經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

Dear American Fellows:

  It is a cross road we face in this dynamic world. We have to decide several things before we invest our own money in those markets. The first question we have to ask ourselves is what the future we want to choose to live in. We want a well distributed world where people have some money in their pockets or a world with higher-paid specialists but a lot of people live in poor. If we want the first, then Americans should think hard about the tax code issue. We already know it will not happen because your congressmen and cogresswomen just pass the budget of next year. It does not state anything about the tax code change and it does not describe how to make a better system for all Americans. Those people in the congress think that the USA is OK with the first scenario and they do not want the country to change its course. Therefore, I take that as the consensus or some kind of agreements among all American people. Then we know the answer for the first question is that Americans want to choose a society with higher-paid specialists. You want people to have a decent life with great ability in his/her own field. Then we have to go to the second question, that is, what kind of financial environment Americans want to choose. The preconditions now are (1)the USA has a lot of national debt, (2)the USA has some important issues about its own unemployment rate, (3)the USA has some issues about its industrial renovation and its financial system reconsideration. The Dodd-Frank and Volcker Rule are both some guidelines for the future of USA, but it is not the guideline how American people can choose to live.

  For those preconditions, it seems that we need a weaker currency of US dollar at the first glance. But it may be a wrong conception when the world is fragile as the US dollar depreciates that much already. It is time that American people restart to consider use its currency to do something. The appreciating US dollar may help stabilize the financial situation of poor countries such as Argentina or other reserve-lack ones. American people can use their pruchasing power to help the world to grow at the time. And American people should encourage the Eorupean people to have a weaker currency when the US dollar is stablized and try to appreciate compared with British Pound and the Euro. We already know that some European countries have serious unemployment problem. A weaker Euro can easy their pains and promote their output, especially those south European nations who depend on its natural resources and well desinged product export. This is the way which American people can help the world- A appreciating US dollar. I know the lastest US election has the issue that a lot of American people hate its currency to go that low and they just do not want to invest abroad to take those unnecessary risks they think. Therefore, the strong US dollar policy has to be reconsidered NOW. The only think it concerns me is that the strong US dollar may hurt the profit of globalized US corporations when near two-third of their profits may come from abroad. So if the direction is what American people want, then those companies should prepare for the issue sooner rather than later. And the strong US dollar will come even if people do not like it so much because we already know that, in 2014, the US government will eliminate the extension of unemployment benefits and the US government cut will be in a larger scale compared with the cut in 2013. The most important thing is the US governemnt cuts the retirement pension of government employers. The latest US military soldiers will not get that much pension when they get reired compared with those ones in the age of 62 now. And the US employers face the same situations. We expect it would be cut steadily when the congress thinks that is the only way to reduce the future burdern of the USA. It shows the reason why the US dollar should appreciates instead of depreciates. In the near future, we expect the US greeback should flow back to the USA in a faster pace than people think and the US dollar should appreciate with respect to currencies of many countries.