目前分類:美國的轉變 (216)

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My Dear American Friends:

  The Red China does these days to the Africa is the same as you did it to the South America. I still remember the Brady bond creation is try to solve the bad loans that U.S. banks made to those countries of Latin America. But it turns out to be the best investment in the decade. It just shows how great American people contribute to those countries of Latin American because Latin American nations pay down all their bills and their higher inflation is largerly reduced. The most important thing is the lives imporving and living standard upgrade. It shows even the States uses those QEs to help itself, it also makes those countries feel better. Argentina still can not stand on its own feet but Brazil already becomes the fourth or the fifth nation with largest foreign (currency) reserves. It just shows the trend of higher food price and higher oil price does bring wealth. 

  So the USA has to follow the trend because it has great volumes of food production. It needs to trade its productions to those nations with larger foreign (currency) reserve. Brazil uses less oil reserve for its own consumption and those oil reserve is used to accumulate its foreign (currency) reserve. We already know American people need decent jobs and those jobs can bring more wealth accumulation and more stable financial system and even better US financial markets if American people can accumulate lots of money in your society. It is not a vicious circle but a good cycle as American people get employed and accumulate their wealth all over again like used to be. But all those things are based on the strong output and export of the States. It just need American people to think HARD what kind of output you want to produce which is valuable to the rest of the world. We see a big improvement of the States and we all expect to see some greater progress for the employment of the States. BUT it needs time and market mechanism. American is the great nation because it respects the nature of supply and demand. You respect the science and you always try to improve the way of thinking you have. That is the reason why you are a great nation. 

  Idea or philosophy does drive the world for those years. Those innovative ways to resolve the malfunction of market make us believe the USA will eventually get out of the wood but just needs a longer period of times than others think. This time you have to solve all those issues all at once. You have to increase your people's wealth and reduce the unemployment both. So it does need a lot of time. 

  You have to renew your nation and rebuild several new ways of living that we have not dared to dream of. The life style has changed these days as the States becomes more energy independent. The way of thinking has changed a lot also when Americans try to fix those mistakes who made in last decades. I still believe the flexibility Americans have will bring some good things to others. You know the reason behind that the Red China brings two millions people to Africa and makes many loans to African nations is due to the jobs creation for their own people. It is the thing American people should follow as you did it before in the South America. 

  Believe those tradings between nations bring prosper and jobs is all you have to do. American people should try hard to increase bilateral trade with those African nations or others in order to increase the possibility of its own employment. It seems to be an easy way for American people to reduce the unemployment rate than to create something new for others to consume or invest.


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My Dear American people:

  It is time to think hard about the job issue, a question about "TWELVE MILLION JOBS". Let's us think hard about the issue. The last time you face the bubble issue of stock market and property is around the WW I and the WW II, the solution to the issue is waitng others fighting to the death and pick up the war industries to end the war and use the savings from the people of Americans to coordinate with the rest of the world for the peace and prosper. There are two important points out there, one is the savings the world only has at the time ( that is the States) and the other is the war industries for the production to form a money creation cycle. Now the money creation is from the QEx BUT the production increasing is not yet to be seen in the States. So the question becomes how to increase the production in the States and in what form. These days we often mention about the issue of healthcare but we neglect the issue of huge deficit the States has. The debt has big impact to the States as it makes you to pay more than 15 cents when you make a dollar. Or the number is even wore than I thought. It becomes the headache when you want to contribute a lot to your own healthcare. 

  The burden of debt may have its big impact for the growth of US as too much dollars and fortune creation from the States is used to pay down or just to pay the interest instead of principal(of the US debt). I guess the States has to consider let some weak and can-not-afford debts to default and get into the process of restructuring. It is the only way to reduce the burden and increase the ability for all the debt the States can be paid down. Of course, you have to consider the problem that Europe faces. And several QEs do help Europe countries for their financial problem when the dollar gets weaker makes investors to look for higher yield of Euro. And the QE3 still does help the problem of European crisis. The weak currency of the US dollar does reduce some burden of US debt, but it is just not enough to you. the States needs to default some of your debts. So you have to renegotiate with your debtors about the issue of debt restructuring. It is time to face the problem.

  The way you think these days is to redistribute the wealth of your own nation has through the tax code adjustment or tuning. Let the rich people donate more to reduce the national debt is the must-be. But it also creates the hate-and-love issue of class war. So you have to be careful to the solution.

  Back to the first question we ask about the "TWELVE MILLION JOBS" issue. From the story of last great depression the States faces, it does not solve by itself but from others-the World Wars. It just can have the same situation this time as we can not expect the other world war anymore. Because it may mean the war between China and US. I know it is absolutely impossible and just can not happen this time. So you have to face the problem of how to make money from the need of mainland China when it is your big debtor and how to grow your nation from the trade with China for your own job and fortune creation. It is the issue you have to think hard. There are millions of people who earns their living less than USD 520 a month in China. The salary of the middle class's wage per person is around USD 500 to 550 in the mainland China. So if you can not make it that much, can you trade with South Eastern nations or Latin American nations? I know Mr. Obama and secretary Clinton make a lot of contributions to this issue.

  If all those just can not get so well, the last and foremost way is the fortune creation of your own nation. Make everyone believe those products or services do worth what they show. We see the rising tide of technology of the States in 2000. We are eager to see the biotechnology or some new medical treatments or new technology you can contribute to the States or the rest of world. But all those are based on the increasing savings of American people or another round of QE for the bill. I guess we can not expect the latter one. So this time the issue you have to face seems to be the one that of how to increase the savings without hurting the consumption your society needs.


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 Hello there:

   美國已經進到新一輪的調整階段了!!大家有沒有注意到AIG的股權已經全部用當初去市場收購的價格賣回給金融市場了,大家有沒有注意到Citi Bank的股票也大部份都用原來收購的價格賣回給市場了,大家有沒有注意到GM的股票也是循著相同的方式慢慢都賣回到市場當中,我當初說過了世界上有經驗的財務金融專家大多是美國高等教育的產物,只有美國能夠處理這麼複雜的金融問題!!

  Geithner先生與Bernanke先生都有自己的理念,Geithner先生主導了美國金融機構在西元2008年的合併,為了是金融機構的生存,未來美國將再繼續做的是仿效Glass Stegall法案與反托拉斯法案,慢慢將這些大型的金融機構拆解成小型的金融機構,因為目前美國仍受限於自身財政的困窘,所以只能透過Frank-Dodd法案一點一點去進行,目標就是完成現代版的Glass Stegall Act,將大型金融機構拆解成專業的小型金融機構,但是前提是美國的金融市場需要更多的資金與胃容,而這些資金的來源要不就是來自於全世界的投資者,要不就是美國自身的儲蓄大幅度增加,因此美國製造出足夠的美元部位,相當程度上面是為了美國未來的復甦做準備,一來美國的金融市場面貌會大幅度的改變,很多中小型的金融機構必須浮現與大型金融機構競爭,因此美國現代版的Glass Stegall Act,我們所熟知的Frank-Dodd Act,就必須對於中小型金融機構進行某種程度的保護,保護其受到大型金融機構的高度競爭,其實這也是Basel III的用意,它主要的目標在於提高大型金融機構的資金成本與交易成本;主要希望大型機融機構如果要降低這些成本,必須自己進行瘦身,讓專業部門分拆出去,以避免日本近二十年以來的慘況;再者金融機構小型化有助於美國金融產業的就業,相當程度上面金融業能夠吸納更多的人投入產業當中自然有助於美國失業率問題的解決!!

  日本近二十年以來就是讓大型金融機構彼此交叉持股或合併,我們也見到了日幣在大幅貶值之後不得不大幅度升值,原因就在於金融機構無法找到價值儲存的地方,而新興市場經過了1997年金融風暴與2000年美國網路泡沫化,都使得日本更不敢將財富儲存在新興市場之中,只敢放在歐洲美國這些當時較為先進國家,但是也因為這些國家的金融市場胃容是有限的,而且這些國家的金融機構有自己賺錢的道理,日幣最終還是必須以升值的方式來保存日本人的資產,外加日本的金融市場不夠開放也不夠透明,連帶導致了日本金融機構根本沒有甚麼創新,日本金融機構的投資只是不斷購買日本自身的公債與透過日幣升值來保值,結果是使得日本的金融產業一點一點的死去,保險公司無法透過投資海外獲利,而銀行也無法透過放款給企業來獲利!

  我們見到了金融機構的不進步與創新使得日本一步步走向敗亡,原因就在於日本人的觀念落後與不夠開放,最重要的是日本始終不肯開放自身的金融市場,無法讓日本股市來承載更多財富的累積,也使得日本企業的價值長期偏低與被忽略,連帶使得日本企業在募集資金上面需要比較高的成本!!這些種種都說明了很多時候一個國家背後觀念的重要,最終我們見到了日本很多的保險公司終究還是以倒閉作收,原因就在於未能讓金融機構真正的國際化與有相當高的競爭力所致;這是美國與全世界其他國家該引以為鑑的,大型化的金融機構對於美國社會是有害而無利的!!

  因為中小型的金融機構比較會進行鑽營的活動,對於金融市場效率性與資訊傳遞的正面影響比較大,反觀大型金融機構可以透過彼此勾結與私下交易不由地傷害到自身的金融秩序,那是美國過往無法避免的災難,該是停止這些永無止境的時候了!!Geithner先生是非常聰明的領導人,我想當初金融機構的合併是他的意見,再過來他也必須想辦法讓這些金融機構重新拆解成幾個專業化夠深的金融機構,這是美國未來必須努力的方向!!

  要讓美國人總體的薪資水準增加,要不就是美元繼續貶值到增強出口,要不就是美國自身的產業再升級,但是要美國的產業升級需要美國人的儲蓄支持,如今美國的儲蓄是不足的,因此美元貶值創造出口似乎是唯一一條路,當然也能夠透過美國自身重新掌握美國人自身消費產品多為美國製造著手,但是美國的人工成本昂貴,外加美國非常重視人權退休等保障,因此美國企業先天上就面臨到跟世界其他同類型公司極為不平等的競爭,因為中國的企業過往並沒有關於員工退休的保障,當然目前中國的勞動合同法剛上路,但要發酵也要一段時間,而很多廠商早已移到東協各國生產,因此製造業的部分美國企業還是面臨了諸多不公平的競爭,除非美國能夠做到產業分工,有哪些部分是在其他地區生產,那些部分是美國利用自動化的設備來替代人力,人力的需求必須是屬於附加價值高的製造流程監控等方面,才可能使得這些製造工人的薪資相對是較高的,這是美國人未來必須花很多年去想破頭的地方,這是美國的再工業化必須走的路!!另外也能要求在美國銷售的廠商一定比重的生產放在美國本土,就像Toyota等日本公司一般!!

  金融市場的轉型部份,自然是重建世界對於股票市場的信心,股票市場的信心對美國來說在於對於自身成長型公司的信心,美國大部分的企業多歸類為成長型,即便是Buffet先生投資的高股息公司,很多公司都是有高度成長性的,美國向來是成長型股票的投資國家!!但是今天大眾對於成長型公司失去了信心,說實在的根本原因就在於大家對於願意購買這些高單價商品的消費者來源有疑慮,過往美國人願意將自身的消費用來購置這些高單價的商品,如今美國的貧富差距過大,太多人都無法負擔這些創新的商品,自然美國近幾年都是比較屬於價值型與短期能見到高營運現金流量的投資,因此高現金股利的公司是較受青睞,而過往的高成長公司相對上就比較吃虧,大家看Apple的股價變動就知道,很多人都以為Apple要再成長就不容易了,因為能支持Apple的消費者就這麼多,太多人想買Apple的產品都會被Apple的高單價所驚嚇,最終跑去買其他同類的低價產品,因此如何增加美國人的所得就變成是Obama政府必須再思考的地方,這也是美國目前成長型公司的價值增長所遇到的瓶頸,如果所得不增加將使得美國的科技類股找不到發揮的空間,因為服務價格與產品的單價高才可能使這些公司有繼續成長的動能!!而近來因為美國要開始全民健保,才使得美國的中小型生技醫療類股與健康看護的照護中心等股票,找到了股價大漲的理由,我想這也算是一個很好的開端!!只是科技類股的漲跌,相當程度需要美國有足夠的信心這些公司的成長性能夠持續,要不就是透過外銷來成長,要不就是透過內銷來成長,這是美國必須在新的一年仔細思考的問題!!

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My Dear American fellows:

  It is time to face the music that USA can not go on like that anymore. You have to face a larger deficit cutting or just let the fiscal cliff help you. It may not be a bad thing to face the fiscal cliff as everyone knows how hard it can be, it will show that it is just not to be that way because everyone is preparing for it ALREADY.I do not believe someone will wait and see him/herself falling down into the valley without having a parachute. Because you can not make up your mind how to cut and what segment or part should be trimmed down, the health care or the military force or something else. All those choices just make you annoy even more. So just let the fiscal cliff solve it for you and do not hesitate to solve it because you have no idea which part should be fine tuned.So just Relax and give yourself a big holiday. Take your time and make decisions later. Take some rest and leave the part to God just for a while. Compromise is all you have to do. But we all know that it just can not be done in one or two days. So just let it be, face the financial cliff and see how hard it can be. Then adjust or accommodate it step by step as it just happens.

  The second issue you face is the worry of inflation. I have repeatly to say that it is a fake issue. As everyone knows US dollar is the international currency. It will find its way to the most productive business and the most valuable investment. So you have not to worry about the inflation BUT the DEFLATION. As the US dollars flow out even more when the FED to buy lots of MBSs or CMOs. It just shows how American people or other people who own a lot of US dollars do not want to use them in the States. We both know that INFLATION is ALWAYS and EVERYWHERE a MONETARY PHENONMENON. It is an old saying of Milton Friedman. It still does. So if the production activities can not be revived or regain its ground in the States, you just can not expect greenbacks back to the USA and it will just stay outside the nation to seek its rent. So the inflation can not be recognized or found in the States just shows that you still live in the danger of DEFLATION instead of inflation. It is a living proof we learn from Japan and it still does!! So if we can see the dramtic increase inflation happening in the States, it is not a bad news but a good one because it just shows the GREENBACK is BACK... And the production activities are increasing in the States as people bring a lot of US dollars back for business. So....

  Be patient and have a lovely holiday. It will just be fine!!Do your best and leave the rest to GOD...


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Hello there:

  我想我又得要提醒大家了!!在西元2008年美國第一次選出黑人總統Obama之前,雷曼兄弟投資銀行倒閉之前,美國的殖利率曲線根本透露不出美國有任何的問題,直到雷曼兄弟倒閉時,美國的AIG才赫然發現自己已經將要倒閉,而當時美國的另一個大企業GE,也同時面對到非常大的流動性風險!!當時不論是Harvard還是Yale,旗下的endowment foundations都還在大量進行借錢投資的遊戲,也就是俗稱的Leverage,因此手中的現金部位是負值,大部分的錢都投入在房地產或是與房地產有關的資產上面,只是過往美國的學理卻完全忽略掉了-西元2008年是美國不動產在過往數十年之間價格最高的時候,任何腦袋清醒的人,包含Bill Gross都知道該做的是放空房地產相關指數,而不是大量投資與地產相關的避險基金或私募基金上,最終那兩年,西元2008-2009年,不論是Harvard還是Yale的基金會都損失掉了超過25%的總資產,也使得Harvard與Yale面臨到有史以來從未發生過的開支緊縮與學費上漲!!

  回顧當時,Harvard的主要操盤手S先生,即便是到後來都以為不該投資美國的債券市場,特別是公司債與債信不佳的高收益債券,但卻特別偏好避險基金與私募基金,只是當時避險基金與私募基金因為金融市場比重的緣故,都將非常多的資金放在不動產上面或與不動產有關的投資上面,這點連當時的GE capital都是如此的,只是S先生錯了,GE的管理者錯了,好多好多的美國專業投資人或者自以為專業的投資人都錯了!金融市場從來都是沒有效率與貪婪的!!在西元2009年時,個人前往美國開會,很多美國的銀行與金融從事者,還在會議上喃喃自語為何會發生這樣的事情,因為他們不過只是照著市場價值的變動,將資產投資在當時市場價值比重高的與不動產有關的CDO,CMO等等房貸與各種貸款所衍生性出來的金融商品上面,依照學理他們投資的還是流動性比較高,信用風險小與存續期間比較短的tranches上面,同一時期歐洲的UBS,巴賽爾協定的出產國家所在銀行,同樣因為這些CDO與CMO面臨得快要倒閉的風險,直到新加坡國家主權基金大量投資購買其普通股之後,才倖免於難!!

  學理對不對??坦白說,學理是對的,但運用學理的人錯了,根本就是誤用與亂用!!在西元2008年的一月份,大量的專業投資者早就開始慢慢撤離了金融市場,很多很多專業的投資人早就見到了不動產市場的崩解,以及美國關於房地產金融市場的崩解,但是它拖了好長的一段時間,讓很多專業投資人能夠離場,一直到美國的政經情況必須改變,於是投行雷曼兄弟倒閉,而Obama時代就正式來臨了!!

  很多人都以為Obama是救世主,但很多人卻不是這麼以為的!!房地產的崩解在亞洲各國其實比美國是早個十年的,因為美國的網路泡沫我們就已經見識過地產泡沫的情境!!那時香港人很多都是負資產,台灣很多人也是的,手邊的現金與資產根本不足以支付比房子價值還高的房貸債務,當時很多人都快破產了,因此當時的新台幣相對於美元是非常非常弱的!!很多很多人都見識到了地產價格的急速下跌,很多很多人都忘記了地產價格也是會跌到原來的三分之一或一半的,很多台北郊區的房子到目前為止的的市場價格,都還沒回到當時最高價格的三分之一!好多好多人都忘記了這些事情,但是我還是在這裡不斷地要提醒大家,沒有甚麼商品是只會上漲不會下跌的!!美國不過是複製亞洲過往的經驗而已!!

  在2000年以後阿扁上台,我們當時採用的自我救贖策略,是美國從Obama上台以來到現在都還在用的,而且美國目前已經用了超過四個年頭,我想Obama政權還是會繼續用這樣的策略,那就是貨幣貶值,直到所有美國的債務與美國人自身的儲蓄能夠有很明確的增長為止,這裡的增長當然是以美元來計價的!!只是這樣的策略好像並沒有降低美國的負債與提高美國的出口,但是美國的金融服務業與各種服務業卻持續萎縮,這也說明了亞洲的策略不應該被Obama政權所複製,因為美國過往的發展途徑並非如此的,而美國強勢貨幣所發展出來的服務業經驗,也是亞洲各國學不來的!因為文化上的差異太大了,而美國複製亞洲低價美元的策略目前坦白講是毀譽參半的,因為那會壓縮美國自身內部的需求,使得美國內需產業很多的就業機會無法出現!!

  只是可憐的台灣,我們根本沒有準備好面對這樣的劇情,而我們的老馬團隊既不懂科技,也不懂氣候,更不懂農業與漁業,最後就是胡搞瞎搞亂搞一通!連匯率貶值都學不會,難道不是有夠笨嗎??!!這些美國的博士害死了我們!!只是我還是要強調,即便是小英上台,不過只是換一批不懂的胡搞瞎搞而已,我從來都不覺得會比較好,因為他們也是既不懂科技(否則不會有兩兆傷心),也不懂氣候(否則不會水壩亂蓋隧道亂挖),更不懂農業與漁業(否則不會地層繼續下陷),所以..大家自求多福吧!!

  我們見到了Harvard與Yale的endowment foundations,因為美元貶值而總算勉強開始慢慢回到西元2008年的大幅縮水之前,我們也見到了Bill Gross對於過往輕忽債券在投資組合中扮演著重要角色的投資家與避險基金操作者的嗤之以鼻,只因為他不賺他覺得很笨的錢!!

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Hello there:

  我想蘋果目前的經理人Cook先生大約是會錯了已故的蘋果創辦人Steve Jobs的意思,因為SJ當初會採用Pad的想法,或是過往最早的播放器至今的種種想法,不外乎都是在將過往美國境內的諸多收不到錢的創新想法與工具,加以重新包裝,用封閉式的系統來包裝原來在開放系統下面的產品;因為美國從過往到今天,總是一再證明了開放式的架構是很難賺到錢的,不論是Unix,還是後來的Linux,抑或是現在的Android,相對上因為蘋果多採用封閉式的架構,一來自身的系統上的軟體很難與其他系統相容,再者也因為如此,過往Mac系統內儲存音樂與軟體或文件的部分也很難在一般的Windows系統上面運作,因此大幅度提高了自身產品能夠賺到錢的機會,當然後來很多的網頁建構透過PDF檔的出現大幅度降低了諸多文字溝通的門檻,但是很多有加密的PDF檔案系統還是能夠確保這些文件的取得是必須付費的!!過往Apple的成功就在於對於封閉系統的要求是嚴格的,一來自身的系統比起Windows是來得優越且善體人意的,再者也因為如此在Windows系統下面很多的盜版音樂能夠傳輸成功,但在Apple的系統之下,它能夠透過各種方式來進行系統的改進,最終使得消費者能夠用合理的價格來付費,相對上也對音樂的創作者與發行者形成了保護,同樣地;同樣地,今天在Pad的模式之下,它提供了雲端資訊提供者一個賺取智慧產權的機會,如果能夠利用雲端的技術來提供消費者適當的娛樂與學習,其實等於是利用Pad來架構一個封閉型的系統,最終還是能夠保護住智慧財產權的繼續發展!不但取代了很多NB的功能,也使得NB顯得笨重與顢頇,當然NB能做的科學運算是Pad做不到的,但Pad用觸控的功能來展現NB在遊戲上面的笨重,很多時後賽車與搖晃平板所能玩的遊戲都不可能在NB上面展現,這也是Windows 8出現的原因,希望能夠有與Pad一樣的功能與效果!!很多人以為SJ的最大貢獻,不在於蘋果是比其他人多麼創新,而是Apple能夠比其他的公司更能夠善用已經發展出來的創新技術與概念,將其納入自身封閉型態的系統,並且從其中提高它的價值與賺到錢,這才是蘋果過往其本益比(P/E ratio)能夠比較高,以及自身能夠比較賺錢的真正原因!!很多時候美國人能夠成功的原因,不外乎就是利用觀念上的創新,搭配很便宜的產品來賺取後面相關比較高價值的服務,重點還是觀念的創新,那是中國目前做不到的!!

  如今光是地圖的部分,Apple就走錯了,而YouTube的部分,Apple更是錯得離譜,因為YouTube是智慧型手機所不能沒有的功能,很多時候您總是必須提供一些免費的線上服務,讓消費者了解到很多很多之後,才會願意花錢去購買相關的產品,這些那些都是最終消費必經的資訊解讀過程!!我們見到了Steve Jobs的偉大,不在於他有多聰明,而在於Jobs能夠了解趨勢,最重要的是解讀趨勢,並且善用被別人以為不賺錢的技術與觀念,重新加以包裝,因為大家覺得不賺錢,因此就沒有在意它的價值,使得Apple能夠輕易用比較便宜的方式取得這些技術並加以改進,重新去建構智慧財產權的保護傘,讓這些技術內化成為蘋果的專利,這是Apple過往成功的祕密!!

  反觀我們的宏達電,很多時候手機過熱與系統整合不佳,手機面板品質不良的問題等等,一直都是hTC沒能夠賺到錢的真正主因,跟機不機海是無關的,一支品質好技術棒,內容與功能強大的智慧型手機,是遠比很多支都有相同問題的機海策略來得好的!!hTC的問題出在品管與過往以來手機過熱與系統整合不佳,甚至是手機面板品質不良的問題,我想那才是今年以來hTC一直都沒能賺到錢的主因!!因此hTC能做甚麼呢??看看中國在2G時代的白牌手機的發展策略,不外乎將原來電視上面的content轉換到手機能夠收看,因此提高了手機的價值,所以hTC該做的是在Android系統下面發展一些封閉型態的收費機制,比如音樂下載的部分,hTC有購買Beats,所以該想想如何讓Beats能夠發揮其他沒有Beats下所做不到的,比如如何讓Beats能夠在使用耳機的情況下更動聽,比如開發出自身的耳機配件,讓Beats的效果更好等等,這應該才是當初要買這些協力廠商或是有智慧產權的廠商的原始目標,那就是在Android系統這個開放系統下面,如何提高自身產品中比較好的App功能的封閉性!!

  過往Linux的發展過程,在強大的Unix之下其實也是類似的,很多比如是Red Hat或是其他的Linux都是在原Kernel之下附加了自身比較好的介面使用或是比較能夠作為系統伺服器等的功能,透過加值型的這些功能讓自己能夠賺到錢與活下去,我想那是hTC該做的!!要多想想如何在沒有自身的系統下面,開發一些原來PC或是NB能夠做的事情,讓它能夠很輕易的透過hTC所提供的App來完成,並且能酌收工本費,積少成多賺錢活下去!!這是甚麼都用別人的hTC該做的,而不是一味的行銷而已,因為產品沒有特色,終究會被目前已經開始大量運用3G的中國廠商趕上!更何況它們有聯發科的整合晶片,能夠利用這個硬體優勢發展自身的App去賺小眾的錢,我想hTC可能得多想想這些才是!!只是別忘了Sun Microsystem已經倒閉了,被做資料庫的Oracle買走了,而它留下的Java也被Microsoft改成了J++,以及後來Android平台上面的手機軟體研發語言,最終還是會運用這些概念並且成功商業化的Google存活下來,這些都是其他廠商該去思考的地方!!

 


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Dear Sir:

  I guess you can live in an excited moon for a while. In the end, you still have to face the music that your country is broken. It is not that strong as used to be. The reason behind is due to the nasty politics and the damage of rogue traders. The most important reason is not those ones stated above but your guys leave the most important things that your grand grand father/mother have taught you - the most important virtue  Americans once have are to save a lot and to do the things of self-control. Nothing can go on forever. Your people let the property price go up too high and let those financial instruments be valued well behind its fundamentals are the reason why you are broken now. Your management of governing the nation is lousy and horrible in those days or years I may say that. Your people still think you are right about those issues and just let those things happen more than once in decades. The free society should have self-conscious on a lot of things. But we can not see those in your nation. Your politician always preach that the States is the free nation. But the truth is that you can not tolerate different opinions even those ones who live in the next door. I guess that is the problem you face. Every one seems to pursue his/her own happiness but leave other in hell to exchange for his/her own joys. I see a lot of ridiculous things in decades but your people seem not even try to show how sorry you are and how desperate you want to adjust those. I think American people lose the ability of self-conscious and self-reflect on those issues. Americans choose the wrong path for such a long time which shows that American people are not that smart than others. You know what you should do already but your people are just reluctant to admit those things. So just be it. There is always a trade-off between greatness and sacrifice. I guess you have to choose the right path. So just be it!!


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My Dear American people:

  The story is about the end. Every one has to take a bow and thanks everybody. It is the end of story. But for you, there may be a new disaster you have to face. Mr. Obama has to learn how to compromise and learn how to listen to those ones with different opinions. It is the reason that he wins so narrow. I still believe Mr. Romney may win the popular votes anyway even he loses representative votes.( It seems lucky for us that it is not happened when Mr. Romney did lose more than a million votes to Mr. Obama) But this just makes him to feel sad more. I know it is not an easy night for him. 

  For a gentleman, Mr. Romney did a better job even in his last speech. The speech is so simple but with strong words. Mr. Romney can fix American problems but Presd. Obama may cause new problems if he chooses Mr. Kerry to be the secretary of the states because they are both ones with strong cahracters inside-out. They do not know how to compromise. That is why Mr. Kerry loses his campaign to Mr. Bush. You need some soft people with steel minds to help the nation moving on. Mrs. Clinton is the best secretary I can say that in this decade. But as the changing hand of Obama's team, there will be some new challenges he may face. The obama-care needs some people to communicate with Republicans. The issues of Israel and Red China are the same. Mr. Obama is not a good coordinator with people who have different opinions. It is nothing but a truth!! That is the reason why Americans can not have so many people get employed right now. Anyway, it is your choice. May God bless the States and all of your people. I really hope Mr. Obama can mean what he says without letting American people to be divided again!!


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My Dear American Fellows:

  I have to say even Mr. Obama fails in the election, he did create something for us to remember. He got a scar to prove it!! The first thing is he seems not to know those kind of things about the economy in the first place. But he often talks about the team play is important for his decision to make. So his legend shows the virtue of American's wisdom. Those decisions are not made by Mr. Obama himself but a lot of wise or stupid men and women around him. Those ideas are not come out from his head, especially those stories of job creation. From the very beginning, Mr. Obama wants Americans to accept or share with each other those part-time low paid jobs to accomodate the higher unemployment rate. But he fails!! American people want steady long-term jobs with higher pays. No one thinks that is wrong. But in the process of job creation, even in our nation, we create a lot of part-time jobs but much less long-term jobs this time.

  When Mr. Obama realizes American people want long-term jobs, it just lets him burn the midnight oil or stays out till the morning every day. It is much harder than you know and you think on your mind. Those jobs just can not be created in one day when your people are lack of funds or savings. It is not just the incentive thing anymore because you have no incentive motivation already. You leave nothing in your pockets and you have the creativity that can not be funded this time. So in the end, you have to save for a longer period of time. But it will just hurt your neighbors to find a decend job in this moment. That is the reason why you have to take QEx...I know it is pretty hard to accept this reality. I am against those QEx as I talked about this issue for years. But I have to confess that seems to be the only way this time. The monetary policy has to be used to compensate for the fiscal cliff. I guess that is no one can deny. My dear American people, yes, you just got a scar to prove what a long journey you have travelled. But this time, you have to move on or I have to use theose words "march on"!! There is no time for you to hestitate and no time to let you get into crazy minds. You have to show the world that USA is the first and the most deomocratic nation in this world. And that is nobody can deny.Just because you got a scar to prove!!


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My Dear Americans Fellow:

  I am so sorry to hear the Sandy did so much bad on you. I really hope it is fine to you and I will pray for you. It is not the time to talk about the politics right now. But I have to urge you to choose the right one for your own nation. I know Republicans worry about the national debt piling up. And I know Democrats people worry about losing their own "fair shares". I really mean what I say! This is not a joke. With the power, you can really do something. But our nation is also in jeopardy. Especially for this time and this moment, we worry about we will be sucked into the vicious circle of Red China. We worry about their mean and hearts of stone. We worry about our democracy will be destructed by the Red China Hurricane. We worry about so much things. And I do urge you to choose the proper one. I know you have the mechanism for the remedy even if you do not choose the right one. I know the president of the States has limited power for some issues that belong to local governments and states. It is the democracy that we learn from you.

  Anyway, I still think after the election, no matter who wins, the States will go on and on. you will see the pace of job creation is up and you will learn that the property price just goes on and on. It is without doubt. And I believe you will solve the problem of financial cliff. I urge you to choose the right guy and help the nation to speed up!!


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Hello there:

  Romney先生想說的是,在二次大戰時,美國人做了兩件很重要的事情讓自己擺脫衰退,一是讓自己成為大戰中的武器供應者,二是投入大戰禁止百姓的消費,將全部的資源轉化為戰爭的準備與生產,因此在戰後,美國人的儲蓄是透過美國戰爭公債的支持與擔保,外加全球百廢待舉,所以美國人透過將軍事生產轉化為民間的生產,提供全球各種物資與擔保,讓自身的貨品與服務能夠到達全球各地,特別是歐洲的部分!!因此Romney希望透過軍事的更新,提高美國自身軍隊的預算,來擺脫這次的不景氣,其實Romney先生的想法不見得不對,只是軍事的更新代表著舊裝備的淘汰,淘汰的方式有兩種,一種就是報廢與再整備更新,另一種就是投入戰爭當中消耗掉,在美國目前國內有財政懸崖的此時,前者感覺是有些浪費,但後者已經不是美國一個國家能夠完成,因為美國公債需要更多的資金來支持,這也是QE 3不得不的另一個原因!!而Obama先生想說的是,他希望透過美國醫療體系的更新,希望建立人人都有相對便宜的健保制度,來更新美國的社會,來支應未來美國老年化的挑戰,只是這就將牽動著保險產業的變動,牽動著美國的醫療人員福利,牽動著美國貧富之間對於誰該負多一點責任與支付多一些金錢的爭議,只是這也是美國不得不面對的問題!!其實健保的改革是另一種大政府主義,只是將民間很多的活動變成中央來統籌的一種方式!!不見得會比較有效率,但是誠如Paul Krugman所言,醫療問題很難用經濟學的學理來解決,必須透過政府的介入才能變得比較有效率,只是...那也需要很多年的資金投入與學習!!但美國目前面對的財政懸崖,不論誰當選應該都是難解的問題!!

  Romney希望透過將自身問題外化,透過軍事的部分轉移美國的問題到海外的各國爭端,而Obama希望解決美國長年以來自身政經體制的沉疴,包含稅制與諸多貧富不均的問題,希望透過美國社會自身的更新,來使得美國更進步,只是那也需要錢,但美國已經達到財政懸崖的問題!!Obama以為美國不得不救這些美國企業,Romney以為就該讓這些企業倒下,這樣政府就不必花這麼多錢,但Obama以為那將帶來連鎖性的失業效應,所以應該直接介入,幫助企業重生,加速就業的改善,只是Obama也知道政府的極限,畢竟很多事情需要的市場自我的調整,人力市場的需求供給絕對不是政府該介入的,但政府至少該維持總體經濟資金的流動性與大家願意承擔風險的企業家精神,否則美國式的民主與價值無法維繫!但Obama一定是對的嗎?這些都需要更進一步的研究與討論!!感覺上Romney軍事的角度來增加就業,反倒讓美國更像社會主義國家了,因為那是變相的大政府,只是今天部門的擴充不是美國郵政之類的而是軍事,美國軍事技術領先全球也是事實,因此發展有比較利益的產業也確實符合經濟學的原理,只是誰需要這些領先的技術??台海爭端??兩韓衝突??還是哪個國家或地區想爭取自己的獨立??或者是中東的衝突??只是這樣美國人在海外會不會更不安全了??只是...這些先進的武器與設備或是服務都是需要出口,最重要的是誰能夠付錢??因為日本能夠支付,所以美國就幫日本協防了,不論對象是那個國家,美國不過是做貿易而已,讓自身的比較利益得以展現!!但Obama健保改革也是另一種變相的大政府,因為他侵犯了各州的權利!!

  而Obama則希望跟中國貿易,但又不太願意讓中國有比較利益者過度侵犯美國的產業,中國是那種願意以低價搶標,甚至達到交易對手要求卻不怕剛開始虧本的貿易模式,那跟過往韓戰一般,中國沒有甚麼先進武器只有大量的人衝鋒陷陣是雷同的,當然中國現在的人力素質是提升不少,只是可能還是需要很多年的學習,畢竟蘇聯也沒有像樣的航空母艦跟其他的,中國軍事上面完全承襲蘇聯,自然會有類似的發展模式!!只是中國能夠因為自身人力資本成本不高,所以用各種方式便宜銷售才能生存下去,但美國已經不能這樣了,這也是美國害怕中國產業入侵美國的主因,過往美國與日本的貿易經驗告訴我們,日本人力資源終究有限,所以與美國貿易的經驗是其終究會面對人力成本上升很快的情況,但中國人多,因此需要很久很久的時間,那對美國的經濟與各方面都會是場大災難,除非中國企業答應在美國的生產投資,百分之百或絕大部分用於美國的設備使用或需求,都是僱用美國人來完成,中國的產業能夠如同日本車廠在美國生產與銷售給美國人,甚至還外銷到亞洲或其他地區,否則中美的貿易摩擦在未來將無可避免地是非常難解決的問題!!

  說來說去,還是老問題,美國人必須開始讓美國人都開始儲蓄,利用QE 3讓自身貨幣貶值,讓從海外賺得的收益增加,改善美國人自身的財務狀況,想辦法讓美國跟其他國家貿易量增加,增加美國的出口與就業機會,慢慢調整自身的財務體質,那是美國目前最需要做的事情!!


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My Dear American fellows:

  I know how hard it can be to choose. But I respect your choice even you may make the wrong choice. Yes, Democratic politican sometimes just show how ego they are and Republican obviously show how they belong to the elite society all the time. I guess it is a tough choiceypu have to make. I still think if I can choose, I will choose no one because I do not believe anyone can save the States in the short time. You need to save more, but if you do that, there will be a lot of people unemployed. Just as I say before, it is the dilemma. I pray for you. But I guess God is too busy to solve this issue and have to sove others like Syria or other middle east problems. I guess no one can save American in one day. It has to be improved day by day. So even Mr. Romney has to confess he can not save it in one day, but have to change it gradually. As your nation has its great power in the congress and in states, I guess even the president can not change too much if it does not coordinate others to help the nation. Mr. Romney is a gentleman. Mr. Obama is a fighter. They come from totally two different worlds. The two worlds just coincidently live in the States at the same time. Mr. Obama cares about the poor but he didn't help them enough. On the contrary, his policy helps the wealthy people most and all the time. Mr. Romney will help the wealthy people, but he may try to help the poor if he wants. I support the idea of Republican that it will help us to defend our nation. I feel sad the Democratic politicians abandon us in 1976. It causes the unrest bloody protest in the island and changes our fate forever. But I still have to look forward because the past can never get it back. We do fear of Red China, but we still want to live in peace and make money with them. We do cherish the democracy we have but we can not protect ourselves from a lot of bad things still.

  Anyway, it is your choice to make yourself better. But I still have to remind you that you may not have what you want even you think you choose a better person.


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Hello there:

  當美國在80年代開始,發現自己已經是全世界最大的債權人時,為了幫助中南美中國家的政府能夠償還其公債,美國有一任的財政部長Brady先生,決定以美國自身的公債作擔保,讓這些國家發行的債券以美元計價,在美國主要的金融中心裡面進行交易,爾後這批債券被稱之為Brady Bonds.這批債券在2000之後隨著中南美國家債務的大量改善,特別是巴西與墨西哥,因此這兩個國家開始大量償還這些在一開始被以為是BBB等級以下的政府公債,爾後當這些債券消失在世界上時,它已經是A或是AA等級的了!!這是美國人為這個世界做的努力,美國人的投資邏輯也從大量累積自身的財富與儲蓄,改變成依賴金融市場來進行融通,這也是我們後來知道的shadow financial markets的誕生,所有的美國人將自身的財富都放在這個平台上面,只留下自己的房子作為主要的儲蓄,而大量的消費也因為這個平台的興起,使得所有的美國人都能發揮自己的專才,別忘了連Bill Gates早期草創Microsoft時,也是透過信用卡進行融通來創建公司的,而後來的YouTube也是如此!!

  美國的金融創新曾經是美國最耀眼與美國最閃耀的名詞,曾幾何時,美國的金融創新變成了骯髒的字眼與貪婪的代表,這裡面說明了管理上面的問題,那就是當大家越依賴這個金融平台時,這個平台就越需要被嚴格的監督與管理,只是.....這就是美國這兩三十年下來最大的 financial dilemma!!


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My Dear American Fellows:

  You face two tradeoffs now, one is the habit of saving and employment, and the other is the tradeoff of sovereign debt and financial cliff. The first one shows if Americans save too much, the ecnomy of the States will lose its momentum to go up further in a faster pace. The second one shows the tradeoff between the monetary policy and fiscal policy. Of course, you face the fiscal cliff because you put too much energy in the wars. You are fighting for wars you should not get involved in the first place. You should let people die in despair and desperation. The first of all shows American people get too much sympathy to each other, so you should have a heart of STONE to each other. You know there are 4.3 milloin American people who earn less than US 750 dollars a month. Those ones have been labeled as social worms or not-wanted ones to some prestigious politicians. I know how hard for a person to live a life like that. I live the life like that before and maybe I just live a life like that now. Live in a day with only 3 to 5 US dollars is not easy in the States. But we ALSO know there are a lot of people live in a life with their own investment incomes. And it brings a fortune to them and they DO SAVE A LOT. On the issue of fiscal policy, we DO SEE the BUSINESS-MINDER Americans do too much to this world and SAVE TOO MUCH LIVES but let American people live in a hunger and nutrition-less Society. It is the bad fruit you choose to eat. So you should retreat from all of the world and mind youe own BUSINESS. Then you will not have any FISCAL CLIFF anymore.

  There is always a tradeoff when you choose to be a person with heart and care and sympathy. But charity starts at home, it is always a hard choice for you to choose how to live like this every day. Arguing may be too much. Fighting each other with words and nonsense may be too much. Get up and do something is crucial in the moment when you already know the problem you face and you have. Don't get yourself drunk again. Try to get yourself together and make yourself sober to this drunken world. Everything you try to teach the world always gets some big impact and feedback from people who live in the rest. It is not hard to know how you try hard to CHANGE THE WORLD. Maybe you have disputes, maybe you have different opinions about how the States whould be run. In the end, the rest of us always depends a lot on the principle your ancestor have taught US before - Alway be true to others and alway with a warm heart to others. Maybe it is taken as granted for the rest of the world. But it should not be abandoned as it is the core value you have. Get up, move on and DO NOT LOOK BACK!!!


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My Dear American Fellows:

  I am a little sad to hear the saying of "lost decade" to the situation that the States faces, it means that the States is just like the last twenty years' JAPAN. We call it "a lost two decades". Japan has its problem as it is reluctant to admit that it is a broken economy in the jeopardy. It tries hard to TRANSFER personal or company's horrible debts into the form of sovereign's debt through the endless times of Quantitative Easing (the "QEs" we usually call that). It turns its corporations into Zombies. Yes, it does solve the unemployment problem in these two decades but not the eternity. Those corporations are dying just in the slow motion AND all knows that it will eventually die somehow in the future, like Sharp, Sony, and those already gone like Sanyo, Mitsubushi motor, etc. It just shows the effect of WTO and all those corporations face the problem that Americans and Europeans create, that is a "tariff-less world". Because there are lack of tariffs, so it can not protect its corporation to do the differentiation of its products and other services. The more competitive environment and less income or value creation in the modern societies shows those Zombies has to die gradually. It shows the deep flaw idea of WTO spirit because even the modern corporations can not sustain or resist the tide of those ENDLESS competitions with no reason. The flaw idea that every country has to follow is the tariff-less principle. It does creates unnecessary competition and it does hurt its employment somehow these days!! And the modern world demand for white goods are also decreasing as the economy growth of each nation is just too small. The most important issue is you have a "too luxury social welfare" and it creates "largee fiscal deficit" than every one knows but your taxable incomes are decreasing as every politician are trying to please the voters through cutting taxes.

  It is the turing point you have to face. To tax the rich for the subsidy of whole society or to let the society cut its social benefits forever is the choice you have to make. OR just let yourself live in the desperation or endless sadness FOREVER. It is your choice.... to make a change!!


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My Dear American Fellows:

 The time of QE 3 comes. Everyone worries about it. But for the social scientist, it is a new playground that no nation in this world has done it before. Maybe you may cite that Japan has done it before. But I have to say they have done it in a different way.

  First of all, Japanese Yen has not depreciated that much and Japan has not try to buy a lot of Gold as their reserves in case their currency will appreciate further to US dollar. Second, Japanese Yen has no such the power as the measurement to the prices of world's goods. It makes a big difference that Japan has not tolerate its currency to have free float exchange to any currency in this world. It all makes American to be the other case (from the case of Japan).

  American has been seen as the most optimistic nation in this world. We still think it is. Nowaday, American still has the most advance technology in the fields of communication and biotechnology. Of course, right now, the rebuilt supply-chain of its own industries seems to be the first issue that Americans should do!! I guess the administration of USA has to come out several new ways to induce entrepreneurs to build their empires. It is the only way to solve the unemployment rate issue. Because the small business always play their roles for the employment. That is the Republican's idea. And it is nothing to do with the Fed role.

  But Fed can supply the fund, so you guys may come out with new or old ideas to create your own business. It is the only way to let yourself survive. I still think it is the golden moment to start your own business. I still think it can be done without hesitate.


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Hello there:

  美國的新展望當然繫於美國企業對於美國自身的投資,Obama以為美國高等教育的學費太貴,或許也是美國今天很難很難有比較好的發展的原因,因為培訓成本高自然提高自身的生產成本!!美國近幾年來新改版的教科書價格高漲,或許也透露出美國高等教育正走向敗亡的道路!主因當然是新教科書的需求大減,因此必須透過價格調升來彌補,也代表著美國人很多學生用的都是舊版或二手的教科書!而這正意味著美國經濟是持續衰敗的!是的!!過往美國確實吸引了大量的世界級人才,但是因為新興國家環境的改善與改變,很多新的商機正出現在這些國家當中,美國已經不如以往這麼吸引人了,連美國的證照,坦白說在台灣本地都已經被以為沒有甚麼big deal了!!除非是去外商工作,否則美國證照並沒有那麼值錢了!!但好景不常的是美國企業早已經將重心放在中國大陸,相對上台灣的FDI早就逐年降低到很低很低,主因當然是我們的財富累積很多,早就不需要外來的資金了,而外來的技術價值,取決於能否將這些技術用在外銷歐美國家,賺取較高的報償這件事情上面,但歐美需求不振,因此廠商對於花大錢取得這些技術,也早就興趣缺缺!!這也是我一直以來所說的,美國必須發展出一些新興市場需要的技術與科技,才可能得到大家花大錢去買的可能性!!而美國對自身科技投資不足,早就不是新聞,美國不少地方連高速網路都沒有,美國也沒有領先全球鋪設4G網路,試問相關的產業與科技如何發展??!!這些都是美國目前面對到的困境之一而已!!

  坦白說美國可能需要去重建自身的產業鏈,哪些部份美國可以透過其他國家來製造,哪些部分又該移回美國去製造來產生高附加價值,這些都是美國該思考的!!我們見到HP與Dell的失敗,正說明了美國這些企業完全將製造外包與各國匯率相對於美元持續走升所造成的傷害,HP已經失去全球PC出貨的第一名,而聯想與本地Acer出貨量雖然增加,但企業的虧損卻是事實,這也說明了美元走貶對於這些企業進行匯率避險管理上面,確實是造成很大的影響!!相對上來說,如果美國還有一部分的PC末端組裝的話,或者是高附加價值的高價PC或NB仍有部分在美國境內製造的話,或許今天HP與Dell就不會虧損這麼多了!!不過也說不定就是了!!這當然是值得再研究與再思考之處,也或許只是因為美國人不願意換機所造成的嚴重需求衰退,以及這些廠商忙著清庫存所造成的虧損所致!!只是美國製造已經是不得不了,因為這些工作即便是低薪,但終究是份工作!!這是美國人必須想清楚的地方!!

  美國一但進行QE3,在全球對於商品與勞務的需求正在下滑的此時,這些資金將無處可去,最後只是流入新興國家或是外銷出口就強健的國家,成為這些國家的外匯準備而已,對美國人自身財富的分配與流動,其實幫助不大!!只是美元進一步走貶的可能性也因此大增了,當然美國可以免於通貨緊縮的風險,但卻無法讓自身的經濟強力增長,因為這些錢必須通過實體經濟流入美國人的口袋才行,流入了美國人的口袋後,再由美國人自己相互買賣的往來,提升美國境內自身勞務與商品的價值,最終產生出良性的循環,使得美國人的收入增加,爾後推升美國人自己的就業與其他產業的復甦,而不是如同今日,美國的不動產復甦相當程度上面可能是因為美國的有錢人發現新興市場股市不佳,因此回頭加碼美國自身的商用與特定的住宅不動產,這只說明了美國有錢人在進行自身的避險而已,並不代表美國經濟的實質增長!!

  美國科技向來領先全球,那是美國必須回頭著墨的,還記得加州當時也是因為矽谷的關係,最後科技產業還是會回饋到房地產跟其他產業,因此美國需要一個領頭羊的產業,吸引全球的資金,最後資金在回饋到美國的地產與其他產業上面!!這是美國不得不走的道路!另一條路自然是醫療與看護照顧產業!!


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Hello there:

  當美國人百思不得其解為何自身經濟衰退到這個地步時,其實大家該了解到的是美國一直以來的經濟發展脈絡,美國人在經歷過80年代的S&L危機與97年東南亞金融與俄羅斯金融風暴之後,甚至是與諸多年以後的08年LB金融風暴,不難看出美國人的儲蓄已經耗盡!S&L危機的出現是因為美國在越戰與石油危機之後,不得不面對自身的通貨膨脹所致!而東南亞金融風暴真正的原因是因為美國耗盡了國力在處理蘇聯解體與印巴衝突的問題而不得不的情境!!從Clinton總統之後,美國就走上了極為錯誤但卻不得不的道路-Outsourcing!!其實Clinton為了討好右派的有錢人與管理國家很多相關的事宜,因此讓這些企業大量outsourcing自身的企業需求與產品到海外,就已經種下後面總統無法管理美國金融與產業秩序的大災難,別忘了金融法規的解禁與deregulation,也是從那時候開始的!!很多共和黨人都以為Clinton其實才是真正的大災難始作俑者,當然很多民主黨人卻以為真正過度自由化濫觴的始作俑者是Reagon先生,因為他每天只負責講很難聽的笑話,既無法處理拉丁美洲的毒品問題,跟蘇聯的協商很多地方也是自尋煩惱,據說連Alan Greespan都不是很受得了這位先生,Reagan先生與英國的柴契爾夫人聯手,打造美國與英國進行一波極其過度自由化的產業與經濟革命,減稅政策就是那時候開始的,好在蘇聯人夠笨到自己投降了!當然這樣的革命確實使得蘇聯很緊張,以為英美的經濟架構是無敵的,也直接導致了後來蘇聯的瓦解,但是那純粹是因為美國人跟蘇聯人玩梭哈,結果蘇聯人被美國的星戰計畫給騙了,其實美國根本沒有辦法執行也從未擁有真正星戰計畫的核心技術,但卻因為自身的科技技術相對於蘇聯與其附庸國家是相對進步的,所以讓蘇聯誤以為美國已經具有這項可能全世界只有外星人才有的技術,最後也導致戈巴契夫等同是投降式的美蘇和解!!再過來我們就見到美國人大量輸出美元進入蘇聯各共和國,為的是確保前蘇聯的核子武器不會外流到其他國家,但事與願違,還是無法阻止巴基斯坦與印度取得戰略核武導彈,並且使得南亞的印巴問題更為嚴重!!於是美國人發現自己印了大量美元卻無法解決蘇聯解體的核子擴散問題,還導致了北朝鮮取得了蘇聯長程火箭的技術!!為此Clinton只好在老布希之後,繼續印鈔票與開放自身企業大量連結印度與巴基斯坦,以及繼續圍堵北朝鮮!!最重要的是在80年代因為美國為了要讓蘇聯耗盡資源,放任蘇聯入侵阿富汗,也種下了後來美國的911事件的濫觴,因為這些狂熱分子在美軍顧問的訓練下,擁有了當時最先進的針刺飛彈,後來就是一連串的蘇聯連滾帶爬的退出阿富汗,而阿富汗進入了另一個可怕的時代....總之因為許多先進國家害怕這些地區的動盪,印巴之間的衝突也越來越嚴重,而中印邊界問題始終無解,因此美國嘗試介入處理,但卻越搞越糟!!爾後美國發現自身已經沒有錢之後,只好任由避險基金對東南亞國家進行襲擊,造成新一波的東南亞金融風暴,也使得資金撤回美國與後來的美元走強十數年,讓美國企業有比較貴的美元可以使用,來支配與購買全世界的商品與勞務,這也是1998年亞洲金融風暴的結果與成因!!只是美國也為此付出了代價,那就是LTCM瓦解與美國Fed花大錢來清理當初避險基金所造成的亞洲動盪與相關的危機!!而這一切的導火線當然是美國在冷戰之後,不得不大量投資俄羅斯與其原蘇聯共和國之後,而最後又不得不希望資金能夠回到美國,而進行釜底抽薪式的資金取回!!

  從這裡也不難看出,美國從80年代到新世紀以來,美國的經濟與政治上的作為一直都是在補破網的!先是補越戰與石油危機的破網,後來是補蘇聯解體的破網,再來是補印巴核武衝突的破網,以及自身種下的阿富汗破網!再過來就是捕自身房地產泡沫的破網!!

  本來美國在80年代已是世界的債權人,全世界都欠美國人錢,當時美國人還確認到這些錢可能永遠都得不到償還,因為這些國家的匯率相對於美元都太低了,而這些國家的政經與社會發展的情況都遠遠不如美國穩定,於是美國只好繼續補破網,因為錢已經借出去了!!美國人慢慢開始教育自己的人民利用自身的信用來借款,運用信用卡房貸等等金融方式來消費,爾後就是一再融通與一再質借,美國人慢慢開始讓自己從全世界的債權人變成全世界的債務人,到今天美國已經是全世界最大的債務國!!美國能夠利用自身良善的金融市場創造出一個又一個的賺大錢美夢,美國人稱其為Shadow financial market!!讓全世界以為美國的財務金融工程是遠比造橋鋪路都來得高尚的行業!!如此一來美元的力量在當下看似更為強大,而美國對於全世界的影響比過往美國作為債權人其實是更深遠的,因為全世界都擔心美國垮了付不出錢來,這總比美國人一天到晚擔心別人付不出錢來好得多!!但也因為如此使得後來美國變成全世界的債務人之後,不得不開始一連串美元的繼續永無止境的貶值!但因為美國人始終沒有做好產業回流美國的準備,而美國人不願意去做薪資低但工時長的工作,大家都想做工時低但薪資高的顧問或其他服務類型的工作,只是回頭看美國人已經沒有儲蓄,又如何有那麼多的理財與相關的金融需求呢??!!因此美國的失業問題就更難解!!

  美元必須持續貶值的原因,當然與巴西出了一個Lula,因此巴西的通膨問題得到了解決;而中國在江澤民與胡錦濤的領導下越來越聰明,也使得中國越來越科學;而俄羅斯出了一個萬年總統普丁,他很嚴厲的管理國家,這些那些都使得美國很難再用金融市場來取回自身的美元,因此美元相當可能必須繼續貶值下去!直到製造業回流美國,而美國人也願意放下身段開始做工時長但薪資不高的工作為止,並且如同過往美國上世紀的美國曾祖父母輩,真切的體會到儲蓄的重要!!

  總之,在這段美元貶值的期間,我們很清楚的知道美國必須開始重新累積財富,美元才有穩定升值的可能性,否則就必須透過其他國家的金融災難與問題的出現和其他國家的戰爭等可能,美元才可能得到短暫避風港的效果,但連美國人都知道那是不會長久的!!這也是很多人以為即便是Romney取代Obama,美國人仍然不可能解決長期結構性失業的問題,以及美元必須繼續走貶的可能性!!因為美國人必須真切的從自身的消費與儲蓄和生活行為上去改變,而不是一再期待有哪個總統有甚麼經濟特效藥,讓美國人繼續過這樣的生活!!


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Hello there:

  回頭談美元的升值,我說過了美元走貶只有一個原因,那就是美國的負債實在太多太多了,很多美國人都在檢討這件事情!!誠如我過往所說,我只倡議過QE 1與後來不得不的OT 1,再過來的QE 2與其他的甚麼我都不是很支持!!因為我知道這一切只是嘗試去讓市場機能能夠恢復而已!!簡單的說就是To let the market roll again!!但是事與願違,因為美國人普羅大眾的儲蓄已經耗盡,這也是後來我堅信不論美國進行多少次的QE或是OT,大致上面美國都不太可能會出現通貨膨脹,唯一可能出現通貨膨脹而且是惡性的通貨膨脹的可能原因只有兩個,一個就是食物的短缺,另一個就是能源的短缺,我想這兩點我們現在都見到了,只是這兩點會出現也是讓大家很吃驚的,畢竟美國是農產品大國;這也是Standard & Poors本來很樂觀的以為美國只是溫和的通膨,那代表的是好事,因為溫和的通膨代表的是大家手邊都有一點錢,能夠讓物價水準與房價等等持續的穩定上漲;但是惡性的通膨就非常慘了,因為那代表民生基本物資的匱乏與百姓用錢都買不到需求品的窘境,簡單的說就是印鈔票無用,再多的鈔票只是推升物價到大家更不能夠消費其他產品為止,照日本的例子與其他國家的實例,終在惡性通膨發生後的兩三個月內,我們通常會見到的是惡性的通貨緊縮,因為大家都不消費也不用各種物資了,那油價暴跌的可能性就大增了,預計這次跌回40美元一桶都是可能的!!!中國的俗話說物極必反,我想這就是很清楚的道理!!

  可想而知的是當美國都走入通貨緊縮,這個世界的原物料也將變成是破銅爛鐵般的不值錢,回想當初美國的科技類股會興起,一來是美國人口袋有錢,二來是美國人願意花大錢更新自家的電子設備與進行國家的翻新,美國人為這個世界做了好多好多的事情,不論是日本的汽車與電子產品,還是美國的半導體與電腦與軟件等等,都是美國人用自身的儲蓄吹捧出來的;美國人希望自己的孩子們天生我材是有用的,因此吹捧出了Steve Jobs,因此吹捧出了Bill Gates,SJ替美國的蘋果與美國過往的創新找到了堆積財富的地方,而BG則是目前為第三世界國家努力的慈善家!!其實很仔細的看,日本的強大是美國人宣傳的結果,正如同現在中國的強大是美國人宣傳的結果,中國的外匯準備多是美元或是歐元,不論哪種貨幣大多都是從美元準備再研伸出來的而已,當然中國從歐洲賺到很多錢也是事實,只是中國其實很落後,很多的人連溫飽都還是問題,而台灣在科技上面除了半導體之外,更是遠比中國落後很多,當然本地的窮孩子再過來九月又要擔心學雜費的問題!!回頭想想,當然我們的自由民主是非常非常昂貴的,而中國肯定是沒有的,因為他們負擔不起??!!

  總的來說,當美國進入通貨緊縮,原物料價格必然是暴跌,這在2008年已經見過了;中國不再需要多生產貨品,對原物料的需求也就不在了,石油那更不用說,大家都不需要運輸,跟著就是太陽能產業,因為根本不用替代,油價低到大家覺得用油就好,因為夠便宜,太陽能產業也會是大幅衰退!!然後就是其他的各種產業,接著就開始惡性循環了,慢慢擴及到所有的產業!!總的來說,真的到那時候,大家只要緊抱美元現鈔就好,因為它可能是那時世界上唯一有購買力的貨幣!!大家很用心的在家數美元鈔票就好,甚麼事都不要做!!當然您也可以數歐元現鈔就是了,至少去歐洲是用得上的!!

  如果這是我們要的世界,那就做吧,還說甚麼呢!!那就繼續悲觀下去吧,那就繼續把油價炒作到所有的經濟體都受到巨大傷害為止吧,那就放棄所有發展新產業的計畫吧,那就放棄掉我們的理想吧,只是有孩子的父母們,我想問您的是那您的孩子怎麼辦??!!!如果您想阻止這一切,最好的辦法就是美元持續的緩慢貶值,但是大家慢慢調整這一切,慢慢等到美國的生產力與購買力恢復了,再由美國來幫忙其他經濟體出清大家的生產!坦白說那是我最不願意見到的事情,因為美元走貶代表著我們可能也沒有甚麼工作好做!我們是沒有甚麼內需的!!但是美國人如果沒辦法振作起來,似乎也只能是如此了!!或是大家幫忙中國的消費力,讓中國多消化一些全球的商品,讓中國的人民幣能夠有比較好的購買力與信用,讓人民幣取代美元成為主要的交易與貿易的貨幣,我知道這對美國人是很難堪的事情.但美國人沒法振作,全世界實在是沒辦法等到美國人醒了,因為大家都要吃飯才行!!

  我想這些那些大家都在做了,只是....您參與了嗎??!!!


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Hello again:

  那美元究竟該升還是該貶值??我個人主觀的以為美元該升值,因為對於新興國家是比較有利的,但對於美國長期以來的債務餘額還未降低到十兆美元以下來看,就必須取決於美國人的想法,因為這十二三兆美元的美國政府債務餘額,對美國人來說是負擔與負債,但對其他國家來說卻是資產與信用的擔保,大部份的國家都利用此美債的增加來進行國際貿易與金融活動,只是如果從降低美國負債與自身國際企業融資成本的角度來看,這些企業當然希望在目前美國國內商業活動大不如前之際,美元是持續走貶的!因為如此一來,成本降低與海壞獲利增加,對美國多國籍企業或許有利,但前提是很多的生產活動必須移回美國!否則海外生產地的貨幣大幅升值,對於企彆生產成本以美元計算是增加而非減少的,長期來看對多國籍企業不見得有利!!因為美元升值代表著進口便宜,而美國境內服務業的收入因為美元升值而購買力上升!!這裡面的優劣就需要透過市場一點一點去尋找其均衡點了!!但美元貶值對新興國家來說不見得是好事,因為原物料不見得上漲,而新興國家的政府公債債務購買力大增,但出口衰退,長久下去這些國家的匯率相對於美元終究還是要大跌的,而股市大跌也是合邏輯的事情!!

  但共和黨希望債務降低,民主黨的Obama也希望債務降低此時,美國用QE的方式來進行融通的可能就大幅降低了,在自身債務降低的前提下,美元確實短期是可能走強的,因為信用變好且實質購買力因為原物料下跌而上升,最重要的是美國是食物出口大國,此時的美國就變成是關鍵原物料-黃小玉的出口國家,因此貨幣升值是比較可能的!!其實美國的高資產者非常明白,美國債務餘額增加,最後還是要有錢人多繳一點錢才可能還,不然只能永無止盡的美元貶值了,但美元貶值,這些人的錢也沒有去處,因為新興市場股市大跌的可能也是非常高的!而貴金屬早以漲翻天!!!因此美元貶值唯一受益的可能只有美國的多國籍企業,但有多好卻也是很難評估的!!

  只是美國進行QE 3,對於全球來說絕對是場災難,因為中國的出口必然更低更少,對原物料的需求也將更為大減,而美元走貶只是使得美國對其他國家的需求與購買力大減,因此美元走貶對華爾街那些做原物料交易的人來說也不見得有利!因為原物料價格不見得走強,其價格還是得取決於需求與供給,美元走弱,目前看來對原物料的需求是大減的!!

  如果美國能利用美元升值,進行新一輪的科技與產業創新,因此使得美國的失業率降低,連帶帶動全球的需求,如此美國進入良性循環,因此能進一步增加美國人的收入,也降低自身的債務與失業率!!但若美國停止創新,美國企業不肯大幅投資美國,美國金融機構不願意重新大幅放寬信用借貸,那美國可能因為美元升值反倒使得自身債務購買力增加,而負擔變重!!那時美元可能必須重新走回貶值的道路,那是無庸置疑的事情!!


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