經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

Dear American people:

  I have to urge you to compromise with the reality. It is the fact that the US needs other nations' help to grow. I have to remind Americans several points that all American people should know about the oil price and its related issues. (1)The US has its own shale oil to exploit. The lately year shows the higher oil price does benefit some states in the US but harm to other states. American people have to decide the future of those exploitation workers. (2) The US car industry is important for US job growth. The history shows the lower the oil price, the higher sales volume of fuel-driven cars. American poeple should also understand the sales of electric car made in the US also depends largely on higher oil price. (3)The trading relation with new friend Iran: The Iran has oil to trade with American people. If the oil price is too low, it may hurt Iran's ability to absorb goods made by Americans and the rest of world. But if the oil price is too high, it may also benefit the Russia. There is a tradeoff American people have to rebalance. (4)The danger of deflation under the strong US dollar: We know the wage growth does happen in the US. We expect it is not a sign of vicious inflation circle but a good sign for the economic growth. American people have to think hard if the too low oil price may drag American back to the path of deflation, especially in the situation of maybe-too-stronger US dollar.(5) From the history, we know that as the Fed increases the rate, the best industry benefits most is the technology sector and others who depend on commodities least. The lately technology improvement in the US is all about environmental friendly ones. A lower oil price may be an impediment to the further development of fuel-substitute technology. It is the issue American people have to think hard. It is also the reason why we do not see some big financial improvement about those PC-related companies lately which are once regarded as the frontier tech several years ago. American people use the electronic facility to communicate instead to compute. It is the reason why Apple's stock price is well above Microsoft lately. The PC-related industry is in lower growth stage, but those tech companies help people to communicate each other are still growing. Apple and Teslar are both great companies who depend on not-too-lower oil price to develop its latest new car technology. American people have to think hard if it is the time to give up the fuel-based economy and move on to something else. If so, what will those fuel-related US companies go??

  I do not have answers for all those phenomena, just provide them to American people. American people should compromise or have some rebalancing strategies for all those things. Lower oil price, stable economy, rate raising, the trade relation and others are all important for the US to grow in the future. It is American people have to face.