經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

寫在前面:這是從二月以來的財務筆記的最後一個部分,很高興我終於完成了這些整理與閱讀!!只是剩下的還是必須重複閱讀與練習!!我真的有點老了!!但是還是得勉力而為!!

Hello there:

   我們會先談Real Estate Investment Valuation,然後是從Income property常用的價值量測方法,以及若不從Income來看的另一種方法;最後就是Private Equity Valuation,而這其中又包含Venture Capital法與Buy-out法兩種!!

I.Valuing Real Estate Investment

 Step 1.先計算taxes payable

  Taxes = (Net Operating Income - depreciation - interest expense) * tax rate

 Step 2.計算Cash flows after tax(CFAT)

  CFAT = Net Operating Income - Debt Service (比如interest expense等等項目) - Taxes 

 Step 3.計算Equity Reversion after taxes (ERAT)

  ERAT = Selling price of Real Estate - selling costs - mortgage balance - taxes on sale

  其中的taxes on sale包含Capital gain tax與Recapture of depreciation tax(兩者的稅率不同!!)

  而mortgage balance則必須了解到底還剩下多少mortgage本金未繳交!!

 Step 4.求算NPV與IRR

 NPV

 = Present worth of cash flows - Equity investment

 = Sum of (j = 1,2,...n; ATCF(j)/[(1 + r)**j] + ATER/[(1 + r)**n] - I

  其中I為Equity cost of investment

  IRR則為NOV = 0時的數值r!!

II. Income property issues

a. Cap rate與Discount rate

  discount rate為r, cap rate為r - g, growth rate為g,

  Market Value

  = Net Operating Income/[r-g]

  = Net Operating Income/cap rate

 在此cap rate又稱為market capitalization rate

 這裡cap rate就代表著收益的門檻(threshold rate)

b.計算Capitalization rate的方式

(1) Market capitalization rate

  = Net operating Income/ Market Value of property 

Market Extraction Cap rate

  = Average cap rate collected from several similar comparable data sets

(2) Band-of-Investment Method (BOI)

 採用的是Weighted Average Cost of capital(WACC),其債務的部分就是房貸與其他準備支出,其equity的部分與一般相同!!

 Cap rate

 = mortgage weight * mortgage cost

   + equity weight * equity cost

 = mortgage weight * (mortgage interest cost + sinking fund factor cost)

   + equity weight * the required cash-on-cash return on equity capital 

(3) Built-Up Method (Gordon Gorwth-type Build Up)

  當我們不容易去得相對應的實際資料來進行cap rate的計算時,再考量到自身的特定性,採用類似prvate company常用的方式,Build-up method...

  Cap rate

  = 長天期政府pure discount bond的利率(扣除稅負上的好處)

   + Non-liquidity premium

   + Appreciation recapture premium

   + Risk premium

  其中 Recapture 計算的是raw land的appreciation與building的appreciation/depreciation!!

c. Estimating Market Value

(1)Direct Income Capitalization Method

 當我們收邊有Met operating income與correct cap rate的資料時,我們才能進行計算!!

 Market Value

 = Net Operating Income/Cap rate

(2)Gross Income Multiplier Approach 

當我們手邊缺乏可比較的Income generaing的地產資料時,我們採用銷售的資料來計算!!

Gross Income Multiplier(M)

 = Sales price of comparables/Gross Income of comparables

Market Value

 = Gross Income(自身) * Gross Income Multiplier(M)

III. Private Equity Valuation

  採用Venture Capital法的原因在於Cash flow是不可預期的,而其產品為新科技和過去並沒有明確市場的,而其價值在管理團隊-entrepreneurial management team,因此為了激勵團隊,主要的融資是透過股權或是可轉換證券而非債權,主因當然是並沒有非常多的tangible assets,主要的價值在於新的營運模式與新產品可能產生的價值,主要的價值還是在intangible assets上面!!採用Buyout的方法則是與Venture Capital法完全不同,其Cash flow是可以預期的,而產品是有明確市場的,因此採用債權融通做為主要融通的方式,而退場機制是可預期的!!

a. Venture Capital法

 Single Financing Round:

 (1)the NPV way:

  Step 1: POST = V/[(1+r)**t]

  Step 2: PRE = POST - I

  Step 3: F = I/POST

  Step 4: y = x * [F/(1 - F)]

   其中x為原始entrepreneur股東持股數目

   而y為後來VC進入投資後所持有的股數

  Step 5: the price per share

      p = I/y

 (2)the IRR way:

  Step 1: W = I * [(1+r)**t]

  Step 2: F = W/V

  Step 3: y = x[F/(1-F)]

   其中x為原始entrepreneur股東持股數目

   而y為後來VC進入投資後所持有的股數

  Step 4: the price per share

     p = I/y

  Step 5: POST = I/F

     or   POST = p * (x + y)

  Step 6: PRE = POST -I

     or   PRE = p * x

 Two Financing Rounds:

 Step 1:求算需要的interest rate, R1 and R2

 Step 2. POST(2) = V/(1+R2)

 Step 3. PRE(2) = POST(2) - I(2)

 Step 4. POST(1) = PRE(2)/[1+R(1)]

 Step 5. PRE(1) = POST(1) - I(1)

 Step 6. F(2) = I(2)/POST(2)

 Step 7. F(1) = I(1)/POST(1)

 Step 8. y(1) = x(1) * (F(1)/[1 - F(1)]) 

 Step 9. p(1) = I(1)/y(1)

 Step 10. y(2) =[x(1) + y(1)]  * (F(2)/[1- F(2)]) 

 Step 11. p(2) = I(2)/y(2)

b. Buy-out法

 Leverage Buyout's exit value

  = Investment cost + Earnings growth + Multiple expansion + Reduction on debt

 其他部份就請自行參閱書籍!!

c. Private Equity Fund 

   有些解釋名詞必須自行閱讀的: Hurdle rate, Target fund zone, Vintage, PIC, DPI,RVPI, TVPI, carried interest, NAV before distributions, NAV after distributions等等

 Carried interest = percentage given * (NAV before distributions - committed capital)

 NAV before distributions = previous year NAV after distribution + capital called down - management fee + operating results

 NAV after distributions = NAV before distributions - carried interest - distributions

 DPI = cumulative distributions/paid-in-capital

 RVPI = NAV after distributions /paid-in-capital

 Total Value to PIC(TVPI) = DPI + RVPI

 o.k.....That is all!!!