經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

寫在前面: 這個部分與後面的Equity Valuation有相當重要的關係,主因當然是在關注到購併這個議題時,如何評估被購併者的企業價值是我們有興趣的,因為有時被購併者並不一定是上市公司,用傳統的DDM法(absolute valuation approach)與Price-Multiple法(relative valuation approach)並不一定是適當的,而因為企業總有財務報表可供計算,因此採用FCFF與FCFE的Discounted Cash Flow Method(absolute valuation approach),從其資產所可能產生出來的現金收益來分析,就變成是重點!!但若是上市公司,那傳統的price-multiple法(relative valuation method)就能夠使用!!因為這個部分應該與Equity valuation一起來看,因此我們應該將Mergers and Acquisitions當成為Equity Valuation的應用!!

Hello there:

   傳統上面,Equity Valuation一直都是財務實務界研究的重心,不論是公開上市(public traded)還是私有(privately held)公司,都是Equity Valuation的研究重心!!而Mergers and Acquisitions就是非常實際的應用!!只是Mergers and Acquisitions有興趣的重心在target firm 的價值是多少,因此在relative valuation法中採用兩種price-to-multiple的應用,一個是Comparable company analysis,另一個是Comparable transaction analysis!!而absoulute valuation法則採用FCFF-WACC法,值得一提的是,absolute valuation與relative valuation的差異在於前者會計算出一個intrinsic value,再以市價和intrinsic value相對照來判斷價格是over-valuation或under-valuation!!

  一般進行M&A的時候會考量到兩點,一點是用Asset purchase或者是Stock purchase,另一點是去計算其中的synergy effect,V(AT)=V(Acquire)+V(Targer)+Synergy-Cost.....後者還關連到是採用horizontal merger, vertival merger與conglomerate merger等等,其中的價值增減還與所在景氣循環的時期有關!!

  另外一些定義是必須了解的...

(1)Pre-offer takeover defense: Poison pill,Poison put,states with restrictive takeover laws,staggered board,restricted voting rights,supermajority voting provision for merger,fair price amendment, golden parachutes

(2) Post-offer takeover denfense: Litigation, Greenmail,share repurchase,leveraged recapitalization, crown jewel defense,pac-man denfense,white knight defense, white squire defense....

(F)小結

  (i) absolute valuation

    FCFF

    =  Net Income

     + Interest expense*(1 - tax rate)

     + Change in deferred tax

     + depreciation 

     - Diff. Net working capital

     - Capital expenditure

    = EBIT * (1 - tax rate)

     + Non cash charges (Diff. deferred tax + depreciation)

     - Diff. Net working capital (NWCInv) 

     - FcInv

    So the target value is

 V = sum of (FCFF at each period discounted by the adjusted WACC)

 + FCFF(terminal year)

   * (1 + growth rate) / (adjusted WACC - growth rate)

   * discounted factor(terminal year's times) from the adjusted WACC

  (ii) relative valuation

   Use P/B, P/E, P/CF,P/S等,Comparative company analysis會另考量到takeover premium, Comparative transaction analysis則直接找相近者,利用上述price multiples進行價格計算的加總與平均,求取適當值!!