Dear American people:

  I have to remind you I do support Mr. Trump and think he is a great president compared with others. Lately, there is some discussion about the issue of 2006-2008 US financial crisis which includes AIG, Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, Bank of America and others. It recalls my memory back to more than ten years ago.

  Let me recall American's memory. At the time, you have Madoff's ponzi scheme and subprime mortgage scheme. Madoff promises so many people they coulld earn a good return from their investment into the fund Madoff manages. Subprime mortgage is the specific mortgage to lend money to those who do not have capability to get house loans or mortgages from merchant banks in the first place. At the time, the Fed thinks the loan volume of subprime mortgage is so small to get great impact to the financial system. And AIG, it is a forbidden word to say even today. I have no comment about the AIG, either.

  In the financial crisis, there are so many things needing to be addressed. The first one is the role of investment banks, no matter there is Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, Godman Sachs or Deutsche Bank. Before the 2008, the investment bank gets less regulation after the Glass-Stegall Act to deal with the 1920-1930 crisis. Unfortunately, the business that investment bank could get involved is not well defined and regulated. The house mortgage is the business of merchant banks which is under the regulation rule to decide who could get the loan and who couldn't. At the time of financial deregulation booming, there is some misbelief  that those deregulations could bring profit and market efficiency to the financial market. Then the tragedy happens in 2008. The most harm is the confidence of American people. This kind of misperception brings less regulation, not more, and leads the  United States and the whole world into an unforseeable disaster. No single financial institution should get out of touch from regulation is the lesson we learn. Unfortunately, because the special role of investment bank in the US, American people have wrong perception that investment banks have more knowledge than merchant banks and pension funds to deal with specific financial issues. In the old days, investment bank plays the role with wealth creation to support specifically no-easy-to-be-valued corporates or industries, we call them new business ventures. After many years of funding and supporting, as those firms go public, the investment banks get the most reward and become the hero of the society. Unfortunately, in the time of 2006-2008, we do not see that happen but a bunch of animals get lots of reward from the market and take advantage of less regulation of shadow banking system to bring the unprecedented harm to the United States and the whole world.

  Those activities of investment banks get involved belongs to the shadow banking, so does what Madoff does. The shadow banking once is considered to have some great contribution to the society. Hedge funds, private equity funds and other financial conduits other than merchant banks, they create value and bring market efficiency when the market gets its natural failure time as people fear. You see see those heros get up and do the right thing everyone is afraid to do saving the financial system. That is the story of George Soros and others having done before. George once broke the gate the Bank of England to make the pound float as it should be. So is Goldman Sachs, who once be considered as the market value creator who saves the financial system and plays a vital role to leverage the system for the good of American people. In 2008, there is no one but only ones with wrong perception of capitalism. The role of investment banks is not just getting involved with new business venture but to promote new idea and new business in some industry to the United States before 2008. Unfortunately, we do not see that kind of role playing in the US financial crisis but only some horrible self-protection acts which harms the whole financial system. Financial innovation becomes financial corruption.

  What kind of deeds they learn and have done at the time of 2006-2008 making me so frustrated until today? They take advantage of natural fraud in the process of securitization, especially the US type. In Europe, banks have loan securitization but leave the securities on the book of financial institutions which means the loan lender has the responsible to monitor and to evaluate how to deal with the default of unpayable loans all the time until the loan gets paid down or paid off. The special purpose vehicle (SPV) the US uses does not have regulated restriction when the loans are packaged to be the mortgage backed securities, CDO, CMO and others. The SPV plays the role for the true sales when the loan gets out of the loan lender's book, no one may have the ability to manage or monitor the loan quality if the base securities, built from the process of securitization, are sold in a specific waterfall package as isk transferring to others. Everyone is blind after the US type securitization get done at the time, especially for those subprime mortages.

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Dear American people:

  Here I go again. I have to confess to you that I do not want to live in the world anymore. Maybe as soon as pissible, I really mean that. I told my family member if some day she loses contact with me. It means that she could not get aceess with me from phone, then she should look for a locksmith to open the door of my place and check if I die in my bed. Then she should turn my body into ashes and make me disappear in this unpleasant world. Unpleasant? Yes, indeed. You know those Chiinese and Taiwanese really disturb me a lot and make me annoyed all the time. I have to stand with their bad attitude and stubborn, even stupid, prejudice on everything they thought that is right. The truth is, unfortunately, they are wrong all the time. And they just keep to be wrong hereafter. It is a prejudice never disappearing.

  I have read some articles on the website. All are talk about the white-black conflict in these days. I have to remind Americans that kind of thing will never go away even those black people get what they want all the time. It will just make things worse even if the black people always get what they want. We have witnessed the fact when the racial conflict is dominated by the story of black winning. In those days, the US economy gets worse but not better. I would rather choose the black poeple lose on purpose or intentionally, but American ppoeple win and live with a great economy. A great economy brings everyone happy, a lower unemployment rate for white and black people both. It is the fact I want to see. Please stop the racism examination because it doesn't help American people have a good job with a great salary all the time.

  I have to tell you that I really do not want to give you any suggestion anymore because I really hope my days on the earth is near the end. I have enough. Enough is enough.

  O.K. You could call me Jack, even I do not know what the meaning is. Let's talk about the US economy. What to do next if American people want this good time keep going on and on? My suggestion is on infrastructure and waste processing industries. On the infrastructure, I mean those ones who could bring income with the renovation such as airport or super highway. If you could tax 5 to 10 US dollars per person when they arrive or depart from the specific airport to compensate the usage of airport facilities. I think it would be a great story not to give too much burden to the local or central government. So does the story of super highway. On the waste processing, American people should know better how American waste pollute the world all the time. You could find obselete Dell computer in some Afirca nations. You could see some plastic waste of American brands all over the sea bed. American people still do not have solution to face their own wastes. American poeple should have some solutions to turn the waste into gold. That is a manufacturing job, to be honest.

  The other problem about the US is more than 21 trillion debt resolving. How to keep them down? How to pay down the debt without making people feel hopeless? To be honest, it is much harder than poeple know. It is not an easy question. Maybe you should ask Mr. Obama and Mr. Bush Jr. to think through, honestly. Mr. Trump has to spend some money on those things he wants to do to help American people and the world to be a better place. Do not deny Mr. Trump does a good job to bring the US economy alive. Do not refuse to admit Mr. Trump does a good job to revive the US economy. To use the market mechanism to help the government trim down the debt is the only way to decrease the government debt. To have a socilism healthcare is stupid. To regulate the heathcare business is a good idea but not to destroy the market mechanism behind. The Obamacare does destroy some good mechanism behind.

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Martin Feldstein是美國重要的經濟學家,也是美國NBER的主要創始人,對於美國的中性利率水準,之前在美國報刊曾經發表過一篇文章,文章的摘要如下...

1.過往美國中性利率(Neutral Rate)水準計算,通常是以恆常通貨膨脹率加上兩個百分點,在西元2008年以前,美國中性利率水準,一般總體貨幣學家以為是在4%-4.5%左右,若是以此十年前的觀點來看,美國目前利率水準離中性利率水準,還有一段不小差距。只是在西元2008年後,美國政府債務從10兆美元,急速膨脹到21兆-22兆美元,在西元2000年時,美國政府債務水準還不到兩兆,大約一點八兆左右,金融環境如此急遽變動,已造成目前美國中性利率水準估計上的困難,原因無他,因利率水準若是提高,勢必衝擊美國政府債務需支付公債債息,同時也導致美國政府債務負擔惡化情況更為險峻。這十幾年來,全球各先進民主國家債務水準站GDP比重,已隨各國財政惡化,外加政府在社會福利支出擴增而越來越高,美國很多金融學者為避免政府負擔重,均以為美國中性利率水準應往下調整1%到1.5%,否則政府公債債息負擔將過於沉重;換言之,這些學者均以為美國未來十數年,可能必須維持較低的利率水準,方有可能尋找出解決超過20兆美元政府債務的可能。




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Dear American people:

  The market reacts as Mrs. Clinton's wish. If Mrs. Clinton were the president, then we shall see the market stop moving upward two years ago. The bond yield of US Treasuries now may be around 0.4%, just like the yield of bund (The Germany Treasuries) today.

  Two years ago, every Democratic worshipper says Mr. Trump steals the crown of Mrs. Clinton. We all know that means the end of shares market booming. So let us go back to the original place and imagine what if Mr. Trump doesn't do anything to save the USA. We shall not see more than 3.5 million American people have their jobs in the US. We shall not see how the free market mechanism pushes down medicine price. We all know how hard Amazon did, to riase per hour payroll and help stabilize the medicine price through the online drugstore. It all thanks to the free market mechanism.

  Let's pretend that Mrs. Clinton already takes charge the USA around two years. What will happen? Without free market mechanism and Mr. Trump's moves for international trade to push manufacturing jobs and US dollars home, the rich Americans are reluctant to move their money home. So is the US enterprise. We will see there is not any manufacturing jobs created in the USA if Mrs. Clinton takes charge and continues what Mr. Obama did in his eight year's term. There is no mojo and no secret sause in the US when the free market mechanism does not help Americans.

  If American people really want the Democratic party control the congress and the senate, then we shall see the stock market goes back to where it starts when Mr. Trump takes charge the nation. We shall also see a lot of manufacturing jobs and service jobs lost in a couple of months hereafter because we may see Mr. Trump steps down as lots of crazy Democratic party supporters' wish. OK. Now, we could make their wishes come true before the election.

  Now we see the S&P 500 goes back where it starts before 2018. Next, we shall see it goes back to where it starts at the end of 2016. We shall see the S&P 500 index sinks even more when the Obama administration used out the prepared fund to support the US economy and left nothing to the new administration. So the Trump administration has to use the market mechanism to create even more jobs for American people. That is nothing but the truth.

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  有點好笑的是,今年諾貝爾經濟學獎,還真的輪到總體經濟學家得獎,而個人不知是有幸還是不幸,竟然又命中Paul M.Romer,那個在國際金融機構做經濟學家的Romer,同時也是批評美國總體經濟學界走向偏鋒和遠離百姓生活的Romer,一個孤獨的總體經濟學家,認為過往十數年總體經濟學界根本毫無建樹的Romer,竟然...真的...得到諾貝爾經濟學獎。誰又能不吃驚呢?



 坦白說,總體經濟學至今仍是一團迷霧,因西歐與美國始終未能解決菲利浦曲線消失,也始終未能發展出有用的總體經濟模型,來解讀目前歐美失業率高漲而通膨-失業率抵換關係消失的理由,甚至提出新做法來幫忙解決這個議題,很多過往存在總體經濟學中的抵換關係或共識其實早已消失,或許這是經濟學或是財務學者該努力發展的方向!!總體經濟學家該問問自己,為何實質景氣循環(Real Business Cycle,RBC)這個在八零年代紅極一時的總體景氣循環理論,至今連對此貢獻卓越學者,都已棄之如敝屣?大家一定知道說的是誰?當然是P. Romer,實質景氣循環這套理論(RBC),過往確實是從R. Lucas的理性預期學理(Rational Expectation)相關學理發展沿生出的,對經濟成長發展過程描述,在過往一直被以為在數理建構上非常嚴謹,只是至今始終完全不管用,也無法解決實際的經濟議題,這是經濟學界需仔細思考的議題,那就是經濟學畢竟是描述人的行為,始終不可能藉由自己定義與界定,先做好鞋子再去找適合的腳丫,就能進行預測!


   Milton Friedman先生曾以為經濟理論必須能解釋實際經濟現象,不能這樣做的,再漂亮的數學式....也是枉然!

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步驟1. Facebook與Instagram的運用


步驟2. 開始欺騙消費者


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Dear American people:

  I feel so sorry to know that Americans still have some fury inside. Market mechanism is the only remedy for dispute, including wealth sharing, medicare, education and other important things. American people may have some envy that other countries have the national healthcare system. The truth is that every country with national healthcare system has their own unresolved problems. The common one is the waste of medicare resource which increases the medicare cost higher and higher without limit. We do not know how much the Taiwan NHS will cost us. We don't even know how to make premium and cost meet. It seems to be impossible today and forever. In taiwan, in 2018, the NHS premium collection is around 290 billion New Taiwan dollars but the payment is around 690 billion New Taiwan dollars. There is a big discrepancy around 400 billion NTD this year. Based on the affordable principle we set, the government could not ask people to pay more premium under certain rules, but you could find the cost is three times than the premium collected today.

  We should not have the NHS in the first place. Now it becomes a pain for the government. From the beginning of Taiwan NHS, the government's payment is around 250 billion NTD per year. Unfortunately, the cost increases each year. After around 20 years, the payment goes to 700 billion per year which is around 2.5 times compared with the starting year. And the number is incrasing even we already make doctors and nurses in the clinic or primary hospital get less salaries for a long time. The salary of doctors and nurses in the clinic or primary hospitals are reduced at least around 30%-40% within 20 years. The payroll may get even less if the governement continues to cut the NHS cost.

  I know Americans have estimated the medicare-for-all system will cost you around 2.5 trillion USD in total. It is a nonsensse number. From our experience, the number is not countable. I guess it is the number of the three years' total. The cost will go up without limit if you use our rules to have your medicare-for-all system. If in first 3-4 years, the cost of medicare-for-all costs 2.5 trillion USD at least, then, after 16 years, the cost of 3 to 4 years will increase to 7.5 trillion USD. I have to remind you the number will keep increasing without bound. The cost will be hard to reconcile from the NHS premium because the mechanism design is so hard to make the number breakeven. No one knows how to make the numbers meet in a long term.

  The reason that American people could not afford to have medicare-for-all have following reasons

   1. Those people who still not have medicare, even after the Obamacare, is a big problem for the US government. The government doesn't know how much it will cost to let all those people, who don't have medicare coverage now, to have some form of basic medicare.

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  在賽局相關學理應用中,經常會談到機制設計(mechanism design)的問題,機制設計的主要目標是使得賽局參與者,能因為良善的機制設計,而出現資源不浪費與最終結果較為經濟的情況。對於犯罪議題,賽局的機制設計是針對特定議題討論,如何追求效用的極大與結果的合理性,對於企業經營的議題,討論的是投資者如何藉由企業相關的機制設計,能產出較高的績效並且適當回饋給股東。






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Dear American people:

  We got problems here. The only way American could help is to create an even larger pool for the accomodation of US dollars backing home. What people want is a higher yield rate for the US Treasuries to accomodate an even larger infolw of US dollar or to have even larger pools of international currencies, including British pound, Euro, Swiss Franc and other freely convertible currencies.

  Now we face the choice of death or alive, a road to freedom or the other. We need American people help the world to be a better place. We also hope Americans could open eyes to see the truth that people could not trust a nation with no freedom.

The first scerario.

  The US dollars all over the world comes home. Let emerging markets face the true value of themselves. To see is to believe, I guess. Therefore, the US Treasury yield needs to go up higher rather than lower to accomodate more US dollars home through a form of US Treasury purchasing. Before the negociation of Sino-US has some pleasant result that the world wants, all we could do is to let the US dollar go home. The China-US trade dispute may takes a longer time as people expect. Before that, Americans have no time to wait but to have a more robust economy with more full-time higher paid jobs and more prosper American families.

The second scenario.

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Dear Americans:

  Finally, American people are not getting themselves drunk but keeping sober this time. The latest news that the 2018 Q2 has 4.1% growth rate is not a miracle, but is expected to show the capitalism prevails. And people have to say that it is not enough when the participation rate has not reached the historical average for a long time in s sustainable way. It is not enough when the unemployment rate is from 3.8% to 4% where there are lots of American graduates wanting a job for life. It is not enough when China has created many new departments in their universities and colleges to study the artificial intelligent and big data for transportation, ecommerce, and every field in the daily life. The US has to work harder on new thoughts and create more miracles. It is not enough!

  Mr. Trump should know that the competition has just begun for the next decade, among China, Rssia and the United States. To show the world the capitalism is a much better system for human beings to survive than the socialism that government pays attention to everything is a must be. Yes, the US finally reaches the goal, like the used to be, more than 200K people get employed every month, more American people get a happily life, the government pays less attention on everything as the market mechanism shows its strength. But it is not the time to live in complacency when China is rising in a big way.

  American first is nothing wrong but to show how foolish the US academic society elite could be in previous years. American scholars preach the free trade letting American people lose their jobs to foreign countries. The naive thinking still lives on in the mainstream economic society of the US that the US should not bring the manufacturing jobs home because American people deserve cheaper goods imported. Does Mr. Trump know that American people have paid around five trillion US dollars to China in 20 years?  Even with tax raised on Americans, the US still has 19 to 20 trillion US dollars government debt when Mr. Trump goes to the White House. 

  Mr. Trump just brings all American people back to the right track when somebody brainwashes American people this and that and says American people should follow the path of socialism, not the extreme capitalism. Yes, they may be right when Americans are naive and so easy to be persuaded. Mr. Trump just gets the US back on the track to the decent capitalism society a year and half. Those elites of American society live in their ivory tower without knowing the true life of Americans for so long. Those scholars forget to consider the basic needs of Americans.

  What Mr. Trump should do and has not done yet is to help Americans have new kind of manufacturing jobs, not just embrace the old glory. The old day's jobs are full of toxic elements in the job environment. American people deserve a better manufacturing job in a much cleaner environment with less pollution.  Mr. Trump should know it better that the US should move on and let the old glory fade away. American people need a new life style that could help the US not to make the same mistakes again and forever. To have a more proper regulation on financial sector is a must be. 

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Dear American people:

  It is a decison about to live or die. Bring the manufacturing jobs home with new innovation is a must be today. From the history, we know electronic garbages are full of the world. Most of them are created from the United States and the most of those garbages are all made in China.

  Americans should find a way to change the life style of used-to-be, making it better and let bygone be bygone. Figure out how to reduce electronic garbages with useful recycling is a have to do. In the old days, Americans used to ship those garbages to Africa or China and pretend it doesn't exist. It must be changed from today. Manufacturing jobs should be reconsiderd to stay in the US with a new form. American people should know something new to cope with those useless disposed electronics garbage. American people should find a way or create a new industry to deal with electronic wastes. Or Americans should consider how to stop consuming those goods for good.

  Bring manufacturing jobs home to the US is not a dream or a slogan, but a new way of life all Americans people should think seriously. Manufacturing process needs a lot of innovations which will bring many Intelectural Property after the process is done. It should be left in the US but not China. Latest artificial intelligent related manufacturing goods should all be manufactured in the US only, not China. Ameircan should face this question with a cautious discussion but not just some ANTI-TRUMP stupid talks.

  Bring manufacturing jobs home, especially those ones about new way of communication and living style. American people should know it better to  deal with those issues seriously from today.

The theory of trade becomes... absurd...

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  回頭談郭台銘先生的中國夢,為何那個夢不是台灣夢?為何郭台銘先生不是在臺灣談手機該有自己的作業系統,不要再用Apple OS或是Android?為何不是臺灣工廠生產的生產大數據跟自動化,這些我們這二十年來不能進行嗎?企業不能藉此轉型嗎?工廠不能因此留在臺灣繼續嗎?



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蔡政府 VS 馬政府






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To Mr. Trump:

  It is a great moment to see the world peace going forward, especially for the Korea reunification. I have some suggestion for you, Sir. The first one is buying the US crops and send it to North Korea for free. T feed your enemy is one thing, to negociate with them is another. We all know that North Korea is short of food and people are starving. When Chinese retaliate not to buy US crops, the US government must stand out to help its own people. We all know the food will perish if it is not be consumed. So my suggestion is the US government spend some money get all those food and send it to North Korea for free.

  The second suggestion is Mr. Trump should be patient to the negociation with North Korea's leader. To help the kids understand what the world is and to help them grow is the first priority. To help them first may be an needed option because it is said the North Korea has spent more than 3 billion US dollar to own the nuclear weapon. It is the life saving money and the only share they have. Unfortunately, they spend it all. It needs to be replenished. Maybe, the US could use food, medicine and medical something to replace the money to  help North Korea this time. To prevent them have more money to do something bad and to help people in the North Korea directly.



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Dear Mr. Trump:

  I really hope you could be the best president of US. It doesn't depend on me but you. You have to put all selfish ideas down to help your own people. We have some problems now. The first problem is the revenge from China, especially to Taiwan this time. Taiwan just loses its long term friendship with Domi... 

  Now China realizes what's on people's mind. The most place shoud have financial crisis is China this time. Unfortunately, it is not easy to see when China still flood domestic financial market with their RMB. People go to China, just like poeple are attracted to a big CASINO. When people are full of chips they win from the game and want cash out, the casino owner refuses to pay and use a gun on their heads to force players join the game until they lose all their chips eventually. That is happening in China.

  China uses US dollars as a devastating weapon to Taiwan. Around 3 billion US dollars to buy a good friend with Taiwan for more than 70 years is bad for Taiwanese. To let one country cut their connection with Taiwan is bad for us. It is a sad story we face. The original sin is that China has too much US dollars and China uses US dollar as a weapon to let Taiwan bleeding most because Taiwanese stand on the side of USA. It is all related to the fact that everyone knows China issues too much RMB. China's central bank, PBOC as the CASINO owner, now uses capital control to against people chip out from this giant CASINO. We have no idea how the game ends. 

 We don't believe in China. I, personally, believe that China has no MOJO and will crash in the end. But all those things are based on a free market assumption what China is lack of. This time we see the CASINO owner, PBOC, refuses people to cash out. Even more, we see that China uses their US dollars to attack Taiwan hardly and purposely. Now China still has 3.1 trillion US dollars foreign exchange reserve. If they continue to use 3 billion US dollar for each country connected with Taiwan. China only needs around 60 billion US dollars to cut all our frinedly connections. What could the US do to help Taiwan this time?

  Now Taiwan independence is an inevitable thing Taiwanese have to face when Taiwan has no countries want to recognize its identity anymore. Taiwan should change its name of nation from Republic of China to something else about Taiwan in order to show our true nature. Taiwan should refuse to play this stupid game, one China xxx, anymore. The stupid game China's playing now, one China policy, is bad for the health of Taiwanese.

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