經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

Dear American people:

  Do not just make my prediction to be true. It is a pretty silly act. If you do so, then I have to give you my latest prediction. That is the Dow Jones will stand on 18,000 in three months. The Nasdaq will stand on 5,000 in the new year's eve. And the S&P 500 will be top on 2,100 in January, 2016. It is my latest prediction. And the 10 year US treasury yield will be near 2.35% in 6 months.

  I reallly hope my prediction is wrong all the time. But you seem to be convinced by what I write and said. For me, the most ridiculous thing is you make my prediction come true. Always be. You make me become some worshiped one. I should be an anchorman or someone, I guess. You really embarass me quite a lot. I really hope you should keep a concious mind with everything. The US economy is not bad. You have 2.5% percent GDP growth this year. I have to tell you the truth that we in Taiwan have negative GDP growth in the Q3 this year and our government statistics shows that Taiwan may only have no more than one percent GDP growth this year. Compared with Taiwan and other emerging markets, the US is much better. The US economy is on the right track. But US corporations should not sells bonds, buyback shares and pay higher dividends ONLY. Don't do such a silly money game again. American corporations should invest and hire people. I guess the Obama administration should think hard. How come those US corporations and rch people do not like Mr. Obama that much? It is a psychologic issue. It is a political issue. It is not an economic issue anymore.

  The US government has the responsible to make whole American people happy to give. The Obama administration needs to do more to make US corporations want to hire more American people. To keep up with the real situation, the US government needs to negotiate with the US congress. The most important thing is Mr. Obama should compromise with the real situation happened in the US and make the situation to be calmed down and got better.

  All those years, I stay with American people. I do not make a fortune from those predictions even I seems to be somebody's worship. I do not think money is everything. I truely hope the USA could get all right. And the time is no different, I know the P/E ratio of American stocks may be a little higher than used to be. But I have to remind all American people that there are no so many QEs in the old days. The higher P/E ratio is a have to be because billions of US dollar come home and stay. And the money has nowhere to go. Unless you want your bond yield stay at very low level and you want your yield of two year Treasury stay in the negative territory like those nations of Swizerland, France and Germany, I guess the only way to keep those money flow is to let the money stay in the stock market. The US sotck market with higher P/E ratio is an inevitable thing this time. It is natural in those days until the Fed starts to withdraw those money from the market.

  Calm down, American people. This time the US is in a better shape. Don't make rich people become even richer. They can park their money in the bond market and wait for the very moment to sell bond at a really good price. Then they may wait until the right time to have those stocks you sell fearfully at a good bargain. In the end, you just make yourself worse and make those ones richer. Don't do such a thing like that to make yourself even worse. Please follow my suggestion and calm down. Help each other have a job and keep on your daily living.

  May God bless the US.