經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

My Dear American Friends:

  It is time to move on without looking back anymore.I know there are a lot of people who have angers for Wall Street. But it is your fault to let those ghost stories happened again and again. The LTCM is funded by J.P. Morgan and other big institutions at the time, you choose to bail it out in case of its liquidity problem may cause bigger systemtic risk. It is the first and the foremost bail out which sets an example that Wall Street can play the game and leave the mess to the government(from the government bonds issued for the disaster)! And you also have some big problems as you let the Citi to run against the Deutsche Bank, the financial system of Europe is their banks are largerly held by the government or quasi-government agencies. It means if the institution creates larger profit, it will go to the government eventually as the government holds a larger protion of their common shares. If it creates some big losses, even the government has to bail out, it will have to pay back to the government in the form of dividends or higher share price as it is a nationalized institution. But for your nation, your financial institutions are privately held, and there is no good mechanism to guarantee that even those institutions ruin the system, it has to pay back to the government as the government plays the role as the larger shareholder. So you have to ask Citi or other institution to issue common stocks or preferred shares to exchange for the government's money. It guarantees that as those banks get thenselves back on track, then they will and have to pay back to the nation in the form of dividends or higher share prices. But you neglect some points that the most beneficial one needs the least funding from the government in the disater, and it means that those institutions get larger benefits from the disaster as there is much less competition in the market in those dire moments. They can get a larger share of those profits and have larger bonuses for themselves. It is the big issue that people think to be an UNFAIR thing and has to be adjusted from the law or something else. I guess you have to make it right in the future crisis dealing. Maybe it is time for you to think about the issue of how to nationalize those institutions at the dire moment in case to face the unfair bonus issue next time!!

Hello there, my dear American fellows:

  You are so smart to know it is the time to move on!! We see a lot of people try to pick themselves up and go out to face the real life...FIND A DECENT JOB....That is a good sign!! We also see a different perspective about the prospect of U.S. economy, I guess they are all half right!! The most important thing happens lately is we are so glad to see the US greenback is flowing back to the States. It is an important triumph for the QEs and it is just to show that the world thinks "no matter how you guys think you are vulnerable, we all have some sort of problems as yours, higher unemployment rate, unused factory capacity, lousy or expensive healthcare or something else". Every country has its own problems. And they are no better than the States.

  Move on, move on, my dear fellows. No turning back!! If you stop mourning your old stiches, the world will get better. It is not healed by the God, but in some sense, it is healed by the optimistic Americans. Do not have any doubt about it. Don't deny yourselves. Do not hesitate to doubt about anything. Don't be that paranoid!! God does show its way and it does give us strength or rights not to turning back.

  My Dear American friends, we need you to be as stronger as used to be!! We need you to be as optimism as used to be. The world's growth engine seems back on your shoulders again when we see China is in its political transition pain and India is suffering from higher inflation  with shortage of water and food. Russia seems to be better now but it has its own problem. Brazil counts on your investment and something else. So....the world is expecting you to be as sober as the old days. Do not get yourself intoxicated again....

  P.L.E.A.S.E......

To Sir Bernanke:

  Use the government's power to help AIG and GM is nothing wrong, so does the bailout to Wall Street!! You have mentioned that you never do the money printing thing instead of increasing the credit and reducing the interest rate which is the cost of capital for funding and investment. I think it is not that correct, it is wrong!! When the governemt purchases the MBS, it just shows the government wants to support the price and to provide the liquidity for this market. It is nothing wrong to support the market if the market is lack of confidence. But if the market has to go down in order to show its real nature, then it is wrong to purchase more. I know many people do not agree with this thought, especially we can not just sit tight to see those drowning people die slowly. We have to do something. Sir, you already did and did a good job. The operation twist lets the long-term mortgage rate go down dramatically. The corporate bond issued dollar has piled up to the recent high level for the latest season in five years which shows that corporations believe that it is the perfect time to have the lowest funding cost. If there is another QE, then they all expect the inflation will go much higher. People may expect to see the failure of further quantitative policy as "less is more" instead of "more is safer".

My dear American fellows:

  Maybe it is time to think about the QE3 right now when all the economic message shows the warm spring is about the end and people do spend a lot but they earn not much. I know that is not much enough to create more jobs as we wish before. But the detail implementation of QE3 have to be think thoroughly because we already see the limit of yield curve twist operation and the QE3 may bring higher inflation expectation. Especially right now, some American industries count on higher oil price to produce some expensive oil-related products. If the price of oil is not that high, we may not see those new emerging industry to boom and rise. That is the changing face we see, but we have no idea how much capability we have to tolerate the normal age of higher oil price. I guess that is for sure. There is no turning back for oil price to be tamed in the near future. That is the most dangerous thing for the implementation of QE3!! There seems to be a contradiction for the QE3 implementation and the new oil-related industry emerging for US to go on, that is the issue you have to resolve!!

  If long-lasting higher level of oil price becomes reality, it is good for US to adapt itself and lead the world into the energy-saved transportation industries or something and even a new lifestype. It is time for US to revolutionize itself again because we do face the danger of less and less natural resource to consume. New industry creation seems to be the only way for us to accomodate.

  The other way to increase the employment rate is the creation of a new healthcare system as it will increase the need of manpower and those jobs can not be moved to overseas as it is the human-care business of aged people or patients. The revolution of national healthcare system seems to be the time for US. In Taiwan, we also put the idea that rich people should take more burden for the care of poor, so we even create some incremental-fee-added payment to rich people who has higher monthly salary to pay just a little more each month. Or the system can not be sustainable because the healthcare cost does increase every year.

  Right now, Americans face a new challenge. Many big corporations have tons of money but get no place to spend or invest, it creates the problem that those money can not be used to create new jobs. And it is also the reason why US stock market is booming right now. Because every time the market goes down, it just induces the people to buy back its share and make the share price to be sustainable. It is a reality we just see and still be true for the near future to come. But it can not go on forever. The reason behind is those financial activities create no new wealth but just make corporation to have less cash on hand gradually. So right now, American needs some new industries for people to invest and creates new jobs for people to live on. I guess the healthcare industry may be a good idea. But it is so hard to implement it and need careful judgement and balance for each side.

  To be honest, it is not an easy job not matter who is president and which party is in control. So...May God bless all of us!!

Dear Sir:

  I am so glad to know your Eastern Asian Traveling. It is good for the stability of this region!! But I have to restate our view about the U.S. Presd. election that we can not help one side to defeat the other one. The reasons behind is that you are truely our new friend but Republican people used to support our nation for almost an century. They help us fight Japanese in WW II and they help us to defend our nation until the new Presd. Jimmy refuses to build both relations with PRC and ROC, For us, that is a sad message Democratic people used to send to us. So in our society, we still believe Republican people more than Democratic people. If you really wish we can keep silent from something that may hurt your compaign. I guess you should tolerate our stand on your nation's beef. I love U.S. beef and know that farmers in U.S. are living in the hell until now, especially those days of financial crisis. We really love to support American Beef, especially those ones can pass our health standard. We do respect your contribution to the world and you do make my parents financial assets safe and sound in some ways and in some forms. We do appreciate it. But our national security and national interest have to be preserved somehow. We can guarantee to you that we are neutral to the campaign and without any bias against each side, Mr. Romney and yours. We do wish your country to be prosper and in better shape in the near future. That is what we believe in!! These days, everyone seems to be afraid of nuclear issue. We are too!!  We also do need F35 or something more advanced weapon to let others know that we have the capability to defend ourselves! We want to be a free nation but not to play the role of Cuba or south Vietnam! Please do not make us to choose to be either Cuba or South Vietnam!! Or we may have to be forced to play the  Cuba's role instead of South Vietnam's one because we have no place to RETREAT anymore! This time, we have to fight for oueselves and for our children if it is neceaasry!  May God bless your country and us!! You have to believe that the mainland China is changing, and they finally realize the culture of Confucius is the most important asset for Chinese people. Respect your teachers and parents is very important!! I think that is a good news to the world!! Because they have to change and give up communist ideas somehow and in a reasonable sense. 

  Sincerely

Hello there:

  這是個難搞的問題!!一來中東有石油枯竭的問題,因此中東各國都有要蓋核電廠的計畫,已取代自身過往用石油發電與海水淨化的用水用電問題,再者中東也希望透過發展觀光來達到創造收入的效果,但中東因為缺水缺電,因此採用的是吸引高資產的客戶進行觀光與置產!!這跟國內低價搶中國與東南亞觀光客是不同的!!

  只是中東如果處處遍布核電廠,其實對以色列來說應該是有利而非有害的,因為這代表著這些核電廠需要更多的安全防護,美國的勢力勢必會介入更深,因為核電廠一旦遭到破壞,將對生態與中東各國的影響甚遠,絕子絕孫都是可能,這點無疑反倒對以色列形成天然的保護!只是沒水沒電是會完蛋的,更遑論連石油都枯竭了,如今也只剩下走核能這一途了!!所以不太清楚為何以色列擔心核電廠,唯一可能自然是發展核電廠就能進一步發展核武器,只是巴基斯坦也有核武,光是擔心巴國被極激進派回教徒奪權,就夠讓人傷神了,這也是美國始終不敢讓巴國進行亂七八糟的民主程序的原因,因為巴國有核武!!

  同樣地,伊朗也有過自己的政治投票,上次沒能將激進派趕下台,不代表下次不會,感覺上伊朗確實在民主化的過程,是有慢慢改變的可能性;畢竟物質生活提升後,人們總會想到政治上的變革的!!需要時間吧!!埃及不是一夕變天嗎??!!所以很多事都很難說的,它們不會不知道自己國家很落後吧!!缺水缺電,石油的品質也不算很好,還有甚麼??搞革命把美國炸的爛爛的??會不會太幼稚??一天到晚亂講亂威嚇別人,有甚麼好處??沒甚麼幫助吧??!!!

  好笑的是,竟然有人跟著起舞??會不會太Paranoid??

  I am delighted that Mr. Obama does know how and when to deal those tough issues. And I think for Syria and Iran, he will show his leadership on those pain-in-the-ass issues. May God bless him and Us....

蒨,我的愛:

  今天遇見E.Gerald. Corrigan先生,他是以前Fed/New York分行的主管,寫過很多很棒很嚴謹的文章說!!我以前只要有他的文章出版,一定都是去找出來下載,然後回家反覆閱讀的!!今天見到他跟Paul Volcker先生一樣垂垂老已,覺得Goldman Sach很沒良心,利用老先生搏取世人同情說,找他當門神!!Corrigan應該在家休息了,看他說話就覺得他身體不太好說,也感覺得到他的老邁與疲憊!可能也知道自己要替Goldman美化公司形象,所以還蠻賣力的,有點看不下去說!這裡,妳就見到猶太人真的很團結,不像外省人一天到晚自己內鬥,一盤散沙!!今天還有見到Gordy說,以前很喜歡唸他的文章說!!還有William Cohan,書寫的很生動的人!!(022812)

  今天我遇到了Robert Shiller,很多年以前在政大遇到過他來系所裡演講,後來在臺大也遇過他,他來院裡演講,很傷感的是當時我都還沒畢業,也一直為了學位苦惱,今天在這個場合遇見他,心情是複雜的,很想跟他說我終於畢業了!!他或許不知道我是誰,也或許根本沒印象在TPE見過我,而今我們在NY相見,他忙著推銷自己的新書,想賺點錢好退休與養家摟!!也是很辛苦的!!RRobert Shiller一直都是一個口齒清楚的好演說者,想來也是個好老師,比起很多自己開公司亂講一通的CEO等,聽他講Finance與the good society,實在是好太多了!!我還蠻喜歡聽他演講的說!!Shiller index地產指數是很重要的經濟指標說!!(022912)

Dear Sir:

  I am so sorry to use curse word on ..... as I do not get used to be noticed for so many years. And I know maybe I will still be monitored for several years to come.  I know you know me very well and know that we did a good job for our nation by successful persuading people to keep the country this way. I know you already notice me before you are elected. And you also notice that I do have a good predictive power as my professional job is about the statistics. I really appreciate that you can implement the policies people take that as saved boats in the ocean. I am also grateful that you let Mr. Bernanke do his job without any further instruction. And Mr. Bernanke does do his job well. Mr Bernanke is a very good scholar and has his profession on the FED's acts. Also, I know he is a really nice guy who can tell which one is a rising star, e.g. Mr. Krugman. I know U.S. has a lot of professional ones who can run your country in a pretty good way. It is the thing that no other nation can reach!! I really hope you can win your people's heart and run the nation without pretty nasty critism.

  I really hope you can have the heart to compromise for those policies you preach and meet people half way to get those things in progress. It is not an easy job, but with no progress, it can make people doubt your leadership. I guess that everything has to be done little by little. And all you have to do is to discuss it with others and renegotiate them further. That is the only thing you should focus on!!

  All in all, best wishes for you and your country. May God bless Uncle Sam and us!!

My Dear American Friends:

  I know you are so eager to know the time and how to for the next FED's quantitative easing. I think it is a little hestitate to implement QE3 right now even though I know traders all around the world wait for the next big move of FED. The reasons I think this way are as follows:

  (1)The Dodd-Frank Act has not reached to the steady state of its financial overhaul yet. We are still not sure if the QE3 will cause anthoer consequence of wealth wrongly-redistrubution. I think if your congressmen and congresswomen can pass some laws to restore the "Bush Tax Cut" back to its first place. I guess the time would be better to perform this world's wealth-redistribution mechanism. You can see those things from cash flow reservation of larger American corporations, like GE, P&G and especially Apple. They all have enormously outstanding cash preservations. It shows that they have doubt for the near future economic situation, especially for the United States of America. The basic idea of Quantitative Easing for Uncle Sam is it helps people to restore their confidences and to help them get their jobs back instead of a new round of financial gambling. Therefore, this time you need to go physical overhaul FIRST. As everyone gets better, the time for the consesus reached, the next quantitative easing will perform better. I guess it will be quite easy to largely reduce the umemployment rate of your nation at that time. As the financial infrastructure is rebuilt and the new money-flow chain gets itself working. The time for the new around quantitative easing may be a better time point.

  (2)Right now, I think maybe the FED should perform the "Twist operation" again, the aim is to largely reduce the mortgage rate of old homeowners. In order to help them rebuild their family's balance sheets and to let them have the ability to increase their saving rates. The improvement of saving rate means the long-term confidence restore and it will have its big impact for ordinary mortage-burden families to show their consumption power later. And as Mr. Obama proposes, the tuition for the entry of universities, the medical or law schools, or colleges has its impact for the family's wealth accumulation. The direction is right, but I know the larger part of those subsidies come from each state instead of federal government. It is the power of state instead of the federal government!! The Obama administration has liitle power for the advance education budget allocation instead of the fundings of scholarship. Therefore, a new around coordination between federal government and states becomes an even-harder challenge uncle Sam has to face!! The aim is to increase the saving rate of ordinary American family in coming years and to restore the house price through the new around twist operation seems to be the first choice before another round QE!!

  (3)The right moment for the QE3 may be judgemental as it provide an insurance for the further market downturn, especially for those worries if the long-term down trend has been formed. Of course, the QE3 should be performed before this possible disaster. But from the lately news we gather, it shows that the hot money flows back to the safe heaven of U.S. treasuries market even many countries reduce their holdings of U.S. treasuries to be their currency reservations. American economy is reviving in a slow pace. It just gets better little by little. Not performing QE3 right now is a goold sign for  uncle Sam but bad for other nations, especially those Asian coutires who need the money to support their export production. As the tight situation of global liquidity happens, it will push the good company's stock to be skyhigh and let those not-so-good ones to be a little bit lower than their intrinsic values.This is what we have to worry about. But the Uncle Sam has his bad habits for decades, maybe it is the right time to let him stop using drugs and exercise himeself to get a better shape!! God helps those who help themselves. I believe in God and think God has its way!!

  (4)If uncle Sam can stand on its own feet, then how come we should promote quantitative easing policy now? If uncle Sam know his disease is from his unregular exercises and eating too much, then how come uncle Same wants some special treatments instead of regular exercises? If uncle Sam knows himself more than we did, then how come we are so critical to its own policy implement? All those answers are given by uncle Sam, we have no rights to say anything about it!! The U.S.A. is a great nation because it has reflective attitude to its own problems and it always come out with a not-perfect-but-compromised action!! That is why it is so great!! That is why it needs no QE3 right away!!

   All in all, as the QE3 is an emergency plan, we should not expect too much if it is not in a dire situation. The implementation of QE3 should be the plan B this time instead of the plan A.

Dear Sir:

  People say that you are a good president but not a good leader. I guess you are familiar with that thought before. People think that you should be more deterministic with some actions for your own people. Your kingdom is falling and your people are starving, but it seems nothing you can do about it. Do not cut the benefits for the poor, just try to increase and persuade those men and women inside the congress help you this way. I guess if you have a decent thought and a clear mind, then you know what you have to do. People are not fond of you not because you are too young or too dark, but because people are worrying about your leadership. For the great nation on the earth, there is nothing but a deterministic action you have to take, nothing but a dream you have to give and share for your people. A new American dream and make it happen somehow. Provide some fresh ideas to those ones without jobs or think their hopes just fade away under your knees. You have to encourage people, especially those who are vulnerable with tears these days. You have to share your thoughts and lead the nation without hesitate but maybe in a wordless way. Lead and silence, lead and determinstic, lead without hesitate. It is the only thing people expect you to do, the only way people expect their leader to show.

  If you think your country need a new energy policy, then just do it and adjust them gradually. If you think your country need a high speed railroad, then just give some incentives to others to accompolish it. If you think you have to renew the financial society, then just persuade others to cooperate with. If you think you should rebuild you education system, then just try to set examples for others to follow. There are so many things you can do and you should do. Don't say that you can do nothing about it. Don't complain that everyone is against you. Don't feel pity about who you are or what you are. Just try to stand out and fight for it wordless but with actions. Actions speak lounder than words.

  Hope you can lead your kingdom without hesitate and with deep thoughts. Many people still believe in God and have faith on you. May God bless you and your people.

Hello there:

  這是一個非常困難的問題,因為美國似乎要跟伊朗攤牌,但是不論那個國家都知道伊朗是非常重要的石油輸出國,而國內的石化產業相當程度上面一直都有幫該國提煉石油!!因此美國跟伊朗的關係緊張,對世界的油價也是頗有影響,最糟的是以色列已經不排除對伊朗動武,敘利亞境內已經接近內戰邊緣!!中東情勢的惡劣,勢必讓美國從伊拉克撤退充滿變數!!而美國境內因為自身過高的戰爭支出,以使得自己國內不少兒童出現饑餓的情況,美國境內有超過四千兩百萬人年所得不超過36萬元新台幣,台灣是355萬人,但美國的物價水準是台灣的一倍半以上!!所以其生活是更加困難的!!

  美元不能再貶值了,但這麼高的債務與這麼少的自家儲蓄,最終將使得美元不得不走上貶值之路,對境內的消費與儲蓄,也將是雪上加霜;因為美元的購買力減少,因此以美元為主的消費,名目金額將更為攀高,而美元投資的實質報酬將少得可憐!!這都是美元貶值的壞處!!但美元能強勢嗎??這個問題,坦白說還真不容易回答說!!

  照理說,美元應該走強,讓境內消費好一些,但其債務將因美元升值而更難償還!!而美國可能對伊朗的...也是大家必須考量到的,因為美國將必須再增加戰爭支出才行!!這將使美元進一步走弱,以償還更高的債務水準!!

  向來都是非常支持美國的,一直堅信這樣的國家,終究會找到一條能夠復興自己的道路,但今天我們見到了民主政治的諸多限制,我們見到了其局限與對世界的承諾對自身不好的影響.難道要犧牲掉百姓的幸福拯救世界才是對的??我們也見到其諸多不是很理想的情況!!還是堅信美國人終究會找到一條道路,勇敢前行,勇敢面對自己的未來,並且勇於承認過往的失敗,勇於面對與調整,讓自己的國家重新再站起來!!至少要做到...讓自己的百姓,不再饑餓!!!

Hello there:

  對於美國失業率的降低,其實是不太敢太過樂觀的,因為有31,5000人退出就業市場不再找工作,當然可能是因為年末的緣故!!而美國的就業人數增加也比大家預期的少一點,雖然有120,000人,但是還是比大家期待的150,000人來得少!!只是,我想一點一滴吧!!

  所有的事情都是如此的,美國確實有一點一滴變好了,而美國人也開始儲蓄了,美國的房地產市場也有一些正面的消息,所有的一切都顯示慢慢美國會越來越好,只是這一切可能還是要建構在弱勢美元上面,如此一來美國才可能透過匯率讓企業財報更好看一些!!只是這一切必須建構在美國不會受到未來石油價格大漲的影響,這一點美國就得多留意了!!

  美國人還是很擔心自身的就業問題,特別是自身收入的問題,我想或許能從新興市場股債市價格的重新往上爬升,爾後再透過匯率的轉換調整,讓美國人的投資所得能夠有所增長;最後回饋到消費上面,可能是目前比較好的一種方式!!只是美國的製造業就業人數上月增加不到2000人,也說明了美國還是沒有因為匯率貶值而有製造業就業增加的機會!這倒是跟大家預期不同!!可見美國的技職教育還是有很多待改進的空間了!!不過美國民眾樂於換車,增加其耐久性消費財的消費數量,確實顯示美國人團結希望國家好的一份心!!我想所有的一切只有慢慢調整了,美國人花了三十年將自身的儲蓄耗盡,從全球最大的債權國,搖身一變成為全球最大的債務國!!但是對世界其他跟其貿易往來的國家來說,其他國家的生活水準都因為如此而提升了,我們也不例外!!只是過度消費確實不應該是國家轉變的好現象,美國人確實該慢慢重拾儲蓄的習慣!!這幾天在新北市的中永和,很清楚的見到處處新開的早餐店生意興隆,這就是拜我們的國民有儲蓄的習慣所致,而且大家都知道要將投資跟儲蓄分清楚,因此手邊有閒錢,才能支持這些新冒出頭的早餐店,這是好現象!!也再次說明了儲蓄的重要!!感覺上老美就是少了這個,花太多錢在其他地方了,以致很多老百姓已經出現吃不飽的情況,說來美國還是需要一些更大的轉變才行!!但Obama害怕得罪人,害怕自己變成另一個JFK,所以很多事情就變得不是很有決斷力,但是誠如Mr. Obama所說,他拒絕一生都活在恐懼當中!!因為得罪了這些人,可能是一輩子都遭到追殺的,可見美國總統也沒多厲害,有點可悲!!所以,說來說去...真的是...還是...少說為妙了!!

  附記:那天,...老美一聽我說我覺得自己也是Chinese時,老美快昏倒了!!對此我想我是有點生氣,因為我的國家在老美的各大公司中都已經被寫成"Taiwan, a province of China"(包含Kaplan Schweser說!!),想來有點小生氣,想問它們說,那個China是Republic of China??還是People's R.O.C.??大家都知道他們的隱喻不是嗎??!!!!!我知道他們問我是哪裡來的,希望我回答我是Taiwanese,我想我本來就是,只是我也是Chinese!! an old-fashioned Chinese who can read the old-fashioned Chinese characters!!因為對岸的那些,大約已經根本讀不懂"正體字"了!!當然我也會看得懂簡體字啦!!因為他們的簡體字還蠻好笑的!!有點亂來說!!很早我們就有在學他們的簡體字了!!當然正體字是比較優美與有意境的,這可是我們文化上的優勢說!!可惜這些老美是一點都搞不懂的!!只知道PRC的人是Chinese,不知道ROC才代表中國的五千年正統文化說!!因為我們這專出犬儒的,中國大陸那裏文革後,就沒見過這個品種了!!不好意思,我也是犬儒喔!!

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  其實我寫這篇文章是沒有得到我的未婚妻的授權!!所以下面只代表個人意見!!

  因為這個歐盟的問題是非常複雜的,特別是又跟很多國家近百年來之間的糾葛有關時,簡單的說就族群之間,你看不起我,我也沒見到你多好的情境一再出現,因此就有人變成代罪羔羊!!巴爺爺因為衍生性金融商品交易賠大錢,我們見到了市場中...因為沒有足夠的交易對手,連巴菲特爺爺都因此而受到很大的傷害,因為衍生性金融商品市場中,早因太多投資銀行倒閉,而產生初沒有足夠的交易者的現象,看來這些投資銀行自相殘殺的結果,竟然是市場中沒有足夠的交易者,也沒有足夠的交易資金來支持這個市場,外加美國現在正在執行Volker Rule與Dodd-Frank Act,因此使得衍生性商品市場未見管制其利,反受流動性不足之害!!這也是共和黨反對民主黨,以為其錯誤管理的主要原因!!只是美國金融市場的問題,不見得是管理不當,有可能是因為美國人自身的儲蓄不足,因此無法支撐起這個市場所致!!

  而歐洲的問題,盤根錯節,主要原因當然是因為社會福利太好,而歐元又過度高估所致,原因來自於歐元主要的持有與財富累積者為德法諸國,挾著科技與產業的優勢,使得歐洲自身交易與貿易的大多好處都流向這幾個國家,但其他國家反而因為歐元太貴,而影響到自身的出口與和世界其他國家的貿易!!坦白說,我是非常衷心的期待希臘退出歐元區,而且以為希臘該效法阿根廷,讓自身債務違約,然後重新再去協商,讓當初賺得其貿易財的這些國家,重新去思考過往十幾年以來,從希臘那裡所取得的各種好處,也該是回饋給希臘的時候了!!而希臘也不該在這麼慵懶的過日子了!中國老百姓的退休金是自己慢慢一點一點存的,新加坡與台灣老百姓也是如此的,沒人能夠這麼要求政府的!!

  義大利與其他國家,其實也是如此的!!中國大陸在過往幾個世代中所受到的委屈與屈辱,也該是有人好好去計算一下的時候了!!我想這也是其他弱小民族在歐洲飽受苦難的過往中,很多人都覺得該是追討與要求賠償的時刻了!!我知道或許這才是這次歐債背後最大的原因,因為過往兩次的世界大戰會在歐洲出現,其實也是因為歐洲各國非常自以為是的策略,最終導致其他弱小民族的傷害與傷痛!!

  在過往的歷史當中,美國人替中國蓋了清華,美國人幫了中國對抗日本,美國人幫了台灣,讓自由民主的種子能夠在本地發芽茁壯,這些都是美國人幫的忙!!因此不論是中國還是台灣,對於美國的協助都是心存感激的!!我們一天到晚說台灣錢淹哪裡,說穿了也是美元的匯聚,使得我們的貨幣供給量同步放大所致!!這些那些,都還是與美元有關!!只是不可否認的,雙A品牌在歐洲是有自身的利益的,這也是我們期待與歐洲的貿易能夠帶來工作與財富的累積,但歐洲目前的情況確實是因為很多很多過往歷史的累積所造成,歐元需要進一步走貶,以及歐洲需要更多的儲蓄,特別是那些花錢花得多的國家人民,特別需要自己儲蓄而不是依賴國家的力量!!這些都是歐洲必須調整的地方!!

  關於這些,我想中國大陸最多就是透過投資德法與其他信評高國家的公債,來間接幫助歐洲,或許那是中國唯一能做的事情吧!!

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   其實在美國做總統是沒有甚麼好威風的!因為每天都要被政敵攻擊與責怪!很多人都怪美國從2008年末以來採用的寬鬆貨幣政策,特別是本地的電子類股廠商,但是弱勢美元確實是讓美國人徹底的醒了,只是也凸顯出美元過往如果不強勢,世界其他國家可能也難有非常大的經濟發展與突破,特別是中國的部分!!因此在這裡真的得拜託中國兩件事情,一件當然是能夠參與歐洲重建的話盡量幫忙,對於歐洲希望透過發行債券來融通的這件事情,看在過往歐洲對中國的出口也是非常有貢獻的,基於禮尚往來的精神,盡量參與有高信評的擔保債券認購;另一件自然是希望中國能夠重新思考自身的貨幣政策,中國在降低通膨上面確實有很大的用力,相對上已經讓房價開始下跌了,這是好事,但廠商貸不到款項活下去也是事實,感覺上現在的中國,除了政治上面不自由民主外,其實其經濟策略倒像是西方了,因為採用的是自由競爭自行生存之道!!而美國人目前卻相當依賴美國政府給予的補助,因為美國人有四千多萬人年薪不超過一萬兩千美元,大約是三十六萬新台幣左右!!最後對於中國還有一件很重要的拜託,那就是兩岸的投資保障協定,能不能請中國真的幫忙給予一些協助,特別是台商借人頭投資與台商人身與財產安全的保護,我知道有點強中國所難,因為地方政府的權力很大,中央鞭長莫及,但還是拜託中國能夠多協助與幫忙台商,特別是那些做小生意的人!!

  政黨政治目前的困境大家都見到了,美國必須做的不是削減開支,因為美國還未脫離險境,美國需要的是更進一步的財政支出與幫助美國人重建自身資產負債表,這是大家都知道的事情,也是不得不去努力之處!!但美國因為各種利益團體的交相傾尬,美國目前面臨到非常困難的難題!!據說美國人的401K目前的帳戶價值相較於數年之前,已經大減50%左右,特別是那些股票部位多的投資帳戶!!可見美國沒有了儲蓄之後,美國人此時確實是連自身退休都面臨到的非常大的難題!!一切的重建都需要時間慢慢一點一滴!!此時新興市場的股市與經濟成長,對美國就無比重要了,如何維繫這些市場繼續發展下去,就變成是美國的重要課題!!

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   其實美國民主黨向來都是支持強勢美元的策略的,但是很奇怪的到了Obama政府時代,因為覺得債務比重太高了,因此決定遵循國際貿易理論的學理,讓美元一點一點的貶值,一來調節自身債務,再者也能夠強化出口或者是促進大家去美國旅遊!!這個策略本質上是沒錯,但是美國過往依賴強勢美元的消費動能對全球是非常重要的,一旦美元走貶是趨勢,甚至使得過往長期均衡被打破,都可能產生非常重大的影響,因為美國主導全球電子產品走向的主導權將消失,也好在市場終於了解到這件事情的重要,因此開始讓美元升值一點,去找尋新的匯率均衡點!!

  美國這次調整不好的主要原因不在美元貶值,而在沒能順勢說服廠商回美國投資生產,也沒能像德國一般強化自身勞工技術的水準,使得美國產品有足夠差異化的特性,有足夠吸引大家購買的動力,美國過往在影像媒體的部分,還是強項,電影電視就是一例!只是那是Obama能做的嗎??很多人以為要不是Clinton大力鼓吹海外設廠投資,今天美國也不會沒有製造業了!只是除此之外,美國就再也沒有其他吸引人的了,美國服務業的利得,都是建構在壓榨海外生產者上面,不論是Wall Mart還是Apple都是如此,但Wall Mart到最後還是透過降低企業成本,變相減少員工薪資來達到獲利的目標!!說來說去美國勞工也佔不到甚麼便宜!!既然如此,那又何必走弱勢美元策略!!美國也沒因匯率貶值而有債務降低的情況,反倒使得自身消費降低,影響到相關服務業的就業!!說來說去,Obama政府真的是很讓人搖頭!不過再過來即便共和黨執政,也可能面臨相同的困境!

  歐美調整的過程可能需要一個到兩個世代,簡單說可能需要長達十年以上的時間!!國際經濟學理中一定沒有美國目前這個個案,因為沒有一個國家長期貨幣強勢而債務比重這麼高的!當然可能英國目前也是的!!只是...這跟當初的東協在1997年時有何差別??特別是美國目前幾乎是沒有製造業了!靠免費的強勢美元來消費嗎?或許本地的電子業是這麼期望的!!最重要的是美國跟日本一樣是財富集中度高的國家,貧富差距大的地方,因此印鈔之後可能還是只幫助有錢人多,對窮人幫助少,因為政府沒跟著調整所得分配的問題,外加匯率貶值與薪水不漲,老百姓的購買力只會更低,因此將更難累積財富!!這個邏輯與所得有一定水準,因此有錢投資非美元資產來累積財富,賺取海外匯差與資本利得的國際財務理論,是完全不合的,因為只有有錢人能做這件事情!!因為沒有一個國家債務比這麼高,且窮人這麼窮,還敢用弱勢貨幣政策的,但好像又不得不用,因此只能在所得分配著手,賺得多有能力的人多照顧賺得少沒能力的人!!只有Obama,因為相信學者,所以用了這個不是很合理的笨方法,筆者多年都說過美元可能不適合走弱勢策略,其實...就是...考量到消費力的緣故,只是美國也沒因為旅遊量大而...因為美國人正在反恐當中,更不可能歡迎外人大量旅遊了!!這也與弱勢美元政策是相違背的!!只是一旦美國人知道後,我想終究會想辦法調整過來的!

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  美國共和黨希望Obama政府能夠對很多事情進一步鬆綁,希望透過鬆綁,美國企業上兆美元的資金就會回流,特別是在企業稅上面,但是這裡面透露出了一些矛盾點,特別是美國目前的經濟成長遲緩,企業可能更不敢投資美國了,拿錢回美國對企業不見得是好的!!在金融海嘯之前,GE因為自己的GE capital,已經在美國的商用不動產市場與其他相關租賃方面賠了大錢,元氣大傷,好不容易這幾年整理一下之後,才又恢復元氣,企業有前車之鑑,希望企業做這做那的,實在是不太可能!!因此美國絕對不是鬆綁,因為過度自由只會讓擁有特定資訊的人上下其手,賺取更高的報酬,但對整體社會與全部群眾來說,卻不見得是有利的!!

  適當的管理與管制,相當程度上面,目標是在維持一個公平競爭的環境,不會讓有特定資訊者,循著特定的交易方式,謀取社會上其他的暴利,而這些暴利背後的代價,是全體美國人必須承擔的!!那才是管理與管制的目的呀!!如同大家知道的....This is a broken system right now!!Mr. Obama tries hard to fix it!!But those ones who try to keep their benefits do not want him to change this wrong course!!So the pain goes to ordinary people instead of wealthy ones as they really know how to follow. But those information-poor ones have to take the burden of the society and have to pay a lot for those wrong doings!!!

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  美國共和黨總統候選人競爭目前已經白熱化了!!Mr. Cain提出的9-9-9政策,顯然是非常受到有錢人士的歡迎的,但是9-9-9政策雖然簡單好記,也確實符合Simple tax code原則,但相當程度上面卻非常違反經濟學裡面的Incentive mechanism,因為當初採用progressive tax rate and diminishing incremental wealth tax rate的原因,讓有資金者提供就業機會給沒錢但有才能的人,如果都採用flat-tax rule,固然確實會擴大稅基的繳交人數,但相對上面課稅的困難度還是會提高!!當初美國會這麼依賴消費稅的原因,就在於它簡單可行,滿足simple governing rule,因為所有的稅賦都在您完成消費之後伴隨在帳單當中!!爾後如果有需要退稅,個人再憑消費憑證去辦理退稅!!只是9-9-9政策可能造成的現象,確實有可能使得稅率很低的有錢人,也能多繳一點稅,只是這樣的情境其實發生機率不大,如果一定要用9-9-9政策,還不如11-11-11政策或許比較可行!!最重要的是很多窮人根本連自己都養不活的,結果還要繳9%的稅,說起來也不是很公平吧!!

  以台灣本地為例,政府現在在做的也有那麼一點head-tax的味道,但是我們的健保還是採用progressive tax with diminishing-incremental- wealth-tax-rate rule,特別是我們設計的二代健保門檻,讓高資產階級所需要支付的金額有其上限(upper limit),以免未來永無止境的膨脹上去!!目前全世界確實都開始思考,如何將企業端過往所需要支付的醫療與退休給付,慢慢轉換給專責單位,因為不論是醫療還是退休,未來都可能因為通貨膨脹等因素,而負擔越來越重,那時即便是百年級的企業,都可能因為這兩個原因而出現破產的可能!!這是美國必須再去思考與調整的!!

  All in all, Simple tax code, simple governing rule still can work in the USA. But it depends on how to implement it. Not just lips service!!!

Hello there:

  我知道我專門說大家不中意聽的,但是光想到美國境內已經有超過一千五百萬人失業,我想沒人不想這個經濟問題快點得到解決!!而我的想法很簡單,那就是如何讓過往很像是臨時工性質的工作,能夠轉換成常態性質的工作,最好的方法就是改革美國的醫療與退休制度,減輕企業在這方面的負擔,將醫療與員工退休轉換到專職的其他單位,讓企業的資金負擔與雇用員工的動機能夠更為明確!!

  以新興國家為例,它們會這麼願意雇用員工,不外乎其薪資低,且沒有這麼多的醫療與退休準備的負擔,但歐美先進國家對於員工的醫療與退休保障,其規定是繁雜的,也因此使得企業在歐美各地雇用員工時,多有所考量,因此造成從2009年以後美國政府花了很多很多的錢,但卻創造出很少很少的工作機會,主因就在於複雜的醫療與退休制度,如果美國肯重新思考這方面的問題,將醫療與退休各自由各州來進行改革,比如Calpers就是個退休金管理的典範!!而醫療的部分,則是部分由聯邦政府來管理,但各州還是能保有非常大的權利,以免違反的美國的憲法制度與精神!!最重要的是,美國必須讓企業願意多雇用員工,甚至是願意讓製造業能夠回到美國,那要如何創造出企業雇用的比較利益(comparative advantage of employment),特別是製造業工作的比較利益(manufacture job's comparative advantage)!!我想美國人自己也知道那是非常不容易的,因為中國大陸人能夠不吃飯不睡覺的趕工完成工作,只為了餬口,而美國人可能會花很多時間去抗議,而不願自己加班來保住工作!!光是人權的議題,在中國就是不被以為該是阻礙生產製造的原因,雖然近年來確實有不少的加薪,但相對於美國來說,中國很多百姓一年的薪資,可能不到美國人一個月的薪資!!這是不容忽略的事實!!也是美國製造(made in USA)這麼困難的原因!!因此連本地的7A央行總裁都說,美國目前製造業的問題不是匯率(exchange rate),而是貿易條件(Term of trade)部分,特別是比較利益與自身產業特色的問題!!

  也因為如此,美國就剩下了服務業為主的就業機會了,特別是金融業,很多時候都需要大量的資訊,而能夠取得第一手資料與第一手服務的人,其實多是金字塔頂端的富豪,因此就出現了資訊不對稱,有時甚至變成是透過特定金融報告的來糾集富人群的資金,利用金融市場剝削窮人資產的情況,最終造成即便有良善的金融市場,但參與者所擁有的財富卻呈現相當不平均的現象!!也好在有共同基金與ETF等金融商品,窮人也才比較有公平參與市場的機會!!但這些投資還是必須源自於工作機會與收入是源源不絕才行!!在目前美國失業率這麼高的情況下,美國諸多工會又這麼拔扈的情境下,連NBA都不比賽了,試問又哪裡有新的就業機會呢??我想美國是被自己人與自身錯誤的制度給害死的,是美國特定工會害死美國的,是美國這些製造業的大老闆害死美國的,實在怪不得別人!!

  同樣地,美國富人繳的稅少是事實,中產階級負擔重也是事實!!而國會卻置之不理,也是事實!!我想Mr. Obama說的是對的,這不是階級戰爭,但卻是讓從社會得到非常多的利益者,能夠多負擔一點,能夠多回饋給社會的........正常制度建立!!(It is not a class warfare,but a fair share responsible!!)

Hello there:

  當初全世界都以為只有美國有問題,一直都以美國的次貸做題目來大書特書,其實我一直以為那是有心人士的陽謀,因為為何沒有另一個機制,能夠在很多避險基金做空地產類金融商品的同時,又有另一群人是看多的??照道理應該要有這群人的出現呀!美國必須想辦法讓自己的房地產價格止跌了,因為坦白說日本花了二十年下跌到的程度,美國只花了不到三年就做到了,這裡面其實也透露出了美國金融市場是比較會過度反應的,過猶不及!!美國地產已經出現超跌的現象了,以美國目前的環境與各方面生活條件,其實並不比其他歐洲國家來的差,但歐洲的地產也沒有美國跌這麼多,可見是資金未能及時湧入地產與相關產業的原因,我一直以為是房貸利率不夠低,但後來發現其實追根就底還是美國人沒有錢了,因此未能支持過往昂貴的房價,外加銀行對於消費者的信用進行緊縮,因此使得美國人更沒有能力買房!!關於這點美國必須快一點想出能夠讓房價止跌的有效作法,讓美元升值是一個重點,但整體經濟結構必須調整到讓新資金能夠願意重新投入,而不擔心繼續下跌的風險!!只是服務業增加了85,000人正說明了美元升值的好處,因為美元升值,一來增加了美國人的購買力,再來因為美國人購買了很多商品都是需要服務人員與售後產品的服務,因此也使得服務業必須雇用更多的員工!!

  有趣的是從這次歐洲問題也印證了過往我的論述,美國人的QE,QE2,其實除了幫助自己以外,最大的受益者其實是英國與其他歐洲文明國家,但是這次歐債問題的出現,正好彰顯了歐元貨幣發行量的不足,主因當然是過往歐洲非常重視通膨,因此在通膨與失業率之間,選擇了控制通膨!!如今因為失業率實在太高了,因此決定選擇失業率的降低,但卻是以通膨急速升高作為其代價,原因是必須讓自身的債務,其背後的實質購買力大幅降低,以減輕自身的債務壓力!!簡單的說就是增加貨幣供給來支應債息與本金的支付!!而英國願意冒著通膨率更高的風險,去進行自己的QE2,坦白說是非常大膽且進步的做法,因為連日本都不敢這麼作,當初日本進入衰退的二十年當中,一直都擔心過度的通貨膨脹會出現,但最後都證明其始終未能擺脫通貨緊縮的情境,因此這次英國是決定要製造出更大的通貨膨脹,來保障自己國家能夠免於永無止境的債務循環,以及透過貨幣供給量的大增來擺脫經濟衰退的事實!!關於這點,其實中國已經證明了這是有效的了!!當然歐洲與英國在這個部分,還必須配合貨幣的貶值,這點中國倒是很難做到,因為在進出口的貿易上面,確實是有點太過頭了!!

  不過這次歐洲與英國的QE,確實是比較好的對策,而且美國不跟著進行QE也是對的,因為它必須讓市場有機會針對這些QE慢慢去回應與反應,如此一來這些國家的QE才會有效果!!對此,我想沒人會說這樣是不好的,只是會擔心效果能否如大家的預期而已!!

Hello there:

  美國最近的資訊揭露了九月份的就業人數增加了103,000人,比起八月份的就業人數只有57,000人來說,實在是非常好的數據,但是這裡面有將近50,000人是電訊類事業的員工回雇,因此相當程度上面說明了,美國科技產業,特別是手機產業,的創新,終究還是帶動了新的就業或是舊有失去就業的回復!!但是美國的製造業在九月份也失去了13,000人的工作機會,可見廠商不見得以為美元這波的升值對製造業的雇用是有幫助的,因為美國人的消費不足,使得很多的消費買的多是海外生產!因此美元升值使得其購買力增加,大家自然會買海外便宜的商品!

  這裡面也說明了一件非常重要的事情,那就是美國始終都沒有正視自身PC產業的創新不足,或許美國人該想一下是不是該有另外一套Operation system來與Microdoft做對抗,一來吸引全球的目光,二來也能夠透過新作業系統的出現,使得一直再提倡的cloud calculation能夠有更進一步或更新的發展,三來也能透過新作業系統的出現,重新去整合與讓人更便利使用目前方興未艾的Twitter,FaceBook與其他的社群網路功能!!美國在這個部分還需要一個比較像樣的大革命,因為Microsoft目前還能夠賺錢的已經不再是作業系統,而是Office!!因此是否有另一種辦公文書系統能夠出現,並且想辦法補足Office的不足之處??又或者有甚麼精簡版本的出現,來使得辦公文書系統更為好用??總之關於PC與NB等產業的相關應用,在某些層面上已經到了必須再重新創新一次的地步!!否則很難有新工作的出現,因為所有美國過往的創新,其生產都已經大量移往海外了,除了軟體生產外,大多不在美國當地生產,因此新創新的出現,將使得新產品可以在美國當地先生產,透過讓美國人先試用與改進的過往發展步驟,一步一步地使得消費者開始重新重視美國生產,也同時吸引全球目光於美國的科技產業上面!!