經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

Hello there:

  這兩天有一些在業內工作的人,問了我這個部份的問題,感覺上這個好好先生的所屬單位似乎並未將已見諸報章的很多想法做系統性的思考,簡單的說就是公司沒有好好培訓員工!!所以在這裡我再很仔細的跟大家從頭談起!!

  話說美國QE 1的使用背景,全球資產急速下跌,金融市場完全失去了流動性,所有人都將自身資產轉換成美國政府公債或是改持有美元,因此美元相對於其他貨幣大漲,而全球股市一片慘綠,連高收益的企業或是主權國家債券都下跌了近四成以上,因此美國Fed執行了第一次的QE,我們稱其為QE 1,進行買進自家政府債券與政府擔保的房地產抵押債券,替市場注入活水與資金!!因此造成後來全球股匯市的大漲與美元一直以來的持續走貶,但是美國聯儲制度跟其他國家不同的地方是,美元的印行必須有擔保品,要不就是黃金,要不就是美國自家的政府公債,因此美國一開始就是大幅發行了自家的政府公債,然後由央行印行鈔票購入自家財政部發行的公債,以致於後來Obama administration被敵對共和黨批評為敗家子,因為美國公債餘額已經從小布希總統之後的九兆增加到目前的十三兆美元左右!!這也是目前Obama administration不願意再進行新一輪的QE的原因,因為美國希望今年能夠將債務餘額從13兆減低為12兆左右!!

  隨著QE 1與QE 2之後,伴隨而來的是美元的持續弱勢,只是這個部份並沒有造成全球股市相對於美元是大漲的,只造成新興國家主權債券購買力的大增!!因為美元的貶值,對於美國的國際性企業來說,相對上海外的收益所產生出來的匯兌收益大增,外加美國持續寬鬆貨幣,因此企業發行的美元計價債券的發行利率隨著美國的零利率政策而受惠,企業融資成本大減,也造成目前投資等級的企業債券價格居高不下,因為海外收益的加持,使得美國企業滿手的美元,且企業獲利以美元計算都非常豐厚!!但實質購買力卻隨著弱勢美元而減少,爾後美國改採用OT,只買入自家的MBS,因此對全球股匯市的影響就大減了,相對上確實使得美國自身房地產融資成本減少,也減低美國房地產價格的持續下跌!!MBS的購買是對的,但前提是MBS價格必須止穩與美國空屋率必須持續的下跌,目前我們見到了美國的商用不動產REIT有因為經濟前景變佳而上漲,但美國經濟能否繼續變好,大家都在看!!而失業率在8.2%-8.3%左右,也顯示出美國就業參與率的提升,很多本來放棄找工作的人,現在都出來工作了!!

  但是新興國家的貨幣持續升值,對其自身的產業是弊多於利的,因為當初靠的就是低廉的人力成本而已!!除了原來通膨高且是原物料的出口國家,因為貨幣持續升值有降低自身過往過高通貨膨脹與降低過高自身政府以美元計算的債務,但對其他非原物料之外的出口,卻是有非常大的傷害!!因此新興市場股市在美元持續走軟,歐洲各國因為歐元升值太多,因此造成國家債務購買力大增,外加自身地產泡沫等因素,都使得新興國家對歐洲的出口呈現衰退!!因此新興市場的股價,相對於美股從2010年以來的上漲與止穩,反倒是大跌超過三成以上的!!

  新興市場既無美國高素質的研發人才,也沒有相對於美國的高科技產業,更沒有美國極為強大的物流產業,因此不論是那個方面的生產與運輸成本都是輸給美國的,唯一便宜的人力也因為匯率升值而喪失優勢,因此在美國QE 2甚至是OT1之後,新興國家出口都是衰退的,而中國的衰退,連帶對於全世界的原物料需求也都是大減的,因此也造成目前原物料除了食物之外的大跌!!這也是新興國家股市大跌的主因! 

Hello there:

  其實從去年這個時點八月左右,我就倡議美元匯率的升值了,但是我也知道從美國學者過往的研究,特別是Mr. Bernanke的研究總顯示美國以為日本失落這麼久的原因在於匯率貶值幅度不夠,但是美國人跟日本人的觀念不同,日本是有超額儲蓄的國家,日本的銀行在過往被以為強大的原因就在於銀行每天開門就是一堆日本人存錢進去,因此面臨到了自身貨幣價值與貨幣購買力必須得到保障的問題,而日本人也沒有信心自身的財富透過其他貨幣與金融市場能夠得到保存,因此日圓要大幅度的貶值,特別是在日本充滿著危機的當時,其實是不太可能的!!

  其實美國人也知道這一點,畢竟共同基金與投資這個概念,是從英國與美國發展出來的,因此美國在見到新興市場因為匯率升值太多已經很難有大幅度的發展時,自然不用大家說,會將資金撤回以美元為投資與計價的金融商品上面;這點不用別人說,美國人與全世界的聰明人都很清楚這一點!!這點與日本人處理方式固然不同,但感覺上比日本人聰明許多,原因當然是對於金融的掌握度夠高所致,日本相對上比較缺乏自信以及國家沒有一個真正懂得經濟的人來領導,因此沒有辦法不斷的跟百姓說,要如何如何一起來做,讓國家擺脫失去的自信心,總的來說日本的技術進步還是只停留在工業上面,關於社會其他服務產業與金融方面,日本是非常非常落後的國家!!但是美國早就放棄只談工業的技術進步,開始關心哪些產業能夠真正創造價值,因此美國是比較開放與科學的國家,這也是美元過往走貶,但未來不見得一定要走貶的原因!!

Hello there:

  AIG的股價已經來到了USD 30一股的水準,美國政府當初進場的平均成本價格大約是在每股28-29元左右的水準,這與上一次美國在97-98年間因為LTCM事件所執行的救市措施是極為雷同的,那就是當市場失去了信心與人們面臨到極大的不確定性,導致市場失靈的時候,美國政府有義務與責任維持市場的秩序與人們的信心,因此進場買進體質良好或是未來可以有非常大的改善體質的企業,GM是一例,Citi是一例,而AIG也是!!目前GM已經還了非常多錢給美國政府,Citi也是,而GM,Citi與AIG,美國政府都是在後來透過賣出手中的持股,慢慢讓市場自己去運作,政府並沒有要賺錢的意思,因此到了當初購買的名目成本價格就賣出,並沒有考量到通貨膨脹與美元實質購買力下跌的問題!!因為那是美國這波QE與OT救市必然的結果,在救市的過程中,透過匯率的貶值降低自身救市的成本!!

  當然可能希臘與西班牙還是沒能體會到這一點,所以才遲遲不肯放棄歐元,但那是必然的,因為必須透過匯率貶值來降低自身財政的負擔與救市成本,已達到拯救國家的效果!!

  美國的救市措施,很多人以為是免錢的,但其實不然,因為美國失掉了一千多萬人的工作機會,而這其中的痛苦還在,只是美元是國際貨幣,因此難免會遭人非議,但美國同時也是世界金融的中心,大多數的金融商品還是集中在美國,否則大家都沒錢賺了,這點是沒人能夠否認的!!只怪其他人不爭氣,沒有發展出相對應良善的金融市場,讓資金能夠有避風港與價值儲藏的去處,這點只能怪自己,怪不得美國人!!

Hello there:

  最近大家很有興趣的事情都放在美國到底會不會實行QE3!!其實不論是共和黨還是民主黨,美國人的共識已經是不會再用QE的方式來刺激經濟了!!誠如Mr. Buffet所言,美國各產業都已經在復甦的軌道當中,唯獨美國的房地產還在下跌,當然2012上半年房地產方面,只有商用不動產Reits漲幅超過一成以上,Shiller先生的地產指數顯示,美國的房地產指數還在持續下跌當中,這表示一般住宅方面的房價還是持續下跌,這裡面只說明了美國人的儲蓄不足!!但是美國的科技類股,特別是生技方面的產業在上半年都已經有超過30%以上的漲幅,非常非常驚人!!同樣地,美國的公用事業與運輸類的指數,上半年也都有一成以上的漲幅!!這裡面也說明了美國勢必得放棄去拯救房地產這個觀念,專心發展其他具有成長性的產業,只有這些產業繼續蓬勃發展,產生出相當的獲利,最後回饋給美國的消費者,透過消費者收入的增加,最後再回饋到房地產的部分,住宅型的房價才有回穩的可能性,這些那些已經是美國很清楚的未來走向了!!那就是放棄拯救房地產的觀念,只要不要再次大跌,大家還能用房地產來融通自身的財務調度就好!!因為房地產的下跌,只說明了美國的儲蓄不足,實在很難撐起這麼高價的房地產價格而已!!

  但是美國的儲蓄不足並非壞事,因為美國的消費相當程度上面能夠創造出新的工作機會出來,比如大家爭相換手機或平板,相對上面都需要通訊方面的產業配合,相對上不論是AT&T或其他電信業者,相對上都能夠得到大量的挹注,也必須提供足夠的服務,因此也會增加相對應的人力需求!!美國人放棄存死錢的觀念,轉而先消費互助,然後等到就業率穩定失業率下降到一定程度時,再回頭開始增加儲蓄的做法,充分展現美國人的民間智慧!!

  很多時候覺得Obama跟共和黨都是無比愚笨的,但美國人卻是無比聰明的,它們會利用自身失業給付的輪流申請,來保護自身的家庭,它們會利用美元的貶值來保護自身企業的獲利,他們會利用世界的變動來調整自己!!我想美國的復甦已在眼前,只是失業率的下降需要時間!!而房地產的復甦,那是美國人最後才需要關注的事情了!!

My Dear American Friends:

  Yes! American is facing the crossroad and no one seems to be the captain on the mothership!! I am not accusing that Mr. Obama is incompetent but it seems to be that way!! America has long to be seen as a free society and everyone in the society can do whatever he/she wants if it is by the law. Now America corporations see huge profits outside the states and are all reluctant to invest in the USA. Americans need a great coordinator to help the nation move on instead of staying in the hate or something else long ago. 

   Is it the fault of Obama or the reluctant acts of Bernanke??!! I think both accuses are wrong!! First of all, the wrongdoing of high-flied asset bubbles are still there, but the further falling is intolerable to the whole world. Especially those worldwide wealthy institutions, insurance companies, wealth individuals and others, they all ask for the QE1. They all can not tolerate the suddenly free falling MBSs and related financial products for a longer period of time such as 5 years or even longer. But the truth is it should be that way!!! As Mr. Greenspan says the free fall and the bottoms search are the only way for Americans to let big corporations invest in the USA AGAIN because they are so afraid of the further falling of antoher-round asset-bubble happening!!

  But Mr. Greenspan provides no recipes for the cook to have a new menu in town for the whole world customers. America is a wonderland just as Mr. Walt Disney says. It is a dream town and everyone can have it with hardworking and intelligent. Now it is shadowed by the property bubble. Amercans are dare to challenge the unjustice events but are afraid to admit that the technology of America nowaday is a little way behind than used to be. It is once a great nation which is full of new ideas and great new technology. Right now, there are so many problems we face in the world eagering new technologies but we can not find any help from Americans. Now the nation lacks the vision and coordination of leadership, especially for its politics. It lets itself in the endless disputes and arguments to each others. We do not see the leader shows and declares its commitment and most important of its actions to the innovations of new technology.

  I know for the Obama admistration, it is a hard decision to bring the country deficit down without to trim the government expenses further. It is also a big issue that the house price index still falls in a stready way of 1.5 percent a month. It just shows how vulnerable of US consumers. They do try to consume more, but it also has its big impact for their saving rates. They can  not have both - to get people employed instead not to have the house price fall further. Their salaries are not that much as used to be anymore, the living standard does fall quite well these days. If the only share of their money is used for consumption to support the economy, their house prices have to be support from the government. And the FED already did it!!

  My dear friends!! We count on you for several decades and still, a prosperous America is all we want it to be. We need your support and your kindness. Please try something new and never turning back!! American needs new incentive from the government to let its technology boom again. We do count on you!! May God bless us!!

My Dear American fellows:

  Just be patient and do not look back. Let bygone be bygone!! It is time to move on. The projected unemployment rate seems to be 7.5% around in a year from now on. So do not worry about the purchasing power or consumption power. The gevernment does not perform any stimulus plans is good for the economy as those acts are just temporary but your savings can be the only tool to save yourselves.

  Time is still plenty for you and the recently high-flied investment grade bond prices just show the fact that those big corporations are full of money in their jars or banking accounts. When the time will come to let the gene gets out of the bottle is still uncertain. But it just shows the resilient of those US corporations. I do not worry about the unemployment rate because it will go down someday somehow. The question today is when and what industry will get the benefit first.

  My dear American Fellows, the thing is just getting better though you have to admit the climate change does strike the States' land. It is a big problem for the whole human race because the States is the big food provider for the whole world. India will get stuck and even get worse if people get starved there. It is just happening and even getting worse now!! Right now in the technology sector, it seems that how to transform the sea water into the drinkable in a cheaper way becomes an even more important issue than before.

  The US has more pioneered technology and should help human race to have that technology. My dear American Fellows, do not forget that the States still has the more advanced technology in the world. And the wolrd is waitng for your guys in  sober. Move on, go ahead and no turning back!!It is time to show the wolrd that Americans are still the most optimistic people in the world. The world is getting better with American people on the stage.

Hello there:

  "歐元跟歐元區是不是真的走到了盡頭??"我想是近來大家最熱門的議題,如果歐元貶值到兌美元為一比一,哪些國家或地區受創最深??是中國大陸?是俄羅斯?還是那些近年來不斷增加歐元或歐元債券做為自身外匯準備的國家??或是那些增加歐元債券為自身資產的金融機構??歐元會不會貶值到比美元還要來的小很多,重新回到一開始發行時...1 Euro = 0.8 US Dollar??我想這些都是非常有可能的!!條件是...只要德國,法國或是義大利,有任何一個國家退出歐元區,不再使用歐元,那留下來的歐洲國家的黃金準備的加總就會小於美國,最終歐元比美元的幣值變小就指日可待了!!

  法國剛變天,社會主義者當權,很多人預期德國鐵娘子的日子或許還有不短的時間,別忘了M女士所屬政黨是以前的共產黨改制的,感覺上歐洲將越來越左傾了!!很可能那不是中國所樂見,因為中國正在進行"去左化"說;對於歐洲的政治變化,那可能也不是美國所樂見,因為這樣歐美民主國家相當程度上面的左右平衡就失衡了,西班牙左傾,只剩下英國是右傾的!!這個事情有趣的地方在於中國正在往右走的同時,西歐正在往左走,這倒是很讓人覺得莞爾的地方,可見貧窮的國家重視公平,比較富裕者反而重視發展,是不變的硬道理!!

  德國必須很仔細去思考到底德國失業率降低背後的意義是甚麼?是讓歐洲其他國家的失業率更高??是讓歐洲其他國家的產業更沒有競爭力??還是讓歐洲的人更能用廉價享受到很棒的服務與產品??我想我們都見到了這些,但是前兩項的傷害遠比最後一項的優點多太多了!!自由競爭或許相當程度上面,在過往還真的是因為匯率與關稅等自然保護而將歐洲各國阻隔起來!!而今...門檻消失,歐洲各國人人自危與德國的貿易與交往!!我們見到了德國人開玩笑的說,面對到訂單電子郵件就一路都說"Nein",而不是"Ya!!",也見到德國大量吸收歐洲的高知識分子前往德國工作,但那只是使得德國更強,並沒有平衡掉其他國家脆弱的產業競爭力,德國在歐洲跟中國之於美國是一樣的,或許都願意為了保住飯碗自己加班到深夜吧!!只是.....其他國家就慘了!!

  反觀美國一直都是自由開放與自由競爭的,那個地區失業率高,人們可以透過遷徙的方式來改變這一切,因此調整度比歐洲高很多,相對上因為重視公平,美國相對上是比較有資本主義精神的,但有時也被人以為過度自由了!!只是...the American way還是深植與我們的心中,而我們也都不自覺得美國化了!!

  歐洲跟美國目前最大的問題是房地產價格的泡沫化,而美國一度被以為比歐洲嚴重的原因,在於美國自由的金融市場將大部分的房地產爛債權都證券化了,只是因為美國的證券化市場是全球化的市場,所有全世界的有錢人與金融機構大概都或多或少的參與其中,因此大家都很不滿意美國的處理,但所有市場的價格不可能永無止境的上漲而沒有下跌,那是絕對不可能的事情,美國房地產在二十多年前也大跌過!!!反觀歐洲西班牙或是其他國家的房地產泡沫並沒有證券化的機制,因此沒有辦法將這些風險分散給全世界;因此只要美國證券化的債權被更嚴格的管理,整個證券化的流程被更嚴格的檢視,相對上美國這些證券化的商品所可能帶來的報酬,還是高於其所承擔的風險的,特別是很多證券化的商品已經被列為呆帳的此時!!從這裡也可見到金融市場自由化的魅力,因為自由到人人可參與,大家同時分享了利潤也同時承擔了風險,很多的風險相對上自然也被分散掉了!!

My Dear American fellows:

  The speech of Ron Paul about the Fed system is absolutely right. I totally agree with his viewpoint!! His speech touches people's inside fear though I know it does not convince you all and his idea does not prevail right now. But eventually it will...I think...!! American can not afford another QE anymore. It is nothing but a flaw idea about how the monetary policy can have and should do right now unless American households are full of money in their banking savings. Unfortunately, it is not. So I guess you have to be patient and try to save a little more money and wait a couple of years. I think the situation is just getting better. Go on without hestitate. Go on, I think it is a right path. And I think Ron Paul gives the same idea for this one. Go on...Do not look back!!

Hello there:

  我是蠻反對諸多國家搞小圈的,在自由關稅貿易協定的情境下,大家自由貿易就好,結果南朝鮮搞了一些甚麼甚麼FTA的鳥事情,而中國搞了與東協的鳥協議,讓台灣很難生存,這樣看來南朝鮮與中國還不是敵對的競爭對手,那是甚麼??我們不是國際組織的成員,因此本來就很難談FTA這些會觸及主權的議題,中國的霸道與蠻橫,我們一定要忍受??或者說還要忍受多久??總之,目前中國的優勢就是跟東協簽訂了這些,因此相對上面中國對東協的出口就能增加,而東協是近幾年來發展一直比較平穩的地區,相對上也比較有優勢!!南朝鮮則是利用自身與北朝鮮的衝突,所以就跟美國有FTA,在美國的刻意保護下,相當程度上面我們就比較吃虧了!!坦白說,不論是哪種場景,對我們都是不公平的,因為台灣到目前為止仍然無法加入國際組織,所以我們就很難有FTA之類的協定簽訂了!!而近來我們自己的研究發現,其實跟中國簽訂ECFA之後,台灣對中國的出口是大幅度衰退的,但中國反倒利用此一協定,將商品大量輸入台灣,很多不少都是本來台商的美歐出口轉成了對台灣的內銷!!說來我們也蠻可悲的,不是說因為我們沒有夠大的內需市場,所以才必須去中國嗎??結果現在反倒是讓中國生產的商品大量流向台灣??感覺上我們還真是不知道怎麼處理這些那些,只好寄人籬下!!

  很多人現在才發現原來當初美國的QE 1與QE 2對我們這麼重要!!當初大家都批評美國一味印鈔救自己,最後發現大部分的美元在美國找不到相關投資,最終流向海外,畢竟美元是國際貨幣,而資金本來就會流向報酬率高且比較有商機的地方;於是大多數的新興國家股債市都受惠了,相對上美元因為大增而走貶,只是如此一來相對上也傷害了新興國家的出口,因為大部分的原物料都因用美元計價而變貴許多,增加了太多的投資與炒作空間;而美國也沒有因為QEx而受惠,因為美國的舉措,本來是想降低自身通貨緊縮的可能,與其房地產價格能夠止穩,但事與願違,美國既無法處理可能面對的通貨緊縮,相對上也無法解決自身的失業率問題,主因就在於美國的空屋率太高太高了,因此那已不是所謂的QEx能夠解決,因此有志之士都以為(包含本人在內),只有降低房貸利率,讓這些"負資產者"能夠有多一點的消費力道,美國的失業率才能稍微降低,我們也確實見到了其成效,但也見到了其侷限性;美國的空屋實在太多,多到根本無法用貨幣政策消化掉所有的餘屋,除非是打掉與廢棄掉,因此目前就陷入了僵局當中,該如何設計機制讓這些本來有價值的房子被摧毀,讓供給量大幅降低,目前變成是非常棘手的問題!!我想很多怪美國進行QEx的人,現在反倒巴不得美國多進行幾次的QEx了,這跟當初大家反對美國霸道與不講理,想來也是非常讓人玩味的事情;如今美國不再QEx了,大家反倒罵美國自私自利??!!!我說過了,美國跟其他國家不同,鈔票是不能亂印的,必須要有黃金與公債發行的相對準備才行,因此多印鈔背後代表著美國債務越來越高,美國人是不會這麼笨的!!

  回頭看台灣本地的房地產,坦白說很多人也都以為目前很多地方真的是空屋率太高了,而且價格可能得降一半以上才有可能出現需求,目前本地的房地產還撐得住,說穿了真的是因為資金都匯聚此地,而美歐的金融市場不佳,造成資金必須停留在本地,外加我們的儲蓄率本來就很高,因此銀行有很多爛頭寸,所以有餘力進行放款的動作!!我想這些情況確實會持續一段時間;只是馬先生以為...大家不要亂買股票亂買房子的政策也是對的;因為唯有如此,這些資金才不會被高價房地產與股價給消耗殆盡,財富的分配才會平均一些!!否則最後財富被別人重分配了,自己還搞不清楚,沒有資金與沒有資訊的人在此時過度投資與消費,坦白說是一定倒大楣的!!!

Hello there:

  我想我的文章已經有一定的影響力了,大家都非常愛閱讀我的文章,很多時候我還真想設計一些大家能夠給我一個讚的甚麼!!我知道海外讀者是沒辦法讓我的Blog的閱讀人數增加的,因為他們的閱讀不計算在這裡面,所以我的計數器好像只有計算本地的讀者!!

  回頭談去年2011年七八月間我寫關於QE3與美國經濟的文章!我不知道該說是有幸還是不幸,因為這幾年下來我的預測準確度越來越高,我曾跟海外的閱聽者抱怨,能不能讓我的預測失準,可惜每每依照邏輯的推演,總是預測成真!!回頭談歐洲問題,老歐問我怎麼辦,很高興不論是德國還是歐洲地區的人,都聽到了我的預測,也都採取了相關的調整,德國開始調整自身的薪資結構,讓百姓多一點錢能夠生活,也稍稍降低自身在歐洲過於強大的產業競爭力!!而美國也順利地不再多想QE3或QExx這方面的事情了,主因當然是地球是圓的,美國過往總強調國際化,也因此美元的動作與相關舉措是絕對會影響到全球經濟的!!這是好也是不好的,好處當然是美國能利用美元影響全球,壞處是美國在自身的貨幣與經濟管理上面,就必須多考量到全球政經諸多的風險因子對美國的影響,我想老克(Mr. Bernanke)已經充分了解到這些地方了,也慢慢開始調整自身Fed的角色!!很高興美國繼續採用OTx,因為這個舉措對美國境內的影響是非常大的,而其對國際的影響自然小很多,這是非常對的做法!!

  回頭談新興市場,新興市場的問題其實在於匯率,過往十多年以來,很多國家的貨幣早已過度升值了,比如巴西的里爾,已經過度升值到傷害了巴西自身的經濟條件,而中國人民幣升值幅度太小,相對上傷害了中國消費全球產品的胃容量;本來平衡的世界當中就是儲蓄多的國家多消費一點,讓儲蓄少的國家有能力儲蓄,爾後再照這樣的原則輪迴下去,只是很多時候大家彼此不信任,造成有的國家過度儲蓄,以至於其他國家沒有辦法儲蓄,最後是大家都沒水喝而渴死了!!我想早在幾個月前,我用了Rubin先生的循環說,已經將這些解釋得很清楚了!!相對上新興市場的競爭力本來就不會因為匯率升值能有得到改善的機會,主因當然是這些國家都沒辦法像德國或美國一般善用自身的金融市場與相對金融工具來進行自身的調整;總之各方面的條件都是不夠好的,整個國家的經營也沒有如同美國那麼科學,一個國家的興衰,說來說去還是要依賴科學化的評估與思考才是!!

My Dear American Fellows:

  It is the time to act but not to setback anymore. Make up your mind what kind of the world you want to have and what kind of path you wan to walk through. All is up to you but no one else. We need a better world and the one can make a huge contribution is Americans. You have changed the world as your wish. A lot of countries use US dollars as their reserves and their currencies are all the shadow derivatives of US dollars in some sense unless they have huge Gold reserves or something else. So if the US dollar loses its purchasing power or if we can not count on US consumers to buy or absorb the world productions, it is sure a disaster for the developing world. On the other hand, if US dollar goes to the notorious non-democratic nations, how can we resolve or stop them using the greenback to fight against American fellows? It is also a big issue. Now as Mr. Bernanke has mentioned in his own masterpiece for the solution to the Japan's contraction or deflation, the only way seems to have a depreciating currency and Americans should reduce its burden for the world products consumption but try to increase the output of its own products. Try to balance its own balance sheet through the trade, especially export instead of import. But it comes to the other issue that how those countries depend on American consumers can do. How do we survive without American consumption?? I have no idea and I am afraid that I will not have one for my lifetime.

  So what is the compromise between those issues? Is the Dodd-Frank act really that good and can be used to resolve all those questions all at once. Or we should use the method of divide-and-conquer to solve it little by little instead of that much and that profound. It is a question about the leadership and decision making. I guess as an analyst, I have no rights to answer that.

  *unfinished

My Dear Amerian Fellows:

  Now it is time for you to decide what the future is, but with those professonal guys' suggestions. The benefit of capitalism, I mean the better under-sceutinied capitalism, is it brings the fairness and make those one with creativity and intelligent to have their better living standards. It is nothing wrong to have those qualities for a better society. The reason we need the Dodd-Frank Act right now IS for those secret or not-public counterparties' financial transactions, like CDS or other credit derivatives. We are not sure if those transactions are made by purpose or just the unlucky decision making. So we need a transaction platform to let those information come out under the spotlight. Thus, everyone can make their own decisions to adjust themselves. It is the reason why Americans withdraw 2 to 3 billion US Dollars from their mutual funds or ETFs in the first quarter of 2012. It just shows how fragile of world financial markets and how vulnerable of the world. People lose their faith on those transaction guys and hedge funders, even those financial institutions like J.P. Morgan Chase, Deutsche Bank or Goldman Sachs. It shows people want a more scrutinized world with a better information revelation.

  Back to the issue that if the Dodd-Frank Act does not work well, what kind of disaters we may face. I think that Mr. Bernanke knows it better because he is the prefessional guy for the Japan's issue. The first sympton is we have the ultra-low bond yield that people may face the NEGATIVE real interest rate and it still CAN NOT make people to loan or borrow and create their own new business. I think American right now has the problem. The second sympton is we have lost our faith about the world and make people no interest to invest in the financial market anymore, especially stocks and those ones with higher volatilities. It makes people no dare to challenge their own lives and have faith in this changing world. It is bad for the capitalism as the well-run capitalism shows its merit on the value creation and innovations. I guess we face the issue right now, so the States has higher unemployment right now. It is not the more losing monetary policy can react or solve. I still think America is not in the distress time but in a faith-losing time. You lost your faith on the financial institutions and your governance on all those related issues. No one can help you unless you can rebuild it. Many people think that the Dodd-Frank act is a good one for the issue. But it will bring the under-table war on all financial markets around the world.

My dear American Fellows:

  It is the time we need you to think through the Dodd-Frank Act Again. The issue here still focus on what other financial institutions can do or can not compared to the U.S. financial institutions. Of course, here I mean are the DB, the BNP Paribas and other giant financial institutions. If the J.P. Morgan Chase loses its free will and if the Goldman Sachs loses its free will to join the financial market with their own decision makings, DOES AMERICANS LOSE ITS EDGE on those financial transactions or financial innovations?? It is based on the FACT if those financial transaction is necessary or just make new financial wealth redistribution ONLY!! I have to remind you those words about Financial Innovation is created from those fellows of yours. Now the world is a little disturbing. The reason behind is quite obvious that those hedge funders and those financial trasaction movers can not endure the Dodd-Frank Act and think it will be the disaster for them to survive. BUT as you know already, that is the reason why we need the Dodd-Frank Act. On the one hand, we want no more secret counterparties' transactions that are not known by us in the first place anymore. We want the information to be known through the public transaction. It means that all those transactions should go through the CLEARING HOUSEs. On the other hand, we have to protect those ones with Mosaic rule on their heads because they have the EDGE is through the diligent hard working research instead of the collusion with each other. It seems that we can not have both ways right now UNLESS AMERICAN can solve the problem or come out other trasaction rules to protect both ways for those modern daily financial transactions.

  We can not punish those innocent guys just because they have the edge or the ability to think through the changing of the world and adjust themselves a little bit quicker. We also can not tolerate those ones try to move the world to their BAD WISHES just because they want more MONEY!! They can not have it in a better way, so they decide to be the robbery or the thief. As you know, the capitalism always protects those ones with better ability to survive and ALWAY PROTECT THOSE ONEs CAN ADJUST THEMSELVES in the changing world. Here we have another issue that if the world can not change that fast anymore, if we do not want to change that fast anymore, can we make those guys distinguishable?? If we can, then the world will be a safer place. If we can not, then the only way points to the new act or new rules like the Dodd-Frank Act or the Volcker's rule!! So my dear American fellows, it is a coordinate world. If you want to let those guys to be DISTINGUISHABLE, then you shoud ask those financial guys in British, in France, and also in GERMANY to coordinate their rules with the Dodd-Frank Act or the Volcker's rule. MAKE THEM ALL COMPLY WITH the DODD-FRANK act NOW and maybe forever until it changes!!

My Dear Americans Friends:

   Everyone is talking about the Quantitative Easing these days. But as we know the largely withdrawn of mtutal funds lately just shows that the America does not short of liquidity but the IDEA to make a living!! Now you have to confess the truth that Uncle Sam has no complete production supply chain anymore, no matter what kind of industries like electronic products or other cheaper but durable products. American no longer has the product that is "Made in the USA" except softwares or other higher-valued products. You can not afford the factory to hire a lot of people because you have a more strict law on pension and other benefits that a decent worker should have. It is totally different story now than many decades ago. From Japan's experience, they try to depreciate their currency and move their factories back to Japan. But it does not work well even they try hard. People may blame the reason is that the Japanese yuan does not depreciate much to induce those factories back. But you have to consider the "local production-local consumption" seems to be a reality and become the role-model for the "just-in-time" prodction.

  The higher oil price compared to the old day's 20-30 US dollar one barrel COMES and the higher commodity price the world faces have become the norm. China tries to rewrite the new consumption model and let the intelligent electronic products sell at as lower price as possible. We have saw the Huawei tries to launch the cellphone with Andriod system with the price as low as 100 U.S. dollar each piece. Poor countries has realized that they can no longer let their people increase their salaries that much if Americans stop shopping and refuse to pay higher prices for those products. Therefore if you want to make a fortune, the only way for those employer of poor nations is try to lower those products' prices and make a cheaper one for everyone in their own countries.

  It makes "the production in the U.S.A." to be an even worse idea right now. But do not forget, you have your own demand for cars, cellphones and daily consumer-need products. It all can try to produce in the States if it is not that expensive (to produce in the U.S.A.). But now, it seems not to be a good idea. As Chinese people are the most hard working men and women on the planet, they would work hard and love to die in the heart attack rather to choose to live in hunger. China has no such a good social welfare network which can help those ones without jobs. So people live like ANTs and have to work hard to prevent him/herself live in poor.

  So the question goes back to "when will Americans create another industry that can let a lot of Americans get their jobs and live? and in what form??" I guess there are some directions you may have.. (1) the product can only be produced in the States and can only be consumed by Americans; (2) the product has the unique characteristic that only Americans love to pay a big buck; (3) Only American can produce those products that no other nations can do it or try to copy in a cheaper way....

  People may think the answer is SPORT!! To be honest, all those requirements seems to point to "Building a national health-care system".  I have to confess that our national health-care system largerly reduces the payments to doctors and nurses. The most important thing you shoud know is the system depends on a more heavily tax-rate society to support it, so ours will get bankrupt some days (in not far away future). If you want to do it, I guess there is no one you can follow. Just try to do it through "learning by doing"!!

My Dear American friends:

  I know you are so nervous to know if there is another round of Quantitative Easing, I guess the answer is definitely YES!! But in what form is the crucial question, I still think that "the operation twist" is a better one.

  The reasons are due to (1)The house market needs more air and powers to drive it back to the normal path. If the FED can gives the house market several hands, it may let people believe the market is finally stable and not in the down-trend track anymore!! (2)If you use the quantitative easing like the QE 1, I guess it is not proper when we all know that the market goes down lately is due to the large redemptions of mutual funds. American people are worry that the first qurter,2012 up maybe the signal of the consequent down-trend quarters. The behavioral finance plays its role again!! There is no liquidity shortage of financial market except the faith, and the basic problem for the States is that too less innovations can draw the market's eyeballs. You need more innovations to let people believe there are many new industries to come and everyone can become better off from the new business. Maybe the space travel or new car models can have the similar impacts as the new innovation. (3)We should give the house market a big hand because it has so many related businesses around it. It can help people raise their families. It is much more important than decades ago for Americans. 

Hello there:

  It really makes people wonder if it is a good time for QE3. I guess it is not!! The first reason is , for the stock market, the second quarter is usually the worst quarter of the year. The case is much worse as the first quarter of 2012 is the best quarter from 2011. The second reason is the commodity price, except the food, is still falling. It seems that it is in the middle term of free-falling. We should wait as everyone has accumulated enough U.S. dollars. The third reason is we see most currencies around the world is weaker compared to the greenback. It is a good news which shows that most sophisticated investors treat the greenback and U.S. government bonds as the safe haven and the almost riskless asset in the world. It just shows how people around the world are confident that the U.S. will be back!! We should wait those forces get together and wait for the final moment to break the natural barrier of 8 percent unemployment rate of U.S. I guess that is the time for QE3!!

Hello there:

  The latest new in those days are the hedging loss of J.P. Morgan's trading. You know, for me, the financial risk management is  J.P. Morgan. In old days, people from the Goldman Sachs are proud to say that "We are Goldman!!" And I think people from J.P. Morgan are proud to say that "We are the (financial) Risk manager!!" The first class, a decade ago, I learn from the financial risk management is the lecture notes developed by J.P. Morgan. J.P. Morgan is in title of the best trainer of risk manager in old days. How come they lose those money?? They are not hurt from the crisis of subprime mortgage event. They are not hurt from a lot of financial disasters. How come they lose this time?? I  do not know, I just know even I learn and pass "the international certificate of baking risk and regulation" lately, this series of lecture notes are written by the professor who works for J.P. Morgan more than decades. For Me, J.P. Morgan is the TITLE of Financial Risk Management!!

  I know the latest trend is when people try to hedge their financial risks, they do use derivatives. Even Mr. Buffet had lost millions of dollars for his hedge. Face the music, credit derivatives is no one can price!! It means that no one really knows the price of those products these days. Just like in the 80's, no one knows some American options product really worths, especially in the day of non-liquidity and when European faces such a big trouble now. A lot of European banks once join the credit derivatives market have to keep a lot of U.S. dollars for the rainy days. So the problem seems to be the market timing of hedging instead of the complication of those credit derivatives. Because they are lack of liquidity now and no one knows the true price anymore in those days. How come J.P. Morgan does not stop those tradings in the dire moment, especially when YOU KNOW that YOUR ONCE COUNTERPARTIES WILL NOT JOIN THIS GAME RIGHT NOW?? It is a market without SUFFICIENT LIQUIDITY!! So the price is turbulent and uncertain!! 

  Everyone admits that even the sophisticated traders do not know the real worth of those products in these days, so it comes out to a question that how can they trade those products when they do not know their doing in the first place?? I guess it is time for Americans to think HARDER if those hedges are proper. Or if there will be some, standard and easy to have agreements for both traders, credit products in the market for those credit risks to be hedged one day?? I guess it is a hard question just as the CDS causes such a big loss for AIG in 2008. To be honest, I guess there is no one can have the answer even those Nobel prize winners in Physics or Economics. BUT....After all, J.P. Morgan Chase is a bank which receives a lot of banking savings from ordinary American people. Their savings should be PROTECTED instead of wasting on some strange hedgings!!

Hello there:

  It is a bloody hell good news to hear that the States has finally gets its fiscal discipline, U.S. finally gets budget surplus in April,2012. We know that in those years, Obama administration tried hard to cut the unnecessary jobs and unnecessary workforces of federal government. It also cut  jobs of U.S. Post Office further as Americans use the internet to communicate even more. It is a transition. It is a triumph of the adjusted capitalism, the government should play the role of monitoring and supervising to keep the market in the right track.

  It is a bloody hell good news!! Congradulation to Americans. If the trend continues, we will see the greenback backs to its appreciation track some days sooner rather than later.

To American friends:

  I guess I have to tell you to close it down!! Or just keep away from our democratic process, you will see those happened in Taiwan, in the near future. Taiwan belongs to the Taiwaness. I guess that is nothing wrong but a sure thing !! Do not interrupt our choices and our decisions for our own future. Or you are NOT WELCOMED anymore !!

My Dear American Friends:

   It is nothing wrong that Mr. Bernanke had done and is doing right now. It just shows that Mr. Bernanke is extending the maximum power that FED can do for this situation and some different scenarios we will face. Mr. Bernanke is with pretty clear mind that the FED should stick with the principle of "Let the market be as stable as possible, and let the inflation be contained and controlled in some range". It is nothing wrong that the Magician Bernanke has made a big difference to the States. Also, it just shows how knowledgeable Mr. Bernanke has and can deal with this kind of situation with so many tools on hands. U.S. dollar is now in the historical low level we have ever seen more than two decades. But your enterprise, especially those larger ones have no intent to move factories back to the States. It just shows two things, one is that they do not  trust the working ability that Americans' worker have, the other may be due to higher salary and higher living standard (including the pension burden and environmental issue) the States has. The oursourcing has its great benefit as it just pay down those costs in one time, you can ask those factories work hard just one time and leave the order to others next time. It is always the big issue that you do not have to pay those environmental or other costs for the greater benefit of your new clothes, toys, computers and other electronics. That is the big issue you have to face. I guess from the point of curency, U.S. dollar is much cheaper, but your structural problem can not let the factories' jobs back to the States (even you have the lower currency rate right now). It is the big problem you have to face!! That is nothing Mr. Bernanke can do as he extends the monetary policy to the extreme already!! And there is no deflation problem the States has, it is wrong to say that those commodity prices falling is the sign or the signal of Deflation (or even the consequence of deflation). It just shows that their higher prices are not sustainable anymore!!