經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

Dear American people:

  It seems to be a long road when you are on your own. Sorry to borrow the lyrics. The light seems to be brighter when you are out of tune already. Now the sunuy day is comming. All you have to do is to embrace and to cherish. Don't mess it up again when everything turns better.

  Lately, people all around the world discuss the appreciation of USD. It is a decison with both better and worse outcomes. On the bright side, we all know that as the USD appreciates even higher, it brings the fund back to the States. And the first benefit goes to the homeowner, people will expect the long term rate goes lower when the funding pool is full. It will bring the consumption power to Americans which may bring export increase of other countries. People may see the appreciation of USD as a win-win situation for somwhow. On the other hand, it is not without cost. The cost is more higher burden of US Treasuries. The more the US Dollar appreciates, the more burnden the US Treasuries face. Of course, people may have some different opinions as the fund flows back to the USA, it may bring the funding cost of US industries to be even lower rather higher. A higher appreciation of USD just means that American people can not get any benefit from other countries' government bonds. The yield of other countries' bonds will be lower in order to attract people to buy when the US dollar appreciates more than people know. Or the yield of other countries' bonds just get even higher when people choose to leave those behind.

  It is a better or a worse age which depends on how we look at the appreciation of USD. In the end, there should be a balance between the USD and other issues. Dear American fellows, it is the issue you have to find out. How to bring back decent full-time jobs to ordinary American people is the big issue we face lately. It is not deniable that the US gets bigger improvement compared to other nations in Europe and Asia. The USA job market shows its resilience to the hard time and the not-so-much-imporved payroll increase. American people have more opportunities than other nations' people on the job issue. Many people with higher education all around the world can not even have a decent part-time job than American people do. It is a serious problem we have to face.

  Dear American fellows, we still count on the improvement of US job markets to absorb the world productions. We still count on American to develop its mid-cap or small-cap emerging corporations. We still rely on the innovation of USA. Dear American people, could you help the world to move on wihout looking back? Could you help people all around the world to see a new way of how to convert the part-time job workers to the full-time job workers? It is a big issue the world needs to know.

Dear American people:

  You are on the turning point or the crossroad. Turn left and become even extreme, turn right and become even conservative. Or stay in the neutral and keep it that way is your own choice. Every American citizen should realize that the USA is not just an empty concept but a real thing. People in the USA should fully aware that people all around the world are in the most strange year after the 2008 financial crisis. Which way to go is on every US citizen's hands. And it largely impacts other people's life.

  You can choose to turn back and stop moving on. Or you could choose to face the music and do not let it stop. We all know the debt-to-income ratio of every American household is near the top of used to be. We all know that payroll increase is not enough in the USA. We all know that American people can not save more and keep consuming. We all know that it is a tough choice people have to face. We all know that it is just as hard as used to be and American people have to choose to move on. Meet it half way is not a good idea. To face and to solve the deep issue is what you have to be. Saving and consuming should be reconciled ? Or just try hard to increase the payroll. To keep the USA move on depends largely on how much American people can save. It is always to be that way. No one can deny.

  Move on, my dear American fellows. No turn back. Move on, American citizens. Don't give up. America is just in the middle stage of reconstruction which is even harder than everybody knows. But it is a road to the glory. Fight for your own destiny. Fight for your own life is a have-to-be-that-way. Dear American fellows. This time is no different. Please remember, God help those who help themselves.

  Do your best and leave the rest to God. May God bless all of you.

Dear American people:

  In finance, we know there is an old saying about the effect of IPO, the short-term overpricing and long-term underperformance on the stock price. Alibaba is no exception. But the problem is not due to those old sayings about the initial public offering of used-to-be American-type companies but the deep-rooted issues of Alibaba.

  Alibaba is a monster which can do not only about the e-commerce transactions and daily in-time delivery but the money flow behind. Alibaba replaces the role of banking and the role of financial management of other financial institutions which may create some black holes for the great China. Those black holes may drag many business units in their dangerous spirals which may bring more than we know unemployment in China. The most important issue is that Alibaba seems to have too much pricing power which may destroy the lately emerging higher quality Chinese product producers. In the end, Alibaba may destroy the future of China, including higher quality and higher paid jobs, higher quality products, and a dream of higher living standard for Chinese people who may want to have a payroll raised each year. Alibaba has rewritten many rules and bring the western-type unemploement and lower product quality with cheaper price issues into China. It will destroy many mid cap banks and financial institutions and middle-sized but with higher quality producers. Those with higher quality producers, no matter their products are real goods or services, will be totally destroyed by Alibaba. In the end, the vicious circle happens, it will hurt Alibaba eventually because it may has less and less consumers with tons of oney in their pocket. The reason is simple. Those ones with higher payroll jobs are replaced by the vendors on the Alibaba sites. Those ones with higher quality can not survive in the dominant world of lower price concept. Those heterogeneous markets will become old fashioned. There may not have other heterogeneous markets anymore. Pricing becomes everthing, the quality seems not to be that important anymore. Those heterogeneous factors on specific products for comsumers become obsolescent. All will be destroyed by Alibaba's lower price policy. And people with tons of money in their pockets will eventually find they get less and less from their jobs each day hereafter. So we may see the trend of vicious circle happens, especially when Alibaba gets even stronger in the great China.

  The remedy for the trend breaking of Alibaba is more regulations and more price discrimination rules for others to survive. Those one with heterogeneous services or product qualities may survive under the carefully ruled and regulated e-commerce environment. It needs the China authority to carefully regulate Alibaba and really understand the deep economic meanings behind the just one time emerging exciting story of Alibaba. The money flow reguation seems to be the first priority for Alibaba. Alibaba should not replace the role of daily banking services provided by ordinary business unit in the financial institution. It seems to be wrong to let Alibaba have so many power to make or rewrite the rule for the future of great China.

Dear American people:

  I know you are excited lately and many American people have a good life as the 2008 crisis was far far away. But I have to remind you that the reconstruction road is just in the middle. American people need to save more to buy back a lot of US Treasuries from the Fed. American people need to save more to help the US government pay down those piling debt which was used to save the 2008 crisis. Those brudens need to be relieved by the savings of ordinary American people.

  Dear American fellows, this time is no different. You need to educate yourself and your neighbors that the saving is the only remedy to against the large piled-up US debt. The saving can save your offsprings from the burden. The savings can help yourselves get away from the vicious circle of endless debt payment. Dear American people, I just need to draw your attention on the issue of savings. American people save too little. American people need to save more to help the society back on its glory old path.

  今天在伊拉克發生的事情,未來在美國退出阿富汗之後,就會再度出現;美國將發現過往花了好幾兆美元的軍費,希望改變這兩個國家的心願都落空了,而且中東地區的美國人,將是人人自危,這就是美國必須付出的代價!

  過度英雄主義的處理原則,不但讓美國債台高築,而且還繼續傷害美國人當中,在未來我們將見到更多美國人受到傷害,只因為當初做的錯誤決定,如今全球都得替這些事情付出代價,而代價就是全球的金融市場,畢竟金錢不會從天上掉下來,美國的債務終究會跟英國在十九世紀初中期一般,要不就是英鎊持續貶值,要不就是用其他的方式讓這些債務減輕,試問那結果會是甚麼?

  全世界有超過六十億的人口,美國境內最多三億多人,一個三億多人的國家產值再大也不可能能夠償還超過17兆美元的債務,試問無法償債的最後結果是甚麼?全世界的人終究要替這個情況做分擔,那分擔的結果又是甚麼?

Dear American people:

 There is a suggestion that US Fed should raise the Fed fund rate sooner than later, then we may expect the US dollar appreciate quite a lot. The reason is due to the disappearance of short term arbirtrage or rent seeking activities. It may cause the drop of carry trade and short term wasteful consumption borrowing of US people. But a serious question arises to the US society which may lose its ability to borrow and consume. We all know that US domestic economy depends heavily on the consumption of durable goods such as car sales or house sales. This kind of borrowing should be the long term borrowing, but it is not lately when people use the short term loan to pay for it. If the borrower do not qualify to be a legitimate long term borrower, then the only way they can borrow is through the short term borrowing channel. It is the reason why the Fed Fund rate raising may casue a big trouble to those not-in-such-a-good-shaped ordinary American people. We all know that US domestic economy does depend on US people borrowing a lot of money for the higher education such as master degree or professional certification. We all know that those activities are largely counted on  the short term borrowing or refinancing of original debts lately. So if the US economy is still lousy and the US people still live on their part time job payrolls rather than a legitimate full time job. We should not expect the short term Fed fund rate to be raised too soon. It may hurt a lot of Americans.

  On the other hand, we also need to notice the dark side where the short term Fed rate is not riased as soon as possible. The signal effect may show the opposite. People may lose their confidence on the economy just as Japan when the rate can not be raised as soon as possible. And too loose Fed fund rate may induce information assymetric effect which make people borrow more and pay less. A little strigent short term rate may let people fully aware that they should do more to improve their own lives. Ordinary American people should not just rely on the government subsidy. It is not a proper way to live on this life like forever. But those things are based on the job market improvement and better US domestic economy. If American people can not find a decent job, how could we expect they pay down their debts and save more? If American people can not have a peaceful mind, how could they concentrate on their debt situation improving rather than just in a situation of faith losing? There is a balance that the US Fed authority should consider. It is the first and the foremost priority that the US Fed should figure out seriously these days.

  It should be mentioned again that the relation between the long term rate of Treasuries (the yield) and the short-term Fed fund rate should be considered separately when the economy is lousy but should be considered coherently when the thing gets better. The accumulation effect of short term rate should have its impact on the long term rate.

Dear American people:

  To be honest, it is a tough issue. To be honest, I do not think anyone in the world could have an answer make everyone happy. Let's see some possible consequences.

  First of all, everyone woories about the short term rate raised could have impact on the long ter rate. Here the long term rate means the yield rate of 10 years treasures. Many people have mortgage to pay. And their mortgage rates depends largely on the yield of 10 years Treasuries instead of Fed short term rate. But we often see the long term event is an accumulation process of short term things. So people may worry about the short term rate has big impact on the long term.

  Second, we have to figure out how many American people live on the events of short term rate. The short term rate may have another big impact of other borrowings, such as credit card, debit card or other short term loans. We have to figure out of the effect when those borrowings become expensive. We have to understand the household borrowings and household monetary cycle when they face the raising of Fed's short term rate. If there is a big impact, then we may understand the fact that a lot of American people live in  a life largely depends on the short term borrowing. And the fact shows how vulnerable of ordinary American people and the Fed should not raise short term rate now but tries hard to improve the life quality of ordinary American people, especially their financial situations.

  Third, we may face another issue is the substitution effect of world curreucies. If the Fed riases the short term rate, the borrowing cost of US dollar will be increased. The carry trade may stop. Of course, we see the US dollar become stronger lately. It already have the effect on the carry trade of US dollar borrowing. If the US dollar becomes weaker again. Then the short term rate rising may have its impact on the value of US dollar when people borrow the US dollar for the trading events. Personally, I believe the weaker US dollar in the best interest of American people because the Us has pile uo too much debt. But the issue depends on the export relation with the weaker US dollar. If the weaker US dollar can improve the export of American-made products to the world, then the weaker US dollar is good to ordinary American people. If it is not, people arould the world will want to have a stronger US dollar. But I still disagree with that opinion becasue the USA has too much debt. 17 trillion debt is not an easy task. Every president of the United States will have to face this big challenge in their governing lifes. So if the US dollar follows a weaker trend, then the cost of carry trade will largely depends on the rising of Fed fund rate.

  American people may finally realize that the short term Fed fund rate rising may not have big impact on ordinary American people if a larger portion of American people have no short term debts. But if Ameican people still live on the recycling of short term debt financing, then the Fed fund rate may not to raise the Fedn fund rate too soon until a lot of American people fix their financial balance sheets. Of course, we need to educate American people how to live on their own savings rather than short term borrowing anymore. The goal Fed should keep in mind is to let American  people have much less debts and more savings. If the situaiton gets better, then the short term Fed fund rate rising has little impact on the long term yield of 10 years Treasuries. It is another story of how to grow the US.

   不可否認的,美國在今年(2014年)五月初公布的失業率降到6.3%確實是一個好消息,因為上個月的就業人數是288,000人,這是美國連續兩個月的就業人數超過二十萬人,如果這個趨勢持續下去,美國今年有超過兩百萬人就業絕對不是問題,甚至我們可以期待是兩百五十萬人就業,但是這個數據的背後有一些其他的數據是很驚人的,首先是美國的勞動參與率繼續降低,而美國有八十萬人退出失業率的計算當中,這個數據是很可怕的,因為這八十萬人還是要吃要喝,但是卻從找工作的行列中消失了,另外一個數據是美國的非全職就業人口(part-time job workers)已經突破八百二十萬人,這說明了美國的就業人口中有相當比例是領時薪制的就業,這些人是沒有足夠的退休金制度與勞健保保障,因此這些人之後的生活,相當程度上可能因為美國經濟突然遇到大變動,而陷入馬上失去工作的窘境,這些都是美國經濟的隱憂;美國不少碩士畢業生的工作難尋,這在美國並非不常見,而這些人的薪資增加幅度多少,其實並沒有更深入的研究資料顯示,這裡面透露出很多很多美國目前就業資訊的不透明,美國很多碩士畢業生從大學到念碩士都需要助學貸款,平均來說從大學畢業大約需要借入五萬五美元的貸款,而從大學到碩士畢業需要借入九萬五千美元的助學貸款,大約已經是新臺幣三百多萬,而且是比較普通的學校,如果是名校,碩士從就讀到畢業大約需要六到七萬美元的學費,因此這些人要花多少時間才能賺回這些貸款,一直以來都是大家爭論的焦點,據聞連美國的Obama總統夫婦,到入主白宮之前,都還需要繼續還當初的學貸,從此處就不難見到美國高等教育的學費驚人,以及美國生活水準的高漲,這些都是美國人日常生活的負擔!

  美國還有幾項經濟事實是很值得大家注意的,首先是美國人消費美國牛肉的數量逐年在下降,而美國牛產奶量因為這幾年氣候異常外加外銷市場暢旺,美國小孩消耗美國牛奶的數量也是逐年在下降,這裡面都透露出美國人普遍貧窮化的現象並未降低,因此美國只公佈平均薪資水準上漲的數據,相當程度上面只透露出美國貧富差距越來越大,因為只要少量的工作薪資一直往上調升,就能夠拉高平均薪資的數據,但是如果美國有關於薪資中位數數據的公佈,相信美國的中位數薪資水準應該是下降或是沒有甚麼成長的,因為美國人連自身農產品肉類與乳製品的消耗量都在下跌,而且數據也顯示這些美國產品的價格是年年上漲至少三到五個百分點的,但是美國的核心PCE指數卻只上漲了1.6%左右,還不到目標值設定百分之二的門檻,原因就出在這些美國產品不少已經是專門外銷而非美國人在消費,當然這與美元過往一段時間處於貶值的情況是有關的,只是這裡面也透露出美國還是可能面臨通貨緊縮的風險,以及美國或許已經步入日本的後塵,越來越多人的就業是派遣工作與臨時性的雇員工作,當然好消息是美國人的儲蓄率好不容易在有些州總算是破蛋,美國人總算可以有辦法儲蓄,只是這同時也是美國經濟成長的一大隱憂,因為美國儲蓄率低對於內需跟自身產業的資本累積所造成影響就是-很多工作都只會用臨時性的約聘與派遣工作來因應,因為美國大眾都很窮,所以沒辦法有比較多的全職工作出現.主因自然是美國人窮到使得美國老闆們賺不到錢,所以不敢多聘用全職的員工,從這些跡象可以合理推論出美國人的薪資水準可能不是上漲而是不太變動的,當然這些都需要更多實際數據的佐證,但是從很多美國人無法負擔美國自身的農產品,肉類到乳製品的這個資訊顯示,美國人處於貧窮化的可能性是很大的!另外還有一個數據是巴菲特爺爺旗下經營的公司,在今年第一季獲利其實是衰退而非成長的,這個老兄經營的多是現金流量高的企業,如果這些企業都是如此,也顯示了美國企業的營運成本確實在增加,但是獲利能力卻沒有因為美國總體就業人數增加而上升,這裡面透露出非常多美國經濟仍然處於疲態的事實,這是很值得大家注意的地方!

Dear American people:

  You face a situation we have seen it before. The thing happens in Japan for several years. That is the age of lower payroll. To be honest, I am not surprised about even lower unemployent rate happens lately in the USA. But I do concern about the phenomenon of part-time job. People may get employed, but the job is without a pension or a good healthcare insurance. It is what people worry about. It is the thing we have so much attention. It makes people wonder how and what to do to make the unemployment issue on the right track - A way to make people have a full time job with a great pension and a good healthcare insurance. It is so hard for this time. People do expect the unemployment rate will be below six percent this year. People do expect the employment number in the USA might be more than 2.2 million this year. But those jobs are with lower payrolls and those jobs may be considered as lousy jobs. We still worry about all those things. People do feel sorry about this kind of thing. There are so many reasons for the lower payroll thing but with one rason that counts the most. 

  The most important one is that ordinary people do not save enough to let each other can share with those wealth and keep money flow between each other in the USA. The lower saving rate is the most and the greatest issue American people have to realize. It is also the reason we do worry about the maybe too much higher US stock market stands. A maeket without enough savings can not get even higher. The lower wealth accumulation brings the situation of the age of personnel dispatch even worse. It is the thing you should try hard to avoid. Japan has experienced it before and the issue of lower payroll still make Japanese suffer. The long time ago the credit line booms and then goes busted make Japanese lose their faith. People do feel sorry for them. A lot of people know your leaders try hard as possible as they can to save American people from the situation of deep depression and deep deflation. It is the reason why to use QEs and any measures as soon as possible. We do realize American people are out of wood from the deeply deflation. Unfortunately, American people still suffer from the lower saving rate. Do not use personal credit line too often or too much unless you buy a house. Or you just can not make yourself breakeven in your daily life. A lot pf people do hope all of American people can save more to help other American people have their life back. People do hope when the saving rate of USA rises above some threshold, then a full time job with a good healthcare insurance and a great pension will come along. People do urge American people to be patient. The time may takes longer than you think until ordinary American people have enough savings. Then you will find the job you want has come. And the reason behind is simple. Ordinary American people have savings to save themselves and others. Dear American people, I still urge you to be patient and just get the job you can reach as soon as possible. And try to save as much as you can. More capital accumulation does America good rather than bad. Please go on and on without second thought. May God bless you.

Dear American people:

  I know you are suffering about the unemployment for a long time. For me, it is also a pain in the ass problem. I have to encourage you to save more even though you have a temporary part-time job. I have to encourage you to face the issue with a positive mind and try hard to grab any chance you could reach as soon as possible. No matter what a lousy jub you can find, just take the job and protect yourself carefully. It is a dynamic age. Capitalism is what we have to face. Those ones with greater capital just want to profit more. The only thing I can say is I still stand on your side. I believe people all around the world still fight the depression issue all together even though it is a pretty hard problem we have to face.

  Many people think if any people around the world tries to against the idea of capitalism, it just brings bad things to the ordinary people. It won't harm any wealthy people at all. It anyone tries hard to against the America, it just hurt the ordinary American people. The unemployment issue is so hard to solve lately becasue you have a sophisticated pension system which brings a lot of burden to corporations. In finance, there is a calculation saying if the corporate has a lot of pension assets in hand, the WACC of its equity capital will be reduced. It helps the corporate to have more profitable investment as its WACC decreases. I really wonder if the American corporations can be that smart to have more pension assets on hand. I also wonder if American corporates just don't want to take the burden of American workers' retirement, so they just don't want to hire more American people. Even the cash-rich company like Apple, it repurchase its stocks rather than providing more jobs to American people. It really makes peple furious. But that is the reality. It is the thing we see lately and can do nothing about it. I really feel sorry to Mr. Obama when I see a kid with her father's resume hands it over to Mrs. Obama. It is a sad story to people. It just reminds us there are still a lot of people unemployed in the USA. People do feel sad about the unemployment issue. We have to face the reality if the story just goes on and on. We do see the limitation of US-QEs. We do see the limitation of other fiscal policy American authority brings in the USA. But Mr. Obama still shoud encourage corporations invest in the USA and bring jobs back to the States. It will never be an easy issue. But we just have to go on and on no matter how hard it is. No matter how hard a road is in front of us.

  Dear American people, yo just have to go on and on no matter how hard you may face. You just have to march on no matter how long the road it is. No turning back! Don't look down to yourself. No matter how hard it is, just go on and on.

Dear American people:

  A lot of people lately talk about the Quantative Easing of USA. They think the goal it reaches is only pushing the asset prices of US to a higher ground. It doesn't resolve the unemployment issue. It helps less on the corporate rebirth or reorganization. To be honest, I don't have the same feeling. People talk about the lately US stock market booming and think it is just a process of stock repurchase of US corporations. It is not the real growth we will find in the USA. Unfortunately, they use their own country as the benchmark for the issue. It is a totally wrong perception. The growth of USA is based on its service industries. There are a lot of emerging economies can be used as the production bases to satisfy American people's need. A lot of productions will never go back to the USA anymore. It is the thing people have to realize. In an services-oriented society, people have to know what is the important for the society. The society has to fill the need of desire deep inside people's mind. That is the mental stuff which is based on arts, science, friction and entertainment. American movie is one of them. American novels is one of them. The style of American living is one of them. The American education is one of them. The Major League is one of them. The NBA is one of them. All those things bring higher profits to American people. All those things have some common ground which is those things use more intellectual properties and less materials to produce. Some great thoughts to manage a corporate doesn't need many commodities input. Information technology progress in the USA already incorporates a lot of foreign products with the inside of the design from American people and the software architecture by American people. Those kind of things make a big change to the world and the American society.

  People think lately the US stock market booming is based only on the repurchase of stock of US corporation. They seems to forget to ask some deep quesitons about how those corporations have those money. People think those money are coming from the cheap bonds market. Corporates issue bonds with lower rate and use those cheap credits to repurchase their stocks from the market. In finance, it is called the bondholder expropriation hypothesis. All those things seems to be right in the first glance, but it doesn't to be that way. First, Apple also repurchases a lot of their own stocks. The reason is the Apple's larger shareholder asks Apple to do so. In finance, we know there is a free cash flow hypothesis. It says if the corporate has tons of money on hands and  nowhere to go, then it should use the money as dividends paying to shareholders. Or it is a waste to shareholders. Shareholders do not like the corporate managers waste their money. We also know the tax rate of dividends paying in the USA is much higher than the tax burden of stock repurchase. So it happens that way. That is the reason why American corporations buyback their shares rather than paying the money as dividends. Those people seems not to know the corporate finance well. They may need to buy a corporate finance textbook written by Brealey or Stephen Ross and read it thoroughly. Then they will understand those actions we see lately from the US stock market is totally reasonable. Those corporations are with tons of money on hands and have no way to invest. They do not need to invest in the USA but to outsource their productions oversea to create a good supply chain and a good cycle of profit creation. Then they can have a big fortune. American people only need to sell those products in the USA and teach American people how to use those products well in a coherent way, then they can create a lot of GDP domestically. Those people who think America corporations did nothing but only repurchase their shares have some traditional merchandise manufacturing thought in their minds, but they seems to neglect about the process of GDP creation. They may be from the underdeveloped world so that they just do not comprehend all those things. The USA doesn't have that process of GDP creation anymore.

  The US-style QEs do have the goal to ease the pain of financial crisis of 2007-2008 happened in the USA. But it is not the ultimate solution for American people to resolve its economic issues. The USA needs a new social arcitecture on the wealth creation process inside America. The USA needs to know how to reinnovate its society with better technology applications and technologies for their life-style improvement, including education, entertainment, social networking and other important daily life related stuffs. The US-QEs are just the tool to ease the pain of transformation. It is not the ultimate goal. Borrow the word from the US Treasury head Jack Lew, the US-QE is only a temporary means to help the USA back on track. The original idea of US-QE created by Mr. Bernanke is not to create a lot of fortune for the wealthy people but to use it to ease the pain of market-malfunction during the crisis and try hard to make the market back on track for all American people. The US-QE is a means but not the goal. It is a means to help the USA to have a well-functioning financial market, including property market and other malfunction markets during the crisis of 2008. Now we see those markets back on track, so it is time to let the US-QE go with no reason.

Dear American people:

  All those struggles may be a salvation to people in Taiwan. Poeple think Red China is a great salvation that God gives to Taiwanese. God wants to teach us a lot of things that we have never experienced. God wants us to know well about what the great evil thing can happen when people refuse to live in starvation.  They use every not-so-fair competition means on others. It is the situation happened beteween Red China and Taiwan. We do suffer from those kind of things for so long. We have to endure it for even a longer time than others can imagine. It is a salvation God gives to people in Taiwan. Gods wants us to face those things from Red China. We just have to know it better.

  A manupulated financial statement may do no harm. But a bunch of corporations with manipulated books reveals that it is a country with bad reputation. We all know in the follwing days or years, Red China will face the shortage of clean drinkable water and food. People will face starvation again and again until they figure out new ways to deal with those issues. Red China want to develops its industries of high technologies, but those companies all need a lot of water for the cleaning or washing during the production process. It is a dilemma that Red China has to face. They have to face those issues, how to balance itself between food production and employment issue. Red China has to face how to well allocate its resources to develop its own nation. It is a bif challenge and China may get worse of those choices do not go well. Red China may face the deterioration of its living environment and the starvation. Poeple outside mainland China still think the first priority for Red China is clean water and food. They should out all their strength on those issues first.

  So, it is really a salvation if Red China think through all those problems. Every one knows well how hard working Chinese people can be. Every one knows how Chinese people can endure any great dangers to have food on the table. But Red China has to adopt world rules on its nation. Let the world corporations have equal chance to grow in Red China. It is the thing they have to realize.

Dear American people:

  For me, it is the first time I have not written the same issue in the traditinal Chinese on the blog talking about the new issue I concern about the mainland China in the first place, the Red China we name it.

  First of all, we treat Red China as a threat and also as a salvation. Red China has a lot of manufacture companies who use the lower-than-others-pricing strategy to take a larger share of market, especially in Red China and the world for some items. We all know that Red China has more than 1.2 billion people living in the ghost-like place. I do respect those people in China who can endure such a dangerous living environment and try to survive on their own. China has seriuos air pollution and wasteful mass production which produce lower quality and lower priced productions. Now we see they try hard to improve themselves with new technology and new way of production, but we all know those technologies and manpowers are largerly getting from Taiwan. They steal our human resources trained and educated in Taiwan. Our government pays a big fortune for those manpowers when those people pay so little to have a great public university education and pay so little to have great healthcare in Taiwan. All those costs are brudened by Taiwanese people in our tiny island. We take those burdens to train those manpowers in a sophosticated way. BUT we can not let them have a decent life in Taiwan. So we have to let them go to Red China. There are so many issues troubling us lately. The one is China becomes a big threat to the whole world because they do not need to take any burden to produce excellent products and all those costs are at other's expense. The land belongs to the state in Red China. The production costs are almost free because those money, RMB of course, are printed from the government for nothing. There are a lot of companies in their greatest competitive position with our Taiwanese corporations. Those Red China corporations are paying almost nothing to have those production resources. Even the technology those Red Chinese corporations get is free because they steal those things from the world and only sell those products in Red China to avoid the lawsuit. People all around the world will NEVER get court restriction approved to forbid those products selling in Red China. You will even be limited to talk about those technologies stealing events in Red China. The reason is simple. Those Red China corporations are supported and funded by local state Red Chinese governments which are the main shareholders. The product price just can be that CHEAP behind everybody's imagination.

  There is a joke that we often hear lately. Thare are so many Red China corporations losing a lot of money. But at the end of each accounting period, they get new funds by selling something not so valuable to somebody in Red China and their books turn black. We all know those companies are supported from the local state government who is the main funder. All of sudden in many cases, the near bankrupt corporation's balance sheet turns black from red. There are so many examples. Originally, they lost almost 1 billion. After the specific transaction they are invloved, they earn more than 3 billion in ONE DAY. So their public listed stocks go up and up to the outer space. It is nothing but a truth we saw those things happening in so many years. This non-fair competition drives our Taiwanese corporations out of Red China and the world. We do know Red China has the pressure of crowded population. We do know they have to survive on whatever cost they bring to each other. But this situation makes us wonder even if we have free trade agreement with Red China. Even we have tax deduction from the specific Free Trade agreement with Red China. They still can drive our Taiwanese corporations out of markets in Red China because we have to pay the production costs of land, hirings and other resources for production. But they pay almost nothing. We do know their financial statements can be manipulated in every means because they have local or even central government support who can turn their losing book into black without any reason.

  Second, there is also another big issue troubling people seriously these days, the RMB issue. We all know a lot of Red China corporations have unimaginable debt-to-equity ratios in their financial statement. We all know that the high-speed railroad system in China has sky-high debts on hand. But we are one hundred percent sure those corporations will not go bankrupt because the central or local governments can support them indefinitely and make them profitable somehow. For Red China corporations, their RMB seems to be free and without any costs to obtain. The Red China government restricts the credit creation on the housing sector, but, on the other hand, they support those near bankrupt corporations to have a profitable look in front of people. Those corporations are public listed but their books can be manipulated without any rules following. It makes people wonder the value of RMB. How come those people can get those RMB without any cost? What is the value behind of RMB? What is the credit creation process we had witnessed these days in Red China? We all know that the Treasury department of USA has to issue US Treasuries to let Fed print the greenback accordingly. It is the reason why the USA has more than 16 trillions national debt lately. Every penny US currency circulated in the world has to be backed by the US Treasuries. But it seems to be not that way in Red China. We really do not know how those credits created in Red China. In Taiwan, we use foreign reserve as our currency backup. People are wondering what the ground of those RMB is based. The central government of Red China seems to create those credit lines for some corporations without limit. They print the money to support their employment but let our corporations and our manpower to earn nothing if the RMB can depreciate as Red China governement wishes. They can print a lot of money or create a lot of credits as they want. The corporations in Red China get subsidy from the government. Even those investments are worth nothing, they can guarantee their people to have jobs. It is the thing we can't have. It is the goal they want but we feel sorry for. It makes people wonder the true value of RMB. After all, the RMB is not an international currrency. It can not be traded and exchanged freely in the international financial markets. The Red China has not open their international capital account to every citizen of Red China.  There are so many restrictions in Red China. They use their currency RMB as a way to seduce our manpower and technologies to help itself get greater improvement on pruduction and marketing. Those RMB may be worth nothing if Red China authority wants to let RMB depreciated as they wish. How come our naive Taiwanese people want to devote themselves so much to earn the worthless RMB? Because we treat Red China as the one like the USA? Because we are trained from the textbooks written by Americans and other well developed society which says that we should treasure free conpetition? But we do not understand those rules has been changed as those Red Chinese people wish and they DO take advantage of us because we follow those rules and they don't. It does work if Red China authority says so. It does not work if Red China authority changes its mind.

  Dear American people, I have to ask for your help. If you could choose your vendors in your supply chain and there are three companies from Taiwan, Red China and South Korea. Please choose the company from Taiwan even the company can not offer the best deal compared with those ones in Red China and South Korea. Corporations from Red China and South Korea all have their government supports, but our government believes in freely competition and gives no help to Taiwanese corporations. We, Taiwanese, have to pay a bigger prize to produce those things. So I do ask for your help. Please choose those companies from Taiwan to be your suppliers if you could. Taiwan is not an international member. We are not a member of United Nation. We are not a member of IMF. If we have financial crisis, we can't get support as South Korea had before. We have to live on our own. We have to live on under the threat of Red China and their one-China policy to the world. I believe myself as a Chinese, but not the one from the Red China. I am a citizen of Republic of China. Nobody can deny that the Republic of China still lives on the earth which has not be extincted by the Red China, the People's Republic of China you call it. It is a big difference that people in Taiwan, the Republic of China, treasure their own freedom and respect the world rules of business. But we just have higher production cost because we have to pay a bigger prize to own those technologies. We pay a lot to join the world competition. We have no support from world organizations if we have troubles. We are always on our own no matter what happens. It is the difference between Taiwan and the South Korea. It is a big difference between Red China and Taiwan. It is the price we pay a lot when you let the Red China to join the WTO in the title of under-developed area. We have to open our markets to Red China but they do not have to.

Dear American people:

  As your budget office suggests, the USA is out of wood. But it does not guarantee that it will leave the wood forever. From our experience in Taiwan, the national healthcare system will not work well unless you hurt some of your doctors and nurses a lot. It means that you have to cut their salaries or paychecks more than you know to have a lower cost of NHS. It also brings the consequences that you will not find enough legitimate doctors or nurses in the future. The Obamacare and healthcaid should be stopped or be trimmed down quite a lot to the basic service. A lot of healthcare service is redundant to American people and it just increases the life of elder people which brings great burdens to the society. When people are aged, they just have to rest in peace forever. We should not encourage people to prolong their lives and bring a lot of government deficits to the society. Unfortunately, it just happens to our society in Taiwan. I hope you would not repeat our mistakes.

  You had heard our latest legislative Yuan occupation event. The true reason deep inside is the generation discrepancy and the welfare discrepancy. It is just another consequence of our costly National Healthcare System and the government-employed pension plan because the goverment has so many debts on hands for those reasons. Our government is reluctant to create a good environment for the younger people to have a decent job. It brings a vicious circle. Our government uses out more than seventy percent revenues collected from people each year on no more than 0.7 to 0.8 million people who are employed or used to be employed by the government. We pay too much for our NHS system which is still full of debt. The NHS benefit also goes to those 0.7 million people largely. They pay too little and we pay too much. The government takes too much burden on this issue and has no money to create a great environment for younger people. It leas to the situation that the government can't afford to have some stimulus programs for younger people to get a better life. Our NHS system should trim itself down even more. People should not have such a good welfare because the younger generation has to take the burden no matter they are happy or not. It is the reason deep inside their hearts why they occupy the legislative Yuan lately. Because they are afraid that they just can not take it anymore. The real cause is not something about the invasion of Chinese people to Taiwan, but our too good to be true NHS system and the government-sponsored pension welfare for those only 0.7 to 0.8 million people. In Taiwan, we have 23 million people, but our government only takes good care of those 0.7 to 0.8 million people which uses out more than 70% revenue the government collects from citizens every year. It should not happen in the United States. Mr. Obama should reconsider the USA-NHS or reduce it a lot in the near future. Mr. Obama has to change his course. Or you will face the same consequence as we do.

Dear American people:

  You always make me wonder and always make people have some soul search.This time is no difference. There are several issues we have talked about the US economy. We all know a strength US dollar has its pros and cons. After several months adjustment, we do see some weakness of strong US dollar. And people do expect a depreciate US dollar can bring some momentum to US multinational corporations. It can bring higher translation profit back to their books. We all know a weaker US dollar may let those funds flow out of the US. It may bring up the interest rate level of US, but a weaker US dollar does help profit increase of those US multinational corporations. We all know these days, everyone tries so hard to tame down the mortgage rate in the USA. From this way, we hope it can raise the consumption of American people. A strong US dollar can have same effect for American people, but it does hurt the profit of those US mutinational corporations. It is a both-sided story. We want American people have more consumption power, and we also want American people can make more money. All those things lead American people to have more jobs in the US land. We hope those things can help American bosses to create more jobs in the USA.

  There is another both-sided story. We do know the power of US-QEs. It will lead a higher price-to-earning ratio of US corporations that we have not seen before. It is a chance we have to ask Mr. Bodie to rewrite his investment textbook to include a new chapter about the effect of US-QEs on the price-to-earning ratio. The repricing issue is important for American people because we do not see social structure changes and other non-financial issues have been discussed in the traditional investent textbook. There are no chapters talking about the wealth discrepacy and wealth focus situations in the USA lately. There are no chapters talking about the reasons why American people want to occupy the Wall-Street. There are the reasons why people are wondering if American people can accept and get along with higher price-to-earning ratio lately, even for a couple of years. It is a transition process. It is a process to rebuild the wealth of ordinary American people. It is a way to revive American economy if American people can have consensus about the normal situation of higher price-to-earning ratio of corporations trading in the US financial markets. It is important that I have to asked all American people for helping. If American people have some serious doubt about the situation of higher P/E ratio, the story can not go on. And the story writer can not write any new chapters. People can not live in the Kafka's sweet dream, not nightmare, anymore.

  A blossom stock market can bring American people hope and drive them to work harder for the transition of US society. American people have to transform its society with better service companies and a better social healthcare system. It is the thing Mr. Obama tries hard lately. People do need all American people to fully cooperate for a new USA. People do need Amercian people tolerate with higher P/E ratio of US corporation for a couple of years and help each other to GET their decent lifes BACK.

  (unfinished)

Dear American people:

  The goal of unemployment to below 6.5% may be a wrong concept or a wrong idea this time. American people should set a further criterion and let to be the goal of unemployment related to full-time jobs below a threshold. The experience from Japan is the latest new jobs created are mostly part-time jobs. Some of them are related to personnel dispatch ones. Those jobs are created from antoher companies and those employers go to larger corporations for a shoter term to finish the job with some goals. Those jobs are without health-insurance and pension consideration. People are worried about the same thing happening in the USA when those heads who have temporary or part-time jobs in the USA are around 8.5 millions. It is a serous issue that Mr. Osborne had noticed and had been interviewed and talked about with Charlie Ross.

  American people have to change course to make sure the increase of full-time jobs does happen in the USA.

 Dear American people:

  This time is no different. We do expect largerly improvement of US economy but it may not bring enough full time jobs. Now the US has transformed itself into a more knowledge-based society. People have to realize that new jobs creation are largely depending on new technologies adoption by US citizens. The old technology replacement rate does have its impact on the US employment. We do expect the service industries in the US can have some leaping effects. We do expect those non-cyclical necessities industries can grow when the Obama administration proposes a larger fiscal stimulus program to replace the expansionary monetary ploicy now. We do expect the participant rate of US citizen can increase than before. We do expect the US can have at least 2 million people have their jobs this year. When the world gets worse, we do expect a lot of money flow back to the USA. When emerging markets have so many troubles we can not foresee, those trouble just make the US financial market a safe heaven. We have doubts about the European financial markets, especially the conflit between Ukraine and Russia may bring some trouble to Germany and other Eastern European nations. We do expect Western European countries may depend on Russia even more than we know before. Those things just trouble us. Those things just make a lot of countries with peace and lower inflation rate to be good places to park money. It may not include some countries with some structural problems deep inside which just can not grow that much as expected. Money flowing into those nations are just for the speculation.

  We do expect the unemployment rate of US may wander around 6.8% and may not go down as people expect in the near term. We do expect the unemployment rate of US will eventually fall as many things get better. We do expect the employment may be a little bit harder for US citizens in the first few months this year. But we still have faith because other nations are even worse than the US this time. So we still think the US financial market is the safe heaven. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia makes people wonder if we really can counquer humans weakness, including selfish and greed. We hope American people can have stronger faith to the world and help others to weather bad weathers and storms.

Dear American people:

  We see the consequences of those emerging economies crashing. Overinvesting and overproduction bring disasters to those countries. If they do not do that, they are afraid that their own people could not get a job. When they invest, they face their own pain of overinvest and overproduction. It makes them hard to decide which way to go.

  For those commodity rich countries, they have their own pains. When the commodity price goes down and those people in the commodity rich countries do not take the advantage of their higher currencies to save and invest, they just have to face higher personal debt and endless falling of their own currencies. We do see the free economy prevails. But the most important thing is we do see those people who can take advantage of the free economy well prevail but those ones who can't are still losers. It shows the merit of finance education. People should know hard about their own financial situation and try hard to make it right. Or they have to face the consequence. The personal savings is the most important. People should know how to evaluate their every choice about their daily life. If they should take higher education, if they should buy a house, and if they should try hard to undrstand how to cope with their personal debt, those kind of things all need to be learnt.

  Dear American people, the world is changing. The wind is changing too. We do realize those emerging economies face bigger challenge more than we know. We do see those countries from east to west all have some structural troubles that can not be resolved. People do feel that the US and Western Europe are still the safe heaven for investing. We do expect the US can get stronger and lead the world to pass through all those troubles emerging from those emerging economies.

Dear American people:

  It is a hard decision for you lately to decide how to help the people in Syria. We both know if American troop leaves Afghanistan sooner rather than later. The US economy may revive earlier rather than later. Mr. Bernanke had wondered how come the US economy can not back to its normal track. Many people think the reason is due to the heavy burden of Afghanistan and the larger wealth discrepacy in the US lately. You have to deploy a lot of troops in Afghanistan. You have to keep those American soliders back home safe and sound. It is always a scene we have to face. And there may have some people lost their boys there forever. We do know that there are many sorrows in the other side of world. Mr. Truman once decided to abandon the KMT regime in the mainland China. At the time, we see the cruelty of American people. Once Mr. Truman decides to stop the war against the Red China helping north Korea near the bounder of Korea land. We know what goes next. But if it just goes on and on, we also expect a big change may happen. We have to decide if we could afford the consequence. We have to ask ourselves if we could take the burden and the sorrow it creates. Or we just see a lot of American soldiers die for no solid reasons.

  I know Mr. McCain is a tough man. He deserves our respect. He thinks it is time that American people should get invloved in Syria. Let's discuss the pros and the cons on the Syria military issue. To be honest, a lot of people see many cons but a few pros. If American people get invloved in the Syria, then we will see even higher interest rate happens in the US. Now, a lot of American people have mortgages to pay. And the US needs the housing sector and related businesses blossom to help American people have decent life back. If the war happens and Mr. Obama sends the US troops to Syria, then we may see American people have to take the burden of Afghanistan once again. We also know that the democracy is not deep rooted in those Arab nations. They do not realize the dispute must be resolved by vote rather than by fight. Some people even have wrong religion about the way of daily life. They do not respect the human rights. They do not respect the women. It is so hard to change their mind sets. How could you ask American soliders to fight for this no reason fighting? We know those refuges from Syria are miserable. No one thinks the war should go on and on. There is a question you have to think hard- If American soldiers get involved in the Syria issue but can not stop their fightings, what would you do? Would you want to get involved in the Syria war in the first place if those hard workings are in vain? Or you may think something alternative to resolve the issue. To remove the regime is the best solution to let Syria live in peace? Or it just brings another Iraq or Afghnistan to the world?

  We all konw that if the people in Syria have no idea what democracy is, then the war is the prize they have to pay. If American generals can promise those people can learn a lot from their civil war and they will stop fighting each other after the US get involved, then you can send the troops. If those people just want another dictator or anthor strange way of daily life. And the life is as horrible as used to be or something we had seen in the old day of Afghnistan. Would you want American soliders to make those things happen?

  God helps those who help themselves. The people in Syria have to think hard how to resolve this issue, just like the people in Vietnam. American soliders die for no reason when the people in the country doesn't want to have the way American people think they should be. They love to embrace communist when their wealth discrepancy is severe or they think their government is corrupted. That is the situation of Vietnam. Communist may not be a bad thing for the people in Vietnam at the time, just as those same stories happen in Red China. When people live in starvation, they will finally realize the virtue of free economy. When people live in a miserable and freedomless situaiton, they may finally realize the joy of true freedom. It is the thing they have to learn. They have to learn a hard way to cherish what they have. No one can replace their roles to live their own life. They have to learn those things by themselves. The civil war is the prize they have to pay. Even we do feel sorry for themselves, but we should not replace the role of God. God has its way. One day when the people in Syria finally realize the democracy and happiness is the most important thing, the people in Syria will find a way to stop those stupid things. I am so sorry to say that again. Do not get involved in the thing that is wrong in the first place because it is so hard to make people change unless they really want to be.

  When the KMT leaves the mainland China in late 1950s, Chinese population is around 0.3 billions. Now the Chinese people in the Red China is around 1.2 to 1.4 billions. They chose to be that way. It is the consequence they have to face. Mr. Mao, their once leader, encourages their people to have more babies. Mr. Mao thinks it is a good way to against the Western world. It is the lesson Mr. Mao learns from the Korea war. Of course, it is not based on science. So the starvation comes. People in Red China finally realize the severe situation can't be stopped until they change. So they restrict parents to have more than one baby. The consequence still goes on and on. We still see the unresolvable situation happens in the Red China. It is the prize they have to pay. It is the thing they have to face. It is the way of life they chose, so is the consequence. Many people think the same way for Syria. People in Syria have to pay a big prize to learn those things. It is the life of Syria people that no one can replace. The situation is just like us, people in Taiwan, several decades ago. We learnt it in a hard way.

Dear American people:

  I urge you to look at your own problems seriously this time. There are more than 8 million American people with temporary jobs. Part-time American workers' salaries are no more than USD 850 per month and no more than 20K USD per year. Your congress just reduce the food stamp subsidy for the poor. There are 3 to 4 million American graduates with heavy student loans burden. The student loans total around 800 to 900 billion US dollars. It is not the time to start a new war with others. 

  Every American people must fully aware that the people in Iraq treat Americans as invaders, so are the people in Afghanistan. You had spent more than 5 to 6 trillion US dollars on those countries and just make your own economy even worse. I urge you to pay more attention on the America domestic issues.

  The USA has no money and no resource this time. American people can't afford to show the world how warm they are. Charity starts at home. American people should not be the world police. Everthing has its own destiny. God has its own way that we just could not see. I urge American people should not do silly things anymore. American people should try hard to fix the economy of USA. The first priority is to reduce the burden of your own people. Bring full-time jobs to American people. Try hard to help graduates reduce their student loan burden. I think it is time to ask the congress passing the law to increase the tax on the rich. It is an inevitable action you must do. 

  I know it is not my business. I know I am talkative. BUT I can not figure out how could your congressmen and congresswomen do so many cruel things on your own people. It makes me wonder if the democracy does resolve your own problems when around 80 percent of those congressmen or congresswomen are millionaires. I guess people in congress do pay a lot of attention on how to reduce their own tax burdens rather than on how to increase the welfare of all American people.