經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

My Dear American Friends:

  I know you are so eager to know the time and how to for the next FED's quantitative easing. I think it is a little hestitate to implement QE3 right now even though I know traders all around the world wait for the next big move of FED. The reasons I think this way are as follows:

  (1)The Dodd-Frank Act has not reached to the steady state of its financial overhaul yet. We are still not sure if the QE3 will cause anthoer consequence of wealth wrongly-redistrubution. I think if your congressmen and congresswomen can pass some laws to restore the "Bush Tax Cut" back to its first place. I guess the time would be better to perform this world's wealth-redistribution mechanism. You can see those things from cash flow reservation of larger American corporations, like GE, P&G and especially Apple. They all have enormously outstanding cash preservations. It shows that they have doubt for the near future economic situation, especially for the United States of America. The basic idea of Quantitative Easing for Uncle Sam is it helps people to restore their confidences and to help them get their jobs back instead of a new round of financial gambling. Therefore, this time you need to go physical overhaul FIRST. As everyone gets better, the time for the consesus reached, the next quantitative easing will perform better. I guess it will be quite easy to largely reduce the umemployment rate of your nation at that time. As the financial infrastructure is rebuilt and the new money-flow chain gets itself working. The time for the new around quantitative easing may be a better time point.

  (2)Right now, I think maybe the FED should perform the "Twist operation" again, the aim is to largely reduce the mortgage rate of old homeowners. In order to help them rebuild their family's balance sheets and to let them have the ability to increase their saving rates. The improvement of saving rate means the long-term confidence restore and it will have its big impact for ordinary mortage-burden families to show their consumption power later. And as Mr. Obama proposes, the tuition for the entry of universities, the medical or law schools, or colleges has its impact for the family's wealth accumulation. The direction is right, but I know the larger part of those subsidies come from each state instead of federal government. It is the power of state instead of the federal government!! The Obama administration has liitle power for the advance education budget allocation instead of the fundings of scholarship. Therefore, a new around coordination between federal government and states becomes an even-harder challenge uncle Sam has to face!! The aim is to increase the saving rate of ordinary American family in coming years and to restore the house price through the new around twist operation seems to be the first choice before another round QE!!

  (3)The right moment for the QE3 may be judgemental as it provide an insurance for the further market downturn, especially for those worries if the long-term down trend has been formed. Of course, the QE3 should be performed before this possible disaster. But from the lately news we gather, it shows that the hot money flows back to the safe heaven of U.S. treasuries market even many countries reduce their holdings of U.S. treasuries to be their currency reservations. American economy is reviving in a slow pace. It just gets better little by little. Not performing QE3 right now is a goold sign for  uncle Sam but bad for other nations, especially those Asian coutires who need the money to support their export production. As the tight situation of global liquidity happens, it will push the good company's stock to be skyhigh and let those not-so-good ones to be a little bit lower than their intrinsic values.This is what we have to worry about. But the Uncle Sam has his bad habits for decades, maybe it is the right time to let him stop using drugs and exercise himeself to get a better shape!! God helps those who help themselves. I believe in God and think God has its way!!

  (4)If uncle Sam can stand on its own feet, then how come we should promote quantitative easing policy now? If uncle Sam know his disease is from his unregular exercises and eating too much, then how come uncle Same wants some special treatments instead of regular exercises? If uncle Sam knows himself more than we did, then how come we are so critical to its own policy implement? All those answers are given by uncle Sam, we have no rights to say anything about it!! The U.S.A. is a great nation because it has reflective attitude to its own problems and it always come out with a not-perfect-but-compromised action!! That is why it is so great!! That is why it needs no QE3 right away!!

   All in all, as the QE3 is an emergency plan, we should not expect too much if it is not in a dire situation. The implementation of QE3 should be the plan B this time instead of the plan A.