經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

Dear American people:

  We got problems here. The only way American could help is to create an even larger pool for the accomodation of US dollars backing home. What people want is a higher yield rate for the US Treasuries to accomodate an even larger infolw of US dollar or to have even larger pools of international currencies, including British pound, Euro, Swiss Franc and other freely convertible currencies.

  Now we face the choice of death or alive, a road to freedom or the other. We need American people help the world to be a better place. We also hope Americans could open eyes to see the truth that people could not trust a nation with no freedom.

The first scerario.

  The US dollars all over the world comes home. Let emerging markets face the true value of themselves. To see is to believe, I guess. Therefore, the US Treasury yield needs to go up higher rather than lower to accomodate more US dollars home through a form of US Treasury purchasing. Before the negociation of Sino-US has some pleasant result that the world wants, all we could do is to let the US dollar go home. The China-US trade dispute may takes a longer time as people expect. Before that, Americans have no time to wait but to have a more robust economy with more full-time higher paid jobs and more prosper American families.

The second scenario.

  Americans give up to fight with China in the trade argument which keeps China building more advanced warships and aircraft carriers to threat neighbors. Americans encourage the US dollar flow into those nations having great trade ties with China and let US dollars against the US itself. We should see the booming of emerging markets, especially those countries with stronger business relation with China. Of course, Anerican people could have some benefit from investment and trade in emerging markets. Only after American people may realize aircrafts with the US flag will be shot down some day in near future.

The story behind....

  In the first scenario, we could see the goal of American poeple should have to to reduce the income discrepancy of its own nation. I have to remind Americans again that there are 40 million American people still coounting on the food stamp program that the US government provides. We have no time to see some silly disputes between those affairs Mr. Trump had done before. American people have to give a totally different answer for those stupid questions this time. American fellows have to recognize that it is time to face a changing game. Let bygone be bygone. Americans have no time for those stupid deeds anymore.

  Now there is 174 trillion RMB circulating in China, the value is equivalent to 27 trillion US dollars in current exchange rate.  The foreign reserve of China is no more than 3.3 trillion US dollars lately. And something is going on in the projects of belt-road that China works hard to have. If Americans could not keep a sober mind like the 1980s when facing the Soviet Union, then people encourage Americans to choose the second scenario instead of the first scenario. The most implication will be to let those Americans with unhappy life keep having a miserable and vulnerable one.

  If the first scenario is chosen, the story behind is to reconstruct all the lost business Americans need in daily life in the United States. Car manufacturing, white goods manufacturing, daily life needs manufacturing and services are all important to have new jobs for Americans this time. Americans have to give up their narrow minds and embrace a totally new changing game. In the game, the US dollar plays a role to let the world keep its order. In the game, American people play the role of good guy to help the small and vulnerable people have a better life to against the bad one.

The result of first scerario should have...

 1. To have an even higher US bond yield to accomodate more US dollars home until disputes between the free world and the slave world get some better outcomes. It is for the US dollar accomodation which will be in terms of US Treasury purchasing. In simple words, to accomodate US dollars all over the world back to the US and help the money hold in the US Treasury.

 2. To have a more advanced US economy to lead the world in technology and artificial intelligentm or daily necessities....

     Americans have to figure out what kind of jobs is needed to accomodate more Americans to have a better job in following decades. Medicare for all may not be a dream but it needs a well thoughtful plan which is not the kind of Obamacare. The plan of Obamacare is rough and lousy whcih brings more debt and waste to the US.

3. To reshape the world trade rule when the United States remegociate with other nations or areas to have some fair games for American people to survive. All the trading partners include emerging market nations and developed nations.

4. To have some insight for the Africa-US relation, the US-middle America and the US-South Asia is what the world needs. Americans should have some plans to reshape the trade and business relation between the US and the rest of the world.

5. How much should the US Treasury yield rate go up is a big question American poeple should ask. The threshold should be accompanied with a booming US stock markets which could help people rebalance their portfolios without great loss in value. But how much should the US Treasuriy go up is a tough question which needs more calibration. Could we have discussion from all kinds of financial media lately? To help is to discuss and make the market mechanism work.

How higher should the US Treasury's yield go....

  To calibrate the question, we have to understand how many new jobs could the US corporates create in the US. The neutral rate is a moving target depending how many new jobs could be created this time because there is still some capacity from the balance sheet of the Fed.

.....

  (unfinished)