目前分類:Special Edition of USA (10)

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Dear American people:

  I feel so sorry to know that Americans still have some fury inside. Market mechanism is the only remedy for dispute, including wealth sharing, medicare, education and other important things. American people may have some envy that other countries have the national healthcare system. The truth is that every country with national healthcare system has their own unresolved problems. The common one is the waste of medicare resource which increases the medicare cost higher and higher without limit. We do not know how much the Taiwan NHS will cost us. We don't even know how to make premium and cost meet. It seems to be impossible today and forever. In taiwan, in 2018, the NHS premium collection is around 290 billion New Taiwan dollars but the payment is around 690 billion New Taiwan dollars. There is a big discrepancy around 400 billion NTD this year. Based on the affordable principle we set, the government could not ask people to pay more premium under certain rules, but you could find the cost is three times than the premium collected today.

  We should not have the NHS in the first place. Now it becomes a pain for the government. From the beginning of Taiwan NHS, the government's payment is around 250 billion NTD per year. Unfortunately, the cost increases each year. After around 20 years, the payment goes to 700 billion per year which is around 2.5 times compared with the starting year. And the number is incrasing even we already make doctors and nurses in the clinic or primary hospital get less salaries for a long time. The salary of doctors and nurses in the clinic or primary hospitals are reduced at least around 30%-40% within 20 years. The payroll may get even less if the governement continues to cut the NHS cost.

  I know Americans have estimated the medicare-for-all system will cost you around 2.5 trillion USD in total. It is a nonsensse number. From our experience, the number is not countable. I guess it is the number of the three years' total. The cost will go up without limit if you use our rules to have your medicare-for-all system. If in first 3-4 years, the cost of medicare-for-all costs 2.5 trillion USD at least, then, after 16 years, the cost of 3 to 4 years will increase to 7.5 trillion USD. I have to remind you the number will keep increasing without bound. The cost will be hard to reconcile from the NHS premium because the mechanism design is so hard to make the number breakeven. No one knows how to make the numbers meet in a long term.

  The reason that American people could not afford to have medicare-for-all have following reasons

   1. Those people who still not have medicare, even after the Obamacare, is a big problem for the US government. The government doesn't know how much it will cost to let all those people, who don't have medicare coverage now, to have some form of basic medicare.

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To be honest, it will be much tougher than everone knows. The United States is not that stronger anymore. So is Red China. So is Russia. But all of them try hard to tell the world who is the boss on the earth. I hope it will not be a disaster when Mr. Putin, Mr. Xu and Mr. Trump are all guys with self ego. They don't listen to what their people need. They don't care what their people want. It may be a combination we never imagine. All those guys have a lot of nuclear weapons. What a dangerous world we have!

This special edition will end before Jan 20, 2017. After that, we will wait and see what's going to happen when Trump's team get involved with real economy of the United States. Wish Mr. Trump could be a good president!  (not unpresidented, but unprecedented...).

(1) Reappoint J. Yellen as chairwoman in 2018 or keep it undecided. Wait and see until the time in 2018 comes

    To keep the Fed in stable is a must-be action when Fed still holds around five trillion US government debts in the balance sheet. It is not proper to threaten Mrs. Chairwoman to leave. It is impolite for a president to to act something like that. Mr. Bernanke has stayed for a second term even he is a Republican. Mr. Trump should wait and see what the Fed could do for his fiscal policy, then decide what's next in 2018. The independence of Fed should be respected. The Fed does good than harm to the United States. Everyone knows that Mrs. Yellen emphasizes employment than growth for the United States. It is good for a society in which people are so hard to find a decent life.

(2)Be careful the tax cut, it should have some plan and incentive action in the first place

   From the experience in 2004, as Mr. Gross mentioned lately, the Bush's tax cut only let US big corporations buyback their shares from the market or pay even higher dividends. If Mr. Trump's team wants some industries to have further development in the United States, then the US government should bring some incentive to big US corporations. It may help American people have jobs in the industry. Help US big corporation to repatriate the money from oversea and use it for further industry development is not an easy job.

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  It is an old story which tells people how Mr. Reagan once make Russian frightening  about the outer space weapon. It even makes the dismantle of the USSR to be a reality. Mr. Reagan is intelligent and smart enough making Russians scared. Could we expect Mr. Trump to be in the same situation? Now Mr. Trump faces Mr. Putin, a smart guy who runs the Russia more than a decade. Could we expect Mr. Trump smart enough to help the world? I think all it depends on the science. Some simple science makes American corportations lead in the world for several decades. Simple fact American people discover in daily life help American business grow and prosper. American people need that again to have their life back.

  Science does cost money which needs a lot of trial and errors. That is what Mr. Trump has to acknowledge. It is the reason why American people could move on. Higher technology makes a lot of things happen. Economics is the strong science Ameircans know better than the world. Computer science is antoher one that Red China still follows. But we have to admit Red China does catch up.

  For better or worse, we do expect the United States government reopen some NASA programs even a lot of private programs are on the way. Red China does invest a lot in their space programs. They try hard to catch up with the United States. American people should be inspired with some new aerospace programs.

 Monetary policy vs fiscal policy as noted

  Take the monerary policy versus the fiscal  policy for example, people in the academy do think the former one is better but the latter one is unecnomic. When the Fed implements the monetary policy to help the economy, we do see the Fed could restore the economy easier even if the Fed wants to shrink its balance sheet. But if the government implements the fiscal policy, the debt piling is for sure and not reversible. In the case of monetary policy, the Fed could withdraw money from the system by selling all those government-sponsored debt to the market. Then we will see the US dollar level around the world goes down. On the contrary, in the case of fiscal policy, the reverse may not be easy. Spilled waster is hard to recover. Government may try hard to tax people to purchase back those debt issued for the fiscal policy. To be honest, scholars do think fiscal policy does harm than good if those programs get something wrong. Those programs may bring even more problems to the society if the fiscal policy doesn't implement well. It is a science instead of a lousy alchemy that the monetary policy could be done much easier than the fiscal policy. People should know the difference better.

A new industry with long term promise

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A Strong US dollar

  People all around the world do know better that Americans get used to strong US dollar with higher purchasing power. In 20 trillion US dollar debt, there has more than 70% in the hand of Americans. A strong US dollar may hurt US corporations, such as agriculture, information technology, airplane and car industries. It doesn't help US export much but bring more unfairly competition to America corporations. A strong US dollar may bring higher pruchasing power but leave more US corporations hard to compete with other global players. It bring more harm to US companies if the US dollar appreciates too much. Mr. Trump should know it better that the old day with lots of manufacturing jobs may come with a lot of unnecessary costs if the US dollar appreciates a lot. A weaker US dollar may help US corporations gain market shares. Of course, too weak US dollar may let other nations take advantage of weaker US dollar, but it is a necessary sin for the globalization of US dollar. US dollar should plays its role to be the most important international currency. A too stong US dollar is not a good idea for a heavily debt United States. The United States may want to build a self-sustained ecosystem. High technology US corporations need foreign markets to make a living. For Mr. Trump, he should know the thing better that the United States should choose what to give and what to take. A balance between a stronger US dollar and the survival US corporations needs to be compromised. People all around the world want the US dollar to be the most important international currency and we do want a prosper United States.  A weaker US dollar may help the world trading and let every nation uses the US dolllar as the tool for clearing. Mr Trump could have to rebalance the role of US dollar and US international corporations. Mr. Trump should keep in mind that the United States needs to let everyone own some US dollars to make trading with each other. A weaker US dollar may help the global trade and help US corporations to gain more market shares in the same industries. A too stong US dollar may harm the competitiveness of US corporations. To dominate the role of world currency, US dollar should be carefully taken care by the Trump administration.

A too high yield rate of US Treasuries

  We all know that the mortgage rate and the loan rate both depend on the yield rate of US 10-yr Treasuries. A much higher yield of US Treasuries may harm American people. It makes people to have higher mortgage to pay and make people have higher burden when they need money to do something. It also hurts the business people when they want to make loans from the bank. Mr. Trump should know that even a well-function fiscal policy needs a lower borrowing cost which depends on a lower yield of Treasuries. A lower burden to develop some business is the basic Mr. Trump should know better. A too high yield rate of US Treasuries bring even higher cost for every business in the United States. It is not a good idea to have such a higher burden for ordinary American people to develop their own business or make a loan from the banking system. People should try hard to let US Treasury yields go down to have a peaceful mind for whole American people.

A self-sustained ecosystem with manufacturing jobs, but.....

  It is an ideal situation that every advanced nation wants but can't have. Advanced nation is an open economy whose currency may be use for global trade clearing. The US dollar is one of them. Trump administration should know that more manufacturing jobs created in the United States should avoid two things, one is the environmental problem and the other is the not-so-good spillover effect. Mr. Trump knows that Red China does get a more than hundred billion US dollars from the trading each year between the United States and mainland China. But Mr. Trump should take care the US domestic issue better than the Red China-US trade issue hereafter. An emerging new ecosystem of US manufacturing may help people of United States have a decent life.  But it needs a careful crafted plan and implemetation. A well functioning financial market of United States would do the rest. A free society has the ability to find the comprimise among all those issues when the Trump administraiton makes the thing happen on the manufactrung jobs creation in the United States. How to make the ecosystem self-sustained is not an easy job. To make people have a full time job in the long run is the core issue Mr. Trump faces. 

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  To be honest, I am tired of China. I do feel depressed when talking about those issues of China. The reason China makes me feel helpless is its wrong determination to help people living in mainland China. Red China uses wrong ways to help the economy grow and tries hard to fix in a more absurd method.

Unreal growth numbers

  It is a wrong perception thinking China have a higher growth rate compared with others. Red China does invest lots on the infrastructure but gets little from it. To elaborate Chinese people and make them have something to do is the purpose to waste so much money on railroad and high speed trains. Red China is eager to modernize its nation in which the communist party invests a lot in the infrastructure. It brings people with higher inflation and gives the associated people with those projects ton of money to corrupt. The reason why Red China feels much better about its economy is due to the 2008 US financial crisis. It makes people panic and flow out their money into emerging markets. The crisis makes Red China feel confidence and think the possibility to replace the role of the United States. Of course, it is a wrong perception amid the lower development of Red China.

The consequences of 2008 US financial crisis for Red China

  The biggest problem Red China faces during those years after the 2008 financial crisis Lehman Brothers brings is those inflated growth rates local governments make. The inflated growth number was once thought to be a guarantee to let local supervisors step into the central government circle. Once the greater number seems to promise a brighter future in the political society of Red China. Remember, a lot of local autority leaders are jailed in lately years because of corruptions and murders. Even in Red China, a nation which doesn't treat law as something, could not tolerate those leaders from the criminal charge. In those stories, we know even tanks are shown in front of U.S. embassy in the story to ask people leave. Frankly speaking, Red China is a country even Mr. Xi could not save or protect amid a long time corruption and deeply unlawful situation. Red China is at risk more than everyone knows.

Red China at Risk

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   We do hope to regain the mutual recognition between Taiwan and the United States. That is a big step for Mr. Trump to know a lot of things better. For years, people living in Taiwan do account for the help of American people. People living in Taiwan also help the United States a lot as Mr. Obama always tells the world. People living in Taiwan help the United States and respect the democracy system. We hope the normalization between the United States and Taiwan could go even further after Mr. Trump becomes the president of United States from day 1. We hope we could have a new bilateral trading agreement (FTA) between the United States and Taiwan. We love to be a part of new supply chain among Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the United States. We also love to move our factories back from the mainland China. We want to be a part of the re-emerging US manufacturing team. We love to let people living in Taiwan could have a decent life manufacturing some pieces of component for the US manufacturing industry. We hope out people could regain their lifes as a new part of supply chain for the US manufacturing industry. We hope the mainland China's role in the supply chain could be largely reduced, then we could not be threatened by the horrible Communist China.

  We hope the trading partnership could be more coherent between the United States and Taiwan. We know lately the internationalization of RMB becomes a big failure due to a higher bad debt level in the Red China. Now, Red China is losing its foreign exchange reserve of US dollars gradually. Red China even worries about the depletion of its foreign exchange reserve and starts its own version of capital control. Red China starts to keep people in the mainland China from buying gold and precious metal from abroad. Red China is even considering stop importing material from outside. We do see that Chinese communist party memebers have no determination to save people from the disaster. Red China has no determination to cut the overproduction of steel and others making the world face a deflation threat.  It also leads other nations be treated unfairly in the global trade. 

  Taiwan ia a part of ancient China, but not a part of  P.R.O.C. Our sovereign name is Republic of China, R.O.C. We hope Mr. Trump has the determination helping us to have a global recognition. We don't pursue Taiwan independence. We just want our name back. We want the whole world to know the Republic of China (Taiwan) better. We want the world knows that Taiwan is different from the mainland China. We want the world knows Taiwan is a sovereign nation with democracy and advanced economy. We want our name back in front of the world.

  I really hope Mr Trump could help Taiwan has a normal relation with the United States. People living in Taiwan get suffered enough from the bully of mainland China. We hope we could have mutual recognition between the United States and Taiwan. It is about the time. People living in Taiwan get suffered as other US allies from those disasters of 911, 2008 financial crisis and the lately Red China bully. We get together and have been through with people in the United States for many things. We are a stronger supporter of the United States, for better or worse. We do need a big hand from the United States. We hope the United States could help us build submarines, warships and provide sufficient of advanced aircrafts and weapons to defend ourselves. We don't try to pursue the independence of Taiwan. We want to have a normalization with the United States in the name of Republic of China.

  I have to confess the tear in my eyes when I write down the thing on the relation normalizaton betwween the United States and Taiwan. I know it leaves a hope of reunification of China somewhere. But we do hope China will be reunified on an equal stand. Maybe, someday, we could see a democratic mainland China emerges. Maybe, someday, we could see the Chinese communist party knows the time to let people have democracy is coming. Maybe, someday, we could see a more civilized Chinese communist party, but now we don't have it. A corrupted mainland China with severe air pollution and a larger wealth discrepancy is what we see about the Red China lately. It is not our motherland. It is not our hometown. We live in Taiwan. All the people in Taiwan are our people. We pursue the best interest of whole people living in Taiwan. Our country has its name, Republic of China.

  I am a Chinese and always be. I am also a Taiwanese and always be. I hope we could have the formal recognition from the United States. I hope Mr. Trump could pursue the relation normalization between the United States and Taiwan now. I hope people in the United States know better that Taiwan is always an ally of the United States. We, people in Taiwan, have been through all those stuffs with American people for several decades already. People in Taiwan are a big supporter of the United States. We hope American people could help us this time.

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A man with no experience

  Mr. Trump is a man with no governing experience. To be honest, even I do believe he wants to be a good president, I can't guarantee if he could get the job done amid no public servant experience. It is a fact that there are more 1.5 million American people vote for Mrs. Clinton than (for) Mr. Trump. It shows that Mr. Trump does win the election but he doesn't have the majority support from the whole American people.

  It is nothing about trust or not, to Mr. Trump. I think Mr. Trump needs a well organized team for economic management and governance. From the histroy, we do know that the former president, Mr. Bush Jr., doesn't listen to his team for many suggestions. We see the crisis comes at last. I do worry about Mr. Trump could not keep his bad temper on many things and listen to his advisers well on many hard issues. It is not a president should have. Mr. Trump is already 70 years old with a lot of grandchildren. He should learn how to keep a smile on his face even he feel unfair treatment. Mr. Trump has to negotiate with foreign leaders on many issues, and those leaders may eat him alive if Mr. Trump could not have a clear mind.

  I do worry Mr. Trump could not have a strong team as Mr. Obama. Mr. Trump should ask more opinions from professionals and scholars in the US academic society. Mr. Trump should ask for a second opinion or suggestion on many issues if he could not know those issues well from the first suggestion. I know a lot of market people join to be consultants. I really hope Mr. Trump could keep an eye on them because most of them are involved with the 2008 financial crisis. They should be consulted for many financial problems with real financial market dramatic changing and be watched out closely.

A roadmap for the infrastructure

  Mr. Trump should know that a lot of infrastructure plans have no faster reward but only with good spillover effect on ordinary American people. In practice, government rebuild or fix some broken roads or bridges may not bring a lot of benefits immediately to the economy even it may facilitate trading in the United States alone. Well connected high speed roads connect people and make more traveling and trading possible among American people. So do airport renovation. Those benefits are not well calculated in the first place which means the projects may be let many investors want to join unless they are not toll-free. We do worry bad spill-over effects may bring lots of greenback outside the United States when purchasing building materials outside the US and pushing local interest rate level even higher. It may bring more burden on the US government with the debt level rising.

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Disappointed long term unemployment in the USA

  A deeply unresolved problem in the United States faces is the long term unemployment. Lately we see the initial jobless claim number of US is around 235K which is the lowest number we know in a decade.  But the long-term unemployement number is still around two million (1.97 million) in the United States. There are two million people in the United States eager to have a job but could not have. This time, we see those people who vote for Mr. Trump amid a slogan of making America great again. People feel so disappointed to the US authority for years due to the globalization and the outsourcing. People who feel so despaired and want somebody help them having a decent life. That is the reason why we see small town voters choose Mr. Trump. They deeply hope Mr. Trump could turn the situation around. Two million people in the Unted States could not have a job for such a long time expect to have some big changes. That is the reason why even Michigan and Ohio State votes for Mr. Trump this time. They want some changes this time.

A job training program or a college diploma

  It is time to act for Mr. Trump. It is time for the president-elect to know better what American people need. What they need is nothing else but a full-time job. The new US authority msut have some plans in heart to know which sector or industry has to be developed in the United States and what kind of skills the industry needs for the worker. Furthermore, how to train those people in the long-time unemployment situation have a job there. It all depends on the leadership of Mr. Trump. To have some thoroughly discussions with lots of  people and to decide what to go next for the United States is important. What people need may not be a diploma but a practical job training program. A lot of job vacancies still need people to fill in the United States, for now. Those long-term unemployed people could not fill the need amid a lower skill they have.

Waiting for a Superman

  Now, those people have their wake-up call from Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump is a man who dares to speak out others don't. Mr. Trump dares to try many ways to win people's heart. Those people, with a long term unemployment situation, come out and vote for Mr. Trump. They are waiting for a superman. They are Mr. Trump's same kind waiting someone who dare to try many ways to get the job done. Mr. Trump always criticise the phony politics in Washington. DC. Mr Trump always criticise the authority doesn't satisfy people's need. Now those people in Wiscousin state, Michigan State and Phildephia State all vote for Mr. Trump. Deep in their hearts, they wish a superman to save them from those disasters, from those unpleasant memory of unemployment. They want their lifes back. They think those Quantitative Easing things in the Unted States have nothing to do with their lifes even it does make Mr. Trump richer. Two million American people with long-term unemployment want to have a decent life. Does Mr. Trump really know what's the meaning behind and how come Mr. Trump could win in those states once vote for Democratic party for such a long time but change their minds this time? Does Mr. Trump really want to help those people in his full heart? Does Mr. Trump really know what he is doing when he says something on Youtube, Facebook, Twitter or somewhere else? Does Mr. Trump really want to help those people or just want to become the president of United States only?

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  Mr. Trump says he want to bring back the manufacturing jobs to the USA. People with experience know the issue is a little bit harder than Mr. Trump think. In modern society, a car built needs a lot of parts. Supply chain is hard to be rebuilt in the United States when the labor cost is high and job training cost is uncertain.

  I know Mr. Trump wants a self-sustained society to be reborn in the United States. The hard part is the U.S. corporation with higher technology needs to export their products. Red China is threatening to use AirBus replace Boeing for several years already. AirBus even brings a assembly line to Red China to help its business growing.

  International trade issue between United States and Red China is the most critical one Mr. Trump has to face. Yes, Red China does a lot of dirty things to stop fair trading between United States and Red China. Yes, Red China even tries hard to protect its own business in many ways. The rising of Alibaba is due to the closure of Yahoo in mainland China. Yahoo becomes a big shareholder of Alibaba. Google is replaced by Baidu in Red China long time ago amid the lack of self-censoring on information. Red China is a communist country led by the Chinese communist party. It makes people hard to reason with them on many international trade issues. A lot of American corporations make lots of efforts to make money in mainland China. Most of them fail because of the government's intention to protect specific industry or corporation. The only way to resolve the problem is making the trade easier but not harder.

  To protect United States from unfair trading with mainland China needs more sophisticated consideration instead of higher taxes for the import of Chinese manufacturing goods. Higher barrier rather than higher taxes is a good idea. Higher standard of product quality and higher requirement for the producing process such as no cheap labor or no expropriation of labor rights may be another good idea. If the product doesn't satisfy the decisive requirement, then the US government could ask to stop importing. It may increase the production cost and quality. It may even reduce the cheap labor elaboration of mainland China. 

  From the perspective of stock market, the price-earning ratio of US market is more than 20 already these days. It is a little bit too high. This time, people expect the fund flow around chosen emerging markets which are friendly to global investors, especially American investors. If American people could make money from investment to those specific nations, then it should be encouraged. International trade and internationa finance should be judged from the benefit and cost of whole Ameircan people. Of course, we hope those American people without higher education could benefit from global trading system. It depends on Mr. Trump with his team to create some new ecosystems to reconnect those American poeople with the world or just in the United States alone.

  Poeple all around the world are against the idea that the United States closes the door to outsiders. We encourage American people to embrace the world and satisfy the need of different countries. We need new technology to create enough clean water for people to survive in India. We also need new technology to help people fighting with cancers in a much cheaper way. We need Mr. Trump with his team to help us fight with unfair things around the nation. We hate big country bully small countries. We hope Mr. Trump could rebuild a daily life-needs ecosystem in the United States to help people live on their own feet and survive without government long-term subsidy. 

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  This is a special edition to review the years of Obama's administration. From the policy we could know the possible future paths that Americans could choose. Please do not expect it could come out with some good ideas all the time. We do review many Obama's policies on finance.

  I really hope Mr. Trump would not regret on the result after the election. I hope he could stick with his belief to make America great again. To be honest, Mr. Obama's policy makes Mr. Trump to be even wealthier but not to the whole American people. Those people should be taken care from Mr. Trump's new policy. Please do not hurt those people and do not shatter their dream. Please give people hope instead of unreal fantasy.

Dodd-Frank Act

  Dodd-Frank Act is thought to be a replacement of Glass-Steagall Act. It intends to let big bank trim itself down by increasing the capital requirement burden. Unfortunately, financial technology brings more harm than good to the Dodd-Frank Act's intention. Big conglomerate banks do not want to break themselves into commercial banks and investment banks. Now, we even see the collapsing of Barclay and Deutsche Bank amid the self-destruction of investment bank business. How to revive the business of investment banking may not be an important issue. But how to stop the downsize of financial industry jobs may be the first priority to the United States.

  Wells Fargo uses a wrong way to expand. It forces its sales team members cross-selling customers again and again. American people are not that wealthy as twenty years ago. Cross-selling has its limitation. That is the reason why there are more than two million fake accounts produced inside Wells Fargo. We see the fraud and can not help it. It is obvious that Wells Frago's intention is not wrong under the condition that the economy still grows a lot and makes a lot of people richer. A stronger economy brings people with money in their pockets. So Wells Fargo could serve their financial needs in every way from mortage, credit card, investment and insurance. Unfortunately, the growth of American is not that stronger as we expect. Low GDP growth and wealth distribution problem bring severe wealth discrepancies among American people.

  I still remember my first finance course in the university. My finance teacher says that" Finance is a service to serve the industry in the first place. You should have some stronger industries, then we could talk about finance." Bank provides services to people who need those most. If people have no money in their pockets, how could you expect they need bank services? The story of Alibaba in China tells us that Alibaba provides a platform for people to buy and sell things. Then Alibaba provides financial service to sellers on the platform. Alibaba create a fund to help sellers funding their own business. The fund even opens to others to save money which makes the fund size bigger. The shipping merchandise may face the unsatisfaction of customers. Customer may ask for a refund and give back the merchandise. For the need, Alibaba cooperate with others to build an online insurance company to sell refund insurace to sellers on the platform. Then we see a big jump of those cheaper insurances selling. From above, we see an ecosystem is built from the need of people in the ecommerce business. We  further find that Ali-pay is rising for electronic wallet which make people don't have to bring money in daily life. Those services are not built by Chinese banks, but by a technology firm, Alibaba. It is a brand new ecosystem. It is what we call the financial technology (FinTech). It also satisfy people's financial need.

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