of Fed

  A binch of billions for US corporations (GM, AIG and others)

  IF you deduct those numbers from the 17 trillion debt, you may find that Mr. Obama doesn't create too much debt for the USA. The number is no more than some billions in those 7 years compared with other presidents of USA. It should be reminded those days are the greatest financial crisis in the late 50 years. Of course, Mr. Obama didn't create too much benefit for the whole USA either. 

  Mr. Obama just brings some great ideas to the nation and teams up a good management team for American people.


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  It is our great honor to have Mr. Bernanke come to Taipei this time. We are delighted to hear from him. For Mr. Bernanke, it is a long journey from the USA to here. For us, it reminds people those years when Mr. Bernanke holds the Fed position.

  When President Bush Jr. wants to find the successor of elder Wall Street savor, Mr. Greenspan, a lot of people regarded Mr. Bernanke as the one. When Mr. Bernanke tries hard to resolve the issue of autopilot mode of US financial market. It is not an easy task to use the unorthodox move of Quantitative Easing. When people finally realize what pros and cons the QE brings. Mr. Obama makes up his mind to find the successor of next Fed chief. Those times for Mr. Bernanke are both hard to forget. The day he got chosen to be the chief and the day he was unrelunctant to leave even he thought he has not fulfilled the job yet. All those things should be memorized. All those moments are definitely Mr. Bernanke should not forget.

  I think Mr. Bernanke is in title to win Nobel Economic Prize for his controversial QE actions. Those QEs should be symbolized as the great successful move in the US monetary history. We need to notice that "the inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" has not come yet when Mr. Bernanke left his duty. Lately, in this year, we finally see the wisdom, the connection between inflation and monetary expansion policy, has been materialized in the USA. It may let us think on how come the effect comes so late with those actions. To be honest, a lot of people know it well - Because the US can not ask their enterprises to increase the payroll as soon as possible like China. It should be recalled that the first mover of quantitive easing in this century is not the USA but China. China asks all their local enterprises to increase the payroll of workers in 2012. When those things happen, we see the inflation comes to China. The same principle will be applied to the US these days.

  You may question the role that Mr. Bernanke plays in those QEs. But we can not question the determination of Mr. Bernanke. He does bring the US out of financial crisis storm. He does bring the US back on its normal track. He does realize how important those US financial institutions can be or should be. He does know it well how to bring the US out of recession. Those are materialized in front of us. But it is not Mr. Bernanke's own credit. The credit should go to whole American people. A good communication brings US people wisdom they could not have a century ago. Many good discussions between those pros and cons make Mr. Bernanke a great man in the history. From this point, we should take Mr. Bernanke as a hero. It is a great thing to have Mr. Bernanke which needs to be portrayed. Mr. Bernanke is a hero when he starts those QEs and makes them work.

  On the other hand, Mr. Bernanke should be considered as a man without conscious mind as Mr. Paulson. The less regulated US financial market brings this disaster to people all around the world. At 2006, Mr. Bernanke took the office of Fed. Mr. Paulson has been considered as the one who lost his head in those financial crisis years of 2007-2008. So was Mr. Bernanke. They both are the believer of free market economy. They both believe the financial market has self-chosen ability. The market could tell people which is good or bad. Unfortunately, it doesn't happen without proper financial regulation. It is not a well funtioning financial market when people ignore the information asymmetric issues of financial tradings or financial innovation. In those issues, Mr. Bernanke is treated as a symbol of soft heart and without determination to get the US straight. It is the reason why Mr. Obama insists to let Mr. Bernanke go. The credit of Mr. Bernanke is largely reduced by those soft inactions. I still think Mr. Bernanke should have a Nobel Economic Prize. Not because Mr. Bernanke is good looking or something else, but because Mr. Bernanke does bring the US back on its normal track with every measure he has.

  A hero or a loser? To be honest, it leaves others to judge. For me, it is a long time we see those years of Mr. Bernanke when he takes the office of Fed. It is a long journey to see the US gets well in those years. The credit goes to Mr. Bernanke and whole American people. It should be remembered and not to forget. Of course, I doubt this view. People are so easy to forget what they have done before.

  To me, Mr. Bernanke is both a hero and a loser. He is a hero to bring the US back on track. But he is also a loser when he doesn't have courage to fight against the vicious Wall Street bankers. We still not see the justice comes until the US judge those outlaw villains. Maybe those days will not come easy when American people are still without concious minds yet.


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Dear American people:

  The monetary policy has its limitation on the structural change of economy. The same principle applies to the US Fed.

   The US Fed on raising rate may have a longer-term time-lag effect this time. People would suggest that if the Fed is determined to raise rate, then the rate raising should be earlier rather than later. The bond market reaction to the first rate raising would be much slower than expected because everyone holds the US Treasuries and no one wants to lose money. But it should not stop the determination of Fed's policy maker on the base-rate nomalization because we may find that the inflation comes to the US in an unexpected way.

  The ultra-low rate envorinment is bad for US economy lately because we don't see any solid production increasing in the US. A figure shows that there are below 50% US families have their own houses after the 2008's crisis. It seems to suggest that even the Fed raises the base rate more than half a percent, it may not have some big impact to ordinary American people as used to be. On the contrary, it may push the interest rate of US back to its normal level. Those retirees in the US who depend on interst rate payments from the bank or the Treasuries may feel happier. The ultra-low rate doesn't give any real meaning to the US except those speculative avtivities. As the time comes and the Fed prepares for nothing, it will be a hard time for the decision maker to realize that the inflation does come for which nobody is well prepared.

  The history of ultra-loosing quantitative easing of Japan lets us know that those stronger international companies of Japan would become even stronger after those QEs. We already see the same thing happen on big US corporations. But it doesn't make Japanese happier or feel financial safer in those years of Japan's QE because the structure of Japan economy doesn't change accordingly. The property price of Japan goes down more than two decades. It may even make the thing worse for those corporations which should go bankrupt but not. The ultra-loose monetary policy is bad to the economy because the financial market may lose its self-selective ability to make those viables survive and desert those malfunctions.

  The Fed should have some deep thoughts about where the US economy should go. The USA still has advanced technologies and well-educated people. The US should change its way on some big innovations. People all around the world needs clean drinkable water. People all around the world needs foods away from starvation. In the near future, we may even see those issues happen in the USA if the clean water issue is neglected and the world's weather is unpredictable. It is a reason why people believes the bad weather and short of clean drinkable water may push the food price to go up. It may eventually push up the inflation rate all around the world in an unexpected way which includes the USA.

  Dear American fellows, I remind you several times before. The reason to use the QE is to let every American people have a job to live upon rather than to let those sepculators make money from messing up financial markets. But we still do not see the thing happen. A lot of American people give up to find a job. The labor participation rate is well below the average of history. If the QE has its limitation, then we should stop using QEs anymore. The history of Japanese QE is a disaster that other nations should not follow. The structural change of economy should be the first priority for the US if American people still want the Fed to keep the rate lower enough for a longer period. The USA should come out with new industries. American people should think hard about the issue of what the world needs in the following decades. We will have a lot of people live on the earth. We will need a lot of clean drinkable water and food to feed those people. What American people can do is to figure out how to resolve those issues and turn those innovations into gold.

  American people have to forget the old-day glory. Those days are gone. People all around the world need something new except the internet-related things. People need foods to survive. People need some basic elements to live on such as food. Higher technology is useless if we have no food to eat. Advanced fancy things become worthless if we have no clean water to drink. Go back to the basic and come out with something new is what American people should help. The world needs a brand-new USA with new structure of economy which cares the basic need of human race.

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Dear American people:

  It is the issue American people have to face lately-the true nature of US dollar. It is a conflict or a dispute on whether the US dollar should go up or down. If the Fed trims down its balance sheet by selling those securities back to the financial market, we will see a large decrease of US dollar supply all around the world. Then we have to face an even stronger US dollar in the near future. If we see the Fed increases the Fed fund rate little by little rather than rebalancing its balance sheet too much, then we may see the US dollar moves in a slow motion and becomes even volatile as the Fed increases its pace to have a higher base rate. The former or the latter may not be that good to whole American poeple. The US is not stronger enough to face those problems as used to be. A lot of American people have no money in their pockets and a large sum of student loan on their shoulders. The US corporations depend largely on international trade these days. It is a fact.

  The other reason is due to the fact that the US has its technology advantage over other nations and the value is needed to be shown from a cheaper US dollar. If the US dollar appreciates too much, it may hurt the value of offshore earnings of international US corporations. Those technologies have their values for other nations but they may be needed in a cheaper way. People may disagree with this viewpoint as the outsourcing is easy to be done by international US corporations and the growth of those corporations can still be fulfilled in a stronger US dollar environment. I doubt this kind of statement. There is anohther viewpoint which points out the time to focus on the US domestic growth is coming. This may be true if Amercian people can grow by themselves without trading with others. BUT the US corporations still need to sell software products and related services to other nations which can bring huge profit to the US. The US international corporations do have many advantages to run the same kind of business compared with other firms in the world. A stronger US dollar may hurt financial book of US companies. The profit of internaitonal US corporations will go down more than we know when the US dollar appreciates much more. It is a conflict between the US Fed policy and the US corporations.

  From the stand point of American people, a stronger US dollar means that people in the US can enjoy cheaper import goods. The increasing comsumption power of American people gets from stronger US dollar. The history shows that American people know how to take advantage of stronger US dollar. It also shows that American consumers could decide what the world needs. But I have to remind all American people this time is different because the US has 17 trillion debt in hand lately. The consumers in China already replace the role that American people had. China is the first trade partner to many nations and regions. The biggest trade partner of China is the Euro union rather than the US. It is the real issue what American people do not need to consider two decades ago. It is a price to pay to let more than seven million American people have decent jobs. So the problem  goes to the big issue that is how the Fed could resolve the conflict between a stronger US dollar and the profitability of US international corporations and how the Fed can let American people have their payrolls increased instead to hurt the US currency credibility. It is a serious issue American people have to face.

  From the other perspective, those nations like Brazil used to issue the US dollar-dominated sovereign debt. Those nations will be hurt a lot from a stronger appreciation of US dollar. It will hurt the trade relation between the US and those nations. The US investors would also be hurt. Those countries also includes the Ukraine and other nations who depend on the US heavily to rebuild their dire nations. If the US dollar goes even higher, it is expected the emerging market debts, especially those ones with US dollar-dominated non-US sovereign debt issues, will be hurt even harder than we know. It is bad to the whole world.

  The US links itself with other nations in a tigher situation in decades. If others go down, it means that the US may go down as well. If the US can find the way to have more than three percent GDP growth each year without other nations' help. It is fine to have a stronger US dollar currency. But if it is not the case, then the Fed still needs to know it well on the too-stronger US dollar issue. It is what the globalization means and it is an another issue that the Fed has to consider. A stronger US dollar may hurt those US domestic investors such as the CAPLERS or the Yale University foundation as well. The world is closely connected under the US dollar flow. That is what an international tradable currency means.


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Dear American people:

  It is time to admit that the US does have a structural problem on employment issue which is bad for US employees to get their payrolls increased. The reason is obvious due to the globalization. Big US corporations use cheaper manufacturers outside the USA. All the job increase in the US seems to be part-time or lower-skilled service jobs which need people to take care. In the end, it can't bring the wage increase when a lot of Americans seek similar jobs. We do see improvement of US economy. It shows two sides of the story. Those US corporations who can use the globalization well do oursource their needs to those manufactures outside the USA. Those US big corporations who get the most benefit from the appreciation of US dollar will go even further to outsource more production goods to other nations and sell those ones back to the USA. It is the detriment to American people. The profit of US corporations to take those steps will go up. The advantage of globalization for those American corporations who love to use cheaper labors outside the USA is revealed. US corporations love to employ non-Americans who have the same skill as Americans from the viewpoint of cost reduction.

  It brings an even severe question to American people which is the cost to have US higher education seems to be too high from the perspective of US globalization. If US big corporations don't want to pay more to American people with higher education. How do you expect American people with bachelor or master degree could pay down their student loans just in a couple of years? How could you expect those knowledge will not depreciate in a couple of years? It will bring down the value of US higher education. If all those student loans have to be extended or to be paid in a longer period of time, then how could you expect those ones with higher education have the money to save for their retirements or to raise their own families? It is a vicious circle and will be that way behind every American's imagination. It is a bad signal which makes people wonder whether the cost to get a bachelor or master degree in the USA is worthy. American higher education is a luxury thing that American people could not afford. It will a serious issue for Americans to know the deep meaning better. It is a big question for every American.

  May God bless...

 


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Dear American people:

  The world enters into a different area people never see before, especially for the USA. The US becomes the most productive country of oil. The energy companies of US play their big roles for the US financial markets lately. American people should think hard about the reduction of its oil ouput.

  From a long time ago, the US is the symbol of higher technology. And it still has its edge in many means. The business solution of corporations in the US is still quite ahead of other nations. Of course, there is a big jump leap in China. China is sophsticated in the software and hardware applications but is still lack of core technology. China has limited ability to have its higher-end technology independence. China relies heavily on many basic elements that the world creates to develop its applications. The platform, the standard and all the higher end core technologies are all those things.

  American people should think hard about the issue of environmental protection. American people should figure out if it is a necessary thing to reduce its oil output because we need other technologies to replace the world of petrochemical material. It is a must-be. Dear American people, people all around the world think the shale oil strategy is just a temporary thing for all American people to resolve its unemployment problem. In the end, American people should depend heavily on the technology to have their own livings. People all around the world need the electrical car and a clean but cheaper human drinkable water supply. That is waht American people should help the world to have.

  I urge all American people to realize when is the proper moment to stop overproducing oil after the full employment jobs are stablely created in the US. I also encourage American people back to the core advantage that the US used to be. It is the applications of technology and many new ideas creation and realization. Of course, American people should have more savings in their pockets. It is the only way to let the US economy have a real long-term prosper and peaceful mind.

  May God bless you.


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Dear American people:

  A strong US Dollar policy may not be that bad this time. Yes, it is a beg-your-neighbor policy to withdraw billions of US dollars from the world and back to the States. But you have to understand it is a have-to-be that way. China has used billions of US dollars to build its world bank with others and subsidize a lot of countries for specific purposes. They lend the US dollars to specific nations and ask those countries use the money buy products made in China or use the money let those Chinese infrastructure companies build things in those nations. It is a warning sign to the USA. People use your own currency to expand its economic territory and try to become a big player in the world. American people may tolerate it, but the world has different views. A new form of economic war has begun for several years and it will continue to be that way. This time, the weapon is the US dollar.

  To withdraw the liquidity may hurt some nations who can not help the US rebuild real economy. All those nations who contribute to all American people's needs can survive. That is what it counts. To contribute something to the growth of USA which also helps itself to grow. That is what we look forward to seeing those dreams happening again and again.

  Dear American fellows, let the dream go on and take some rest in the holiday season. Next time, when time comes, we may see the wing changes. But not for now yet, and not this time.


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Dear American people:

   After those years Mr. Obama has been through with all American people, it is time for you to realize that Mr. Obama is quite a good choice for the USA in a decade. Maybe Mr. Obama is too good to be true for the whole American people. There is a rumor saying that Mr. Obama may not get elected in 2008, so members of Democreatic party chose him to be the candidiate. I know it sounds crazy but the Democratic party does not support Mr. Obama enough even when Democratic party holds both US Sneate and US House seats. American people choose the Republican to be the majority in both congresses lately means that they want Republicans to face same challenges with Mr. Obama. They want all American  politicians to work together to deal with America situations.

  Mr. Obama did nothing wrong lately. He is fully awared the strength and weakness of Quantitative Easing. It is the reason why he knows the immigration issue has to go on. The QE of Japan shows a big weakness that when the QE og Japan was performed, it provides liquidity to the whole world.  But Japan can not get enough benefits from its own QEs because Japan has higher living standard and closes its border for foreigners. The job of low skilled worker in Jaopan can not be filled with lower wages and those low payroll jobs do not exist in Japan. The immigration relief of US does solve those problems. The most important part of immigration issue is those workers will consume and live in the USA. So the mostly payrolls they earn will be left in the USA. They consume what they earn mostly because those jobs are with lower payrolls. American people may blame for those immigrations to be the reason of lower growth of US payroll increase lately. Compared with 2007, today, the payroll increase of 2014 is lower than one percent (2.1% vs 3.1%). But American people neglect several points about the payroll increase.

   The first issue is the banking lending of 2014. Compared with the banking lending of 2007, even Mr. Bernanke can not get refinanced for his own house in 2014. The monetary expansion effect of US QEs is not as we expect than used to be. The US banks become cautious about the borrowing and lending to ordinary small and midsized US corporations (SME) and US individuals. On the other side, it is great for the whole US financial system which shows those banks will not face severe bad loans as it faced in 2007-2008. The second issue is the US living standard. The US living standard is so high which need a lot of money to suppport. Or the deflation effect will be easily found in the US if US citizens stops borrowing from abroad or domestic to support their own living standards. The higher living standard needs higher payroll or higher borrowing to support. As it has been shown lately, we know the borrowing just can not happen because the US houlseholds already face higher debt burden from 2008. The most payrolls or investment profits they earn go largely to reduce their own debts lately. How can you expect the payroll increase that much when US banks stop loaning and the US saving rate is still in the lower level compared with 30 or 40 years ago? Both issues mentioned above show reasons for the weakness of US payroll increase. Those vulnerabilities need time to fix and need a lot of savings to resolve. It is just the beginning year of US reviving. American people need to work even harder to make the US back on its normal track.

  People often mention that the China seems to be in better shape. The most difference is the China has closed economy which forbid their citizen to invest abroad or just with a lot of restrictions. Also, the Chinese RMB can not be float traded freely in the international markets. The RMB is not an international currency yet. So even the Chinese banks all have larger bad loans to be cleared, those issue will not have side effects on its currency and other nations as the USD. The USA is an open society and the US Dollar is an international currency. The QEs of US have big impacts on other nations already. All those comparisons between the China and the US are not reliable. The Chinese authority can print a lot of RMB to support all Chinese banks with bad loans at no cost to international society except Hong Kong and Taiwan. Chinese banks can even forbid its owners of saving account to withdraw lots of RMB in one day or in a longer period of time. It will not happen in the USA. American people will not tolerate those things happen in the USA. A free society just has to deal with its own issues with different ways. American people have to realize that every American citizen deserves to have a better healthcare because the USA is an advanced nation compared with the China. The Chinese authority can not let its people have good healthcare because it just worries the healthcare cost is well beyond its ability to afford. The Chinese society just can not afford the cost to let every Chinese have a good healthcare. I still believe American people whould find a way to compromise those benefits and costs on the public healthcare issue. It is an issue we also face lately in Taiwan.


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  美國,很多人十幾年以前心目中的夢想國度,如今已經不再閃耀,取而代之的是大家突然發現原來美國像是一個積勞成疾的老頭子,送進了加護病房當中,醫生只能拚著老命維持著美國這個老頭子的呼吸正常,其他的就束手無策;美國的問題很多,最重要的是觀念,美國人總是很自豪自己的人力品質很高,因此美國境內的競爭很激烈,將美國近年來的需求與各種問題都歸因於此,其實那是錯誤的看法.印度雖然人口眾多,平均上很貧窮,但是印度的有錢人很多,印度有知識與人力品質高的人也不少,中國更不在話下,中國的人力品質近年來確實是大幅度提高,中國境內的競爭更激烈,中國近年來的需求卻並沒有很明顯的不振,中國也從來不以為中國的人力品質大幅提升之後,中國的未來需求會降低很多.

 美國的問題很多,就像一個進了加護病房的老頭子,目前只能依靠機器呼吸,希望這個老頭子自己突然變年輕或是返老還童,確實是需要很大的功夫.美國人的儲蓄不足是一個很大的問題,而儲蓄不足的議題連帶影響了很多美國社會與經濟的發展,美國的基礎教育是否有問題,很多美國人都討論過,台灣目前也有類似的問題,那就是很多孩子根本不喜歡讀書,從國小國中到高中,學校受到的教育品質也不是很好,自然進了技術學院與大學之後,您能期待這些不喜歡讀書的孩子有很驚人的表現嗎?所有的事情都是一點一滴的,大學教育與技職教育要能夠成功,還是需要一些底子的累積,很多技職教育的成功,其實是在實作經驗上的累積,透過學校的設備與教學,讓學生能夠充費體驗與明白自身從事行業的諸多細節,同樣地,大學教育要能夠成功也有賴於過往的累積,一個念會計的學生,如果對於數字與諸多借貸方的來來去去沒有去了解,試問這個學生能夠知道如何做比較複雜的會計原則處理嗎?同樣地,一個念數理的學生,如果沒有累積大量的基礎數學知識,這個學生能夠有能力處理比較高等的數學與相關原理原則的科目嗎?答案都不需要再說明,美國一直很自豪自身的高等教育成功,但是事實上是美國的基礎國小國中高中教育其實並不成功,大家如何預期學生花了至少三四百萬念了大學之後,只花四年就能彌補過往十六七年的空白呢?這裡面就萌生了第一個問題,照這樣的說法,美國的高等教育是不是早已經過度商業化與被昂貴化??美國小孩的基礎數理能力早已不足,您如何期待這些人進了美國名校之後從此就如同有高人灌頂,在四年之內程度突飛猛進,如果不能如此,那這些學校的學費在貴甚麼??回頭談美國儲蓄不足的問題,一個社會的資本累積對於一個社會能夠持續進步與發展是非常重要的,要維持美國這樣的高物價與高生活水準的社會,美國人勢必要有很多的儲蓄或是借貸,因此這二十多年以來美國人選擇了後者,跟全世界借錢來維持美國的高物價與高生活水準,只是這樣的根基必須建立在美國的商品跟勞務始終都有非常大的市場,今天連美國自身的企業都不太願意投資美國,覺得美國工人或是工作者的價格太高太貴,根本沒有這個價值,試問這不是跟美國很多人宣稱的,美國的人才濟濟因此競爭激烈,這樣的說法是大相逕庭的?美國真的如同很多美國人以為的那樣嗎?這是美國人必須自己想清楚的地方.

  美國稅制不公與美國很多經濟議題做法上的相互矛盾,其實都是美國過往二十多年近三十年的錯誤發展所致,替有錢人大量減稅,讓美國自身的中產階級變成貧窮階級,因為金融市場的過度波動,讓美國人無法透過投資與儲蓄累積退休所需,其實都是美國的大問題.美國的弱肉強食,那真的是遠比其他國家更為驚人,美國總很自豪自身的民主制度,但全世界的人都覺得美國的民主已經失靈,既無法解決自身的財富與資源分配的議題,也無法讓所有的美國人有比較好的生活與醫療環境,更有甚者,很多美國人都抱怨為什麼花了這麼多錢去念大學跟研究所,結果只是使得自身人生更為悲慘,因為那些學貸跟負債,隨著畢業之後找不好能夠償還這些債務的好工作,而一一浮現,為什麼本來投資教育應該是件好事情,但是對於今天的美國人來說卻是一場惡夢?除了美國人自身的儲蓄不足之外,另外就是美國人的觀念是不對的,念大學的資金本來就該跟買房子一樣是要有自備款的,會變成這麼沉重,自然是過往的儲蓄不足,還有就是學費貴又沒有政府幫忙,美國父母幫小孩的教育儲蓄不足固然是問題,但是美國高等教育學費過於驚人也是美國高等教育過度商業化的一大缺失!因此美國人就陷入惡性循環的泥淖之中,美國的稅制不公讓美國的公立大學無法提供很好的教育品質,美國的稅制不公讓很多美國人必須花很多錢自己去做很多事情而無法依賴政府的補貼,美國人的儲蓄不足讓美國很多的議題浮現,房價可能隔幾年就過高,學貸可能一直往上累積而降不下來,美國人從大學畢業之後,可能因為積欠龐大學貸而無法有很好的婚姻家庭與相關就業,這些都是美國儲蓄不足與美國社會將高等教育過度商業化的大弊端之一;這樣的問題還會繼續擴展到美國的醫療與相關其他產業上面,過度的商業化意味著昂貴與品質不見得如同所付的價格般是很好的,但這樣高的成本其實背後需要更多的儲蓄支持,而那樣的支持目前是來自於全世界借錢給美國人,那樣的情境自然是不可能長久下去,美國人必須正視自身儲蓄不足的議題,這已經是不可避免的事實.大家會談美國資源分配與所得不均的議題,主要正是因為很多美國的州立大學能否開得出很多很棒的課程與能否小班制教學,都有賴美國各州政府的幫忙,而各州政府能否有錢都有賴於稅收,如果美國無法在稅制上面的議題多幫忙,這代表著美國小孩要去念州立大學所需要準備的學費與生活費就可能增加,因為各州政府能夠補助的部分就相對少很多,這還是跟稅制是有關係的.

  中國大陸的人總愛說美國已經實質破產,其實應該說美國人的諸多舊有觀念早就過時,美國早已不是世界上的觀念領先者,慢慢地,如果美國人不肯從根本去檢討自身的弊端,美國將跟日本一樣是全世界的反面教材,只要照著美國發展的軌跡去修正自己,其他國家的經濟就會變得更棒更好,而美國在未來的數十年,將跟日本一樣是大家的參考,而那樣的參考說穿了,就是不要跟美國目前與未來一樣去改進自己就對,試問這樣的美國是美國人自己想要的嗎?


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Dear American people:

  Everyone in the USA with clear mind knows the States should not pile up its national debt anymore. Except those New Keynesian school scholars who are obssessed by the Voodoo economic theory of Keynes. Lately, people all around the world knows there is a midterm election in the US. To be honest, people do not care that much. I think American people should be fully awared of those empty checks written by those politicians. Too many empty checks have been given and nothing happens.We do see those yahts owners are those ones with empty checks.

  To invest in the US is the first priority the US enterprises should do. To invest in people and real things in the USA is the most important thing to let American people have decent full-time jobs. It may not be that good if we do not see those things happen. Every American people with sober mind knows the fact. But they are so afraid to let it be shown. To let US corporation investing more in the USA is the only way to have more full-time jobs. Government should not pile up its debt anymore. The wealthy US families should spend more to save the US economy. The poor American families should pay down their own debts and treat it as their first priority. It is the only way to revive the US economy into a long-term stable situation. To save and to invest are both ways for American people. The former one is for the poor American family and the latter one is for US corporations and wealthy American families.

  Personally, I suggest US citizens should not vote for those congressmen or congresswomen who always write too many empty checks and do nothing but empty talks. I suggest American people should not vote for those Republican congressmen who are supported by the Wall Street or specified interest groups. So is to the Democratic congressmen/women. It is bad for the future of USA.

  I have to confess that I still think Mr. Obama is a great president. He may be a great president who will be remebered after 50 years from now. But the healthcare and many issues do have some disputes. In Taiwan, we do have a good healthcare system . But we also have many small clinic offices and small or mid-sized hospitals go bankrupt in twenty years. The costs of treatment just can't be offset by the money collected from patients. American people may worry about their uprising heathcare costs. Bit it depends on all American people to find a way to let the healthcare cost go down. Everyone does deserve a better healthcare. But you should not let doctors and nurses go bankrupt to subsidize the cost of patients' treatment. It is wrong and not a good one with economic sense. Bad thing is not that bad as it shows in the first place. So is the good news. I believe the big defeat of Mr. Obama may not be that bad for all American people. So it goes to the big triumph of Republicans. It may not be that good to Republicans if they can not help all American people have full time jobs in the following two years. If the dream Republicans promise does not material, we may see another Democratic US president in 2016. The burden is on the shoulders of Mr. Obama and charged Republicans. American people will have to make choices in following years again and again.


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Dear American people:

   This time is no different. I have to confess I love to invest in bond funds, just like Mr. Buffett loves to hold stocks. It is a personal bias. Yes. it is. Just like a lot of people hold their bias and live on the world. Me too, either. Life goes on, no matter what kind of bias they have. We just have to live with that.

  I also agree with Mr. Greespan that the end of QE3 will not be without cost. And the cost may bring some unpleasant consequences. But it already did. Like a couple of months we saw before, the volatile financial market brings fear and tear. In the end, it is just a false alarm. Now we are in the boat sailing in the dire strait. But the direction is clear that every American people who can work and wants to have a job should be in title to have a full time job. It is a goal you should fight for. It is the destination that the boat is sailing to. No matter how hard the tide American people face. Life goes on. We are looking forward to seeing the ship of US pass the dire strait and sail to a real sunshine. Dear American people, it is your life. You have no right to give up. It may have some turmoil in front of you just like Mr. Greepsan says. It is a process with tear and fear. But there will be a sunshine after the turmoil goes away. It will always be that way if you believe.

  People like me still have troublesome in mind that the Ship of USA may sink or be abandoned by American own people. I am lack of faith that American people should have. I am lack of confidence if American people do not want to change. American people should be like a rock this time as those QEs have bring tons of money to the ultra-rich of American families and US big corporations. We see those benefits have been created during those QE years and go largely to those people and corporations. It is time to ask them to do something. It is time to ask them pay back. The US is not an abstract concept only but a real thing. Every American citizen is in title to serve their own country, including to spend more to let other American people have a decent job.

  All those things bring me to believe where we stand is not a balloon but a real ground. It may have several turmoils but the ground is solid and American people may finally realize all those bad news may not be that bad. All those good news may not be that good as it shows in the first place. American people stop buying houses and long-term goods may just show the real issue that Americans do not have enough full time jobs and savings to afford so many extra transactions. American people keep their heads sober is not a bad news as it looks at the first sight. Stop over-consuming is a first step to have more savings. To save more can help banks have more money in their hands and it will keep the interest rate down. In the end, the small or medium sized US corporations(SME) can borrow money at a lower rate. It is not a vicious circle but a good cycle. I encourage all American people to save more and let the rate down. Then we will be no longer to depend on the Fed's QE anymore. All the good news may not be that good as you see, so is all the bad news.

  May God bless all of you and the USA. 


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Dear American people:

  Now we see a big failure of IBM, the once great corporation which it just kills itself little by little. How come? Yes, the hareware manufacture may be so hard to live in the USA. How about the foundry? How about the new R&D on the facility provider to the next generation wafer foundry? We see the IBM pays a lot to let the Global foundry to have its intelectual properties. We see the IBM is losing its best IPs- the talent people all around the world. We see the most talented people in the IBM choose to work for another corporations. Maybe that is not a bad idea for those people, but it does harm to the future of IBM. All those things do happen every day in the IBM. Could the IBM prevent itself from falling? How to deal with it?

  The failure atmosphere is inside the Blue Giant. The failure thought is rooted in the heart of all IBM employees who are afraid of losing their jobs. The wrong path IBM chooses before let itself live in a bitter taste. IBM spends too much money in the lab without promising products and doesn't listen carefully to what business wants. It spends too much money on the labs and doesn't try hard to protect those IPs now. It should spin itself into several parts just like what HP does these days. It should refocus on its R&D on three most important things (1)the database system : the relational or the parallel database ;(2)the foundry or to be the next generation wafer building facilities provider; (3) the softwares integration IBM boughts before around ths world for the business intelligence. IBM should refocus itself on those things such as the data analysis ability of Big data, the latest data warehouse or facilities for those big corporations to process their data, important tools to help corporations know their customers or the world better and to use the next generation technology well in order to help people communicate in a cheaper way. IBM should treasure what it has and doesn't think what it has is a liability. People all around the world still use old technology to deal with problems each day because those tools are reliable. People still use structure-type computing language to solve the problem many corporations face every day without considering to use the OOP-type computing language. It shows what it counts. The reliable tools is much better than the latest new technology. IBM should know those ideas better than others and come out with better business strategies to show the uniqueness of IBM. IBM should not look down to itself becuase it doesn't invent the Java language or something else. 

  Maybe,the CEO of IBM should know those better and come out with better strategies and good implementation. To revive the IBM takes time just like those things to make the USA back from the hell to the heaven. The IBM is the story that ordinary American people face right now. The failure of IBM shows the losing of self-esteem of American people. IBM should refocus its strength and leave the rest behind. IBM should always remember that the most valuable IPs now in the IBM are the experienced IBM employees. Stop laying off them. Try to bring good strategies for IBM employees to grow. That is the first priority IBM should do. 

  God helps those who help themselves.


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