經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

Dear American fellows:

  The problem American people face today can be concluded to three issues. The first one is the unemployment issue. We know it just gets better. The second issue is the house mortgage rate. We know it needs the wisdom of Fed officers to deal with. The third issue is the currency relative value. It will trigger the whole world to reallocate their money in all the financial markets as the US dollar appreciates or depreciates.

  We do expect the US government to trim down its debt in 2014 and go on further hereaftrer. We do expect the US corporations to have some decent profits in the near term. We do expect the unemployment rate of USA is getting smaller in 2014. All those expectations lead to a conclusion that the greenback should not depreciate with respect to a lot of other currencies. The appreciating US dollar does bring foreign investors hold even more US Treasuries and US MBS mortgage bonds, then we can expect it may bring down the long-term interest rate of USA. Also, the flowing back of greenback to the US can help the Fed to withdraw all the liquidity it creates from 2009 until now.

  But the risk behind still needs to be explored, those ones including the not-that-well American economy, the still-fragile US job market and the not-as-we-expect-to-grow US corporation profits. All those issues should be monitored carefully under the US authorities and also need to be further accomodated if something goes wrong.

  If there is a hope, then we should follow. If there is a light, then we should chase. If there is fear, then we should face. My Dear American fellows, it is a turning point for all Americans. We do expect there are 10 million American people get their jobs back at the end of 2014. We do expect the USA get its feet back on the growth track with GDP growth rate around 3.5% per year. People think that the goal may bring you truely happiness. May God bless you.