經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

Dear American people:

  The big difference among the US-QEs, the Japan-QEs and the China-QEs is that Americans become fully aware of the income inequality problem. American people know deep in their hearts that the inequality comes from the mismanagement and system-bugs of financial markets. That is what Americans have to face. Americans know quite well a good society should build on the trust and the fairness. Each one has an equal opportunity to chase one's dream. 

  We know that the Japan-QEs only protect the wealthy Japanese, the poor Japanese gets even more miserable life more than decades. The property price just goes down and down for two decades already. We finally see some hopes in some areas of Japan lately. It gives us a lesson which shows the income and wealth inequality issue is severe in Japan more than people realize. The workers in Japan could not get a decent life because their employers take too much share and the Japanese government just take too much burden of those bad investments and bad debts made by those wealth Japanese people. When managers or employers make some big mstakes, the Japanese government just uses the monetary policy to cover all those troubles without thinking. Japanese government does not dare to challenge or to punish those people who mess up with the society. And Japanese government does not take the income inequality seriously enough and try hard to harmonize the difference between the wealthy people and the poors. In the end, The Japan-QEs just protect the wealthy Japanese at the costs of the whole Japanese citizens in those years. It forces the Japan government to keep the interest rate and the yield of 10 year Japanese treasuries at a lower level more than two decades. The vicious circle happens all the time and the Japanese financial system is broken as Japanese people have not dare to challenge their own future and make a change. Japan is dying every day, just at a slower pace.

  It is nothing but a fact. Japan is dying, so is China. A country without the democracy needs the wise guy to run the country in an absolute means. But we know that no one can be that smart which may let the mainland China lose a lot of chances to grow. Market always needs to play its role on the innovative issues. The innovation needs some tolerance and some free air to breathe. In a country where all those innovations and developments is on the government hand, I do not know if it may create an even bigger waste and inefficiency on all those industries the government concerns. That is the reason why people worry about China. That is the reason why people think China is in title to move the earth now but it just can not and those kinds of thing will not be found in China.

  China is the nation which has a lot of savings. China should have the ability to help the world on the IT and industrial revolution. This kind of revolution should base on what Chinese people really need and want in their daily life. But what we learn from China is those needs and wants are directed by the government. The government always plays the role to tell people what they need and want. It should not happen in the 21 century. People should embrace the world by themselves. People should try hard to innovate daily life instead to wait others tell them what to do next. It will not bring the innovation to the world. So we do not see any innovation but just a lot of copycats in China which are well protected by the Chinese government. You can not see the Facebook in China, but you will find others. You can not use the google search, but you can use the other search engine. You can not log on Amazon, but you can log in Alibaba. That is the business model we see these days in China. How can you expect China will bring something new, no matter it is a totally new concept or a totally new design, to the world? We just see a lot of me-too services or products originated in other nations. And the orignal oversea ones just can not be imported or just be restricted to use in China.

  I am so sorry to say that kind of society can not sustain itself for a long time. China is not an empire anymore. It is a nation which belongs to all Chinese people. A place without democracy will not be a good place to live. What we concern is not that if China is democratic or not, but it is a nation with a lot of savings. History always tells us a contry with large savings should play the role for the world innovation because it can pay it a lot. Unfortunately, we do not see that happen in China. And we just can not see that happens in the USA now. The reason is simple, Americans are broken. What I mean here are those 80 percent ordinary American people. So we need American to keep on using the US-QEs until it solves the unemployment issue and lets all American people save a lot. Then we could depend on American people for the new innovation. It is pretty ironic, right? But that is the way it is. As China is still an underdeveloped nation, the catch-up-with-Jones effect does play its role. China can still perform those policies which has been implemented in America 50 or 60 years ago. The infrastructure, the media development, the communication, the electricity and clean water supply issue and the standard settings for its own people's healthy on foods and related ones are main drivers for the future growth of China. Of course, China will face an even higher unemployment issue, especially when China has seven million students graduate from colleges or universities each year hereafter. The Ch-QE is also a must-be-that-way policy when China faces the pressure of over-crowded population, not the population-dividend but a burden. It makes China not dare to stop using Ch-QEs now. The enormous savings of Chinese people do provide many opportunities on daily necessities. That is what the savings counts.

  For the issue of the Japan-QEs, the failure of Japan-QEs have many reasons. The first one is it didn't accomodate itself to adjust the profit sharing system of the whole society. In short, Japanese government was unreluctant to pursue an even larger tax-code reform which can provide a better life for all Japanese people. The second one is it didn't want to let the Japanese Yen depreciate with those unconventional monetary policies. Those monetary policies just can not reduce the cost of those implementations if the Yen does not depreciate accordingly. I still think the reason is not from American pressure but from the fear of value desvastation, especially for the wealthy Japanese people. It just shows the problem of profit sharing between the wealthy Japanese people and the poor again. The suddenly falling Yen may bring higher inflation occasionally. But it also triggers the wealth redistribution to the whole Japanese society. From the perspective of today, the second failure is tied with the third one. The third one is that Japan didn't give up its old-fashioned thinking about its financial market. The financial markets of USA is open to the whole world, anyone who can make a big fortune is welcomed in America. But it is not the case in Japan. Japanese government and Japanese people are innocent to think if they open the market, those profits will largely flow into others' pockets. Unfortunately, it is not the case. The open market can let the market participants all around the world to take the burden of the falling Yen. They share the burden of Yen depreciation. It is a protection instead a threat. The experience shows as one nation open its financial market to the whole world, the larger share of those profits goes back to local people. The wealth creation process could be learnt from local companies and local people. They can fully aware what it is like and just try to use the same strategy for their future life. This kind of effect is much larger than Japanese people can imagine. From the experince, when the USA opens its markets to Japan, we see a larger share of profits flow back to Americans. And the even better thing to American people is they can have a better product to use and get a better life. That the Japan is reluctant to open its financial market, especially when Japan has its big trouble on its own financial issues, is a miscomprehension to Japanese people. The reason is due to the mismanagement of Japanese government which is the same as China. The industrial and investment decision makings depends on the economic department of Japanese governement ONLY instead on hands of the whole Japanese people and the financial market. It brings the distortion. The Japanese is more conservative than we think. Japan is the nation which can not have an advanced society, especially on its financial industry. The more Japanese are reluctant to open its market to others, the more severe damage it makes to itself. Japan may lag far behind the world. The don't-want-to-change also deters the progress of Japan. The coordination of a mighty government just let Japan stay where they were several years until now. It just reminds us that we should not let the government tell us what to do but to tell the governement what we need. Those lessons are valuable to the whole world.