經濟,財務,統計學,數理科學與政治評論

Dear Amercian people:

  It is nothing but a truth that the USA does face a lot of challenges these days. American people want to save more but can not get a decent salary. American people want to have a decent job but corporations are afraid of the too-low growth rate of the USA. American people want to show their optimistic but a lot of people still look for jobs for their own living. The US dollar has depreciated for such a long time but we just can not see the export industries go back to the US that much. It is the time that we have so much expectation but have so much disappointment in the end. People around the world all have the same problems and comcerns as yours. People around the world just face the same challenge as American people have.

  It is not the time to feel scared about all those issues. It is not the time to fear or to have self-pity. It is time to show that American people should go on and on. The old industry is over. It means that American people need many new kind of jobs we have not seen before. It means that American people need new growth momentum on some industries we cannot dream of. Dear Amercian people, there are many years ahead us to live on. We just cannot escape those problems we face.

  American people have to save, to invest, and to educate themselves. American people have to transform old society into a new one with a lot of jobs we have not seen before. American people have to create something new to help each other have decent jobs.

  People do try a lot of things in those years. Let emerging markets on the spotlight and let emerging market be drivers to the world growth. Unfortunately, emerging countries have their own structural problems but they are reluctant to change. Just like Americans, when people talk about the reform such as tax code change or pension reform. It all get fiercely resistant and make the government drop out the original reform. No one wants to be the public enemy, especially those interest groups who can donate a lot of money to politicians. It is the problem we face. People know that the tax code change is the only way to let everyone have some money in their pockets to spend. So they can save, invest, and pay down debts. Now a lot of governments just try hard to reduce their own burden. Government want the society take the burden of employment. So we hear that many university scholars take the unemployment issue for granted. They think students should pay a lot to have their education but can not promise those students to have a good job. They think unemployment is natural. But when people talk about the employment of those scholars, they are all silent.

  People talk and do nothing making us angry. The interest groups use whatever they can to stop further reforms people need. It is nothing but a truth. So we just have to urge the government to change little by little, day by day, and night by night until the government finally fixes the problem and let people have their life back.

Dear American people:

  This time is no different. The USA needs a big change. The tax code system has to be changed. The old days tax weave should be abandoned. American have to face those wrong policies from 1997 to 2008. Those financial liberal policies make the wealth-redistributed problem even worse. People say that the payroll of investment bankers has to go down. To be honest, it is wrong and not to have the perspective of free economic idea. Those who can make big profit sould be rewarded, and those who make big profits pay a lot of taxes to the society. It has to be that way. But we do not see those happen, you should not punish those investment bankers but should reward them and encourage them to pay a lot of taxes to the US government. So the issue is not on the payroll of investment bankers but on the proper tax code change. American people should try hard to create more higher-paid jobs rather than just think other should not have that much. American government and society should try hard to create a lot of jobs with higher payroll rather than to blame other competent people earn that much. The USA is not a communist society but a one which needs the well-run free market so much.

  Trading is what a society needs which can bring the equlibrium and the true value of those financial assets. The free market society means to obtain the most efficient allocation of all resources in a market form. It is what the America needs now and it will be what the USA needs in the future. Merger and acquisition needs investment bankers. The IPO needs investment bankers. The price adjustment needs all of American traders to finish. You should not punish those people working hard to find the true value of those financial assets. You should blame the wrong tax-code and those incompetent congressmen or congreewomen in the USA. People who work hard and make a big fortune needs to be encouraged. Of course, they need to pay a little bit more compared with others. It is a natural thing because their wealth needs to be taken care with more labor forces. A peaceful society is needed for the rich compared with others who have no money in their pockets. The poor have nothing to lose in the violent society compared with those super rich Americans.

  The long-term issue American people face right now is its education system. American education system has some deep-rooted problems. We see those American graduates from the business scholl or have a bachelor degree are all with heavy student loan burden. The issue here is those graduates can not find a higher payroll jobs anymore which can compensate their costs on the education. It is a serious problem. It is opposite to the preach of Mr. Obama who always seays that American people should have more education. If the education can not improve people's life but vring the burden on their finance. Who should be blamed? It is the thing that Mr. Obama can't conceive or think anout in the first place. It also shows the society changing is needed and some departments in the college or university need a big overhaul. Those ones who can't make their graduates to have decent jobs should be abandoned. Those ones who can make bright future to their graduates should be promoted and rewarded. I think that is what a free society means. A free economy should let the allocation of resouces to be optimized and maximized. The waste of human capital is included. It is a question that all American people have to think deep.

Dear American people:

  You have some deep troubles to face. But you try hard to ignore those issues. It will bring America down to hell again. There are several issues that the USA still has to face.

  The first one is the wealth inequality and the deterioration of income growth. You have to face the issue that the wealth inequality society will bring down the consumption. A better wealth distributed nation can bring the most happiness to its own people. Do not forget that China is a communist society. It means that China can take away anything from the rich anytime and anywhere as long as those are in the land of the Red China. The wealth redistribution process has just begun. We see those big corporations which import commodities taking away the profit between input and output now all have some troubles. The growth of China stock market focuses on the new economy, including the game industry, the internet service, the e-commerce and the IT industries. It uses less commodities or use commodities much smarter than those big corporations. Red China is changing itself from the export-driven nation into a self-sustained nation. It uses its own wealth to change its society. China is in a progressive path which changes gradually and makes itself even better. The growth content of China stock market changes quite a lot which can not be shown from the traditional indices, containing those big corporation which use commodities import and manufacturing export to make their own profits. Those days are gone. Red China makes itself to be an import replaceable nation which grows those new economy corporations or industries. All those growth builds on the foundation of a better wealth-redistributed society. The wealth discrepancies may be larger than we know in China, but China is a communist nation which can easily take the wealth from some specific people' hands. If Chinese government thinks something should be adjusted, it can change the rule and deprive the wealth from somebody in one day. It is much stronger than the USA which needs the congress to change tax code. People may think it just shows how China does not care about the human rights. For those poor Chinese people, they may think the opposite. Chinese government is in title to take away all those unjustice in one day and bring those wealth back to the state. It is the benefit of communist. American people use different way to have a better wealth-redistributed society. American people try hard to convince congressmen and try hard to convince the rich that a better society with larger consumption power depends on a good wealth-redistributed mechanism. Now the congress refuses to let American people have a better wealth-redistributed society. What can you do about it? A better wealth-redistributed society brings the most wealth and jobs for the nation. It is a texbook example written by American scholars.  

  The second issue is tied to the first one which is the mortgage rate in the USA is a little bit too high right now. American people can not earn that much. A higher mortgage rate will force American people to sell their homes again if the prime mortgage rate goes higher and higher above the increase of payroll. We find the monetary poicy of Fed can not resolve the conflict. It needs the congress to intervene or the government to get into to solve the issue. A rising home price is good for American people. But a rising mortgage rate is harm to American people, especially to those who have decent jobs and want to have sweet homes. You have to come out with some solutions to help all those families with mortgage burden. A good cycle begins from those families with homes. Those people can save more and help others to have their life back. The power of consumption can be brought out if America government tries hard to bring down the mortgage rate. Don't forget, the 70% growth of GDD in the USA is associated with the consumption. American people have to help themselves. God help those who help themselves. 

Dear American people:

  This time you should write letters to your senators and congress asking their helps about the jobless benefit extension. The still fragile unemployment rate of US may be more servere than we think when those long-unemployed people want to find jobs again. The unemployment rate will go up rather than go down in the near future as the US economic prospect goes a little bit well. It means the SafeNet of US society needs to be strengthened rather than to be weaken. The United States of America needs a big hand for its own people and the jobless benefit extension is a must-be rather than just a choice. Right now, American people face the most serious wealth distributed issue in the world, that is the 20% US citizens own the 80% US total wealth. Your congressmen refuse to change the tax-code system to rebalance the situation. The most dire situation is the yield of US 10-year treasuries goes even higher which is expected to be go even higher this year. Those situation will further increase the burden of US society, especially on those ones who have mortgage to pay. The increasing cost will deteriorate personal payment ability and even have some harm to the ecomnomy.

  The consumption is always and the most important driving force to the US economy. The jobless benefit extension can helpe the poor to have the ability to consume. It all goes back to the positive side of US society. It also help people to have some postivie energy to face their own unemployments. I think American people should help each other and try hard to be that way for a period of time. I think the six month extension is needed,especially when we still need to see if the unemployment rate can be stablized at the seven percent. If the unemployment rate deteriorates again, then the jobless benefit extension can be the helper to stop the losing trend of consumption. If the US economy goes well as we expect, the jobless benefit extension would cost nothing as people get reemployed and the number who need the jobless benefit will go down. Either the first one or the latter one just shows the need of jobless benefit extension for American people. Please help the US economy to go well and to flourish! I think the world will love to see the US become a stronger nation again. May God bless the US.  

Dear American people:

  Now you face the new paradigm again. This time is another revolution you have to face. The online sales replaces the department store sales. We see the Macy goes into trouble. We see the temporary employment in December does not happen. We also see the retail sales still rises in December, 2013. It means the manufacturer still get what they want but the lower-paid jobs are further decreasing in the USA. Now the decreasing trend spreads into the service categories. It means that American people can have better service from the Internet shopping and better price bargaining when they go to real retail stores. But the lower-skilled payroll will be further decreased as people know how to reduce their purchasing costs. It brings another big issue which is the useless training of college education. If the college can not provide some departments which can help students to be the one with higher-skilled or the society-needed-skilled worker, then we will see a lot of bachelors don't have jobs after they paid higher college tuitions and become the society burden as they can not pay back their student loans. It is a serious issue.

  We also face the same issue here in Taiwan. We really hope the USA can resolve the issue, then we can follow the same strategy to help our children. The issue is even serious in China as the emerging of Alibaba TaoBao Net. The real stores on the street can no longer survive when the Alibaba TaoBao Net can sell everything with lower price and same quality. It is the problem we have to face for the whole human races.

  美國最近有一則新聞,直指美國有八百零二萬人,希望尋找全職的工作但只能找到兼職的工作,如果過往從西元2009年以來所謂的就業指的是這些人的話,那從西元2009年到西元2013年美國所創造出來的工作機會大部分都是兼職的,因為到目前西元2013年為止,美國從西元2009年以來大約創造出了九百萬個工作機會,亦即有九百萬人就業,如果今天這八百零二萬人的工作是從西元2009年後才創造出來的,那美國真實的全職工作機會只創造出了一百萬個而已!

  當然我們知道這樣的推論是不對的,因為美國境內有三億多人口,任何時刻的兼職工作應該都有五到六百萬人之譜,換句話說美國在西元2009年到西元2013年底,其兼職的工作大約創造出了兩百多萬人,我們用最保守的兩百五十萬人左右來計算,因為美國從西元2009年以來創造了九百萬個工作機會,那美國真實的長期全職工作機會大約只創造出了五百五十萬到六百萬個左右,而非九百萬個長期全職的工作機會!!因此如果過往一般兼職的工作機會估計是六百萬左右,美國在西元2009年年底估計原來有但後來失去的工作機會大約是一千兩百到一千三百萬個,因此美國大約還需要創造七百萬個長期全職的工作機會,這跟之前我一兩個月在這個部落格的評估,美國還需要六百萬到七百萬個全職的工作機會是相近的!!

  只是這樣的評估還有一個盲點是當初估計從西元2009年年底計算,失去的的一千兩百到一千三百萬個工作,至少應該也有一兩百萬個是兼職的工作,因此此時我們該採用的計算是這些曾經失去的兼職工作機會應該都已經回復,因此才會有八百零二萬人有兼職的工作,剩下需要計算的是全職工作機會,那大約還需要四百萬到五百萬個左右,才能使得美國從西元2007-2009年失去工作的人通通回到工作崗位上面!!因此實際的數據是美國應該還有在四百五十萬人原來有工作的,現在失去了工作,因此還需要找工作!

  以美國目前最保守的評估,一年產生出兩百到兩百二十萬個工作機會,如果美國的經濟成長率還是能夠維持在一年2.5%到3%左右,那美國應該還需要兩年就能讓這些人都回到工作崗位,只是可能不一定是全職的工作!!因此預估美國在西元2015年年底大約就會讓當初失去工作的人都能找到工作,剛好美國的Obama總統做到西元2016年年初,到那時Obama總統的政績就是,讓原來失去工作的人在他主政的八年內重新找到工作!!

Dear American people:

  We see the latest data that there are 8.02 million of American people have their part-time jobs and most of those can not get a decent full-time job. It is no surprise that in Taiwan, we have the same problem. But our problem is the same as Japan. We have a company who hires a lot of people and dispatch those people into different companies for a couple of months. It is called the dispatched job. It is equivalent to your part-time job because those people may not find another job after the specific program is over and have to wait until anthor company ask the firm of dispatched job to support for its project. Therefore, it just shows the important of Obamacare. A national healthcare system is an important social safty net for those people who just can have part-time jobs. And it should be discriminated that those people with full-time jobs should pay more insurance fee compared with those ones with only part-time jobs. That is what we have in Taiwan.

  很多人都喜歡談美國人自我催眠的CPI計算,通貨膨脹跟物價膨脹此時是應該正視聽的,通貨膨脹指的是持續性的物價上漲,但是物價膨脹是一次性的效果,比如油價上漲一定會導致物價膨脹,但不一定會造成通貨膨脹,原因就在於即便油價上漲,廠商或許一開始跟著反映此一情況,但是如果大家口袋都沒錢,結果銷量很差,最後廠商還是得被逼著降低售價,忍痛求銷售量的增加來彌補可能面對到的損失,先追求損益兩平以求能夠生存下去,其實這就是美國目前的寫照,那您或許會問中國呢?

  中國的通貨膨脹來自於物價膨脹外加中國百姓的薪水有增加,因此在大家口袋都有錢的情況下,廠商比較能夠將生產條件中的生產要素價格上漲轉嫁,因此是一個比較良性的循環,這也是我們見到中國有通貨膨脹,但過往日本總是產生出通貨緊縮的原因!其實美國如果沒有進行大規模的QE,美國應該也是陷入通貨緊縮的泥淖當中的,因為大家都沒錢的情況下,這些商品的價格在低可能都無人購買,最後可能造成的是廠商的破產與關店,這點從WalMart過往的財報與銷售不理想就能略知一二,連廉價品都賣不好,不正說明了美國人口袋沒有錢?因此就美國的CPI來看確實是呈現出通貨緊縮的情境,尤其是美元貶值對美國人的購買力更是傷害,因此在這個改善美國自身財務情境之下,只會見到美國面臨通貨緊縮的情境,這也是為何Fed總說一有通縮的情況出現,QE還是要繼續進行的緣故!!

  目前我們期待在2014年的年中,從2009年之後計算,美國就能有一千萬人重新就業,我們更預計美國到2015年年中,大抵上會有一千兩百五十萬人就業,到那時美國的失業率大約會降低到6.4%左右,只是美國跟臺灣遇到相同的問題,美國人的薪資也是倒退十五年以上的,美國高收入的工作機會也正在逐年消失當中,但是美國的MBA卻是年年學費上漲,大約是一年六萬美元左右,兩年就要十二萬美元,大約是新台幣360萬左右,外加生活費與其他,大抵上四五百萬新台幣是少不了的,試問美國有多少人有能力去念MBA,這些學費的貸款,美國人又要花多少年去還清?特別是在目前很多美國人的薪資都是倒退十五年的情境下,我們如何預期美國能夠有比較好的經濟表現?

  要達到美國經濟持續就業是非常難的,美國最新的數據是,從2012年十一月到2013年的十一月間,美國幾個大州的失業率變動: 俄亥俄州從6.8%上升到7.4%,路易西安那州從5.7%上升到6.3%,麻州從6.7%上升到7.1%,田納西州從7.7%上升到8.1%,奧克拉荷馬州(巴菲特的家)從4.9%上升到5.4%,北卡羅蘭納州從9.4%下降到7.4%,新澤西州從9.6%下降到7.8%,佛羅里達州從8%下降到6.4%,南卡羅蘭納州從8.6%下降到7.1%,西維吉尼亞州從7.5%下降到6.1%!因為美國人是可以遷徙的,因此從數據變動比較大的幾各州來看確實比較能準確反應就業的變動,只是還是要提醒的是,失業率的計算要以去登記在找工作者來看,因此有些州失業率上升不代表它們的就業不佳,背後代表的是原來找不到工作的,現在開始去登記,對於未來可能找到工作反倒是充滿著期待,從前五大州的失業率下降比重都高達1.5%以上可以見到美國就業的改善,而從失業率增加的前五周期平均失業率增加大約是0.5%左右,可以見到很多人又重新開始找工作,只是俄亥俄州跟麻州都是工業與比較先進產業的大州,失業率增加說明了美國的製造業還是疲弱的事實,而佛羅里達州失業率大幅降低說明了美國近期旅館與餐旅服務業確實是提供了不少就業,美元貶值對於外人旅遊幅度的增加確實是有幫助的,其他州的情況就必須從各州民眾的儲蓄與家庭資產負債表來看,原來負債比重高的州,可能在資產負債表的調整上面還是不足,由此也說明了美股的上漲對於這些人的財富效果不是不大,而是這些人大部分都將這些賺到的錢拿去還債,而非增加儲蓄與消費,因此這些州的失業率還是可能增加,只是增加的原因也可能來自於原來沒找工作的又出來找工作.又或者是別州遷戶籍進去的,因為這些州才有工作機會!!

  美國過往的實證說明了美國的經濟成長有百分之七十是來自於美國人的消費(consumption),但是美國今年耶誕節假期其實銷售量並不如去年,這並非是壞事,因為另一項數據顯示美國人的儲蓄率從原來的百分之五以下已經逐步攀升到百分之十左右,有的州比較好已經超過兩位數,這正說明了美國人正在調整自身的資產負債表,將自身的負債降低,最大的比重自然是房貸跟學貸還有信貸,這對美國是好現象!!

  另外從每年的經濟成長元素來看,美國在汽車工業上面的消費其實最能夠帶動美國的經濟,因此美國需要大力推動電動車的發展,一來降低自身對於原油的需求,美國能在此油價高漲的時代將自身的頁岩油與天然氣大量外銷,另外美國也能善用自身的核電工業,因為美國未來要用核電動力取代石油發電,最重要的自然是核電工業!當然也可能是太陽能產業,如果美國的技術能夠進步到一個太陽能的電廠能產生出雷同於一個核能電廠的電力,或許那也是很好的!其次帶動美國經濟的是網路購物,基本民生消費和家庭修繕與家具販售,因此美國很清楚地見到了網路購物取代了一般量販店的購物,這也是WalMart的股價不振但Amazon的股價創新高的原因,另外家庭修繕與家具販售說明了美國家用房地產的復甦,這樣的趨勢需要被維護,那美國的房貸利率就必須得到支撐,不能永無止境的上漲,Fed在進行自身的tapering時必須考量其他的經濟政策,來幫助房貸戶並且維持家用房地產價值的持續增長!!美國最新到2013年十月份的數據顯示,舊車買賣銷售佔全部消費比重大約是2.9%,Truck與SUV是4%,而新車是2.5%,由此能夠見到美國在油耗上面確實多所考量,只是SUV過往都被以為是耗油的,而舊車耗油性被相對便宜的購買價格遮掩,這裡也說明了美國的消費力還是不足,但是美國人還是需要汽車代步工具,只是美國需要汰換掉這些舊式油耗高的汽車可能還有段長路要走;因此美國的車貸是增加的,而其中購車當中增加最多的是Truck與SUV,總體新車增加的比例還比較小一點,美國的汽車工業對於就業的幫助確實是非常大的,這點在Alan Greespan先生擔任Fed主席時,就特別注意此一數據的變動!!

  只是美國零售業從實體走向虛擬,這對於美國比較低薪工作就業者來說是一大隱憂,美國的實體店面必須強化自身的競爭力,找尋哪些無法透過虛擬電子商務來達成的商品加以販賣,最直接的就是消費者的現場體驗,臺灣很多量販店現在都強化自身生鮮熟食的販售,比如熱騰騰的麵包,熱騰騰的熟食,因為消費者可以直接去量販店買回家食用,如此就比較省去烹煮的時間,這些都是美國人必須再用心的地方,那些大型量販店能提供但網路銷售不能提供的商品與服務,有的大型量販店還提供理髮跟腳底按摩等服務,這些都是無法透過網路行銷達成的!!

  總的來說,美國的經濟復甦只走到了半山腰,要爬到山頂還需要幾個要件,第一個當然是持續的就業,失業率必須低於6.5%以下;再者美國的薪資必須提高,美國人的薪資增長速度太慢說明了美國財富分配不平均的事實,至少得讓正準備去念MBA的學生能夠在工作三到五年之間還清學費,目前的資料顯示至少需要五到七年的時間,這個時間相較於過去已經拉長了兩年到三年,由此也能見到美國薪資的倒退;第三個要件是美國人自身的儲蓄率要提高到百分之十五以上,簡單的說賺一百元至少要存十五元;這些要件都達成,美國才能繼續經濟復甦的腳步,個人與家庭的資產負債表必須先有所改善,才能進一步談降低政府負債與央行資產負債表中公債與房貸抵押債的釋出與降低!!

Dear American people:

  I am totally disagree with the statement of Mr. Ben Bernanke on his bad luck about the miscalculation of the-not-grow-that-faster US economy. It is not his fault. The USA is a free-market society. No one can blame those big US corporations, with ton of money on hands, don't want to invest on equipment or employ more Americans, but use those money to buy back their shares and try hard to reduce their borrowing costs when they issue bonds or take loans from banks. Managers in those corporations just show their concious and greedy. Greedy does bring good thing to them this time. US corporations just take the experience of Japan deflation years seriously when Japanese corporations use their lower interest rate environment to invest heavily on specific industries without considering the world supply and demand. Now they face fierceless competitions from South Korea and China. China wants to build its own industries and even to have their own standards on those industries.(Of course, here I mean 4G-TD-LTE) So Japan corporations face many challenges. It will not happen in the USA where US corporations don't heavily expand their own capacities in the US lower-rate environment.  So it is not Mr. Ben Bernanke's fault, and Americans may even thank Mr. Bernanke for this situation. It is a right decision that managers of US corporations decide not to overinvest this time. If people want to blame something or someone, just blame this greedy free-market society and their openess to every important ecconomic thought. If those industries have bigger innovations, it may let those investment overcapacities worth nothing when the innovation brings new technology and new ways of living, just as the case of Japnese corporations faces these days. Therefore, US corporations keep their cautious are without no reason. They are waiting for the real demand increase from ordinary people and try hard to grab market shares when the market imporves. Everybody is waithing for the revival of world economy. It just shows that the science does prevail. It is also the reason why the US has the yield around 3% of 10-years US treasuries lately. Market prevails as the supply and demand controls the equilibrium. Market will always be the best solution for the efficiency of economy. It should be remined that, in this open world, no one can control other people's minds. The only thing Mr. Fed can do is try hard to persuade people to do some goodies to others. Mr. Ben Bernanke is a great man, just as those Fed chairmen, Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan. Mr. Greenspan is the one who is sophsticate enough to manipulate people's mind. Mr. Greenspan is a master who knows how to let Mr. Market not to panic on all kind of situations. On the contrary, Mr. Ben Bernanke is a honest guy who pray to God everyday. Hope his QEs and OT can work out and bring the USA out of wood in a shorter period of time. I think Mr. Bernanke is succeed on the job and his goal. He bring all American people out of troubles and those terrible stroms. He is a great man. Mr. Bernanke will be remebered as Mr. Fed for what he did in those years.

  Mr. Greenspan is one of the kind we should remember his legacy. Even people blame him not to let the bubble be pricked by the proper policy of Fed. But he insists that we just can not manipulate financial markets. (instead people's mind, I guess, and Mr. Greenspan did manipulate people's mind. He is good at it.) In the Fed term of Mr. Greenspan, he shows the world succeesfully that the USA does have much higher growth rate potetial compared with other well-developed nations. The reason is still unknown until today. We still do not know quite well how it happens in the USA. But we just know that the USA is indeed a promised land. Of course, a lot of economist and social scientists will argue that the higher growth rate is due to several reasons. The first one is the concept of free society. Everyone in the USA can try hard to commercialize everything that is deemed to be valuable, including gambling, pron movies and others. If the law is not prohibited, American people will love to try hard to promote those ideas and make a fortune. Therefore, we see the booming of internet commercials and other extraordinary business models that are not found in other nations before. The seond reason that the USA has higher growth rate potential is due to the well developed society and the most flexible adaptation society. The corporations in the USA can pay higher salaries to those talented people that can not be found in other nations. Under this situation, the USA absorbs the most talented people all around the world which brings a lot of goodies to all American people. The third one is due to the well developed law and irs strickly implemented law enforcement. When American people realize something wrong which can jeopardize the society, they just try hard to bring the justice to all Americans. Even it may take a longer period of time, American people will still try hard to let it happen. Bring the justice in font of God and all American people and show the world that the USA is really a country who pursues the fairness to all of its people. The well wealth-distrubited system is the fourth reason I think American people had forgotten many years from now but try hard to remember it lately. I think American people will realize a better nation is built on the foundation of fairness society and self-sustainable happiness. That is nothing but a truth. Even Mr. Bernanke will see this super-unexplained-growth-magic happens again after Mr. Bernanke ends his duty of Mr. Fed. Now we will have Mrs. Fed when Mrs. Yellen gets her job.

  Now, Americans are on the right path. And all American people has finally realized a lot of things and get sobers this time. It is a good thing and we should congragulate to all American people and thank for what they have done and have not done in those horrible years. But we are still looking forward to seeing a promising America with fairness on tax-code, healthcare and education reforms. May God bless the US.

Dear American people:

  Mr. Ben Bernanke just helps American people to be in the half way of recovery process that means the rest part depends on the effort of all American people. The solution for the reduction of Fed's even larger balance sheet is the savings of USA. American people have to save even more to keep their well-above-the-world living standards alive. Mr. Ben Bernanke and his fellows do the right thing. They think the unemployment rate has to be tamed down. They treat the unemployment rate of the US as the first priority is nothing but a right decision. When people have jobs, they can pay taxes and do not need support from the government. When the economy gets better, their payrolls will increase. Then a good cycle begins. People can pay even more taxes to the government, and the Fed's book can be reduced little by little. Fed has done its part, people think the rest part is not left to God but to all American people. American fellows decide how and in what way the USA to pay down the US government debt and to trim down the Fed's book.

  My Dear American people, the future is on your hand instead of others. You are in title to decide which path you want to be. Which way to decrease the Fed's balance sheet does have different costs and different wealth redistribution effects. If American people choose to increase the payroll tax on the wealthy people, then we do expect the larger sum of taxes collection can reduce the Fed's book in a faster pace. If American people choose to reduce the Fed's book by tax collections of all American people without changing its tax code, it does have to take a longer period of time to solve the Fed's huge balance sheet. It all depends on which path American people choose. My Dear American Fellows, it is a cross road you face today and it will trigger even more side effects if you choose a different path instead of a right one. And your kids and offsprings do have to take all these consequences. Please think through it carefully. People in the rest of world have to leave the decision to yourselves. That is not the choice people in other world can decide.

  For the growth increase of GDP, according to the traditional American textbook on Economics, the USA should have antoher leading industries to gain their momentum and have larger growth prospects. American people have to revolutionize its anto industries and its transportation industries to catch up with the world. The high speed railway system may be a good idea if American people have budget for it. Some emerging industries can help American people devote their energy and money to have a better growth rate for the USA. That is what American people should take care in the following decade.

Dear American people:

  In the principle of Economics' textbook, market failure is what we concern. Now the 2008 financial crisis is an example of market failure. In the situation of market failure, we all know that the supply-demand can not longer perform well as used to be. So we need a wise dictator to reallocate a lot of resources in order to help people have their lives back. That is the reason why Fed has accumulated 4 trillion MBS and other gobernment bonds in its balance sheet. Mr. Ben Bernanke plays his role as the dictator to order the market selling those bonds to the Fed. This time American people show the world again that science does prevail. American people are with good luck to have Mr. Ben Bernanke, Mrs. Yellen, Mr. Paul Krugman and Mr. Obama. They all play their proper roles in the crisis solving. But all the remedy is only half way.

  First of all, the wealth of US society is largerly decreasing from the 1980's when American people learnt so much from the culture of their horrible credit card using. American do not have enough wealth to keep the usual living standard anymore. It is the reason why we see the free-falling property prices and a lot of non-sustainable asset prices. It is not the fault of hedge funders. It is not the fault of investment bankers. It is the inevitable thing when American people get used to those good old days and stop to think how come those easy lives can go on without any cost. For real, in order to keep the living standard, American people need to accumulate even larger wealth instead less. It means that American people have to save even more to push those asset prices even higher. If American people do not have those wealth accumulation, then they have to borrow from other nations to support their living standard. It is the reason why Fed uses the bond buying strategy to help American people have a decent life as used to be. American people still have to keep in mind that, in the end, the 4 trillion bonds has to be sold back to the market eventually. It is not a free lunch. That is the reason why people are preaching "It is the time that American people have to save a lot." Then American people can use those savings to buy back those bonds stocked in the Fed's book to prepare for their retirements. It is not yet to say the 2008's crisis is over. It is not. All those recovery processes just begin now. We may have to wait for another decade to see American people have saving rate more than 15%. When the time comes, American people can absorb the 4 trillion bonds totally. Then the recovery process can be said to near the end.

  It is the perfect example of financial market failure for the crisis in 2008 in the USA that is due to the lack of funding of the USA. Fed's Mr. Ben Bernanke uses the unconventional way to resolve this painful issue, but it has to pay a big prize if those bonds Fed holds go default. That is the reason why we do keep our eyes on the growth rate of USA. Unless the GDP growth rate is too low, people still have faith that American people can save even more than the ages of 1980's and 1990's. American people have to save more to solve the problem of Fed's larger book. When the time comes, we will see that Fed's balance sheet can shrink back to 800 million US dollars. Before it, the things we have to do are (1)Keep the USA to grow even more, (2)Keep the unemplyment rate of USA even lower, (3)Let American people to find a new way to grow in this dynamic world. All those things can help the Fed to accumulate a great deal of interest payments from those bonds it absorbs.

  To be honest, people do not want to say something ugly. But the tax code change may be also a good solution. Because the wealth people do have their ways to create personal wealth, let those wealth people to take the burden is fair. The reason behind is a stable society create even more wealth for those wealth people. In simple terms, it means that those wealthy people can get even wealthier just because the society is stable and their money machine can run even smoother without interuption. It also means when the society needs help, those wealthy people have to take the burden more instead of less becasue they benefit  more than the poor. If those wealthy people can pay even more taxes, then the US government can use those funds to pay back its ordinary bond issues and buy back those bonds from the Fed. Then the Fed's balance sheet can be shrunk. If we can not expect the thing happens, then we have to wait ordinary American people to have more money in theor pockets in order to pay more taxes. At the time, the US government can use those tax collection to buy back those bonds from the Fed and write them down. It is another way to decrease the balance sheet of Fed. Of course, the latter one needs many years to resolve the Fed's problem right now. But the first solution needs concensus from all American people that the higher tax paid from wealthy people will not hurt those people much. The reason is obvious that they have their money machine in  their hands. And the money machine just bring them even larger wealth when the GDP growth rate can be kept around 2.5% or more each year. So they have responsible to pay more in order to help the nation, we call it the USA, and the poor. It is the sprit of Christian, the ability one helps the inability one.

  Anther way to resolve the 4 trillion in Fed's book may be try to let those printed greenback flow back to the USA. Investment immigration policy is what the Republican preach. People do not know if it does work or not. Let those wealthy people become Americans may bring a big fortune to the States. And it will increase different taxes revenue. Then the US government can use them to buy back those bonds from the Fed and write them out. To be honest, it is not a logical idea. The reason is the USA has the most numbers of wealthy people in the world. You have Bill Gates, Warren Buffets and other wealthy people. They are all Americans. Depend on other nation's wealthy people to become Americans is pretty dumb and illogic. The Republican have to think seriously about the issue of tax code change. It is not just for the present American people, but also for the future generation.

Dear American fellows:

  The problem American people face today can be concluded to three issues. The first one is the unemployment issue. We know it just gets better. The second issue is the house mortgage rate. We know it needs the wisdom of Fed officers to deal with. The third issue is the currency relative value. It will trigger the whole world to reallocate their money in all the financial markets as the US dollar appreciates or depreciates.

  We do expect the US government to trim down its debt in 2014 and go on further hereaftrer. We do expect the US corporations to have some decent profits in the near term. We do expect the unemployment rate of USA is getting smaller in 2014. All those expectations lead to a conclusion that the greenback should not depreciate with respect to a lot of other currencies. The appreciating US dollar does bring foreign investors hold even more US Treasuries and US MBS mortgage bonds, then we can expect it may bring down the long-term interest rate of USA. Also, the flowing back of greenback to the US can help the Fed to withdraw all the liquidity it creates from 2009 until now.

  But the risk behind still needs to be explored, those ones including the not-that-well American economy, the still-fragile US job market and the not-as-we-expect-to-grow US corporation profits. All those issues should be monitored carefully under the US authorities and also need to be further accomodated if something goes wrong.

  If there is a hope, then we should follow. If there is a light, then we should chase. If there is fear, then we should face. My Dear American fellows, it is a turning point for all Americans. We do expect there are 10 million American people get their jobs back at the end of 2014. We do expect the USA get its feet back on the growth track with GDP growth rate around 3.5% per year. People think that the goal may bring you truely happiness. May God bless you.

Dear American Fellows:

  The other issue is about the now much higher American mortgage rate. It is a big issue right now, especially for those Americans who own their houses. They are afraid that the mortgage rate will go even higher but their payrolls can not go up with those mortgage payments. That is the reason why people in America expect the stock market may not go too high for a period of time. Employers do hope the stock market can stay in a range until they have their payrolls been raised by their employees. I know it is a pretty odd thing. But now the 30% American people own almost the whole America. What can you say to the rest part of American people? They own nothing and they may have a lot of payments to pay for. Those people may have student loans, car loans, mortgage and credit card loans or others. They need some promising jobs to pay down all those bills. What they need is a decent life! For those people who own a house and have mortgage to pay, the mortgage rate does count. It is the reason why people hope those financial investors should not leave the bond markets behind. The US authority should rebuild the confidence to make investors all around the world to buy US Tresuries in order to bring down the yield, especially the long-term Treasury yield.

  The issue just leads us back to the most important problem - the lasting of quantitative easing. Now, if the Fed wants to taper the MBS bonds buying. Then all the thing Fed should care about FIRST is try hard to bring down the long-term mortgage rate relating with the long-term bond yield. That is the reason why a lot of people think that it may be a good time to use the policy of operation twist (OT) again. The Fed should buy some long-term bond and short some short-term bond together to bring down the long-term interest rate. We do know that the effect of OT is not as good as QEs from the experience of 2009-2013. But it seems to be a way to ease down the long-term interest rate. Or the Fed should create other strategies to help those people with house mortgages and to ease their burdens this time after the Fed stop to use the policy of QEs such as subsidies to those homeowners who already own the house for years. The US government can extend its unemployment benefits, I do not think it is a bad idea to subsidize those people who both own a house and have decent jobs.

  The USA is the country who respects the market mechanism and wants it to run smoothly for all American people. I think Americans should keep the tradition that way. American people should try hard to help those people with decent jobs to own their own houses and help the others to have some hope for their own nation. The mortgage rate issue should be the first priolrity issue in the coming of 2014 when the US ten-year treasury yield is around 2.88% and the thirty-year jumbo ARM mortgage rate is around 4.57%. It is pretty high for ordinary Americans and they do cry for help lately. How to bring down the long-term ARM mortgage rate without hurting the growth of US should be the first priority issue to the US congress. We do know that the interest rate should not be too low in order to create wrong incentive for corporation to waste the resource for bad business. But we also face the issue if the long term interest rate goes to high and the payroll can not increase with the interest rate, then the home owner may have some trouble for their daily spending decisions. It is the problem American people face.

Dear American Fellows:

  It is a cross road we face in this dynamic world. We have to decide several things before we invest our own money in those markets. The first question we have to ask ourselves is what the future we want to choose to live in. We want a well distributed world where people have some money in their pockets or a world with higher-paid specialists but a lot of people live in poor. If we want the first, then Americans should think hard about the tax code issue. We already know it will not happen because your congressmen and cogresswomen just pass the budget of next year. It does not state anything about the tax code change and it does not describe how to make a better system for all Americans. Those people in the congress think that the USA is OK with the first scenario and they do not want the country to change its course. Therefore, I take that as the consensus or some kind of agreements among all American people. Then we know the answer for the first question is that Americans want to choose a society with higher-paid specialists. You want people to have a decent life with great ability in his/her own field. Then we have to go to the second question, that is, what kind of financial environment Americans want to choose. The preconditions now are (1)the USA has a lot of national debt, (2)the USA has some important issues about its own unemployment rate, (3)the USA has some issues about its industrial renovation and its financial system reconsideration. The Dodd-Frank and Volcker Rule are both some guidelines for the future of USA, but it is not the guideline how American people can choose to live.

  For those preconditions, it seems that we need a weaker currency of US dollar at the first glance. But it may be a wrong conception when the world is fragile as the US dollar depreciates that much already. It is time that American people restart to consider use its currency to do something. The appreciating US dollar may help stabilize the financial situation of poor countries such as Argentina or other reserve-lack ones. American people can use their pruchasing power to help the world to grow at the time. And American people should encourage the Eorupean people to have a weaker currency when the US dollar is stablized and try to appreciate compared with British Pound and the Euro. We already know that some European countries have serious unemployment problem. A weaker Euro can easy their pains and promote their output, especially those south European nations who depend on its natural resources and well desinged product export. This is the way which American people can help the world- A appreciating US dollar. I know the lastest US election has the issue that a lot of American people hate its currency to go that low and they just do not want to invest abroad to take those unnecessary risks they think. Therefore, the strong US dollar policy has to be reconsidered NOW. The only think it concerns me is that the strong US dollar may hurt the profit of globalized US corporations when near two-third of their profits may come from abroad. So if the direction is what American people want, then those companies should prepare for the issue sooner rather than later. And the strong US dollar will come even if people do not like it so much because we already know that, in 2014, the US government will eliminate the extension of unemployment benefits and the US government cut will be in a larger scale compared with the cut in 2013. The most important thing is the US governemnt cuts the retirement pension of government employers. The latest US military soldiers will not get that much pension when they get reired compared with those ones in the age of 62 now. And the US employers face the same situations. We expect it would be cut steadily when the congress thinks that is the only way to reduce the future burdern of the USA. It shows the reason why the US dollar should appreciates instead of depreciates. In the near future, we expect the US greeback should flow back to the USA in a faster pace than people think and the US dollar should appreciate with respect to currencies of many countries. 

Dear American People:

  Now is the time to have a dream....

  Natural unemployment rate: 6%

  Saving Rate :15%

  GDP growth : 3.5 to 4% each year

  I am still familiar with the terminology several years ago, before the 2008 financial crisis, poeple used to say the USA is in the new paradigm. Now Americans can have it. Now is the time to have a bigger dream of this new paradigm. The definition of productivity has been ruled and rewritten several years ago as the society goes in to the totally service-oriented one. Now is the time to chase this bigger dream without hesitation.

  Dear American people, we all expect in the end of 2014 or around the beginning of 2015, the USA will have 10 million get employed from the those great job losses beteween 2008 and 2009. Also, we still expect the USA can create another six to seven million jobs to have American people get employed. On the time, the unemployment rate will around the 6.3 to 6.4%. If all goes well and keeps its pace, then we may see the unemployment rate approaches 6% again. At the time, the GDP growth rate will near 4% eah year.

  My Dear American fellows, now is the time to dream big and to have those dreams be the reality.

Dear American people:

  Just as Mr. Obama shows to the world, Mr. Mandela teaches the world a lot of things. The most important one is to keep faith on ourselves. We are mankind, and we have intelligent to solve those conflicts between us or among us. We should have faith instead of fear on our minds. From 2008 to today, the America has created Eight Million Jobs for its own people. And we do expect the country can create more than two million jobs each year hereafter if the USA can keep a faster pace of growth. What a great accomplishment American people did!! What a great achievement that American people show to the world!!

  My Dear Amercian fellows, you have done a good job. But the world is still waiting. We are waiting for another miracle you can bring to your own people and the world. The unemplyment rate reaches to 6.5%, the saving rate increases to 10%. It means that the USA still lacks of six to seven millions jobs and everyone with a decent job can save more than ten percent of their earns. That is the goal. It is also a hope to American people and the rest of the world.

  My Dear American people, Mr. Mandela shows us even the world is full of struggle, even people sometimes turn their backs on us, if we have hope instead of fear, we can make a better world. Just keep on going, maybe like Forrest Gump, without looking back and having any second thought. It will be a great moment for American people to show the world. And there will be another miracle that American fellows can create, which is the SUM of HOPE instead of fear.

  May God bless you!!Sincerely....

Dear American people:

  Although the number is great, the USA still needs six million jobs. It is the thing you should not forget. Help each other to have a decent life. Help each other to have happiness.

  American people have to think about several questions seriously. The first one is what kind of life you want to live. And the second one is what kind of society you want your country to be. The Obama healthcare may not be the first priority. But what is the replacement? The shale oil and its related jobs may not be a good choice. But what is the alternative? I think All American people have to think HARD about those issues and try HARD to help each other have a decent life.

  That is all you have to do. May God bless you.

  不可諱言的,Morningstar確實是美國共同基金分析的專家,甚至也能說是美國金融市場的專家,從ETF,原物料概念相關投資,成長型投資,價值型投資,到各類特定的投資策略,包含高beta,高Alpha,或者是low-volatility premium與傳統的小型股價格貼水(small-cap premium)等等;在這些投資策略當中,我們見到了美國過往數十年以來的金融市場發展史,從Graham之後的美國證券分析,始終都是美國財務領域中非常引人注意與眾人期待的金融工具與評估指標;而今美國遇到了兩百年以來最大的貧富差距,讓人對於美國諸多的金融評價方式,多少產生的質疑,正如同這一年以來大家對於日本股市的質疑是一樣的,當一國的百分之八十的財富集中於百分之二十的人手中時,其實股票市場的預期反應的不過是那百分之二十者的投資決策與判斷而已;目前如果美國這百分之二十覺得賺夠想退場,但剩下百分之八十的美國人卻連自身的再就業都還沒能達成,美國金融市場的公債殖利率能夠在短短不到半年上升了一點二個百分點,其實也正說明了少數人持有多數金融資產的事實,試問過往建構於百分之六十的財富集中於百分之五十人手裡的這些金融模型,是否還能適用於今天這個低利率但卻仍然無法就業的美國身上??這倒是很值得大家深思的地方!!

可愛且說話不算話的蒨:

  道瓊指數在2013/11/19日的臺北清晨創新高(美國時間11/18/2013),只說明了美國股市已經接近了獲利滿足點,道瓊指數的計算公式只有個股的股價,其比重不是按照每天的交易量去計算,而是按這一個固定比重,因此其計算方式

    DJ index = sum(Price(i))/W

  簡單的說當特定股票的股價創新高時,因為成分比重沒變,因此道瓊的指數就會創新高,但是可能這樣是假象,因為沒有甚麼交易量,因為散戶勇敢進場買特定股票,但是法人已經退場了,所以美國的強弱一般來說看的是S&P500或者是Wilshore x000等其他指數!!

  道瓊的創新高是市場希望股票繼續上漲的訊號,但絕對不是結果,通常道瓊創新高後的幾個月之內,就可能出現法人出脫完畢,美股進入空頭期初段的情況!!小朋友!!所以反而投資要想清楚!!

  其他關於Dow Jones Industrial Index的內容與計算可詳見

   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average#Calculation

Dear American Fellows:

  The term of Mr. Bernanke is about the end. To be honest, I am a little unhappy to Mr. Obama when Mr. president turns his back to such a great man who helps the nation so much in the distressed time. Mr. Bernanke should be renominated to be the Fed leader again. Of course, it does not happen that way.

  Mr. Bernanke is a man with conscious. He knows what he should do and what he should not do. Mr. Bernanke knows a lot of things. Mr. Bernanke made many good decisions, such as let Mr. Krugman get into the Princeton when people think Mr. Krugman is too young at the time. In the end, Mr. Paul Krugman become the most influential economic scholar, a best writer with many hot-selling books, and an one who even won a Nobel Economic Prize. Mr. Bernanke knows how to improve the economy well, he did bring eight million American people back to their jobs. That is a great accomplishment. We should respect it.

  Mr. Bernanke does not agree with people who think those QEs and OTs just take care those people who can access the financial market to get lower cost to run business. Of course, it may seems to be true at the first glance. The reality is it does not show the new consideration on the banking side and those banks do reconsider what they had done before and what those acts had brought them with disasters they can not handle. It is a good thing when the society needs a big overhaul and the society needs some new industries we have not seen yet. It is the reason that we should not take those acts as granted as used to be. It just shows the great transformation of America today. Americans just need a great deal of those kind of things.

  A new nation with larger saving rates and with larger investment in its own education and technology development can go on and on. In old days, Americans speech, we listen. Now, the role is changing from the USA to China. We listen to waht Red China says. Americans needs to catch up again and to reinnovate its own nation once again. It is a road of no turning back, even without a look to the past. American people have to go on and on until you get another six million American people back to their jobs. That is a long term goal you have to be.