寫在前面:這個部分是Equity Valuation的最後一個部分!!再過來就是談Fixed-Income Valuation, Derivatives Valuation, Alternative Asset Valuation與 Portfolio Management等等主題,我們會在最後回頭談Econometrics 與 Economics & Finance!!預計各個部分多則3-5天,少則2-4天,預定四月底前完成!!坦白說為何需要retake...我是真的搞不太清楚,覺得又是另一樁黑獄了!!這世上本來就沒有甚麼公平,特別是對沒錢沒勢的人來說!!

Hello there:

  這裡主要談的是Private held Company的價值計算!!這個部分主要為Equity Valuation的應用,外加 Control premium 與 Liquidity premium的運用!!Private held company其股權集中度高,且缺乏流通性,相對上必須考量到大股東對於小股東的剝削(大股東有control premium,小股東有control discount),以及流通性不高的所產生的流動性貼水(liquidity discount)!!外加Private held company不如Public traded company其財報必須受到嚴格的審閱,可能並沒有會計師嚴格認證或審計上的檢驗,因此可能出現將過多資金投注在non-core operating business或者投入過多資金於公司管理階層的薪資上,以及可能未將Strategic synergy的效果做一個通盤考量,一但有public firm想購買它時,必須進行財報的重編,所以必須做normalized earnings的計算以及strategic or non-strategic synergies的考量!!對大企業來說,投資銀行偏好採用FCFF;,對於小企業來說,投資銀行偏好FCFE法!!

A. The requird rate of return calculation for private company:

  1.CAPM: E(R) = Rf + Beta*(E(Rm) - Rf)

  2. Extended CAPM : E(R) = Rf + Beta*(E(Rm) - Rf) + Size risk premium + Firm-specific risk premium

  3. Build Up Method:  r = Rf + Equity Risk premium + Size risk premium + Firm-specific risk premium + Industry risk premium

B. 一般說來private company valuation有幾種:Income approach, Market approach與Asset-based approach!!

(1)Income Approach (Absolute Valuation)

  1. The Free Cash Flow Method

   這個方法與傳統的Discounted Dividends Method相同,透過企業產生的現金流量來計算價值,而其Terminal value for the specific period必須小心計算後再折現,一般不是用constan growth model(GGM)就是用price multiple approach!!

  2. The Capitalized Cash Flow Method (CCM)

   the value of firm = FCFF(first period)/(WACC - g)

   此處採用的WACCoptimal capital structure中所採用的Debt/Asset Weight!!

   => the value of equity = the vale of firm - market value of debt

   or

   the value of equity = FCFE(fist period)/(r - g)

  3. the Excess Earnings Method 

  這個方法雷同於傳統的Residual Income method,只是今天將FCInv與NWCInv個別所產生的報酬從Normalized Net Income中扣除,然後剩下的就是企業的intagibles的部分,再用contant growth model(GGM)去計算intangibles的現值!i.e.,Projeted or estimated intangibles/[required return of intangibles - growth rate] 來得到intagible的現值!!最後將其三者加總,FCInv+NWCInv+intangibles的現值,就得到了企業的價值!!

(2) Market Approach (Relative Valuation)

  1. Guideline Public Company Method (GPCM)

    採用public traded company 資料!!

  2. Guideline Transactions Method (GTM)

    採用市場實際交易資料!!

 (小記)GPCM與GTM都考量兩點: non-public discount與control premium!! 兩者均透過price multiple的適當discount/premium處理,但control premium一般用在企業購併時,其投資目的為strategic,而非financial(non-strategic)!!!

  3. Prior Transaction Method

    使用市場資料評估minority interests的股權價值!!

(3) Asset Based Approach

   The value of Firm = The fair value of Assets - The fair value of liabilities

   一般適用於銀行(ALM for banks),快破產(financial distress)的企業,資源企業(natural resource firms),小公司或剛起步沒有很多intangibles的企業,以及有實質資產價值的企業(reits, close-ended fund company)等等!!

c. The Discount and Premium  of private company valuation

(1) The Discount for lack of control

   主要站在沒有控制權的小股東來看,因此會有control discount!!

   DLOC = 1= 1/(1+ control premium)

(2) The Discount for lack of marketability

   DLOM的計算相當繁複,可自行參閱相關資料!!

最終:Total discount = 1 - [(1 - DLOC)*(1 - DLOM)] 

 

 

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