經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

Silk Road porgram

  Silk Road program is indeed an ambition to China and the whole world. If it works, bringing new trades and new idea across middle Asia and the rest of the world, China will be the first economy in this world. Now when the United States tries hard to bring the USA back to the old day, China does try hard to improve the living standard in a different way. Listen carefully, Mr Trump does nothing wrong but with a totally wrong perception to preserve the value of democracy. If the United States goes on in this way. it is not hard to imagine why the United States is puting itself in a path of self-destruction.

Th perservation of old day in the Unoted States

  Old days are gone, it never goes back. It is a sure thing that Mr. Trump tries hard to resist. The ganster of Mr. Trump does preserve their wealth and their own family future. Mr. Trump tries hard to abolish the Obamacare but not to fix the holes the Obamacare faces. The big hole of Obamacare faces is the guarantee of central government to the healthcare system. If the government does not provide funding and helping, the universal health care system can not be done. Even the healthcare system does get itself done, without a proper mechanism design, the lower premium will bring many treatments cannot be done in the hostipal. American people have to pay for those treamtments themselves but not through the coinsurance mechanism to lower the cost and the price.

  Yes, if the United States uses trade barrier to protect its steel industry, it may have some temporary effect but not for a longer term. Steel is the element for production. If the production is for the US's self need, then the steel industry may bring some benefit for American workers. But if the steel is used for the export production, then the overproduction may bring disaster to American workers. The steel comapny could not make itself survive in a limited demand society for a long time. The simple idea to protect American workers may be effective in a short term but not the long run, the self-protection plan may be a totally wrong idea for the competitiveness of US steel industry.

The implication of Silk Road program

  Silk Road program is to find many new markets for China-made products. From the viewpoint of economic and production scale, China tries hard to build Silk Road program is for its own good to export many cheaper goods made in China. When the middle Asia is full of China-made goods, those nations could not have their industry production ability anymore. They may rely heavily on China's export a long long time. Their basic industry could not get a chance to develop. Under such a circumstance, we could expect the US steel industry would not find itself a place in those middle Asia markets because China is taking advantage of the Silk Road program. When Chian launches its Silk Road program and provides billions of US dollars for free to those middle Asiam nations, China does find a big way to export its overproduction and control the destiny of those middle Asia countries. Those middle Asia countries exchange their oil and materials for the China-made infrastructure, but it also make itself hard to develop its own basic industry. The basic industry includes steel, clothes, white goods and other daily needs. On the one hand, China has larger export surplus with the United States. On the other hand, Chian use those trade surplus to develop its Silk Road program for its own good. It is a brilliant idea for the future of China.

  Trade is good for now to those middle Asia nations. In the long term, the Silk Road program is another plan of expansion for China-made goods exporting. From the standpoint of the United States, it means the US steel industry could not find their export opportunity to those middle Asian nations hereafter. The united States ignores the reality of the whole new world and forgets the US has lost its power and influence to those middle Asian nations. So does the Russia. China is emerging and having greater influence to those middle Asia nations gradually. China brings new influence and impact to those nations. The most important thing is China has its leverage power to those middle Asia nations which the US and Russia lack.

 What the United States should react to  Silk Road program

  The United States should not treat the Silk Road program as an exporpriation of China to those middle Asia nations, but as an expansion of China's power to those nations. To be honest, The US has no ground and place in those nations hereafter. The US has its own shale industry and doesn't need the oil of those middle Asia nations. But the United States still could have a plan to join the develoment of those middle Asian nations. To join rahter to protect is what The United States should react. The US tries hard to come back to South Eastern Asia lately. The US should think hard what's the implication of Silk Road prgram means.

  The United States could build many basic industries home again with higher cost, but the US should recognize the overproduction issue may emerge sooner or later in those industries again. The most important thing is the production cost could not be brought down because of higher living standard in the USA. Just like Japan and China which face the issue of overproduction in three decades lately even the United States finaly finds a way to lower the production cost. Many services could not be brought by foreigners because of their restriction of transportation and own nature. That is what American people should develop.

  We do want to see a greater success of Silk Road program because it bring new wealth to the whole world. But we are afraid of the wealth is largely distributed to China-realted corporations and China. We do expect the United States and Russia do some things to help the whole world share the profit created by Silk Road program.

Compare and contrast of China and the US do lately

  The US tries to bring those lower-valued goods production back home. On he contrary, China builds something different on its Silk Road program and finds a new way of export the overproduction of China-made goods. The US tries to protect its own industry in a strange way but ignores the limitation of its own need. China does have a greater plan for the overproduction and a way to grow. The US ignores new reality that the US has no leverage power to many middle Asia nations anymore. The US should try hard to rebuild its own coonection to those nations. Mr. Trump has wrong perception to the new reality and find no better ways to cope with those issues.

  Bring the US doolar home may be a good idea in the short run, but the US has to find many ways for the growth of US corporations in the longer term. We do need the US dollar to be the world currency. To join the development of many frontier emerging markets is a road that the US has to ride.