經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

Dear American people:
  The market reacts as Mrs. Clinton's wish. If Mrs. Clinton were the president, then we shall see the market stop moving upward two years ago. The bond yield of US Treasuries now may be around 0.4%, just like the yield of bund (The Germany Treasuries) today.

Dear American people:
  I feel so sorry to know that Americans still have some fury inside. Market mechanism is the only remedy for dispute, including wealth sharing, medicare, education and other important things. American people may have some envy that other countries have the national healthcare system. The truth is that every country with national healthcare system has their own unresolved problems. The common one is the waste of medicare resource which increases the medicare cost higher and higher without limit. We do not know how much the Taiwan NHS will cost us. We don't even know how to make premium and cost meet. It seems to be impossible today and forever. In taiwan, in 2018, the NHS premium collection is around 290 billion New Taiwan dollars but the payment is around 690 billion New Taiwan dollars. There is a big discrepancy around 400 billion NTD this year. Based on the affordable principle we set, the government could not ask people to pay more premium under certain rules, but you could find the cost is three times than the premium collected today.

To be honest, it will be much tougher than everone knows. The United States is not that stronger anymore. So is Red China. So is Russia. But all of them try hard to tell the world who is the boss on the earth. I hope it will not be a disaster when Mr. Putin, Mr. Xu and Mr. Trump are all guys with self ego. They don't listen to what their people need. They don't care what their people want. It may be a combination we never imagine. All those guys have a lot of nuclear weapons. What a dangerous world we have!
This special edition will end before Jan 20, 2017. After that, we will wait and see what's going to happen when Trump's team get involved with real economy of the United States. Wish Mr. Trump could be a good president!  (not unpresidented, but unprecedented...).
(1) Reappoint J. Yellen as chairwoman in 2018 or keep it undecided. Wait and see until the time in 2018 comes

  It is an old story which tells people how Mr. Reagan once make Russian frightening  about the outer space weapon. It even makes the dismantle of the USSR to be a reality. Mr. Reagan is intelligent and smart enough making Russians scared. Could we expect Mr. Trump to be in the same situation? Now Mr. Trump faces Mr. Putin, a smart guy who runs the Russia more than a decade. Could we expect Mr. Trump smart enough to help the world? I think all it depends on the science. Some simple science makes American corportations lead in the world for several decades. Simple fact American people discover in daily life help American business grow and prosper. American people need that again to have their life back.
  Science does cost money which needs a lot of trial and errors. That is what Mr. Trump has to acknowledge. It is the reason why American people could move on. Higher technology makes a lot of things happen. Economics is the strong science Ameircans know better than the world. Computer science is antoher one that Red China still follows. But we have to admit Red China does catch up.
  For better or worse, we do expect the United States government reopen some NASA programs even a lot of private programs are on the way. Red China does invest a lot in their space programs. They try hard to catch up with the United States. American people should be inspired with some new aerospace programs.
 Monetary policy vs fiscal policy as noted

A Strong US dollar
  People all around the world do know better that Americans get used to strong US dollar with higher purchasing power. In 20 trillion US dollar debt, there has more than 70% in the hand of Americans. A strong US dollar may hurt US corporations, such as agriculture, information technology, airplane and car industries. It doesn't help US export much but bring more unfairly competition to America corporations. A strong US dollar may bring higher pruchasing power but leave more US corporations hard to compete with other global players. It bring more harm to US companies if the US dollar appreciates too much. Mr. Trump should know it better that the old day with lots of manufacturing jobs may come with a lot of unnecessary costs if the US dollar appreciates a lot. A weaker US dollar may help US corporations gain market shares. Of course, too weak US dollar may let other nations take advantage of weaker US dollar, but it is a necessary sin for the globalization of US dollar. US dollar should plays its role to be the most important international currency. A too stong US dollar is not a good idea for a heavily debt United States. The United States may want to build a self-sustained ecosystem. High technology US corporations need foreign markets to make a living. For Mr. Trump, he should know the thing better that the United States should choose what to give and what to take. A balance between a stronger US dollar and the survival US corporations needs to be compromised. People all around the world want the US dollar to be the most important international currency and we do want a prosper United States.  A weaker US dollar may help the world trading and let every nation uses the US dolllar as the tool for clearing. Mr Trump could have to rebalance the role of US dollar and US international corporations. Mr. Trump should keep in mind that the United States needs to let everyone own some US dollars to make trading with each other. A weaker US dollar may help the global trade and help US corporations to gain more market shares in the same industries. A too stong US dollar may harm the competitiveness of US corporations. To dominate the role of world currency, US dollar should be carefully taken care by the Trump administration.

  To be honest, I am tired of China. I do feel depressed when talking about those issues of China. The reason China makes me feel helpless is its wrong determination to help people living in mainland China. Red China uses wrong ways to help the economy grow and tries hard to fix in a more absurd method.
Unreal growth numbers
  It is a wrong perception thinking China have a higher growth rate compared with others. Red China does invest lots on the infrastructure but gets little from it. To elaborate Chinese people and make them have something to do is the purpose to waste so much money on railroad and high speed trains. Red China is eager to modernize its nation in which the communist party invests a lot in the infrastructure. It brings people with higher inflation and gives the associated people with those projects ton of money to corrupt. The reason why Red China feels much better about its economy is due to the 2008 US financial crisis. It makes people panic and flow out their money into emerging markets. The crisis makes Red China feel confidence and think the possibility to replace the role of the United States. Of course, it is a wrong perception amid the lower development of Red China.

   We do hope to regain the mutual recognition between Taiwan and the United States. That is a big step for Mr. Trump to know a lot of things better. For years, people living in Taiwan do account for the help of American people. People living in Taiwan also help the United States a lot as Mr. Obama always tells the world. People living in Taiwan help the United States and respect the democracy system. We hope the normalization between the United States and Taiwan could go even further after Mr. Trump becomes the president of United States from day 1. We hope we could have a new bilateral trading agreement (FTA) between the United States and Taiwan. We love to be a part of new supply chain among Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the United States. We also love to move our factories back from the mainland China. We want to be a part of the re-emerging US manufacturing team. We love to let people living in Taiwan could have a decent life manufacturing some pieces of component for the US manufacturing industry. We hope out people could regain their lifes as a new part of supply chain for the US manufacturing industry. We hope the mainland China's role in the supply chain could be largely reduced, then we could not be threatened by the horrible Communist China.

A man with no experience
  Mr. Trump is a man with no governing experience. To be honest, even I do believe he wants to be a good president, I can't guarantee if he could get the job done amid no public servant experience. It is a fact that there are more 1.5 million American people vote for Mrs. Clinton than (for) Mr. Trump. It shows that Mr. Trump does win the election but he doesn't have the majority support from the whole American people.
  It is nothing about trust or not, to Mr. Trump. I think Mr. Trump needs a well organized team for economic management and governance. From the histroy, we do know that the former president, Mr. Bush Jr., doesn't listen to his team for many suggestions. We see the crisis comes at last. I do worry about Mr. Trump could not keep his bad temper on many things and listen to his advisers well on many hard issues. It is not a president should have. Mr. Trump is already 70 years old with a lot of grandchildren. He should learn how to keep a smile on his face even he feel unfair treatment. Mr. Trump has to negotiate with foreign leaders on many issues, and those leaders may eat him alive if Mr. Trump could not have a clear mind.

Disappointed long term unemployment in the USA
  A deeply unresolved problem in the United States faces is the long term unemployment. Lately we see the initial jobless claim number of US is around 235K which is the lowest number we know in a decade.  But the long-term unemployement number is still around two million (1.97 million) in the United States. There are two million people in the United States eager to have a job but could not have. This time, we see those people who vote for Mr. Trump amid a slogan of making America great again. People feel so disappointed to the US authority for years due to the globalization and the outsourcing. People who feel so despaired and want somebody help them having a decent life. That is the reason why we see small town voters choose Mr. Trump. They deeply hope Mr. Trump could turn the situation around. Two million people in the Unted States could not have a job for such a long time expect to have some big changes. That is the reason why even Michigan and Ohio State votes for Mr. Trump this time. They want some changes this time.
A job training program or a college diploma
  It is time to act for Mr. Trump. It is time for the president-elect to know better what American people need. What they need is nothing else but a full-time job. The new US authority msut have some plans in heart to know which sector or industry has to be developed in the United States and what kind of skills the industry needs for the worker. Furthermore, how to train those people in the long-time unemployment situation have a job there. It all depends on the leadership of Mr. Trump. To have some thoroughly discussions with lots of  people and to decide what to go next for the United States is important. What people need may not be a diploma but a practical job training program. A lot of job vacancies still need people to fill in the United States, for now. Those long-term unemployed people could not fill the need amid a lower skill they have.

  Mr. Trump says he want to bring back the manufacturing jobs to the USA. People with experience know the issue is a little bit harder than Mr. Trump think. In modern society, a car built needs a lot of parts. Supply chain is hard to be rebuilt in the United States when the labor cost is high and job training cost is uncertain.
  I know Mr. Trump wants a self-sustained society to be reborn in the United States. The hard part is the U.S. corporation with higher technology needs to export their products. Red China is threatening to use AirBus replace Boeing for several years already. AirBus even brings a assembly line to Red China to help its business growing.
  International trade issue between United States and Red China is the most critical one Mr. Trump has to face. Yes, Red China does a lot of dirty things to stop fair trading between United States and Red China. Yes, Red China even tries hard to protect its own business in many ways. The rising of Alibaba is due to the closure of Yahoo in mainland China. Yahoo becomes a big shareholder of Alibaba. Google is replaced by Baidu in Red China long time ago amid the lack of self-censoring on information. Red China is a communist country led by the Chinese communist party. It makes people hard to reason with them on many international trade issues. A lot of American corporations make lots of efforts to make money in mainland China. Most of them fail because of the government's intention to protect specific industry or corporation. The only way to resolve the problem is making the trade easier but not harder.