經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

My Dear American people:

  It is the golden moment to see China finally wake up from its long-unawaken punch party. And it is the golden moment for you to help China to be a more civilized nation. It is time for Americans for find something new to trade with China even though they seems not to respect the intellectual property rights. I still think China has to change. China will face the same issue that more underdeveloped nations will try to copy the China's everything after several years to come. It is inevitable and no one can stop it.

  China lately finally realize it has to trim down its financial system, especially those ones with terrible record to inflate everything from house to precious herb. It is time to wake up China that it just can not get used to it anymore.

  I have to remind you that China is a society of communism. Everything people have can be taken back to the state if the government thinks that is right. In China, might is right. To be honest, I am not totally disagreed with it since there are always something unthinkable happening in China that make people suffer. Maybe the redistribution is good for them. Lately, everyone in China seems to be the slave of something, from house, precious metal, coal mines and important necessities. It does not raise their living standard but let them be the slave of their souls. Everyone in China wants to be richer but gets even worse than used to be. They take too much burden on house rents and other unnecessaries. It has to be solved and they just have no time to wait.

My Dear American people:

  Please do not say this time is different because it is not!! Please remeber what happens in those horrible years when both stock and bond go down. It takes several years to rebuild the faith. And it takes several years to have those markets on the right track. I know the punch party is over and everyone is still in drunk. But you have to have a crystally clear mind as this time will not be different. I have to say again that the emerging markets are in the danger of deflation even though we see their sovereign bonds go down. The U.S.A. may be in the position of disinflation if you do not help theose Americans with heavily debts. The market may not go up but to go down more than we know. If you do not try to solve and answer the market asking, the situation may get even worse. Everyone is afraid of the deflation may happen in the States if all of Americans just lose their faith NOW. It should be remined that those kind of horrible ghost stories are just to come AGAIN.

My Dear American people:

  This time is serious as we see the global markets crash down. This time, all of us have to face the consequence that even American markets can not get away from the disaster. I really worry about the contagion effect and do worry about it just happen on all of us. I think Americans should feel sorry about Mr. Bernanke as he is not aged but will be unemployed in six months. He just can not go back to Princeton when the teaching job market is tight. Mr Bernanke still has the mortgage to pay and still has to take responsible for his family. I think the U.S.A. is getting better under those sound monetary policies and Mr. Bernanke does a good job. He should not be disposed this time when the U.S.A. still need the one to help making sound decision about its monetary policy. I think others who are eager to replace Mr. Bernanke should abandon this kind of thought. And Mr. Bernanke should not be unemployed this time when he just make a big contribution to the economy of world.It is ironic,you know. When the one helps us to get through, but everyone turn their back on him!!  

  Mr. Bernanke makes big contributions to the economy of the whole world, not just the U.S.A. He does take those credits of those years in the U.S.A. And Mr. Obama should not dispose him like used tissue. Mr. Obama should show some respects to Mr. Bernanke and let him stay in the Fed for another years. The US-rescue job has not ended yet and there are a lot of things have to be done. Mr Obama should not consider others to replace Mr. Bernanke's position.

  To lay off Mr. Bernanke is a cold blood thing I have ever seen. To be honest, it is unthinkable. Let Mr Bernanke stay in the Fed is important. That is what my sincerely suggestion and that is the first priority Mr. Obama should do. The States is still in a fragile situation and the Fed policy should not be changed that much to let people fear. To let Mr. Bernanke stay in the Fed seems to be a better choice that Mr. Obama has to make. Those ones with mortgages to pay in the States should be treasured rather to be abandoned.

My Dear American fellows:

  I do not suggest to stop pruchasing bond even I love to see what happens. But I guess right now the Fed should do is to let the operation twist(OT) go all over again, to exchange the longer-term US treasuries with the short-term ones. The idea behind is to lower the mortgage burden of US homeowners and it can let them to shop, to invest and to have a good time. The idea behind is to let the US society to have more money flowing between people in the States and everyone can get some benefits. My dear American people, now the policy of "beggar your neighbor" is not quite good these days as you still have higher unemployment rate and lower saving rate. The only way to do is to distinguish good ones from bad ones and persuade people to invest in those nations that are more American-like. I know people here will be afraid to hear that because we think we can not survive in the circumstance of appreciating currency. People in our own nations love to see the depreciation of our own currency as the South Korean Won depreciates a lot these days. That is the extra favor I need you to give us. Because we just can not help US and against Korean Won at the same time. If you do realize those conflicts between TWN and KRE, I guess you will understand how come we can not appreciate our own currency this time.

  I still think the Fed should stop buying bonds but exchange them again. The goal here is to let the mortgage rate to be accomodated in some tolerable range. Until the economy just gets even better, then the Fed should stop doing those kind of things like QEs or OTs anymore. Or you should come out with some new ideas to help those homeowners. I think you have to understand people can buy the house shows they have some consumption abilities. They should be treasured instead of be abandoned.

  The risk behind OT seems to be the pressure of defaltion, but as you know the commodity prices just go down and down. It is inevitable as China just want to change their ways of living from the fact that the USA and the advanced European nations just can not absorb too much cheaper products anymore. So the deflation pressure will happen in the emerging markets but it gets little chance to happen in the States. The reason behind is you have bigger service corporations and industries. And to lower the mortgage rate is all you need to do NOW. To accomodate the mortgage rate in some range should be the first priority of the Fed.

My Dear American fellow:

  It is a crossroad you have to face these days. To be honest, I am a little happy to see it that way as those ones with big tongue used to say the bond purchasing is a bad idea for emerging markets and the US. But the reality is the opposite. It is good for them. And it is good also for American people somehow. Americans already know their roles in the world but there are a lot of nations seems not to know it quite well. China need some new industries for their daily life, especially some totally new concepts about the city building and how people get together and live together. A whole new way to survive is what China needs right now. China should not follow the path of US and Western European nations anymore as the earth resources just can not cope with it. China needs a new way of living or it will face the shortage of water and electricity. They will face the shortage of portein or other necessity every year in the future. At the time, people in China will face the issue that poeple has RMB but just can not buy enough high quality food, water and necessities. So their ways of living need a big change. So is yours, I guess. The financial industry should provide more jobs to your own people, those jobs should be higher paid and those jobs should be connected with people who can speak local language they invest or care about. It is a big issue for Americans. You should speak multi-language these days instead of English any more.

 Now you face the same issue used to be that emerging markets just can not be run that smooth as you think in the old days Again. There are always some discrepancies or ideas conflict between money providers and investing objects. Tho only way to let those disasters not to happen again and again is to let those markets be equipped with more buffers like well-run derivatives market and more stable financial players like good government and governance. But as you know, there is little democracy in the South-Eastern Asia, those nations still do not know what democracy is, including Phillipine, Thailand, My... Those nations still have no idea that good democracy is the only way to bring a good financial society for people to live in. So you just have to take risk more than you know these days. But these days are totally different to the USA right now. You do not have lower unemployment rate as used to be, you do not have that nuch money as used to be, so the only way is try to lower your own currencies after 2009. Now it has its limit as those nations you used to invest has fiscal indiscipline problem, especially India, Brazil, South Africa, Russia and even China. So we see the depreciation of those nations except China. The only way Americans can do is to help them to be more American-like. So they can have well-run financial markets as yours. If they do, they can have that kind of financial market to store value. But all those behind is the democracy. True democracy is what they are lack of. I still think American these days also lack the true democracy as you have bigger discrepancy between the rich and the poor more than ordinary American people know and are aware of. It is a big issue you have to challenge.

My Dear American people:

  I know what it likes to lose his/her own job and stay at home watching TV. But you have to be patient to all of this. The States is just healing itself NOW with its own better mechanism of free society. Be patient!! Do your best and leave the rest to God. Believe in that the States is still a self-healing society that no one can see from the rest of world.

  This time is not different as used to be!! The U.S. stock market has to move on because there are still a lot of people losing their jobs. The service industries of the States still need to be expanded. I am totally awared of the thing people often talk about. The thing about the S&P 500 and other important indices already reach a much higher levels than used to be NOW. But you have to be fully reminded AGAIN that the U.S. dollar may need to be depreciated even more than we thought. The States has piled up a lot of debts to promote the world run smooth, to help people have their decend lives, and to make a better world. Everyone knows that the QE policy does help the world to be a better place. Our livings also depend on the QE policy of the USA somehow. That is nobody can deny. I know a lot of wealthy people do worry about the liquidity issue of QE, but the ultimate goal of QE has not been fulfilled YET. The goal is to let the unemployment rate of USA go down to the threshold of 6.5%. It is not an easy job. The States may need some lower wage jobs to get it done. The States may need a little bit lower standard of living than used to be - a cheaper life and a cheaper way to live in the USA. But those jobs are so hard to find and no one want to take that kind of lower wage jobs in the States. This is an issue that you have to worry about!

  The States may need to lower its living standard to have the 6.5% unemployment rate done is the common knowledge to scholars. But it is just so hard to get it. If you really want to help American people to save, to invest, and to have a better life. I do not think Mr. Paulson did a totally wrong thing when he tries to lower the housing price of USA and let American people pay less to have a house. But what he does seems to contradict to his original idea as the lower housing price just hurt people with higher mortages burden (than their house prices). The basic question now seems to go to an unrealistic one: Can we waive some part of those mortgages? I know we can not. But you do find something alternative.

  Right now, everyone knows that the part of success of QE depends lots on those people to pay their higher mortages, compared to their house prices, to support the funding of government and to reduce the deficit of America. The reason behind is the Fannie Mae and the Freddie Mac belong to the Federal government NOW and their larger benefits are used to reduce the debt level of America. If you are not so afraid of it, then we should expect those things to go on until everyone gets a decend job. That is the reason why the QE should just  move on and on until the goal of 6.5% umemployment rate is fulfilled. Those families who get the benefit of lower interest rate environment most are also the ones to give back to the U.S. society most. They get a lower mortgages to pay for and have some rooms to save and invest. Their mortgages payment flow back to the society as the reduction of American government debt. It is not a vicious circle but a good one.

  American people show their true nature when they face such a big pain and do stick together to help each other. It is nobody can deny that we do see the great virtue of American people. The reason is you do find a way to have a good cycle to help everyone get what they NEED instead of what they WANT. No one denies that it takes a longer time to have it all. American people shoud be patient. American people should save from good investing in the U.S. financial markets to have a better life. The goal behind everyone should be awared of is to promote other American people to have a decent job.

  My dear American people! This time is no different than others. But this time, American people has shown the world the social science does work well and the States does have a much higher quality of higher education. It is a self-healing process you have to go through!! You have those brilliant people to solve so many problems that Japanese can not deal with in two decades and those ones we can not imagine. You do have those unselfish scholars to come out with so many good ideas, mechanisms and ways of management somehow for your own once-paralyzed financial markets. You show the world that American people still fight for your own bads and try to bring goodies to your own people.

  So please do not hesitate to stop using QEs!! Just keep it a little longer. But try something new to come out with a better one for other people outside the States. We are afraid of the too much appreciation of our own currencies. We are so afraid of higher appreciation may cause our people lose their jobs. We DO NOT have so many brilliant people as YOU DO to come out with so many great ideas to make our lives better. We do need you to help your own people and US.

My Dear American people:

  Do not worry about the employment too much. The bad weather, the cautious, the reconsideration can all be blamed. The authority, the congress, the leader should all take this burden. But I have to remind you that the salary of a middle-class American people is equal to five Taiwanese or ten Chinese. So you think you get 88,000 people employed is bad, it means we have 440,000 Taiwanese people get employed. That is a big progress. The January and the February statistics are way too high which is not that kind in the normal life. The average jobs creation in the last 40 months is around 130,000 to 140,000. The average number from January to March this year is around 165,000. That is not a bad number. The most jobs you create are service jobs. If those jobs pay higher salaries, it just mean those people are skillful and professional, maybe lucky of them I may say that. There are a lot of people with Ph.D. titile can not find any decent jobs here in two or three years already. My dear American fellows, it is just not that easy to get the job done in those years.

  People often say that the USA is a promised land, I still believe it is. You have the most talent people who have good trainings almost in every way. You have the best scholar, the best economist, the best financial industry, the best basketball player, the best baseball player.... It just show you are way too high above other nations. You can see that Brazil, India, Russia and other emerging nations, the niche they have is cheap labor or natural resources, but there are lack of those best ones you have. It just show how hard to create those jobs in the States because your people just want the best. So only the best and the lucky one can get employed. Others are just in bad luck this time, but not in the eternity. Every dog has its(his/her) day. Just be patient and wait the sun rise in your eyes. It is just not that bad! You just need to prepare yourself well and wait for the right moment to have your chance. The only thing we should do is to believe that God has its way.

My Dear American fellows:

  As the article written by Prof. Farmer on the Financial Time today, April first, 2013, I know American people finally understand what the Fed are doing and what it tries hard to do in those years from 2009. There ia a picture who shows Mr Bernanke who is praying to God under his knees. I know he hopes God give him strength to help the State through the dire moment.

  Now the storm is away, but the broken ship of USA has not been restored yet. You still have a long way to go to keep yourself safe and sound in the following several decades to come. The first of all, the income inequality issue has to be mended. Just as the song sining" How can you mend this broken heart? How can you stop the rain from falling down? How can you stop the sun from shining what makes the world to go around? How can you mend this broken men?...." I guess those men here mean the American fellows of you. We need you to mend yourselves and show the strength and courage of your founding fathers have done before. To mend the income inequality through tax rate code fix, through the better redistribution of your wealth including investment wealth or something else, through a better scheme on the education subsidies, through a more equal chance or subsidies for the poor on the health issue, through a lot of social transfers to the poors. It has to be done without hesitate.

  My dear American fellows, it is the opportunity you have once in a decade now to fix the system you face. Of course, these days you show the world that American financial system has never be failed but just shows itself how it can be run smoothly but notoriously. As those rich people get most of the benefit of QEs and ITs, you just show the world how the greatness of American financial system can be and how it can generate wealth through such a system to bring all those goodies to all American weathier families. Those one who are able to make fortune just reap the most benefit of those QEx. Those one who can not assess those benefits through the financial system just put themselves in a more poor conditon that is even worse than those Fed actions implement before. It is the problem that you have to face.

  The issue here is how to bring such a good system to all those people or families of Americans, not just the wealthy families can reap those benefits. I have to remind you and just keep trying to do that. The greatness American society can bring to itself is a society with better system of wealth redistribution. The more narrow income ineqality society can bring a bigger fortune to everyone in the society. When people feel they have been treated fairly, it just give them strength to fight for their own daily lifes. The more deep pocket middle classes have can bring even larger wealth to the whole society. That is what American people count on before. That is what your founding fatheres are fighting for, a more equal society and a wealthier middle class of the USA. In short, you have to come out with something new and just keep negotiation with different parties on the issue of income inequality. You have to show the world that the State is still a promised land as used to be. You have to show the world you have the strength and courage as used to be even it is much harder than you think than those old good days. The inequality of incomes issue has to be addressed several times repeatly without stop until it get itself mended.

My Dear American people:

  Mr McCain shows his courage again. He demonstrates and teaches us we have to tell the right from the wrong!! Mr McCain, as used to be, still a great man!! He shows all American people that the election brings to a united USA, not a divided one. He shows us even the one on the other party still has the guts to tell the truth. Change the course and make it happen, please. Show the rest of world that the USA is still a country who can think and who can have good judgement around the fairness and happiness issues of all American people.

  每次我看美國的Puffy girls卡通就覺得很好笑,想說好在小鎮村有三個小朋友,每次都會在危機的時候出來拯救小鎮村,對抗那隻亂按鍵盤的猴子跟奇怪的壞人!!而那個長得很可愛帶著小圓帽的鎮長,每次都會在小鎮村出事的時候,趕快打電話給Puffy Girls求救!!那是一個很可愛的卡通!

  只是美國從2008年之後,發生的這些那些關於金融方面的事情,坦白說就一點都不可愛了,當然我們知道Bloomberg先生是個很可愛的先生,只是不知道他遇到了WS大壞蛋的時候,該打電話給誰??!!!美國目前已經走到了十字路口,美國人有很多很多的遲疑,他們不知道該往哪裡走去,過往美國確實是依賴金融活動的增加,來增加自身服務業的工作機會,因為很多很多的製造業都搬離美國了!!還記得我去Metropolitan Museum時,想買一個美國製的紀念品帶回家做紀念,結果通通都是MIC的,連那個綠綠的自由女神像的紀念品都是MIC,好失望的搖搖頭,所以就空手回家了!!

  經過這麼多年,美國人一直都相信自己的教育,自己的民主制度,與自己各方面的制度,是能夠讓美國人覺得很公平與很快樂的,最重要的是它能夠幫助每一個美國人實現自己的美國夢;只是這麼多年下來,我們見到了美國教育成本的越來越高,我們見到了知識變成了有錢人的專利,我們也見到了好不容易取得這些知識的人,因為種種原因,濫用了自己的知識與才能,替美國製造出來一個又一個讓人很傷心的金融災難,而且這樣的金融災難還隨著美國極度開放的金融市場,傳染與蔓延了全球!!連美國的鄰國楓葉國,都不得不搖頭,說要在邊境檢查每一輛通過的自動載具,確保沒有Zoombies會入境!!這當然是笑話,但是美國竟然變成了兩個極端的世界,說來也是讓人不勝唏噓的事情!!

  美國近來有部電影,演的是人群需要時間才能夠活下去,有的人因為掌握了管理與監督時間分配的權利,忘記了自己過往也是需要被人分配時間才活得下去,所以...!!很多很多的美國人,經過了很多很多的苦難,好不容易掌握了知識與成功之鑰,結果竟然做一些傷害大眾的事情,只希望自己更為成功,卻忽略了這樣那樣的成功,可能帶給別人更大的苦難與折磨!!還真是令人不勝唏噓!!

  美國人忘記了George Washington的精神,他以為自己也不過是個鄉巴佬,自己也不過是個普通的農夫,把事情做好了國家照顧好了,就可以回家種田過平常日子,就這樣就好,也沒求一直連任領袖下去,只想把國家的事情做到公平就好!!過往的美國,掌握權力的人是這麼的無私,那才是美國真正進步的動力!!

  只是今天WS掌握了美國的金融命脈,掌握了千百萬美國人的財富與希望,卻變得如此的自私與貪婪,忘記了GW的精神,那就是過往的自己或許也只是個鄉巴佬,掌握越多的知識代表的是身負更大的責任,而不是能夠對社會更加的予取予求,而不是利用自己的優勢去做看似合法但本質上是非法且傷害大眾的事情!!說來,美國的鄉巴佬精神,被這些人遺忘了!!

  很多人說美國已經破產了,很多人說美國人的數理程度很不好,很多人說美國人很沒禮貌,我們也常在電視上見到很多關於美國的種種,很多人說全世界最有錢的幾個人不少都是美國人,很多人總說....很多很多,只是這一切都是美國的實況!!

  很多人說美國的工會太強大了,因此造成美國的基礎教育落後,很多人說就是因為美國汽車公會太強大才會造成底特律變成了鬼城,造成GM一點一點的死去而破產,造成美國政府出來收拾殘局!很多人說就是因為美國已經沒有強大的工會,所以才會造成很多服務業的廠商剝削勞工,造成勞工的薪資不斷下降,造成企業負擔的勞工醫療與各種保險越來越少,很多人說就是因為美國沒有製造業了,所以美國才會失業率這麼高,也有人說美國還是世界上最強大的國家,因為它的技術進步到其他國家都跟不上,而不論是亞洲哪個國家,在很多很多的觀念上都落後美國很多很多,很多人說美國是世界上貧富不均最嚴重的國家,而美式的資本主義與自由民主,其實正是造成貧富不均的原因,而不是解決辦法!!這些都是對的!!也是美國人確實面對到的問題!!

  因此我總在這個版上說,不管是QEx,還是OTx,其實只是造成美國與全世界會利用金融市場賺錢的人越來越有錢,但是窮人根本很難提升自身的薪資水準,因為個人的薪資水準主要還是取決於當地政府與當地很多很多政經環境,美國人的薪資並沒有因為QEx而有所增加,因此Obama政府只好從提高基本工資來著手,美國人的生活水準其實是越差越多的,因此其實美國人已經不太敢繼續推動全民健保了!Obama政府很清楚地知道美國必須減持債務,因此大規模刪減到政府部門雇用的員工,這幾年裁減了數十萬人!!但是美國人的所得不平均的情況還是越來越嚴重,而美國中產階級家庭的薪資是越來越少的,美國有錢與有能力或是社會關係良好的人士,其所得確實在這幾年因為QEx等措施也增加,但是大部分的受薪階級與很難有機會接觸到金融市場的人,其實並沒有因為QE的緣故而有受惠,除非有賺錢的大老闆們佛心大發,願意多聘用一點員工,否則這些不懂財務金融的人,這些所得連吃飯養小孩養房都不夠的人,其實根本沒有能力去做甚麼改善自身經濟情況的事情!!這是美國目前遇到的困境!!其實這也是歐洲日本與中國以致於全球的受薪階級都面對到的難題!!

  坦白說,很多人都以為Apple應該專注於發展iTV,或是乾脆只要好好發展自己的Mac與手機產業就好,畢竟iTV需要的是內容而不再只是硬體,但是手機能夠透過大家的溝通與交流,不斷產生出新的內容,兩個人的交談與意見或是畫面的分享,就能產生出新的內容,但是....iTV的內容難道就是連到YouTube去嗎?或者需要其他大量的影音內容??那付費的機制呢??我想那不是Apple一家能夠完成的!!

  覺得iWatch不會是有賣點的產品,因為螢幕太小了,而很多手機的內容畢竟還是需要大一點的螢幕,最重要的是自從手機出來的之後,其實手錶的銷量就大減了,因為大家買手錶是為了看時間,現在有手機就能看時間,所以手機與手表的功能就合而為一!!我想在說的就是,大家完全忽略了過往日本過度投資於硬體技術上的錯誤經驗!!很多時候,在銷售的過程當中,必須考量到使用者到底喜歡甚麼以及願意付多少錢去使用這些,使用者能不能用便宜的方式取得這些愉快的使用經驗其實才是最重要的!!

  很多概念性的產品,過往Apple也曾出現過,但是在一開始的時候並沒有成功,有的原型產品在當時剛出來的時候其實是不被市場接受的,直到十幾年之後透過各方面條件的成熟,才算是變成熱賣的產品!!這也是為什麼日本很多產業還是會一點一點的死去,因為技術的進步沒有考量到消費者的喜好與可負擔性,終究是曲高和寡,終究是會面臨過度投資而無法回本的情況!!這也是我一直在說的,南朝鮮正走向日本過往走過的老路,而那是我們不應該模仿的對象!!

  因為技術的進步,不見得就代表消費者一定要去使用這樣的產品,日本很多產品就是代表!!很多時候目前某項產品的熱賣,賣點可能是過往不成熟或是還不到時候的概念,而那樣的概念可能是十多年以前就有的,但夠便宜卻是在十多年以後才發生的事情!!Apple的很多產品,不論是iTune,iPad,還是iPhone,其實都說明了這些產品並不具有原創性的概念在其中,當然使用者的介面設計是原創,軟體的創新是原創,但其熱銷的原因還是在於消費者能夠用比較便宜的方式,去感受這些商品所帶來的服務,因此才會變成是熱賣的商品!!我們見到了中國小米機的限量與限價,原因就在它知道自己的胃容,所以每次出來的產量都是限量的,它寧願培養一批死忠的消費者,願意不斷地去使用自身的產品,因此能夠用限價的方式去銷售,而盡量不打價格戰,賺取該賺取的利潤就好,其他的就讓別人去發展!!堅持產品的毛利與最終的獲利,其實才是Apple該堅守的原則!!

  因為美國已經進入了高技術密集與高資本密集的社會,美國的教育體系嚴重落後於這樣的準備,已經是不爭的事實!!Bill Gates大力呼籲美國人必須重新回頭認知到數學與文學方面,特別是關於語言溝通的教育,原因就在於未來美國的工作機會,特別是高等技術與較高薪資的工作上面,其實跟數學與語言文字認知的能力是息息相關的!Bill Gates也承認他們那代的美國人在這個議題上的忽略,使得自身相對上比較弱勢!!台灣其實也是如此,未來可能很多很多的高科技,動不動就需要百億或是千億才能夠成事,因此腦力密集就變得很重要了!!隨著美國與歐洲在財務工程學上面的荒謬與崩潰,歐洲銀行們信用風險的準備不足,以及美國很多的金融機構,特別是GS,JPM等大型金融機構,都重新去思考自身的獲利早已是重回資產管理的老路,而不再以炫人耳目的財務工程與投資銀行的觀點與概念,來吸引全球目光了!!財務風險管理(FRM)的管理觀念,也隨著VaR在信用與市場風險管理的越來越精緻而有所改變,原因就在於FRM的觀念早已脫去採用新金融商品來進行避險的角色,很多目前盛行的風險管理的技術,其實只是改進過往一般金融管理的工具,卻根本不再另外採用衍生性金融商品,這已經是事實!!過往衍生性金融商品能以便宜價格販賣的時代已經結束,現在的交易價格都遠比過往高了許多,特別是經過這麼多年之後,人們終於體認到只有衍生性金融商品價格變高,才有可能避免這些無謂的金融商品可能造成的系統性風險,因為價格高會逼得人們去思考是否非用這些東西不可,因為很多時候其背後的價格是根本很難決定的,即便當下決定了,卻可能因為各種原因而有非常大的價格變化,因為價格背後的風險因子很多,不是模型能夠在一開始就充分瞭解與認知的!!甚至很多時候大家都見到衍生性金融商品的使用,竟然可能是越避越險的,這點連Warren Buffet在自身的實作上面都已經見到,我們當然清楚過往幾年WB在自身衍生性金融商品管理上的的損失,也見到了去年第四季WB在衍生性金融商品的巨幅獲利但所費不貲,原因就在於他將自身保險公司所需承擔的風險轉嫁給了市場,而去年美國的天災不斷,而此時這些Derivatives正巧用上,但是所付出的成本卻很高!!

  未來在Asset management上,採用自然避險的方式已經越來越明顯,隨著今年美國可能出現的通貨膨脹,大家盡量運用的利率風險管理多為傳統ALM的再延伸,所有比較先進且信譽卓著的Asset managers都將自身債券的Duration大幅降低,且將自身持有的金融債券的信用評等提高,還有就是大量增加美元持有的部位!!最重要的是隨著對於美國通膨的預期增加,以及來自於全球的資金回流美國,大家都增加了自身美元匯率的避險,美元可能在第二季時相對於全球達到高峰,但美元是否再度轉弱,其實取決於美元的運用價值,如果美國的就業順利,那美國長期被忽略的可轉換證券與債券等金融商品,將因為股市加溫,連帶使得這些金融商品,因為市場流動性的充裕而重新擦亮,此時金融市場已經不再是以複雜性的derivatives為出發,而是重新去思考如何利用過往發展久遠的IR derivatives作為出發,此時美國Fed或許就能將自身的MBS重新注入市場,因為MBS過往的設計就在於其精巧的幫忙規避長天期的利率風險,但是前提是美國殖利率曲線必須有相當程度的變動;這與目前FED的Bernanke的想法是有出入的,因為大家都希望能夠再繼續幫忙美國房貸戶降低長天期的利率承受,主因當然在於美國早就是採用ARM的房貸付款機制,這是美國面臨的兩難!要MBS能夠早點回到市場中,勢必需要比較變動大的殖利率曲線,但是這對負債高的美國人卻又是很不利的,因此美國市場這幾年的金融市場,總是在通貨膨脹與債務解決這兩個議題上面擺盪!!目前的共識是先持續維持平穩的(flat)殖利率曲線,再看看未來的可能,但隨著公債殖利率的上升,已經壓縮到投資級債券的價格與相關金融商品的價格變動!!

  MBS可能面對的價格損失也是另一個重點,非美國政府機構型的MBS變成市場主流,因為利息支付多寡的保護,早已再度成為債券持有原因的考量重心,原因還是利率風險與通貨膨脹,美國在通貨膨脹的抑制上面還是需要看老天的臉色,如果美國再過來是晴空萬里,預計今年美國的農產品生產將比去年高很多很多,此時或許印度相對上就變成是新興市場中的投資首選,因為糧食進口價格將開始大幅度降低,而世界油價已經因為美國不再是全球進口第一(現在已是中國),預計美國的通膨應該可以得到很好的控制,如此美國就比較不擔心自身的殖利率變動,只是此時FED是否適合將自身MBS賣出給市場,就取決於市場的胃容,胃容多少取決市場的口袋深度,胃容不大價格不會太好,而且利率避險的功能就不是很大了!!

  不過相對於全世界,美國已經是共同基金的投資大國,對此,大家都知道金融市場好對美國大眾是利多於弊,因為全民受益,而且大家都能透過shadow market來進行融通,此時美國的科技進步與資本市場的進步,就是美國最大的立基!!

My Dear American people:

  As the latedly news show, you already have the inflation expectation from the gasoline price raising. IT is a good sign bus also a warning. It shows you have to counter the QE's side effect and do whatever it takes to concentrate on the housing bubble issue. That is the reason why I porpose the idea of subsidy of mortgage interest of homeowners. It contains several issues there, one is who should get the subsidy? I guess those ones who has a legitimate and permanent job gets the benefit first, those who have temporary jobs but try hard to keep the house second. Those who can not afford their houses, you should use other ways to help them. The other issue is how to reduce their daily burden of life. The healthcare issue is a must-be right now. As we know there are too many elder people who spend a big fortune on their medicare treatment or the daily care fee. The healthcare system has to be reorganized. I guess the first step is try to build some heathcare institution as others role model and bring those health reform idea on those institutions in each state. The goal is try best to reduce the health care cost of every American citizen. The third issue is to rebuild financal instituions. We know those large instituions become even bigger because they are afraid of falling. But we also know as the States is a nation with larger service businesses, you should try to reduce the size of financial instituions and make them to be more concentrated on specific business. The immediate benefit is it can bring jobs to those service businesses. It is the thing you have to try.

My Dear American people:

  This time other nations will try to follow your footstep to use the same procedure of Quantitative Easing. I know they will fail or can not succeed somehow because they do not have the free society or free market as you do. You know I mean Japan. Its financial market is not open to foreigners and its people have narrow minds.They just can not let ghosts leave their towns because they still live in the past with those ghosts.

  Let we think through reasons behind QE. We want people to feel the inflation is coming. We want those people in heavily debt burden to feel a little bit easier. We want the financial market to accelerate the money flow through the economy. We want the circulation rate of US dollars increase in the States. We hope those new or trouble companies can take advantage of those QEs and have more people employed. I guess those goals have not been fulfilled these days somehow. It just show how those QEs need some other actions or policies to coordinate with, like more trades with other nations or something else. We need something which can increase the circulation rate of money with the real economy activies involving instead of creating hyperinflation expectaion.

  The goal of QEs is try to reduce the debt burden of people and let them feel the hope and free again. Give them useful tools to resolve their debts and make their lives back on the normal track. It is the idea behind. The QE should not be the tool only to let those rich peole become even richer. The QE should let those poor people can HAVE those good things just as those richer ones. They can take advantage of those benefits that the QE brings too. They can take advatage of all kinds of benefit that those QEs bring such as falling US dollar, rising emerging financial markets or something else. Just like the rich people, they can invest in foreign nations to bring some fortune back to improve their lives. If they can not, I guess the QE should be abandoned. If those years' QEs can not make those rich people of American realize better that they should contribute more back to the US society, then I think those acts are in vain. If you can not raise taxes on those ones who take huge benefits from those QEs and OTs, I guess those actions should be abandoned.

  If those people with heavily debt burden can not access the financial market through those actions of QEs, I think you should find other ways to let them have it. The prupose behind QEs is to let those poeple in heavily debt burden feel easier and have their lives back again. The QE should be treasured if it does have those effects as we want. If it does not, please just stop those money games in towns. We just can not tolerate it ANYMORE!!

My Dear American people:

  It is time to rethink the used to be, it is time to stop the usual measure of QE now. The bottom line of QE is try to reduce the borrowing cost and increase the pocket of all homeowners. That is what it counts and we rely on. As American consumers have money in their pocket, they can promote the economy to a sustainable level of consumption and make other people have their good lives. It is a good cycle for whole people. Now, we see the QE has reached its limit and the structure of American economy has changed quite well. We also know that there are million of houseowners who still have their mortgage debts higher than their market level of houses. It just shows if the original idea behind QE is try to lower the cost or the burden to keep the house, then you should change the course of your policy to make it more effective. Because the lenders are reluctant to accept the lower rate of lending now.

  This time, you should consider the subsidy of mortage interests to homeowner in order to let them have more money to invest, to save, or to consume. It is still the way you have to do but with different policies as the QE has gone to its limit and we do not see any substantial effect of this policy anymore. The fear of inflation os a good thing rather a bad thing. But the QE you perform does not have that expectation right now. And it just can not let the debt burden people become easier to live their lives. As people do not know how to use or take advantage of QE, it just shows the policy has to end somehow. The ultimate goal here is try to reduce the burden of homeowner and try to let them feel better. The most important goal here is try your best to revive the property market but with a healthy way through higher standard livings raising. I guess it will take years to let those homeowners to have their mortgage debts lower than their peoperty prices as the price has gone too high before. It takes time to reach the goal. But all you should do is try to alleviate homeowners' burden and increase their happiness somehow. That is the reason why you perform QEs. Because you want to make them burdenless and have some money in their pockets to have a better life.

  The States is on the right track. We see a big progress these years and you did make the world surprise and wonder how the States can revive itself in a shorter period of time. It all counts on your free society and free economy ideas. You just make everyone to believe the States can have a brighter future than any other coutries in the world as you show your respect to the professional minds and you does have the most dynamic economy in this world. It just shows you do have those talent people in charge of your nation that no other nations can have. We are eager to see a progress that at least 2 million people can be employed each year from now on. If you can reach the goal, that is the best thing the world can have.

Hello there:

  其實美國已經擺脫了西元2008年次貸風暴的衰退,只是很多人可能會很質疑那為什麼這麼多人還繼續失業,其實追根究柢是美國產業的改變,美國很多很多產業都已經轉型與改變到不需要太多的人力,或者說需要的是高品質且有生產力的人力,但是過往很多美國人在同一產業裡面工作,其實並未具有目前環境所需要的生產力,因此這些人就再也回不到過往的工作崗位上了!另外就是過往在西元2008年左右,很多美國人的工作是金融方面的,但是很多金融的工作,需要的是美國人大量的儲蓄來支持的,只是今天美國人連溫飽都成問題了,又哪有錢能夠支應那些財務創新與相關的金融商品?因此那些高薪的工作都消失了,需要相關數理邏輯能力方面的工作已經因此消失了!!我想這些工作可能要很多很多年之後才可能再出現,因為大部分的美國中產階級都沒有那麼多的儲蓄了,據說美國的中產階級從年薪一百六十五萬元新台幣,已經降到年薪一百五十三萬元新台幣了,少了十二萬元新台幣左右!大家別忘了還有好幾兆美元的MBS沒人買,所以Fed只好先將它們窖藏了!!其實美國從西元2002年之後到2007-2008年金融泡沫危機這中間,很多的工作機會其實都是很浮誇的被創造出來的!!從西元2000年之後的數年以來,不論是美國的微軟(Microsoft),惠普(HP),還是戴爾(Dell)或其他科技產業,其中不少工作早就外包,連最基本的程式編碼的工作其實都已經外包,海外的工程師能夠執行這些不太具有創意且規格早就被死板定下來的工作,美國比較有產能的工作者只負責監督與組裝這些外包的工作,組裝?是的!您不知道光是電腦程式早就可以是組裝的了嗎?只要把流程與邏輯流程圖畫出來,只要知道那些部份採用哪些優化過的演算方法,大部分惱人的程式都可以外包,可以在中國北京找到計算機科學的人來寫,也可以在印度找到出身印度高等學府的電算系的人來做,這就像是在一個全自動的汽車生產工廠,只要幾個重要的生產流程中放一些能夠及時解決問題的高端技術工人,其他所有的生產與需要的零組件都能夠全自動化了,但是美國企業在這裡面還是有主導權的,只是這些工作真的都不需要雇用昂貴工資的美國人來做!!美國很多的工作其實就是這樣的形式,也因為如此,美國人的工作只會越來越少,因為高污染與低效率的工作,在美國嚴格的環境保護與各種法規之下,很多工作根本很難會再度存在於美國!!除非公司老闆是做慈善事業的,要給低階的工作機會,同時又得支付高額的保險與退休金,那是絕對不會賺錢的,從這裡知道美國的退休金制度與醫療制度可能都得進一步再縮減,就像被人罵死的Wal-Mart一般!!

  美國人可能必須重新思考,是不是願意接受很多工作都是人力派遣的性質或是兼職的工作,因為低階的工作只有用這樣的形式才可能長期出現在美國,只是美國就必須思考如何創造低生活水準(some areas with lower standard of living environment)的一些生活地區給這些人生活,必須讓這些人能夠依賴那樣的薪水又能養家活口,還有讓自己的孩子有能有受到好教育的機會!!這些聽起來都像是天方夜譚般的故事!!我知道Mr.Obama不以為是如此的,他還是很努力在為美國的轉型打拼,只是連美國的有錢人都不太願意多付一點稅,幫助老年人有比較好的健保,幫助窮人有比較好的生活,又如何解決美國製造業嚴重不足的問題呢?只有比較多的製造業,才能帶出相關的服務業就業,別忘了金融業永遠都應該是去服務工業與製造業的,而不只是幫有錢人避稅與套利,或是將大家的財富重分配到自己的口袋裡面!!

  其實這不是只有美國面對到的困境,本地其實早就是這樣了,很多高等教育的公立學校,其實政府在學雜費的補助是超過一半的,因此高等教育的公立學校學生一學期學雜費不超過兩萬二左右,但同樣科系的私校學生一學期的學雜費就超過五萬五千元以上,而且品質可能還不到公立學校的一半,這裡面的差異主要就在於國家的補助!!沒有政府的補助,本地不會有這麼多的博碩士,因為如果是用三倍的學雜費來支應,我想很多人都會在一開始就打退堂鼓,其實公立學校的博碩士學生,政府大約都補助了近三分之二的所有學習費用,反觀私校學生,政府的補助少之又少!因此私校只好印畢業證書換鈔票了,很多私校的碩博士學生的英文能力,連台北市公立高中的高中畢業生都不如!別忘了台北市前三志願的高中,即便是念比較好的學校了,百分之九十五的小孩都是會去補習英文數學物理化學的,因此程度只會越差越多而已!!只是政府沒有章法的補助,很多私校的博碩士坦白說是連一般比較好的大學能力都不具備的,又如何期望這些人能做高薪的工作?又如何期望這些人在學校教書能夠教出甚麼好學生來?而很多念公立大學的小孩都是有補習的,相對上可能光是高中與國中階段,一年的補習費都超過十幾萬元以上的新台幣,每個月至少需要一萬到一萬五新台幣的補習費用,或者自己的父母同時也是學校老師或大學教授之類的,因此光是評分與寫推薦信就比弱勢的孩子來得有優勢,自然比較有機會進入台政清交成,弱勢的家庭連吃飯都是大問題,怎麼可能讓孩子又另外花錢補習,很多時候即便補習,也因為沒有那個環境以致於學習效果不佳,我擔任私塾已經超過二十個年頭了,見到了即便是等於免費替這些弱勢孩子補強課業,他們的程度依然是跟不上的,原因就在於家庭的環境與父母的觀念,這些那些都是很大的問題,而這已是台灣的大盲點了,我也不好再多說甚麼!

  因此美國如果希望有更多品質佳的人力資源,那國家在教育上的補助就需要更多了,只是美國有這麼多的錢讓大家都受到這麼好的教育嗎?我想沒有那個國家做得到吧!!因此即便企業能夠雇用,可能也找不到這麼多人了!!

  不過美國還是有調整的,美國再過來會變成汽油出口大國,而美國的農產品與各類食物也可以在國際間賣到好的價格,因此美國的農人收入在未來會持續增加是可以預期到的!只是美國的量販店店員要能夠增加薪水,可能就必須依賴很多產品必須重新在美國生產,但是美國多如牛毛的法規與退休金與各種繁瑣的規定,都使得企業無法用合理的價格雇用員工,因為這樣的生產成本根本無法支應所能夠賺到的報酬,主因當然是美國是個高度競爭的市場!!

  這也是Mr. Obama參照了日本的deflation情境所以為的,如果要美國人都能就業,只有拉低美國的生活水準才行!只是很多人給的答案卻是不同的,很多人都以為美國該做的是檢討自身退休金制度,想辦法降低企業退休金的負擔,以及企業所需要支應勞工的各種保險支出,如何降低企業雇用員工的成本其實才是提升就業最重要的事情,因此過往都是採用對企業減稅的方式,但是過度減稅並沒有讓企業願意將這些工作留在美國,因為海外的雇員對美國企業來說,都是類似人力派遣的方式,因此就算臨時解雇都是不需要任何成本的,那個雇主不愛這樣的聘僱關係呢?

  只是如此就是惡性循環了,又有那個雇主願意花大錢雇用很多勞工呢?而美國很多產業都走向大型化,那只會使得企業雇用勞工更是有很多很多的力量,自然可能肆意壓低員工的薪資與福利,試問美國的就業能夠很快得到解決嗎?我想那是不容易的!!

Hello there:

  其實我們是被美國人害的,我們被美國人害慘了,被美國錯誤的迷思害得好慘好慘,最後還要我們反過來教育美國人,跟他們說他們原來的觀念是錯的!

  美國人一直都有一個迷思,那就是當一個國家提高它自己的關稅時,就該要求協力廠商去該國設廠,或者將整個生產鏈搬到那個國家去,其實台灣的廠商被美國這樣的觀念害死了,很多台灣的廠商一開始根本就不該前往中國設廠的,原因是本來預期生產的過程只要照著當初美國總部與美國廠商的要求,但是一旦必須開發新品的時候,美國廠商根本對於這樣的生產所可能面對到的問題是一竅不通的,因此很多很多生產中才會遇到的問題,就只能依賴當地的工程師來解決了,久而久之,美國人逼著台灣將整個產業鏈通通搬到中國去,而這樣的產業鏈也很難在一夕之間搬回美國或是台灣了,因為中間很多很多的生產Know-how早就在地化了,早就是當地的工程師或是台灣過去支援的工程師才知道與能夠解決的,而美國廠商除了只有花錢找人解決之外,別無其他的作用!!這是美國人的迷思所造成的!!

  美國人必須重新思考國際分工的關係,很多時候美國人之所以不能進行相關的產業創新,或是創新不足,主要的原因就在於美國沒有生產這些新產品的生產線,美國人就無法透過生產線上流程與產品製造過程的改進,來強化自身智慧財產權的保障與維護,這才是其他國家能夠肆無忌憚的偷取美國智財權的真正原因!!因為美國要重新去思考,即便全世界都能夠生產美國需要的產品,即便全世界都能夠比較便宜生產,但美國總是要每個公司都至少留下一條生產線,從生產的過程中重新去累積自身的智慧,重新去檢視與承認那些流程與產品製造的過程確實是需要改進的,我想美國人的創意絕對不輸給其他人,因為自由的環境本來就比較適合創新,因此美國人該做的就是將自身公司產品,至少選擇一種留在美國生產,透過保有這樣的生產鏈,透過保有這樣的生產流程,去思考自身的產品創新,即便其他國家用關稅的方式為難,最多就是那個國家的居民被迫要用比世界其他國家貴相當程度的價格去購買這些產品,而那些差價就是進口關稅與相關的交易成本,而那就是那個國家的人民必須承受的!!

My Dear American people:

  There seems to be a dilemma between deflation and the living standard these days. If we want to let those once poor nations join into the chain of world trades. It is inevitable to see more advanced nations have to face the problem of deflation. But it does not mean lower standard livings of advanced nations. It just mean we can buy cheaper products from those nations. The quality can reveal its price. Even those people living in developing nations know the philosophy well and love to pay higher price for it. If the deflation is a normal thing for us, how come poeple always blame the bad economy on the deflation? I think the reason behind is due to misperception. The USA does face deflation in many goods but people do not see the truely deflation happens there. The reason behind is people always can find some products to let them pay higher prices. In the 1990s, those products are IT products. In the 2000s, those products are food products. It just shows the deflation is a vague concept because we do not see the price level is decreasing all the time. The reason behind is the labor cost or human capital always find its way to show on some goods or services and people do pay more on those things. It means people do find the way to increase their salaries in the respective business. The labor wage does find some increases in some industries or some products. In such case, the deflation in some products are good because people can pay a little more on those products with increasing prices. And the general price level will not fall.

  If you ask me how come Japan face deflation all the time these days, I guess the answer is obvious due to the aging society with lower expectation on their lives. Because people do not need a lot of fancy things anymore. People even do not need some fancy APPs on their smartphones. How can you expect there will be a trend of inflation as those people are elder and reluctant to face a new world? Those products they need can all be produced offshore and what they need most is what they can not afford, that is the medicare. People can not afford those high quality medicare with higher prices, so they can not pay much for it. Even the goods or services with increasing costs like medicare can not get its decent price to be paid by the elder Japanese, how can you expect the society can live in an inflation world? So do not expect Japan can raise its inflation rate to 2 percent unless they face a nortorious hyperinflation. It just won't happen.

  It also may not happen in the States because right now we still see those elder people in the States use Apps on their smartphones and we do see people love to pay big bucks on a lot of fancy things. It will bring the inflation to those goods and services, so is the society. That is the reason why the USA is different from Japan. And it is the reason why we will not expect the deflation happens in the States lately. It also mean the living standard in real purchasing power is not falling if you keep your innovation alive and let people (elder or young) love to use and pay for it. Those deflation and nonsence lower living standards will not happen or to be seen in the States as some people worry about.

My Dear American people:

  I still try to think hard a question lately, that is "Is it worth for Americans to trade 7 or 8 trillions US deficit for 5 to 6 million American people getting employed?" If the answer is Yes, then you should go on and do more. If the answer is No, then you must realize it is not so hard to resolve it. All you have to do is ask the Fed to rebalance its balance sheet. When it sells 5 trillion Mortgage Backed securities back to the market for the exchange of US government bonds, the US deficit is largerly reduced and gone. Then the mortgage market is on its own. But you may suffer from the endless falling of your property prices. And you will have to face the illiquidity problem of your financial markets all over again. That is the reason why when Fed faces the malfunction of financial market, it just tries hard to play the role of demand side.(to support the market)

  After all those years, American people have shown us that the greatness of an integrated world. If the States has bad economy, you can invest other nations to have a better life. Because of it, poeple do not need to suffer as used to be. It is the power of bilateral or multilateral trades which includes financial trading, intellectual property trading or something else. It is an integrated world and people already stop fighting each other. It is a new life in front of us. It is worth to live the life like that. Just put the hate on the sideline and move on. There will be a better life for you to live on.